Thursday, 7 January 2021

Is United State cutting crude oil import from Saudi Arabia as part of new foreign policy?

The United States didn’t import any Saudi crude last week for the first time in 35 years. One can still recall that In May and June 2020, Saudi deliveries to the US had more than doubled from a year ago. The US refiners received the final installment of that bumper load in early July 2020.

Since then, Saudi oil shipments to the US have steadily declined. In November and then again in December, they delivered only 73,000 barrels a day to customers, preliminary US Energy Information Administration data show.

Eliminating the reliance on Middle East oil has been the dream of every US Administration since the presidency of Jimmy Carter in 1977. Just 12 years ago, when Joe Biden became US Vice-President, American refiners were routinely importing about one million barrels a day of crude from Saudi Arabia, the second-largest supplier to the US after Canada and seen as a major security risk.

Just three presidential terms later, that flow has fallen to zero. It is the most visual manifestation of how little; the US now relies on Middle East oil, after shaping its foreign policy for decades around its need for crude. If this abstinence from Saudi oil continues, it would weaken the economic, political and military links that have defined relations between Riyadh and Washington for decades.

The lack of deliveries follows a slump in crude shipments to the US. Since tankers from Saudi Arabia take about six weeks to reach import terminals on either the west or Gulf coasts, the drop is only starting to show up now. This is the first week America had no deliveries based on available weekly data through June 2010 from the US Energy Information Administration. A longer history of monthly figures shows this is the first time there were no Saudi imports since September 1985.

While the US imports of Saudi oil hitting zero is historic, it is likely this is temporary and only a deviation given the current low refinery runs and deep Saudi production cuts that are going to increase, against the backdrop of the ongoing pandemic environment. The US is still in the grip of the pandemic, with record infections in many states forcing new restrictions. The US gasoline consumption plunged to the lowest in years during the usual high-demand Thanksgiving and Christmas holiday periods.

The demand loss is so acute that some of the US refineries have been idled. Throughput is still below where it was before the crisis because of reduced domestic demand.

For Saudi Arabia, cutting shipments to the US is the quickest way to signal to the wider market that it’s tightening supply. The government is alone in publishing weekly data on crude stockpiles and imports, which carry enormous influence among oil traders. Other big petroleum consuming nations, like China, publish less timely information about oil supplies.

In the short term, the election of Joe Biden could benefit Saudi Arabia. While transitioning away from hydrocarbons would have a long-term impact on oil demand, hopes to revive the 2015 Iranian nuclear deal would pave the way for more Iranian oil to flow globally. Those sales will displace Saudi oil and that would mean Arabia would have to turn to the US to maintain sales.

Wednesday, 6 January 2021

Another effort to strip Pakistan of its status as a major non-Nato ally of United States

A Republican lawmaker has moved a bill in the 117th Congress, seeking to strip Pakistan of its status as a major non-Nato ally of the United States. The Washington Times also pointed out that the bill, introduced drew little US media notice but triggered headlines in India, which … has long been critical of US-Pakistan relations. I am pleased to share with readers one of my blogs titled “US can’t afford to antagonize Pakistan” written as back as March 2013.

Over the years Pakistan has been fighting proxy US war in Afghanistan, not because of any love for Afghans or even to please the super power. It has been dragged into it and one could sum up the negotiations in before US assault on Afghanistan in one sentence ‘either you are with us or with our enemies’. At that time Pakistan had no option but to bow down as India was ready to join the US crusade. By that time Pakistan was also facing enduring economic sanctions for undertaking ‘nuclear test in 1998 and the probability was that refusal to join the war may also lead to air strikes on Pakistan’s sensitive installations.

On this Monday, Iranian Presidents Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari jointly inaugurated the work on the of 780-km Pakistani segment of Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline in the Iranian port city of Chahbahar. The point to be noted is that in this city India is constructing a sea port which is also being linked with Central Asia via Afghanistan on which the United States has never raised any objection. In fact it may be said that India is doing this under the instructions of United States which wants an alternative route, other than through Pakistan.

