Quick end to Wagner insurrection upsets West

A short-lived armed mutiny in Russia was a well thought out and planned operation aiming to take over power in the country, says Russian deputy head of the Security Council Dmitry Medvedev.

When a country backed by the US-led NATO, with upwards of US$100 billion in sophisticated weapon shipments cannot counter Russian forces, it is quite impossible to imagine a single unit succeeding in a coup attempt. 

Life has returned to normal in Russia to the disappointment of NATO and its allies. 

Western media had always referred to Wagner PMC, whose members have been fighting in Ukraine as part of Russia's special military operation as mercenaries.

During the quick mutiny attempt, they were no longer referred to as mercenaries anymore in the Western news narrative, as Yevgeny Prigozhin and some of his forces had switched from battling NATO-backed Ukrainian forces to fighting against the Russian Federation. 

The US news outlets have cited sources as saying US intelligence agencies had known in advance that Prigozhin was planning a major move against the Russian government. 

The US is said to have deliberately avoided informing Russian authorities about the plan in an attempt to see how far Wagner PMC can go to inflict internal strife in Russia. 

Throughout the day of unrest in Russia, not a single drop of blood was shed. 

Many observers are of the belief that Prigozhin had been in touch with foreign intelligence agencies that have been trying to carry out the same mission as Prigozhin, but through other measures, in what Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has called all-out hybrid warfare against his country. 

Western leaders have also been left frustrated as during the attempted coup, Russian military leaders, politicians, senior officials and the public came out in support of Putin and rallied around him in a strong sign of support for the Russian leader. 

Senior Russian officials had warned the West against using the mutiny attempt to advance their Russophobic goals, saying this would prove futile.

Prigozhin, head of the Russian private military company Wagner group, and his aides began the insurrection early on Saturday and ended by night. It was ended in a deal brokered by Belarus. 

The Wagner leader's adventure came to a swift halt following an agreement with the Kremlin, and Prigozhin called off his mutiny plans in return for security guarantees. 

As part of the agreement, it has been reported that Prigozhin has left Russia for Belarus while his Wagner fighters will be absorbed into the Russian military.
The Russian Federal Security Service has also dropped a criminal case over charges of a call for an armed rebellion.

Prigozhin ended the mutiny with the knowledge that his Wagner unit was heavily outmatched by the Russian military. His mission against Russia was similar to that of the US-led NATO military alliance, which has so far sent about US$100 billion worth of weapons to Ukraine to fight Russia. 

The armed contractors, who take their military orders from the commander of chief of the Russian armed forces, managed to seize several army headquarters in the southern Russian border city of Rostov-on-Don, while others forces tried to make their way to Moscow.

Sergey Surovikin, the deputy commander of the Russian joint forces in Moscow's special military operation, called on Wagner PMC to comply with President Putin’s order and to resolve all issues peacefully.

Wagner PMC has been leading the fight for the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut, in what has been the longest and deadliest battle between Russian and Ukrainian forces since the conflict erupted in February 2021.

Some analysts believe it showed the combat expertise that the Wagner armed forces lacked by stretching out the battle for too long and allowing Ukraine the time to carefully plan for its counter-offensive. 

Prigozhin began the attempted mutiny by claiming that his forces had been hit with an airstrike, accusing the Russian military leadership of killing members of his unit in Ukraine with the air attack. He failed to present any evidence to back up his allegation. Medvedev described the accusation as nonsense. 

The former Russian President pointed out that given the high degree of the attempted mutiny's preparedness, the professional coordination of action and the quality management of troop movements, it is possible to speak of a thought-out military plan and the participation in the mutiny of the individuals who earlier served in the elite units of the Russian Armed Forces or, quite possibly, of foreign specialists as well. 

Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov told journalists that an agreement was reached that PMC Wagner troops would return to their camps and places of deployment. Some of them, if they wish to do so, can later ink contracts with the Defense Ministry," Peskov said. "It also applies to fighters, who decided against taking part in this armed mutiny”.

