What is the reality of over the horizon military strike in Afghanistan?

Reportedly the United States has undertaken ‘an over the horizon’ military strike against an ISIS-K planner, which has been termed successful. The statement of over the horizon military strike has the lowest credibility. It is believed that a drone has been used and the next question to ponder is which airbase has been used in this strike?

The United States military conducted a military strike against an ISIS-K planner in what appeared to be a retaliatory attack for a suicide bombing at Kabul’s airport that killed 13 US service members and injured at least 100 Afghans. 

Capt. Bill Urban, a spokesman for US Central Command, said in a statement that military forces conducted an “over the horizon counterterrorism operation today against an ISIS-K planner” in the Nangahar Province of Afghanistan.

ISIS-K is based in the Nagarhar and Kunar provinces east of Kabul, according to NBC News.

“Initial indications are that we killed the target. We know of no civilian casualties,” Urban said.

ISIS-K militants claimed responsibility for Thursday’s attack, which occurred right outside of Abbey gate. Pentagon officials said earlier on Friday that a single attack was carried out by a suicide bomber, clarifying that a second attack had not occurred near a hotel adjacent to the airfield as was initially reported.

The drone strike, which took place early Saturday morning local time, comes after President Biden vowed on Thursday target ISIS-K facilities “at the place we choose, in a moment of our choosing.” 

 “We will not forgive. We will not forget. We will hunt you down and make you pay,” Biden said.

Earlier on Friday the US Embassy in Kabul warned the US citizens who are at the airport's Abbey gate, East gate, North gate or the New Ministry of Interior gate to “leave immediately” due to “security threats.” 

Bennett-Biden meeting postponed to Friday

On 25^th August 2021, I had posted a blog highlighting ill-timed visit of Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett to United States. I had also highlighted that he may not succeed in obtaining any favors from US President Joe Biden under the prevailing circumstances. The apprehensions came true with the blasts at Kabul airport.  

Bennett meeting with Biden was postponed to Friday in light of the suicide bombings in Afghanistan that killed at least 12 US Marines and soldiers.

“The President’s bilateral meeting with H.E. Naftali Bennett, Prime Minister of the State of Israel, has been rescheduled for tomorrow,” the White House announced Thursday evening.

The bombing took place an hour before the leaders were set to meet for the first time in the White House. Israeli journalists, who had already gathered in the Brady Press Room, were asked to leave the White House.

The meeting, which was expected to take place on Thursday at 6.00 pm, is now scheduled for Friday morning, according to Israeli media reports. However, a representative of the prime minister denied the report and said no new time had been set. The White House also denied the report.

Following the delay, Bennett and his delegation will remain in Washington until after Shabbat, likely departing on Saturday night or Sunday. Sunday’s cabinet meeting in Jerusalem was postponed.

Bennett’s visit to Washington was finalized days after the Afghanistan pullout crisis began. His staff and Biden administration officials said the timing was important due to developments on the Iranian nuclear front. However, the crisis in Kabul overshadowed the trip from its start on Tuesday.

Israeli media being sent back to our hotel! But Bennett staff insists meeting with Biden isn't canceled.

Two suicide bomb attacks killed and injuring dozens of people including the US Marines.

Is west ready to bargain with new Iranian president?

For years, Iranian moderates, such as former President Hassan Rouhani, tried but failed to reach an understanding with the West. Now, a hardliner is in charge. Does President Ebrahim Raisi’s election spell the end of what Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei once called Iran’s ‘heroic flexibility’ in dealing with the West? In the wake of the Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan, the question now matters even more.

The answer is yes as well as no. Raisi is not going to take up the mantle of attempting to reconcile with the West. The ideological confrontation with the United States is central to the Islamic Republic of Iran’s fundamentalist identity.

Moreover, both moderates and radicals in Iran still view the strategy of building a proxy-supported Iranian ‘empire’ across the Middle East—advanced by the late military commander Qassem Suleimani, who was assassinated by the US last year—as vital to uphold and advance the Islamic Revolution’s purpose. No true rapprochement is possible between the West and Iran, especially now that hardliners are fully running the show.