As I have said earlier United States is once again following ‘carrot and stock policy’. Victoria Nuland of the US State Department on one hand warns Islamabad that its cooperation with Tehran falls under the Iran Sanctions Act, which means that Pakistan may face a ban on its transactions through American banks and that US military and other aid to Pakistan may be curtailed. She also plays the mantra that the US administration is willing to offer other alternatives, but little has been done to date.

Pakistan is rightly demanding its treatment at par with India, if it has to quite Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline, this could be done on only one condition supply of nuclear technology for civilian use. The US has offered this to India in exchange for deserting the gas pipeline project.

This morning I got another inspiration after reading an article in eurasiareview quoting Russian analyst Maxim Minayev of the Civic Society Development Foundation on the matter. He said “I don’t think that Washington will cut its military aid to Islamabad as long as the Afghan campaign continues. The aid is meant to strengthen Pakistan’s defense capacity, particularly against radical Islamist groups. Speaking about Pakistani-US relations, one should bear in mind the potential of those who oversee them in the White House, namely US Secretary of State John Kerry and Vice President Joseph Biden. I think that such players will manage to create additional opportunities for the White House in terms of minimizing the impact of the Pakistani-Iranian pipeline project”.

In his view impositions of sanctions may have the opposite effect. If Washington curtails political and military cooperation with Islamabad, the latter will move to expand ties with China. That’s not what the White House wants. There will be a general elections in Pakistan in May with the ruling Pakistan People’s Party facing a tough challenge from the Muslim League-Nawaz led by ex-Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. Both the parties are campaigning on the promises to ease the country’s energy crisis that has reduced its GDP growth rate to around 2.5%. Therefore, any party that wins majority or form coalition government, its first priority will be to resolve looming energy crisis.

In fact President Asif Ali Zardari has won hearts of Pakistanis once again by transferring control of Gwadar port to China and commencing work on Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline. Any effort by the United States to create hurdle in smooth working of these two projects could raise two popular demands: 1) Pakistan should immediately pull itself out of US proxy war and 2) stopping movement of Nato supplies through Pakistan with immediate effect. I hope the US government just can’t afford either one.

I also tend to agree with Russian Orientalist Sergei Druzhilovsky. He believes that the project will go ahead, no matter who wins the election. All the more so that Iran has already built its 900-km segment of the pipeline and hopes to extend it into India. For Pakistan, gas transit means handsome profits. The latter circumstance must have outweighed the alternatives proposed by Saudi Arabia and the United States. Last May, Pakistani Foreign Minister Hina Rabbani Khar made clear Islamabad would not yield to pressure over the pipeline.

Pakistan needs gas to keep its thermal power plants running and industries operating at optimum capacity utilization. Last but not the least Pakistan has a right to demand that the United States should first impose economic sanctions on India for buying oil from Iran, constructing Chahbahar seaport and rail and road network in Iran.

Tuesday, 5 January 2021

Armenia a new market for Iranian producers

During Armenia’s 44-day conflict with Azerbaijan in the Nagorno-Karabakh region, Turkey had heavily backed Azerbaijan, further deepening the historical conflict between the two neighbors. In retaliation, the Armenian government announced on October 20, 2020, a decision for banning the imports of Turkish goods as of December 31, 2020.

Following the mentioned decision, Armenia has now reached out to the Islamic Republic to replace Turkish commodities with Iranian products in its markets. This has presented a new opportunity for Iranian producers to have a strong presence in this market and turn the (probably) temporary opportunity into a permanent trade bond between the two countries.

 Turkey-Armenia trade

Although, the border between Turkey and Armenia has been closed since 1993, the trade between the two countries has never ceased. The trade transactions between the two neighbors have been historically carried out through third countries like Georgia.