"They have even requested the assistance of the traffic police as well as other help to return to their permanent places of deployment," Peskov added in remarks published by TASS.

Over the past six months, Prigozhin had been building a feud with Russia's Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu and Russia's chief of the general staff Valery Gerasimov. 

Putin had called on the businessman behind Wagner to settle any of his differences in a peaceful manner. Prigozhin chose the opposite, and that has raised eyebrows about what his true intentions had been and who was acting behind him.

A convoy of his forces crossed the border from the battlefield in Ukraine to a Russian border city, at one point taking full control of it, before the Russian military swiftly regained authority. 

His units have no aircrafts so there was no chance of success by his armed mutiny. The Russian military could have wiped out all his forces when they crossed the border, with Moscow enjoying powerful air superiority. 

Since the conflict in Ukraine, officials in Kyiv have repeatedly complained about a lack of advanced warplanes to match Russia's Air Force. 

 

Israel needs to do more against settlers committing violence, says Blinken

Israel needs to do more to counter violence by settlers against Palestinians, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken told Foreign Minister Eli Cohen in a phone call on Tuesday.

Blinken said the US appreciates messages from Cohen, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant against the violent incidents that took place over the weekend, but that more action must be taken.

Blinken's call came after repeated arson and other attacks by Jewish extremists on Palestinian villages last weekend, in apparent revenge for recent deadly Palestinian terror attacks on Israelis. The heads of the IDF, police and Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency) called the incidents nationalist terror.

Cohen said that the government of Israel fully condemns events in which citizens take the law into their own hands.

The escalation of violence in the West Bank comes from “proxies of the Iranian Ayatollahs regime,” Cohen stated. “Iran is directing terrorism across the Middle East, from Lebanon to Syria, via Iraq and Yemen, to Hamas and Islamic Jihad.

Cohen also called on the international community to act aggressively and unequivocally to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon, which would be a danger to the world and mark the start of a regional nuclear arms race.

Cohen and Blinken also discussed the possibility of Israel establishing diplomatic relations with more Arab and Muslim countries, and a new date for the foreign ministers’ meeting of the Negev Forum.

The Negev Forum gathers the US, Israel and the Arab states with which Israel has peace, except for Jordan, to discuss multilateral matters, including security. A foreign ministers’ meeting set to take place in Morocco this year has been postponed multiple times, in part because of the Israeli government’s policies in Judea and Samaria.

“Expanding the circle of normalization and peace in the Middle East, led by the US, will advance the entire region and bring security, growth and stability,” Cohen said. “We will continue to act to build and strengthen our relations with additional countries in the Middle East and beyond.”

Cohen also expressed his appreciation for departing US Ambassador Tom Nides, who ends his tenure in Israel at the end of June.

The State Department did not release a readout of the call by press time.

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World leading currencies out of sync

Leading global currencies are rarely on different paths. Yet Japan's yen and China's yuan are slumping against the US dollar, while in Europe the euro is outperforming and sterling is on a tear, says a Reuters report.

"We've got a one in a 100 years pandemic and once in 75 years war and a once in 25 years energy crisis all thrown into the mix together," said SocGen's Juckes. "You’ve got to be 120 years old to have any understanding of this."

With economic and monetary policy outlooks varying, currency moves are increasingly out of sync with each other. This is making the US$7.5 trillion a day global FX market - operating in the aftermath of COVID-19 and the face of war in Ukraine and an energy crisis - more volatile and more unpredictable.

"It used to be the case that if you got the direction of euro/dollar right, you had a good chance of getting everything else right, but now it's a bit harder," said Nomura's G10 FX strategist Jordan Rochester.

The differences between currencies are widening.

Last year alone, the euro fell to a 20-year low versus the US dollar, sterling hit its lowest on record and the yen its weakest in 32 years, as the greenback soared broadly on sharp increases in US interest rates to curb inflation that other major central banks lagged.

