United States faces looming threat of civil war

With the November midterm elections in the United States just a week away, there are growing fears the country could slip into a civil war. These are views being expressed by officials and people inside the US, which is witnessing division and polarization not seen since the 1960s.

There is certainly no lack of ammunition on the streets of the United States for a civil war to break out. The United States, which has constantly interfered in the internal affairs of other sovereign countries, with the aim of splitting those nations, causing sedition, riots or creating other forms of confrontation, now faces the bitter reality of its own possible civil war.

Experts say the ideology and hatred that has been spread by members of Congress and also spearheaded by ex-President Donald Trump has always been in the minds and souls of many Americans. All that Trump did, during rhetorical speeches, was to promote extremist ideology, particularly among his hardcore supporters.

The ‘Dis-United States of America’ as some US media outlets and scholars refer to, is plunging America into unknown territory. The insurrection on Capitol Hill on January 06, 2021 when Trump supporters were told by the ex-president to fight like hell to overturn his defeat by Joe Biden attempted to stop the certification of electoral results led to nine deaths, including suicides among police officers.

Since then, fears of civil war have grown. The hardcore Trump supporters are furious that their president not only lost the presidential election but also saw the FBI raid his home in Florida in search of secret documents.

Death threats have been made against FBI agents, while reports of violence among supporters of the Republican and Democratic parties have been emerging. This is while the term ‘civil war’ has gone viral on social media platforms amid the intense social and political disagreements in the country. The FBI and the Department of Homeland Security are said to be taking the threats very seriously.

The internal discussions in the US over a new civil war are on the rise and mostly revolve over concerns and anxieties among Americans about the number of crises the country is facing. Topping the agenda is the deep division between Republicans and Democrats as well as among supporters of the two camps, especially with an election looming.

Apart from the widening political polarization, there is social division and economic hardships that could make some Americans even more radical.

Developments in the US and Europe, over the past decade or two, strongly indicate that during times of economic hardship, which Americans are facing as a result of the Ukraine war, make people with radical extremist ideologies take their anger out at those who oppose their political views or minority groups.

Americans are currently facing many challenges, including mass shootings, inflation, racial and gender inequality, rising crime rates, drug abuse, climate change and immigration among other issues.   

In late August this year, a survey revealed that more than two-fifths of Americans believe civil war is at least somewhat likely in the next 10 years. The figure increased to more than half among those who self-identified themselves as strong Republicans. In the poll by YouGov and the Economist, 65% of all respondents said political violence had increased since the start of 2021.

Barbara F. Walter, a professor at the University of California and author of the book “How Civil Wars Start: And How to Stop Them”, has conducted research for the CIA on how countries slide into civil war and says that the United States meets many of the criteria her group identified. She has also warned that the US is coming dangerously close to those conditions that give rise to a civil war.

According to a recent Time article, "41% of Biden voters and 52% of Trump voters polled favor red or blue states seceding from the Union to form their own separate country, with 30% of Republicans and 11% of Democrats ready to resort to violence to save the country."

To put that into perspective, there are some 20 million Americans in the Country who are prepared to take up arms and exchange bullets on the streets of America in order to divide the country into two.

In October, the New York Times quoted a data entry specialist as expressing concern that something will happen around the November elections that will be akin to January 06, 2022 but much more violent, where armed protest groups from both sides of the political spectrum come to blows.

There is no shortage of guns in the US for that scenario to take place. The country has more than 400 million firearms in the hands of its citizens. There are more guns on the streets of the United States than there are people.

In an interview last month, historian Jon Meacham, who has aided US President Joe Biden in a speechwriter capacity, said the US is at a greater risk of civil conflict than during the Great Depression.

There are also strong disagreements on political issues such as gun control among the supporters of the two parties that dominate the US political system. Experts say there is a lack of initiatives to bring these differences closer together to calm down supporters of the two parties, which could potentially plunge the country into violence.

"At the moment there seems to be no program for resolving the differences. Both parties seem to be largely controlled by their more radical elements, making bridge-building very difficult, if not impossible," William Jones, the Washington bureau chief for the Executive Intelligence Review, told the Global Times.