According to the Armenian Statistics Institute, Turkey’s annual exports to Armenia amounted to over US$2 billion over the past 10 years. However, in reality, the total imports of Turkish goods by Armenian people considering the so-called ‘luggage trade’ is much more than the mentioned figure. In fact, Turkey has been dominating the Armenian market for a very long time.

Iran-Armenia trade

Despite having shared borders, and close cultural and historical relations, the trade between Iran and Armenia has not been at a favorable level over the past few decades.

However, Iran’s preferential trade agreement with the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) has changed the prospect of the country’s trade relations with Armenia, paving the way for a boost in the economic relations between the two sides.

Back in January 2020, the Head of Iran-Armenia Joint Chamber of Commerce and Industry Hervik Yarijanian said the preferential trade agreement between Iran and EAEU has had a significant impact on the country’s trade relations with Armenia.

According to the official, the volume of trade between the two countries has witnessed an outstanding rise since the agreement became effective in October 2019.

Iran mainly imports red meat from Armenia, while Armenia imports polymer raw materials, machinery, industrial gases, manufactured artifacts, leather and leather goods from Iran, he said.

New opportunity

With the Turkish products being wiped out of the Armenian market, Iranian producers are presented with a great opportunity to showcase the high quality of their products and benefit from the huge capacities of the mentioned market.

Last week, the Director-General of the Asia-Pacific Department of Iran’s Trade Promotion Organization (TPO) said that Armenia is willing to replace Turkish commodities with Iranian products. According to Mojtaba Mousavian, the Republic of Armenia plans to replace 2,250 Turkish commodity items with Iran-made products.

Later on Tuesday, a Board member of the Iran Chamber of Commerce, Industries, Mines and Agriculture (ICCIMA) told ILNA that Iran now has the advantage of exporting goods such as sweets and chocolates, ceramic tiles, detergents, shoes, flooring and carpets and textile and clothing to Armenia, in addition to the previously traded items.

“We may not have been able to make good use of regional agreements in the past, but this is an opportunity for us to enter the Armenian market with full force,” Ali Shariati said.

Establishing strong economic relations with other countries requires a united front by the government, which means it requires close coordination between various government bodies to set the scene for the private sector and traders to play their role.

In this particular case, the situation begs the immediate attention from a triangle consisting of the Trade Promotion Organization, the Iran-Armenia Joint Chamber of Commerce, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

By mobilizing the facilities in the mentioned bodies, exporters will be able to fully showcase their capacities and capabilities and take advantage of this probably short-term opportunity.

Monday, 4 January 2021

Iran Seizes Korean Tanker

According to Bloomberg, Iran has seized a South Korean-flagged oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said it detained the Hankuk Chemi vessel on Monday “due to repeated violations of marine environmental laws.”

Concerns of further conflict have grown in the final weeks before Joe Biden takes over in Washington, especially around the recent assassination of a top Iranian nuclear scientist and this week’s first anniversary of the killing of the country’s leading general.

“In the short run, these tactics run the risk of turning into a just cause for war in the waning days of the Trump administration, and in the longer run can poison the well with Biden’s team,” said Ali Vaez, Director of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group.

That announcement came shortly after Washington decided to keep the USS Nimitz in the Persian Gulf because of “recent threats” from Iran’s leaders against Trump. The aircraft carrier had been set to leave the region.

South Korea has sent an anti-piracy unit to the strait, the Seoul-based Yonhap News Agency reported, citing the country’s Defense Ministry. The Hankuk Chemi’s operator denied it had broken any environmental rules.

The vessel was carrying 7,200 tons of petrochemicals from Jubail in Saudi Arabia when it was intercepted, the IRGC said. The guard corps took it to Bandar Abbas port in Iran, the semi-official Fars News Agency said. Crew members from Korea, Indonesia, Vietnam and Myanmar were arrested, according to Iran’s Tasnim News Agency.