The Bank of Japan has dashed expectations that a change to its ultra-dovish monetary policy would come early in 2023, sending the Japanese yen down 9% so far this year, on top of a 12% decline in 2022. That has raised the chance of intervention to stem weakness.

More pain is also anticipated for the yuan, trading near seven-month lows, as well as smaller Asian currencies.

Meanwhile the euro is up 2.5% this month against the US dollar and expected to rise further given a hawkish European Central Bank - and sterling has meanwhile risen over 5% so far in 2023, leaving it set for its biggest annual gain since 2017.

Rochester said Nomura forecast the euro moving to US$1.12 over coming months, implying a further 2% gain from US$1.095 now, and expected the yuan to weaken to 7.30 per dollar versus 7.2 now.

The yuan has slid almost 5% so far this year, hurt by a weak economy and a wide interest-rate gap with the United States.

This week Chinese authorities set a stronger than expected trading band for the currency, a sign that Beijing is increasingly uncomfortable with its quickening slide.

Lee Hardman, senior FX strategist at MUFG, said the dollar's rebound against Asian currencies reflected a reversal of the trades put in place late last year with the post lockdown reopening of China's economy, as pessimism about the growth outlook there grew.

Elsewhere the dollar is not performing as well. It's continuing to weaken against some European currencies and also Latin American currencies.

Hardman said that, as market volatility slows compared to recent years, investors were focusing more on carry trades, exploiting the variances in interest rates and monetary cycles between different central banks.

Kit Juckes, head of FX strategy at Societe Generale, said the focus on monetary policy differences was also a result of uncertainties elsewhere.

"What strikes me at the moment about FX markets is they are more short-term interest rate sensitive than I can remember them being.

"Because we are so uncertain about so many things in this most unusual of economic cycles, we're just going to focus on what the next central bank policy move is."

This is not good news for the yen, near seven-month lows against the US dollar and 15-year lows versus the euro, as the Bank of Japan holds fast to its ultra-loose monetary policy.

Of course given what the world has endured in the past few years, it is maybe not surprising that currency markets have gone a little strange.

 

West Bank rockets from lone wolf, not Hamas

The rockets fired by a Palestinian in the Jenin area of the West Bank on Monday and which failed to fly beyond the launch area were launched by a lone wolf and not by Hamas, The Jerusalem Post has reported.

This confirmed finding comes despite Hamas' claims that it was linked to the incident and despite the fact that the IDF has not yet revealed who launched the rocket.

Further, the Post understands that the IDF does not regard the launching of the two rockets (both which lacked any explosive materials and flew less than 100 meters from the launch site) as a major new threat of its own. 

Rather, the IDF believes its past and ongoing actions to eliminate Palestinian Islamic Jihad officials who were trying to build more sustained and systematic rocket firing capabilities on Israel have been and will continue to be successful.

West Bank rocket launches were a TikTok incident, not a serious threat

In addition, the IDF views the incident as being primarily a TikTok incident, or an exercise in public relations not all that different from the dummy rocket that the IDF recently found.

The IDF is even disappointed in the media depiction of the rocket launches as a serious threat, as this depiction may have achieved other terror groups' broad goals of creating fear and instability among the general population.

In contrast, the IDF is extremely concerned by the recent succession of Hamas and other terror organizations shooting attacks in places like Eli, Hermesh and against the Dee family.

The IDF absolutely views these incidents as a dangerous escalation which could get out of hand.

After all of these IDF perspectives, the fact is that in 2005 terror groups succeeded in firing multiple rockets from the West Bank and Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency) director Ronen Bar warned of the threat as a serious one in recent months.

 

Muslims urged to hold fast to unity

Eminent Saudi Scholar and Member of the Council of Senior Scholars Sheikh Youssef Bin Muhammad Bin Saeed urged the faithful not to be carried away by malicious campaigns and rumors.

