Today Reuters has released the news saying that slowing US inflation may
have opened the door for the Federal Reserve to temper the pace of interest rate
hikes, but policymakers have no doubt that the central banks will continue to
tighten monetary policy until price pressures are fully broken.
If rates are
raised around the world, Pakistan can’t remain an exception.
A US Labor Department report on Wednesday indicated that
consumer prices didn't rise at all in July as compared to June. The
policymakers believe it would be a long process, with a red-hot job market and
suddenly buoyant equity prices suggesting the economy needs more of the cooling
that would come from higher borrowing costs.
The Fed is far, far away from declaring victory on
inflation, Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari said at the
Aspen Ideas Conference, despite the "welcome" news in the CPI report.
Kashkari said he hasn't "seen anything that changes the
need to raise the Fed's policy rate to 3.9% by year-end and to 4.4% by the end
of 2023. The rate is currently hovering between 2.25% to 2.5% range.
To be sure, Kashkari is the Fed's most hawkish member; most
of his 18 colleagues believe a little less policy tightening may be enough to
do the trick to bring prices under better control.
San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, in an interview with
the Financial Times, also warned it is far too early for the US central bank to
declare victory in its fight against inflation.
However, Daly said that a half-percentage point rate rise
was her baseline but did not rule out a third consecutive 0.75% point rate rise
at the central bank's next policy meeting in September, according to the
report.
Calling inflation unacceptably high, Chicago Fed President
Charles Evans said he believes the Fed will likely need to lift its policy rate
to 3.25% to 3.5% this year and to 3.75% to 4% by the end of next year, in line
with what Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled after the Fed's latest meeting in
July.
Still, he said, the CPI report marks the first positive
reading on inflation since the Fed began raising interest rates in March in
increasing increments ‑ a quarter of a percentage point to start, then a half a
point, and then three quarters of a percentage point in both June and July.
After Wednesday's CPI report, traders of futures tied to the
Fed's benchmark interest rate pared bets on a third straight 75-basis-point
hike at its September 20-21 policy meeting, and now see a half-point increase
as the more likely option.
Equity markets took a similar cue on hopes for a less
aggressive central bank, with the S&P 500 rising 2.1%.
Financial markets are currently pricing a top fed funds rate
of 3.75% by year-end, with rate cuts to follow next year, presumably as
policymakers move to counter economic weakness.
Kashkari called that scenario unrealistic, and said Fed
policymakers are united in their determination to bring inflation down to the
Fed's 2% target. The risk of recession will not deter me from advocating for
what's needed to do so, he said.
The consumer price index rose 8.5% in July from a year
earlier, the report showed. While that marked a drop from June's 9.1% rate,
prices are still rising at levels not seen since the 1970s and early 1980s.
Food prices in July were up 11% from the year before, devastating for lower
income families in particular.
For the moment, analysts focus on the fact that after months
in which accelerating price pressures pushed Fed policymakers to tighten credit
conditions faster than at any time since the 1980s, inflation data finally
surprised in the other direction.
"The Fed needs a lot more evidence (of slowing
inflation)... but this is a good start," said Karim Basta, Chief Economist
with III Capital Management.
Data on August consumer inflation will be released on
September 13, the week before the Fed meets, and given recent trends in energy
and some other prices the report "should also be friendly to the disinflation
path and should make a 50 basis point hike the preferred option."
Still, the Fed's battle with high inflation is far from
over.
The core consumer price index - which strips out volatile
gas and food prices and is seen as a better predictor of future inflation -
rose 0.3% from June and 5.9% from a year earlier. The Fed targets 2% inflation
based on a different index that is rising at a lower, but still high, rate of
more than 6%.
An alternative measure of consumer prices compiled by the
Cleveland Fed, known as the Median Consumer Price Index and considered a good
view of the breadth of prices pressures in the economy, rose 6.3% on an annual
basis in July, compared to 6% in June.
"Overall, prices remain uncomfortably high," wrote
High Frequency Economics' Rubeela Farooqi, who stuck with her call for a
75-basis point rate hike next month. "Coupled with strength in job growth
and wages, the data support the case for another aggressive rate hike in
September."