Relations between Tehran and Seoul have been strained since the United States re-imposed tough sanctions on Iran and banned countries, including major Asian customers, from buying its petroleum.

Iran says it has at least US$7 billion from oil sales trapped in South Korea and the money is needed to purchase humanitarian goods, including coronavirus vaccines. Seoul’s deputy foreign minister was scheduled to visit Iran to discuss the trapped funds, a spokesman for Iran’s Foreign Ministry said just before the tanker was seized.

South Korea is not a member of the International Maritime IMSC Security Construct (IMSC), a maritime force created in 2019 in response to Iranian attacks and to protect sea lanes in the Middle East. Seoul has previously indicated a willingness to work with, though it has not requested assistance from the alliance so far, said an IMSC spokesman.

The Hankuk Chemi was sailing to the United Arab Emirates port of Fujairah after loading at Jubail, according to ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. It veered off course in the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow stretch of water between the tip of Oman and Iran, and headed toward Bandar Abbas.

UK Maritime Trade Operations, which serves as a link between the Royal Navy and commercial vessels operating in high-risk areas, said there had been “an interaction” between a merchant vessel and the Iranian authorities in the Strait of Hormuz between 6:15 a.m. and 7:33 a.m. London time.

The U.S. Fifth Fleet, which is based in the region, is “monitoring the situation,” spokeswoman Commander Rebecca Rebarich said.

Year 2020 has changed our lives for ever

It has truly been a year like no other, with the pandemic dominating not just every news cycle but each of our lives. From work to family life, where we went, and what we did, nothing was untouched by COVID-19. But as people got used to phrases like “self-isolate” and “social distancing”, there were plenty of other news too. 

Coronavirus

The year began with a new virus originating from Wuhan, China. Wei Guixian, a 57-year-old shrimp seller, is thought to have been the first person infected. “Every winter I always suffer from the flu,” she later told Chinese media. “So I thought it was the flu.” We now know it wasn’t. COVID-19, as it has since been named, first took hold in the Chinese city then swept the globe. In Wuhan, some citizens have decided to sue the government for what they believe was suppression of the news in the early days of the virus. By January, the first case was in the UK and by March the world witnessed lockdown, focused on maintaining distance and washing hands repeatedly. As cases mounted across the world, there were unexpected issues, like those who wanted to believe that Covid-19 was in fact a hoax. As well as the terrible human cost, with tens of thousands dead in Britain and more than 100,000 still suffering with long-term effects, the pandemic has delivered the largest economic shock to the UK in three centuries – and it isn’t over yet. But with a vaccine now being given to the most vulnerable, even with Christmas plans derailed by another surge, there is still hope for 2021.

Brexit

When Boris Johnson won last December’s election, he succeeded on a series of slogans. First up was to “Get Brexit Done”, which he did, taking Britain out of the European Union on 31 January. After that, it gets a bit more tricky. He pledged to “level up” the country, and, after coronavirus hit, suggested a “Rooseveltian approach”, invoking FDR’s New Deal, though there’s little sign much has changed yet in the “red wall” seats the Tories took from Labour. However, the most pertinent of his soundbites now appears to be the promise that he had an “oven-ready deal” with the EU over Brexit. With time running out, there’s still no trade deal in sight. In the pantheon of prime ministers, Johnson’s currently far from the top of the pile after a whirlwind 12 months. But falling at the final hurdle with Brexit could make things far worse for both the prime minister’s legacy and, more importantly, the country.

US politics

Even by the standards of Donald Trump’s presidency, 2020 has provided some eye-opening moments. Questionable presidential pardons were perhaps to be expected, as were outrageous election claims. Suggestions of injecting bleach into the body to stop coronavirus, on the other hand, were not something anyone expected of a president. As 2020 progressed, the protests in the wake of George Floyd and Breonna Taylor’s deaths took hold across the United States and with them questions over the response from heavy-handed police. Along with coronavirus, it became the big issue of American politics, neither of which Trump had any real solution too, other than to stoke flames. By summer, the Republicans were already preparing for life after Trump. Stuck in campaign mode, the president pressed on, maskless, with rally after rally, and even planned to go ahead with a Republican convention as normal. Now, with Joe Biden set to come into power in a few weeks, the question is how much havoc Trump can wreak before leaving the Oval Office – and what he does next.