Delivering the Arafat sermon at the Namirah Mosque here on Tuesday, Sheikh Bin Saeed said that the Islamic Shariah forbade Muslims from following rumors and disinformation that aim to divide their ranks.

“The believers are warned against malicious campaigns in all their forms and manifestations, aimed at dividing their ranks and inciting one group against another,” he said in the sermon.

Sheikh Bin Saeed called on the pilgrims to hold fast to unity and eschew discord.

He emphasized that the difference in languages, colors and ethnicities does not justify falling into discords and divisions. Rather, it is a sign from the signs of God in this universe.

Sheikh Bin Saeed noted that the Islamic texts reaffirm the command for unity, love, harmony, and prohibit disputes, divisions, and differences.

“The Prophet (peace be upon him) has commanded his followers to be united and cooperative, and prohibited them from discords and conflicts. Thus, through him, Allah has united his followers' hearts,” he said.

Sheikh Bin Saeed warned, “When unity is broken, personal whims and animosities prevail, and intentions become conflicting, resulting in the shedding of forbidden blood.”

Underscoring the significance of holding fast to unity and closing ranks, the preacher said that the Hand of Allah is with the collective body of Muslims (Jamaa’h) while Satan is with those who separate themselves from the Jamaa’h.

The significance of unity becomes apparent through the negative consequences of division and differences, affecting individuals, families, and societies, he emphasized.

“From this standpoint, Islam has implemented appropriate preventative measures and robust defensive strategies to halt the influence of destructive intentions and acts of sabotage that aim to tear apart communities.

“It does that by erecting a resilient barrier that inhibits the disintegration of its structure and the destabilization of its pillars, at the individual, familial, societal, national, and even global levels,” he said while reminding that God has commanded the Muslims, in times of dispute, to return back to the Holy Qur'an and the Sunnah (Tradition of the Prophet).

God has commanded them to maintain good conduct, interact with one another in an exemplary manner, and demonstrate compassion and mercy towards one another.

“In order to achieve the objective of unifying our word, Islam has emphasized the importance of strengthening social, familial, and spiritual bonds.

“It commanded us to uphold ties of kinship, and clarified the rights of spouses, parents, children, and daughters. Likewise, it commanded us to show kindness and goodness to relatives, neighbors, and the needy,” he said.

He also pointed out that Islam came to remind those who are in conflict with their brothers to reconcile and encourage them towards rectification in times of disputes.

Underscoring the need to stand united, Sheikh Bin Saeed made the pilgrims aware of the fact that God has prescribed several collective acts of obedience, such as the pilgrims’ gathering today on the plains of Arafat and their congregational prayers on Fridays.

“One of the means to foster unity is the social solidarity mandated by Islam, which includes the payment of Zakat and other charitable contributions, establishment of trusts, and giving of voluntary alms,” he said.

Sheikh Bin Saeed’s sermon focused on the universal message of Islam, underlined by the Prophet in his farewell Hajj.

He quoted the following Tradition of the Prophet in this regard, “O people! Indeed, your Lord is One. Your father (Adam) is one. No Arab has superiority over a non-Arab, nor does a non-Arab have superiority over an Arab. Similarly, no white person is superior to a black person, nor is a black person superior to a white person, except by piety. I have certainly conveyed the message. Indeed, God has made inviolable between yourselves your blood, your wealth, your honor just as He has made this day of yours inviolable, in this inviolable land of yours and in this inviolable month of yours.”

OPEC Plus oil quota reform increases dominance of gulf producers

Saudi Arabian Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman earlier this month outlined one of the biggest reforms at OPEC in recent years and presented it as a reward for countries that invest in their oil industry.

The change clears the way for giving larger production quotas to OPEC Gulf members such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait at the expense of African nations such as Nigeria and Angola.

Production quotas and baselines, from which production cuts are calculated, have been a sensitive subject within OPEC for decades as most producers want a higher quota so they can earn more from oil exports.