It’s also worth noting that ‘heroic flexibility’ never applied to Iran’s dealings with Israel—another fundamental bugbear. Raisi’s administration will certainly maintain Iran’s shadow war with the ‘Zionist entity’.

Iran’s recent attack on an Israeli-managed cargo ship near Oman in the Arabian Sea has been viewed by some as a kind of strategic shift—or, at least, escalation—as it represented a blatant violation of freedom of navigation in international waters. But, in truth, it is merely a continuation of a war in which both Iran and Israel have never shown much regard for international norms.

Israel assumed that, by not using its own merchant fleet—99% of its foreign trade is handled by international ships, it could avoid such assaults. But just as Iran’s forces in Syria are vulnerable to Israeli attacks, Israeli-linked entities in the Arabian Sea, a theatre thousands of miles from the country’s coast, but close to Iran’s mainland are vulnerable to Iranian attacks.

Iran will not forgo the opportunities this represents, not only to impose direct costs on Israel, but also to undermine the Abraham Accords, which, by establishing diplomatic relations between Israel and four Arab states, are viewed by Iran as a strategic setback. Already, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia are reaching out to Iran, out of concern that US President Joe Biden’s foreign policy in the region won’t protect their interests.

But none of this means that Iran is gearing up for a direct confrontation with the West. Raisi has inherited an economy on life support. The Covid-19 pandemic and Western sanctions have cost Iran about 1.5 million jobs. Moreover, oil and gas export revenues have plummeted; annual inflation has reached almost 50%, with the cost of basic foods soaring by nearly 60%.

Clearly, Khamenei’s 2011 vision of a self-reliant Iranian ‘resistance economy’ hasn’t been realized. Furthermore, now that Raisi is President, Iran’s hardliners can no longer blame pro-Western moderates for Iran’s economic woes. To stave off potential unrest, Iran’s government must stem the economy’s decline by persuading the international community to ease sanctions, which will require it to reach some sort of understanding with the US over its nuclear program.

Russia and China are Iran’s more natural allies, but neither country will give Iran the resources it needs to sustain its costly proxy wars or reverse its economic decline. China, in particular, views Iran as a pawn in its broader chess match with the US, one that it would willingly sacrifice for, say, an agreement on vital trade issues.

An Iranian empire in the Middle East is simply not a strategic priority for China. At the same time, Iranian fundamentalists can’t be too happy with their Chinese ally’s brutal crackdown on its Muslim Uyghur population. The bilateral relationship thus does not represent a way out of Iran’s current predicament.

A new nuclear agreement is an existential imperative for Iran. And, as much as he dislikes the idea of striking a deal with the US, Khamenei understands this. Remaining on the threshold of nuclear breakout, a position it attained following America’s withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action in 2018, without actually crossing it may be Iran’s current bargaining position. This is what Raisi might have meant when, prior to his election, he upheld Iran’s need to return to the JCPOA in exchange for the lifting of sanctions.

But the real bone of contention lies not in whether the parties are willing to go back to the old JCPOA, but the terms on which Iran would accept the US demand for a new, long-term deal once the JCPOA expires. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has unrealistically called for a ‘longer and stronger’ accord, one that stops Iran from amassing nuclear material for generations, halts its missile tests and ends its support of terrorist groups.

What is clear is that Washington should do all it can to encourage Iran’s ‘heroic flexibility’. After America’s disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan, the last thing the US needs is even more chaos in the Middle East. Likewise, the victory in Afghanistan of the Sunni Taliban, staunch ideological enemies of Shia Iran, should strengthen Iran’s commitment to avoid stoking conflict with the West. Now might be as good an opportunity as the US is going to get to reach a lasting nuclear agreement with Iran.

Bennett exposes his anti peace policy

Palestinians on Wednesday strongly denounced Naftali Bennett for his statements on the eve of his visit to the US and said they do not expect anything to come out of the first meeting between an Israeli Prime Minister and President Joe Biden.

Bennett’s statements show that there is no real difference between him and his predecessor, Benjamin Netanyahu, according to Palestinian officials, who accused the prime minister of “sabotaging” efforts to revive the stalled Israeli-Palestinian peace process.