Climate crisis

The year began with bushfires blazing across Australia, killing 500 million animals and more than a dozen people, with acres upon acres left scorched in their wake. But it could end on a hopeful note, as the UK looks ahead to hosting the Cop26 climate summit in November. Joe Biden’s election, and his pledge to sign the US up to the Paris Agreement again, will surely help – with climate an issue that could bring him together with British leaders. In the UK, the government’s independent climate advisers have put together recommendations for how the country can limit its carbon emissions to keep temperatures down, and it’ll take more than sending fewer emails. Instead, they say that by 2050 almost every element of our lives will have to change, from the cars we drive to what we eat, if we’re to reach net-zero emissions. But can it really be done while building a third runway at Heathrow airport?

Arabs Israel relations

Many countries have established diplomatic relations with Israel in quick succession. The decision to establish diplomatic relations by itself cannot create alliance. In case of the Arab world, the matter is different. Within each country, there are factions that are hostile to Israel. Any regime that opens relations with Israel will have to face this reality. Each state that has recognized Israel has broken a barrier. Among many Arabs, it is a violation of a fundamental principle. This process, which began with the UAE, is rooted partly in the US Middle Eastern policy that has played an important role in implicitly endorsing the process and occasionally adding a sweetener. The US also made it clear that it was withdrawing its forces from the region and reducing its commitments. That left the region without the power that held it together. These countries could and did work together, but only through secret contacts and US coordination. Without the United States, each state was left to either go it alone or form meaningful relations on the whole. The US policy forced the countries of the region to face a reality they had tried to hide.

Sunday, 3 January 2021

Iran may avenge Soleimani killing after Joe Biden takes over as US President, says Former Mossad Director Shabtai Shavit

Two former Mossad chiefs and a former national security council chief all said on Sunday that Iran had failed to avenge the assassination of one of its most senior officials in 2020 and likely would not do so prior to US President-Elect Joe Biden taking office. However, they all told The Jerusalem Post that the Islamic Republic would eventually find a moment to avenge the killing of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force Chief Qasem Soleimani exactly one year ago. Former Mossad director Shabtai Shavit told the Post that, “the Iranians’ patience is never-ending.”

Shavit said that the killing of Soleimani in January 2020 along with the assassination of Iran military nuclear program Chief Mohsen Fakrhizadeh in November was “a double blow against its military activity in the Middle East” which it has not recovered from.

The Mossad Chief during 1989-1996 said that Esmail Ghaani who replaced Soleimani “isn’t at a level even close to the same capabilities and importance and managerial ability.”

Whereas Shavit said there is a continuous debate about whether assassinations make sense, he said in the cases of Soleimani and Fakrhrizadeh, there was no doubt.

“Some say they are not useful because one goes and the next one comes into line and replaces him…the level of talent of the one who entered his [Soleimani’s] shoes disproves that argument,” said the former spymaster.

In terms of retaliation, Shavit said that even though Tehran has not successfully retaliated in a big way so far (it did fire missiles on US bases and has failed at some other attempted plots), “we must take into account that they will respond. They will wait for an opportunity to attack a high quality target.” He gave the example of Iran and its proxies’ attacks on the Israeli Embassy and Jewish Community Center in Argentina in 1992 and 1994.

Questioned if his example meant he believed Iran would attack Israel or Jewish targets outside of the Jewish state, he responded, “When they do an operation, they use the strategy of deniability. This way, legally no one can bring them to court, but publicly everyone knows they did it.”

Former Mossad director Danny Yatom told the Post, “the assassination [of Soleimani] was a very impressive one of strategic value covering the full field with Iran.”