While many believe the Republicans are the party of white supremacy, some maintain that Democrats are actually the party of white supremacy, as they were in the 19th and part of the 20th century, and that Democrats hate and want to destroy their own country. Tudor Dixon, the Republican nominee who ran for governor of Michigan in the summer of 2020 made these remarks to US news outlet CNN:

“The country today is divided, and this was the plan. It’s been in the works for years. The idea that you can topple the greatest country in the world, but to topple a country like the United States of America, you must be planning this for decades,” said Dixon. “Why wouldn’t that come from the party that lost the Civil War? The party that wanted to own people because they viewed them as less than human? Do you think that the Democrats are losing to the north?”

Americans are in possession of 393.3 million weapons, according to a 2018 report by the Small Arms Survey, a Geneva-based organization. This is more than the country’s population now of about 330 million. The number of guns has most certainly grown after Americans went on a record gun buying spree beginning in 2020 amid the Covid pandemic. The National Instant Criminal Background Check System, which the FBI collects and is widely used as a proxy for firearms purchases, jumped 40% in 2020 from the previous year to 39.7 million. That number was slightly down to 38.9 million checks in 2021.

 

US Fed hikes interest rates by 75 basis points for fourth time this year

The US Federal Reserve on Wednesday hiked interest rates by three-quarters of a percentage point, pressing even harder on the brakes of the economy in a scramble to slow inflation.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the panel of Fed officials responsible for monetary policy, boosted the central bank’s baseline interest rate range to a span of 3.75 to 4 percent. It is the fourth consecutive 75 basis point hike issued by the Fed and sixth interest rate increase since March.

As the Fed raises its baseline interest rate range, interest rates on mortgages, credit cards, and other loans rise as well. Higher borrowing costs tend to slow the economy as households and businesses have less money to spend on goods and services.

The Fed’s latest hike will add even more financial pressure to a resilient but slowing US economy that some experts believe is on the precipice of recession.

The Fed’s rapid interest rate hikes have caused home sales to collapse and pushed businesses to pull back investment, two major forces that could slow the US economy. Higher Fed interest rates also deepen economic turmoil abroad, which could boomerang on the US.

Inflation has remained stubbornly high as a strong US job market helps support consumer spending and supply shocks — particularly the war in Ukraine — push prices for food and fuel higher. Prices rose 6.2% over the past 12 months, according to the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.

The Fed has faced growing pressure from some policymakers, especially Democratic lawmakers, to slow down its rate hike campaign amid growing signs of a looming recession. 

Critics of the Fed’s approach argue the bank will needlessly drive millions into unemployment by ignoring clear signs of inflation falling, the lagging effect of Fed interest rate hikes and the bank’s inability to solve supply snarls.

Fed leaders, however, have insisted for months that they will continue to boost interest rates until inflation shows signs of falling toward the bank’s annual 2 percent target. 

 

 

Elpi Petraki elected WISTA President

Elpi Petraki has been elected as the new President of WISTA International (Women's International Shipping and Trading Association).

Petraki from WISTA Hellas, and also Operations, Chartering & Business Development Manager at ENEA Management, was elected on 26 October at WISTA’s Agm in Geneva.

The nominees for the position of President were Petraki and Alexandra Anagnostis-Irons, WISTA USA.

Commenting on her election Petraki said, "I am truly honoured to have been elected as President of WISTA International. Diversity and inclusion in maritime have never been in the spotlight like today and whilst much has been achieved in recent times, there is still a great deal to be done. WISTA International has a powerful voice that must be heard, continuing to raise awareness for the incredible contribution women make to the industry.”

She said she looked forward to working with WISTA’s 56 national associations on issues such as decarburization, digitalization and attracting new talent and providing equal and equitable opportunities for all.

Outgoing WISTA Despina Theodosiou, said, "After five years, the time has come for me to hang up my hat as President of WISTA International. First, I'd like to say a huge thank you to the other members of the WISTA International Executive Committee, who have provided a tremendous amount of support over the years. Secondly, I'd like to express my sincere gratitude to the Presidents of the 56 National WISTA Associations for entrusting me to continue to deliver WISTA's mission. It has been a pleasure to work with you all.”

Elpi Petraki – President of WISTA Hellas and Operations, Chartering & Business Development Manager, ENEA Management Inc., has been announced as the latest Ambassador of the growing Seatrade Maritime Club in September this year.