The shake-up is likely to become more extreme in the next few years as Middle Eastern state oil majors ramp up investments while production falls in African nations that have struggled to attract foreign investment.

Gulf producers, the holders of the little spare capacity in the global oil market, have long dominated OPEC.

Their power and influence has already increased in the last 15 years with their rising capacity, while African production has fallen as foreign investments have shrunk.

Unlike Gulf producers, African producers rely heavily on investment from international oil companies. Those companies have shunned Africa in recent years in favour of investment in the US shale patch and in prolific giant oilfields elsewhere such as offshore Brazil and Guyana.

In May, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Kuwait's share of total OPEC production was over 10% higher than it was 15 years ago at 55%, according to OPEC production figures. Nigeria and Angola's total share over the same period has shrunk by over 3% to below 9%.

For Nigeria, capacity continues to be restricted by operational and security issues, combined with low investment levels, leading to decline, analysts at consultancy Wood Mackenzie said.

New field developments and recent discoveries in Angola will not be enough to stem long term capacity declines, they added.

In contrast, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have plans in place to significantly boost their production capacity to 13 million bpd and 5 million bpd, respectively, by 2027 from current levels of about 12 and 4 million.

Fellow Gulf producer Kuwait on June 18 said it would boost its production capacity by 200,000 bpd by 2025 to reach 3 million bpd.

Capacity additions from the three Gulf countries over the 2020-25 period total a combined 1.2 million bpd, double the capacity that Nigeria and Angola are projected to lose over the same period, Reuters calculations find.

The two West African countries have lost nearly a quarter of their production capacity since 2019 as a result of underinvestment and security issues.

At its June 04 meeting, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, led by Russia, (OPEC+) overhauled production quotas for the majority of its members.

"In the final analysis what this agreement will achieve for all of us is that those who invest, not this year, but the years to come, 2024 and 2025 and moving forward, there will be a recognition for their investment," Prince Abdulaziz said.

While the majority of members of OPEC Plus got a lower production target, the UAE's was higher.

Richard Bronze, Head of Geopolitics at Energy Aspects, said one of the reasons behind the change was to address OPEC's previous credibility issues when policy changes were not necessarily reflected on oil markets.

"It meant that the actual supply increase or decrease resulting for a quota change would be far smaller than the announced figure, fuelling doubts in the market about the ability of the group to manage market fundamentals," he said.

 

 

Three scenarios surrounding Wagner mutiny

While the western analysts are offering all sorts of rationales, our readers are suggested to also consider three likely scenarios about the rebellion of Wagner's forces against the Russian army.

1- A possible deception plan by the Russian intelligence apparatus with the aim of diverting and draining the power and energy of enemy intelligence organizations as well as rival countries. In this case, the difference in the media narrative will deepen, some local operational tension will intensify, but from a functional point of view, the tension will not elevate to a strategic level.

2- Loyalty is what separates the Wagner unit and the Minister of Defense and the Chief of General Staff of the Russian Army. The former may be fake, the latter close to realty. In this case, based on the Russian approach and security-defense strategy, Prigozhin and his loyalists will be dealt with gradually but decisively.

3- A NATO-backed intelligence operation with the aim of disintegrating and weakening Russian forces. Prigozhin has coordinated with a foreign party. In this context, Wagner’s declared dispute is about greater loyalty to Russia, the effectiveness and efficiency of existing Russian defense and security approaches.

Any relationship with a Russian adversary will not flourish because it will highlight betrayal to Russia in alliance with an enemy.

This will lead to the collapse among the ranks of Wagner's forces. Part of NATO's goal will be achieved, but at the end of the day, it will consolidate Russia's defense and security superiority.

The important point is that Wagner, which is strongly dependent on the Russian defense sector, at least in the field of ammunition and logistics in the battlefield, will not be able to resist the Russia's powerful military.