Bennett, in an interview with The New York Times, said there would not be resolution of the conflict with the Palestinians for the foreseeable future. He said that his government will neither annex any part of the West Bank nor establish a Palestinian state.

Peace talks will not happen, partly because the Palestinian leadership is fractured and rudderless, he said.

“This government is a government that will make dramatic breakthroughs in the economy. Its claim to fame will not be solving the 130-year-old conflict here in Israel,” he said.

Bennett said the government will continue the standard policy of “natural growth” in the settlements, adding that “Jerusalem is the capital of Israel. It’s not the capital of other nations.”

In response, the Palestinian Authority Foreign Ministry said that Bennett has “clearly and frankly exposed his anti-peace positions” on the eve of his meeting with Biden.

The ministry pointed out that Bennett affirmed ahead of his visit to Washington his opposition to a Palestinian state and his support for settlement “expansion,” as well as his refusal to hold peace talks with the Palestinians.

 “These statements constitute redlines and preconditions ahead of Bennett’s meeting with Biden,” the ministry said in a statement. “This is an attempt to stave off pressure or advice from the Biden administration regarding Israeli-Palestinian relations, settlements, or any American effort to pave the way for the resumption of the peace process.”

The PA ministry accused Bennett of “disregarding” the Biden administration and international resolutions pertaining to the Israeli-Arab conflict.

It also accused him of “sabotaging” Arab and American efforts to “create a positive atmosphere for relaunching meaningful negotiations” between Israel and the Palestinians.

“It’s clear that Bennett is trying to create confusion in order to influence the priorities of US foreign policy with the purpose of marginalizing the Palestinian issue,” the ministry charged.

It claimed that the prime minister was trying to hide his “extremist right-wing” positions by offering the Palestinians a number of gestures as part of confidence-building measures between the two sides. The gestures he is talking about are already part of Israel’s obligations as an “occupying power,” the ministry argued.

“Bennett departed to the US, leaving behind occupation bulldozers that are devouring Palestinian lands for building and expanding settlements,” it said.

AZZAM AL-AHMAD, a senior official with the ruling Fatah faction headed by PA President Mahmoud Abbas, said the Palestinians were not pinning any hopes on the Bennett-Biden talks. The visit will not produce anything meaningful for the peace process, Al-Ahmad said.

He called on the Arab countries and European Union members to pressure the Biden administration to clarify its policies toward the Middle East, specifically the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Another senior Palestinian official in Ramallah said the Palestinians were ready to return to the negotiating table with Israel, “but only under the umbrella of the United Nations and the international community.”

The Palestinians, however, do not believe that the Bennett government is interested in resuming peace talks with the Palestinians, “because it includes far-right parties and politicians who are strongly opposed to the two-state solution,” the official said.

“Bennett’s remarks on the eve of his visit to the US are a clear indication that the Biden administration is wasting its time by talking about the revival of the peace process and its support for the two-state solution.”

Commenting on Bennett’s statements, Hussein al-Sheikh, head of the PA’s General Authority of Civil Affairs, said that “Jerusalem is the capital of the State of Palestine, regardless of whoever admits it. Occupation and apartheid will not remain. The establishment of the Palestinian state does not require the permission of the occupation.”

Fatah Central Committee secretary-general Jibril Rajoub said the Palestinians were not surprised by Bennett’s statements, which came as a “blow” to the US administration and the international community.

“Those who should be surprised are the Biden administration and the international community, because these statements are a clear challenge to international resolutions,” Rajoub told the PA’s Voice of Palestine radio station.

Dimitri Diliani, spokesman for the Democratic Reform Current headed by ousted Fatah leader Mohammad Dahlan, said that as far as the Palestinians are concerned, Bennett’s visit to Washington bears “no political significance,” because of the “weakness of the official Palestinian diplomatic apparatus.”

Diliani accused the PA of failing to keep the Palestinian issue at the top of the US administration’s list of priorities.

He said that Bennett’s remarks on the eve of his arrival in Washington exposed his “extremist right-wing agenda that is hostile to peace and stability.”

Diliani also said he does not expect the Bennett-Biden summit to produce anything good for the Palestinians, especially regarding the peace process with Israel.