As the Seatrade Maritime Club ambassador from Greece, Elpi joins ambassadors from Cyprus, the UAE, Singapore, the Americas and Isle of Man who are helping pave the way for the global club to grow geographically and fulfil its objective to bring together senior management from the ship-owning community eager to tackle the challenges facing the industry and proactively drive positive change.

Commenting on the appointments, Emma Howell, Director of Digital, Seatrade Maritime said, “We could not be more delighted to have Elpi on board with us.  She is a well-known personality in shipping, both in Greece and internationally, and an active member of the shipping community. Elpi regularly speaks at industry conferences and events on a wide range of topics, from diversity in maritime and attracting the next generation of talent, to decarburization, new technologies and how to address the challenges facing the industry. “

Elpi has been working for ENEA Management Inc. for the last 24 years, a Greek shipping company that manages a fleet of small sized, clean and specialized tankers.  During this time, she has been involved in various parts of the business, with a primary focus on both operations and chartering of its fleet as well as business development.

Serving as the 2nd Vice President of the Hellenic Shortsea Shipowners Association (HSSA), Elpi is involved in the promotion and the overall development of short sea shipping within National and European borders. Additionally, Elpi is a member of the Board of Directors for the Hellenic Chamber of Shipping and is an active member of Intertanko. Most recently, Elpi was invited to be an Honorary Fellow of the Institute of Chartered Shipbrokers, the highest honour to be bestowed by the institute in recognition of an individual's contribution to commercial shipping.

As well as current President of WISTA Hellas, Elpi is also a member of the Board of the Hellenic Maritime Museum, assisting in the preservation of maritime history and the development of a culture whereby younger generations are exposed to and come to appreciate maritime and naval traditions.

 

 

 

Taiwanese TS Lines to list IPO at Hong Kong

According to Seatrade Maritime News, Taiwan-based TS Lines is planning for Initial Public Offerings (IPO) at Hong Kong Stock Exchange for supporting fleet expansion and business development.

As of June 30, 2022, TS Lines’ container shipping network covered a total of 22 countries and regions, 56 major ports and 45 services globally, having an extensive network in the Asia region market. The IPO would fund its continued expansion in the region, including the Greater Bay Area of which Hong Kong is part of.

“We believe that our high-frequency services provide our customers with greater flexibility to manage their logistics needs and stronger capability to achieve faster inventory turnover. We have established a long-term presence in the Greater Bay Area, which we view as instrumental to our future development in the Asia region market and in which we also see significant opportunities for sustained profitable growth in the future,” TS Lines said.

TS Lines is continuing to expand its fleet capacity to support growth plans in the Asia region market and selected long-haul services. The company had ordered 22 vessels including 16 vessels ranging from 1,100 to 2,900 teu and six 7,000 teu vessels, which are expected to be delivered between November 2022 and November 2024. 

As of 30 June the company had a total of 52 vessels, consisting of 26 owned vessels and 26 chartered vessels, with a total capacity of 107,907 teu. The majority of its fleet consists of small sized vessels each with capacity of less than 2,000 teu, which are able to access most ports in the Asia region and are more flexible in deployment than larger vessels. 

In August this year, TS Lines has placed an order at Fujian Mawei Shipbuilding for the construction of four boxships. The four 1,100 teu containerships, designed by Shanghai Ship Design and Research Institute (SDARI), are the latest version containership for China-Japan shipping routes. 

The vessels will have 147.9 metres length and 23.25 metres width, having a carrying capacity of 1,140 twenty-foot containers. TS Lines has been expanding fleet capacity since last year, and the company is expected to have a self-owned fleet of over 40 vessels by 2024.

 

Israel: Netanyahu poised for comeback

Former Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appeared well placed to return to power as exit polls following Tuesday's election showed his right-wing bloc heading for a narrow majority lifted by a strong showing from his far-right allies.

Israel's longest-serving premier, on trial over corruption charges which he denies, was poised to take a narrow majority of 61 or 62 of the Knesset's 120 seats, according to Israeli television exit polls.

"It's a good start," Netanyahu, 73, said in a video broadcast by Israeli public broadcaster Kan 11, but added that exit polls were not the real count.