Yatom said, Soleimani, “was much more than just the leader of the Quds Force. He was more important than the commander of the IRGC who supposedly was his commander. He was very close to the supreme leader” Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

The former Mossad chief from 1996-1998 said that the death of Soleimani was “a harsh blow to both morale and actual operations…the Quds Force is still licking its wounds.”

Yatom said that “since Ghaani relieved Soleimani, there is a feeling that the Quds Force still hasn’t returned to the status it had before the killing and I doubt if it can get back.”

“There are reports that Iran is looking for the chance to attack an Israeli target or an American target. I don’t say that it is impossible…but they have waited a full year and have not succeeded to avenge one of the most important people in Iran,” he said.

He explained that, “this teaches us about the weakness of the Quds Force and of the IRGC today now that they don’t have Soleimani.”

Yatom added that, “even under his [Soleimani’s] command, attempts directly against Israeli territory itself were not successful,” including years in which he tried to create a capability to attack Israel using Shi’ite militias on the Syrian side of the Golan.

Former National Security Council Chief and Maj. Gen. (res.) Giora Eiland said at a virtual Jerusalem Press Club event that Iran has, “no interest today in resuming a large-scale confrontation with anyone, especially not with the US in the next two weeks before the transition of the presidency.”

“So I don’t think anything dramatic will happen in the next few days or hours just because it is the anniversary of the death” of Soleimani, said Eiland. He continued, “But Iran feels that at some point, it will have to retaliate, if not against the US, then against Israel or Israeli interests.” Like Shavit, Eiland mentioned Iran’s proxies worldwide, including in South America, which could attack Israeli and Jewish targets that are less well-defended than Israel itself.

He added that, “They would probably prefer to do it after Biden takes over. Trump is unpredictable,” and the Islamic Republic is hoping they can lure Biden into rejoining the 2015 nuclear deal at a low price.

Despite heightened threats surrounding the one-year anniversary of Soleimani’s death, he said both sides have taken actions to reduce friction, such as the US moving an aircraft carrier out of the area.

Shavit concurred, saying that, “they won’t forget to retaliate. Maybe the timing will be not when they are in negotiations with the Americans…They would be foolish to carry out an attack [during negotiations] just because they have an opportunity. But they are very shrewd people, you can’t underestimate them.”

Further, Shavit warned that even if the assassination of Soleimani worked this tool for fighting enemies must not be overused.

He said it could only be used for a very high quality target whose removal achieves a major purpose or there could be a danger of Israel losing some of its own ethics and humanity as well as facing increased global criticism.

Eiland warned that Israel still needed to watch out for “a cloudy Saturday morning when [mainland] Israeli targets may be attacked by cruise missiles from Iran, Iraq, Yemen, or with ballistic missiles from Hezbollah.”

US Spending Bill Offers Five Gifts to Israel

An enormous US spending bill that accompanied the COVID-19 relief package contains many financial and political perks for Israel. The US Congress passed an enormous US$2.3 trillion spending bill including foreign aid in billions of dollars to Israel.

Social media posts stating that Israel was receiving coronavirus stimulus money sparked outrage, especially since average Americans will only be getting a modest sum of US$600.

In reality, while assistance to Israel is included in the legislation, it is part of the so-called omnibus spending bill, which covers Pentagon funds; it is not COVID-19 related. Still, the bill offers political and financial gifts to Israel at a time of increased domestic and international scrutiny over Israel's human rights record.

While some of the pro-Israel provisions in the 2021 spending legislation have appeared in previous bills, the fact that they passed again un-amended signals the uncompromising support the Israeli government still enjoys in Congress ahead of the inauguration of President-elect Joe Biden later this month. Below are five rewards for Israel in the spending bill.

Military aid

Authorizing the usual annual aid with no strings attached, the bill allocates US$3.3 bn in military assistance to Israel, to be dispensed in the next 30 days. The law specifies that funds must be spent to purchase weapons and defence systems sold by the US government.

