According to Reuters, when intelligence officials briefed Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali
Khamenei in May ahead of a snap presidential election, their report was grim, angered by economic hardship and
crackdowns on social freedoms, most Iranians planned to boycott the vote and
turnout would only be about 13%.
It was the time Rahbar decided to plan a carefully orchestrated election, setting the stage
for a little-known but trusted moderate, Massoud Pezeshkian, to rise
to the presidency in a race that would initially be dominated by
hardliners.
Khamenei gathered a
handful of his most trusted advisers to discuss his plan in at least three
meetings in late May at his residence in a fortified compound in Tehram.
The supreme leader
was concerned low turnout would damage the clerical establishment's credibility
and he ordered those present to find a way to steer the election.
The election was
called after President Ebrahim Raisi died in a helicopter crash in
May. His death upset the plans of many fellow hardliners who wanted him to
succeed the 85-year-old Khamenei and triggered a race among hardliners to
influence the selection of the next supreme leader.
The meetings at
Khamenei's residence included a small group of senior officials and security
aides, his close ally and adviser Ali Akbar Velayati, as well as two senior
commanders of the powerful elite Revolutionary Guards
Khamenei's aim was
to preserve the Islamic Republic amid domestic dissent and heightened tensions
with the West and Israel over Gaza, exacerbated by the involvement of Tehran's
allies Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen.
Khamenei believed
Iran needed a president who could appeal to different layers of society, but
would not challenge the ruling Shi'ite theocracy.
Several names were
floated at the second meeting. Khamenei suggested Pezeshkian as a person who
could foster unity among those in power, bridge the gap between the clerical
establishment and the people, and ensure a smooth selection process for the
next supreme leader.
"It was a
flawless plan by the supreme leader ... which guaranteed the survival of the
Islamic Republic," said Tehran-based pro-reform analyst Saeed Laylaz.
"Pezeshkian
will avoid any crisis at home, whether with the nation or the
establishment," Laylaz said. "That will allow top leaders to decide
about the succession and plan it in a calm atmosphere."
The new president
is not expected to usher in any major shift on Iran's nuclear or foreign
policy, or its support for militias in the region, but he will be closely
involved in selecting the successor to Khamenei, who calls the shots on top
state matters.
Pezeshkian's mild
profile would appease disgruntled Iranians, ensure domestic stability amid
mounting foreign pressure, as well as providing Khamenei with a trusted ally in
the eventual succession process.
It is believed that
Pezeshkian's election had been engineered to defuse tensions after a wave of
popular protests sparked by the death in custody of a young woman in 2022 and
stricter curbs on social freedoms imposed by Raisi.
The initial phase
of Khamenei's plan was set in motion when then-lawmaker Pezeshkian - encouraged
by pragmatic former officials with links to the supreme leader's office -
registered to stand in the June 28 election.
It is believed Pezeshkian
was unaware of the behind the scene decisions. He didn't
even expect to be approved by the Guardian Council, an unelected vetting
body of six clerics and six jurists aligned to Khamenei which has banned
many moderate and prominent conservative candidates in the past.
Khamenei's plan was
designed to appear fair and democratic, two prominent hardline candidates,
former nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili and parliament speaker
Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, were approved by the vetting council. That meant hardliner votes would likely be
split between them, making it harder for both to make it to a run-off.
Jalili belongs to
the ultra-hardline camp of Paydari, which advocates tougher social
restrictions, self-reliance, a hawkish foreign policy - and is believed to have
already chosen its candidate to succeed Khamenei, said former Iranian lawmaker
Noureddin Pirmoazen, a reformer now based in the United States.
A win for Jalili,
who opposed the 2015 nuclear deal with world powers, would have sent a negative
signal to the West as it piles pressure on Tehran over its fast-advancing
uranium enrichment programme.
"With the
increased likelihood of Donald Trump's return to the White House ... the
Islamic Republic needed a moderate figure to keep dialogue with the West open
and reduce tensions," said one Western diplomat in the region.
A Guardian Council
spokesman said, "It was a
transparent and impartial election."
A US State
Department spokesperson said,
"We can't speculate on specific theories of what may have transpired
behind the scenes of Iran's recent presidential election. What we can say with
certainty is that elections in Iran are neither free nor fair."
A White House
National Security Council spokesperson said Washington had no expectation the elections would lead to
fundamental change in Iran's direction or more respect for the human rights of
its citizens.
Pezeshkian, who is
an Azeri ethnic minority, won the first round with a core of voters that
analysts said was mostly urban middle class or young - groups widely
disillusioned by years of security crackdowns.
But voter turnout
was just 40%, the lowest for any election in the Islamic Republic, and the
election went to a run-off between Pezeshkian and the fervently anti-Western
Jalili.
Qalibaf, a security
hawk, who has echoed the views of Khamenei on every major issue, such as
backing the power of Islamic clerics, finished third.
Fearing Jalili's
antagonistic domestic and foreign policy, many Iranians who voted for Qalibaf,
or abstained, went for Pezeshkian in the second round on July 05, bumping up the turnover to almost 50% of
Iran's 61 million voters.
Ultimately,
Khamenei's plan achieved the desired outcome.
Pezeshkian, a
69-year-old heart surgeon, backed by reformists, moderate conservatives and
ethnic minorities, won with 54% of the votes.
"I thank the
supreme leader. If it weren't for him, I don't think my name would have easily
come out of ballot boxes," Pezeshkian said on state TV.
Two sources close
to Khamenei said Pezeshkian was referring to an order from the supreme leader
to electoral officials to ensure votes were counted properly. The electoral
authorities said there were no complaints about vote rigging.
Pezeshkian, loyal
to Iran's theocratic rule, has pledged to pursue a pragmatic foreign policy,
ease tensions over now-stalled talks to revive a 2015 nuclear deal with major
powers, and improve prospects for social liberalisation.
He has spoken up
for the rights of women and ethnic minorities and criticized the
establishment's handling of the death of Mahsa Amini, an Iranian Kurdish
woman who died in 2022 while in custody for allegedly violating the Islamic
dress code.
"They arrest a
girl because a few strands of her hair are showing ... and return her dead body
to her family," Pezeshkian said in 2022. "This behaviour is
unacceptable."
However, many
analysts are skeptical about whether Pezeshkian can fulfil all his campaign
promises as he has publicly stated that he has no intention of confronting
Iran's powerful clerics and security hawks.