A final result is not expected until later in the week and wrangling broke out immediately with Netanyahu's Likud party warning of possible attempts to falsify the results.

Israel's fifth election in less than four years exasperated many voters, but turnout was reported at the highest levels since 2015.

The campaign was shaken up by firebrand West Bank settler Itamar Ben-Gvir and his ultra-nationalist Religious Zionism list, now poised to be the third-largest party in parliament after surging in from the political margins.

"The time has come that we go back to being in charge of our country!" Ben-Gvir said in a speech punctuated by chants of "Death to Terrorists" from hundreds of cheering supporters.

Netanyahu's record 12-year consecutive reign ended in June 2021 when centrist Yair Lapid and his coalition partner Naftali Bennett managed to stitch together an alliance that included an Arab party for the first time.

Security on the streets and soaring prices topped the list of voter concerns in a campaign triggered by defections from Prime Minister Lapid's unlikely ruling coalition of right-wing, liberal and Arab parties.

The campaign was dominated by the outsized personality of Netanyahu, whose legal battles have fed the stalemate blocking Israel's political system since he was indicted on bribery, fraud and breach of trust charges in 2019.

Lapid's camp was poised to take 54-55 seats, with his There Is a Future party coming in second-largest in parliament, according to the polls.

Speaking to supporters at his party headquarters, Lapid stopped short of conceding the election and said he will wait until the final results were in.

"We have no intention to stop," Lapid said. "We will continue to fight for Israel to be a Jewish and democratic, liberal and progressive state."

He campaigned on his stewardship of the economy as well as diplomatic advances with countries including Lebanon and Turkey. But it was not enough to stop the right.

The result, however, left Netanyahu depending on support from Ben-Gvir and fellow far-right leader Bezalel Smotrich, who have moderated some extreme anti-Arab positions but still call for anyone deemed disloyal to Israel to be expelled.

The prospect of a government including Ben-Gvir, a former member of Kach, a group on Israeli and US terrorist watch-lists, and who was once convicted for racist incitement, risks alarming allies including Washington.

It also reinforced Palestinian scepticism that a political solution to the conflict was likely after a campaign which unrolled against a backdrop of increasing violence in the occupied West Bank, with near-daily raids and clashes.

"The election results proved what we already know, that we have no peace partner in Israel," Palestinian Prime Minister Mohammad Shtayyeh said in a statement.

The outcome could be affected by whether or not Balad, a small Arab party, gets over the threshold for entry into parliament, which could shake up the distribution of seats and potentially thwart Netanyahu.

The Central Elections Committee said it had found no sign of any manipulation and said there was no basis to rumours of supposed fraud.

 

Iran-Russia ink 4 cooperation documents

Iran and Russia have signed four documents for cooperation in a variety of areas at the end of the two countries’ 16th Joint Economic Committee meeting in Russia on Tuesday, Shana reported.

The strategic document for the development of bilateral relations between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Russian Federation was signed by Iranian Oil Minister Javad Oji and Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, who co-chaired the meeting.

A loan MoU was also signed between Iran’s Deputy Minister of Finance and Economic Affairs Ali Fekri and Vladimir Ilyichev, Russia’s deputy economy minister for the signaling of the Incheh Borun-Garmsar railway project. 

Meanwhile, a bilateral memorandum was also signed by Mohammad-Hossein Niknam, Director General International Cooperation at Iran’s Ministry of Health and Medical Education, and Russia’s Deputy Minister of Health Sergey Glagolov for cooperation in the field of health and medical education.

Also, another MoU was signed between an Iranian and a Russian holding for the implementation of EPC projects for product transfer pipelines.

Speaking at the opening ceremony of the event, Oji said that the Iranian Oil Ministry, as the body in charge of the Iran-Russia Joint Economic Committee, will not only take all the necessary measures to expand strategic cooperation between the two sides in the energy sector, but it will also support the cooperation between all Iranian and Russian ministries, organizations, institutions, and companies.

He underlined the need for establishing extensive banking cooperation between the two countries for creating a suitable and reliable payment mechanism in order to facilitate mutual trade and investment, as well as swapping energy carriers, especially gas, crude oil, and petroleum products.

The minister said that the expansion of cooperation between Iran and Russia will make international sanctions against the two countries ineffective.