An additional US$500 million is allocated to Israeli cooperative programs, a Pentagon-funded initiative to bolster Israel's missile defence systems' capabilities, including the Iron Dome. 

The approval of the assistance comes despite more than a dozen US lawmakers threatening to impose conditions on aid to Israel over its plans to annex large parts of the West Bank and its ongoing occupation and settlement expansion in the Palestinian territories.

"Members of Congress should not be expected to support an undemocratic system in which Israel would permanently rule over a Palestinian people denied self-determination or equal rights," the letter, led by Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, read at the time.

Defunding UN Human Rights Council

The legislation calls for withholding US funds from the UN Human Rights Council "unless the Secretary of State determines... that participation in the Council is important to the national interest of the United States and that such Council is taking significant steps to remove Israel as a permanent agenda item".

This particular provision has consistently appeared in omnibus spending bills. But President Donald Trump already pulled Washington out of the UN Human Rights Council in 2018, citing what his administration called "bias against Israel".

President-elect Joe Biden has pledged to re-engage in multilateral agreements and international bodies that Trump abandoned; at the same time, his designated Secretary of State Tony Blinken said earlier this year that the administration would oppose "singling out" Israel at the UN.

Encouraging normalization

The legislation instructs the president and secretary of state to work to ensure normalization between Israel and Arab countries. "All Arab League states should normalize relations with their neighbor Israel," it says. It also condemns the Arab League's boycott of Israel, calling on the administration to take "concrete steps" to demonstrate its rejection of the boycott. 

The President and the Secretary of State should continue to vigorously oppose the Arab League boycott of Israel and find concrete steps to demonstrate that opposition by, for example, taking into consideration the participation of any recipient country in the boycott when determining to sell weapons to said country," the legislation says. 

The bill comes at a time when the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan have agreed to establish diplomatic ties with Israel. 

Abu Dhabi was rewarded for normalization with a mammoth weapons deal, including killer drones and F-35 fighter jets, despite growing concerns over its human rights record and military involvement in Yemen and Libya.

Legislators also take a page out of Trump's "peace to prosperity" framework that focuses on the economic benefits of normalization between Israelis and Palestinians.

"Congress encourages cooperation between Palestinian, American, and Israeli business sectors in order to benefit the Palestinian, American, and Israeli peoples and economies."

Conditions on Palestinians

The same legislation that hands Israel billions of dollars without any mention of Israeli policy imposes stern conditions on assistance to the Palestinian Authority.

The bill prohibits aid to Palestinians if they unilaterally seek member-state status in UN agencies unilaterally or pursue International Criminal Court charges against Israeli war crimes.

Moreover, the bill instructs the administration to work to prevent so-called Palestinian "incitement" against Israel. 

"Not later than 90 days after enactment of this Act, the Secretary of State shall submit a report to the appropriate congressional committees detailing steps taken by the Palestinian Authority to counter incitement of violence against Israelis and to promote peace and coexistence with Israel," it said.

Conditions on UNRWA funding

Although Trump halted US funding for UNRWA more than two years ago, the 2021 spending bill included a recurring passage from previous years calling for imposing conditions on funding to the UN agency for Palestinian refugees.

The bill calls for a report from the secretary of state ensuring that the agency and its employees, most of whom are Palestinians, adhere to "policies on neutrality and impartiality".

The report must also certify that the agency is "taking steps to ensure the content of all educational materials currently taught in UNRWA administered schools and summer camps is consistent with the values of human rights, dignity, and tolerance and does not induce incitement."

Biden has vowed to restore US assistance to Palestinians, including the aid to UNRWA. 

The incoming president can issue waivers to bypass the provisions of the spending bill, which had appeared in previous legislation when the assistance was ongoing. But the language in the law highlights the political challenges that Biden may face in undoing some of Trump's policies towards Israel.