Oji also called for the mutual acceptance of the standard systems of the two countries with the aim of developing trade, and exchange of agricultural products, including the import of grain from Russia and the export of tropical agricultural products to Russia.

The Iranian oil minister underlined the capacities of Iran and Russia in different areas and the sanctions targeting both countries, expressing hope that the signed MoUs and agreements in the meeting will lead to a positive expansion of economic relations between the two countries.

Emphasizing that all the agreements reached and discussed in the 16th Joint Economic Committee of Iran and Russia are actually based on the topics agreed upon by the presidents of the two countries, he said, "The Iranian Oil Ministry will use all its power to follow up on the agreements reached in this meeting because we believe that these agreements are a blueprint for the solid structure of cooperation between the two countries.”

The minister stressed that holding the 16th meeting of the Joint Economic Committee of the two countries will bring good results, saying, “In the future, the level of relations between the two countries will increase day by day, especially in the economic field.”

Oil tanker market soars

As the cliché goes, “the tanker sector is on fire.” Charter hires have reached stratospheric levels on the back of longer voyages for crude oil and for refined products, as well as small and large gas carriers.

The team at Deutsche Bank - Amit Mehrotra and Charles Robertson, who has recently joined - put it nicely, “Looking ahead, we expect continued strength in the tanker segment into next year, especially in light of upcoming EU sanctions against Russian crude and refined oil products imports. We believe minimal fleet supply growth coupled with expanding ton-mile demand for tankers will result in stronger rates for coming quarters.”

An important index of tanker health is the Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (BTDI), which has surged from just under 1,500 points to over 1,800 points during October. Researchers at tanker broker Poten have pegged period hires for economical VLCCs at US$47,500 per day for one year, end 2023, and US$39,000 per day (end 2024) for two year periods. Spot hires for VLCC’s in the BTDI, for AG to Far East were estimated to be north of US$70,000 per day

The listed equities have responded in kind. International Seaways, which the Deutsche Bank analysts had placed a target of US$40 per share on around October 10, 2022, when they began coverage, has been a standout. With INSW having now reached above this target in less than three weeks after starting to follow it, the analysts have now moved the target up to US$50 per share, based on cash flow estimates for 2023- 2024 being revised upwards. Each new pricing pinnacle represents an all-time-high for the tanker owner, with its previous highs set in early 2020 at around US$30 per share.

Importantly, the Mehrotra/Robertson duo say, “We believe INSW shares are now trading above net asset value (NAV).” Other owners have also noted the owner’s strength. Besides a prescient investment in INSW by Frontline in late April, which has now nearly doubled in value, investors tied to insiders Ofer and Navig8 both took stakes during October.

The potential for dramatic increases in demand for handling Russian oil export oil movements is bolstering tanker optimism as origins and destinations begin a big pivot in the wake of sanctions, and, possibly, price caps on oil moving out of Russia.

One extreme trade-rearrangement boosting ton miles, cited by one news service contemplated that oil from eastern Russia was being supplanted, in the case of several cargoes recently fixed hauling Brazilian crude into China.

Once the sanctions begin, observers expect that what’s euphemistically known as the fleet of shadow tankers or dark tankers will haul at least a portion, but not all, of the Russian crude to buyers, complemented by owners staying out of the European Union trades.

Analysts at shipbroker Braemar who looked at projected export volumes against available Russian and Russian-trading tankers still came up with a deficit. Their calculations suggest a shortfall of 110 tankers (mainly Aframaxes and Suezmaxes) needed to haul Russian crude if volumes remain around 3.5 million barrels per day. Brokers Gibson, while not putting a number on needed vessels echoed a similar notion of a shortage, and, said that if the Russian trading fleet is undersupplied, which would drive increased S & P activity and potential support secondhand values even higher.

While the optimism is raging now savvy players are taking money off the table. Besides tanker owners entering into period charters to lock in the highs, at least one large INSW shareholder has been cashing out. Regulatory filings show that entities linked to Craig Stevenson, a Director of INSW, who headed up Diamond-S, which was merged into INSW last year, had sold a large block of owned shares though still maintaining a substantial holding. Stevenson was heading up the old OMI Corp, which sold its fleet for US$2.2 billion, divided between Teekay and Torm, in 2007, at the height of a previous tanker boom.