Would Joe Biden victory change Israeli politics?

When Donald Trump won the election in 2016, Benjamin Netanyahu became his favorite and best student. The Israeli prime minister had known Trump for years – he was at the president’s wedding to Melania in 2005 in Palm Beach – and paid close attention. When he started to see how Trump’s tactics were working in the US, he adopted some for himself.

Following his mentor’s lead, Netanyahu perfected the art of right-wing populism. He copied the president’s use of social media, launched a weekly Trump-like webcast to counter alleged fake news, and attacked the police, the attorney-general, the courts, the media and the elites. Everything became fair game, nothing off limits.

Like Trump on race, Netanyahu played up Israel’s ethnicity card, trying to drive a wedge between Ashkenazim and Mizrahim. He surrounded himself with people who never hesitated to wander beyond his circle, and who did Netanyahu’s bidding in the media, the Knesset or the cabinet.

Netanyahu was often the first and most vocal defender of the Supreme Court. In 2012, for example, he spoke about how a “strong and independent justice system is what allows for the existence of all the other institutions in a democracy.” He also refrained from unilateral moves vis a vis the Palestinians. Annexation? That was never an option. Instead, he was always the one urging caution.

But all that changed in 2016, and Trump is partially to thank for it. Netanyahu saw the movement Trump created, and tried to fashion the same thing in Israel. There was one point in 2017 when he even started dying his hair different colors.

Yes, we have a different electoral system (which is far worse for determining the prime minister than what is happening in America), but when it comes to rhetoric and tactics, we have in recent years pretty much duplicated what happened across the Atlantic. That is why it will be interesting to see how Joe Biden election as President wills Israel’s domestic political system.

The first person who will be directly impacted by a Biden presidency is Netanyahu, who is reportedly debating whether to cave to Blue and White’s demands and pass a 2021 budget, or refuse, and take Israel to a new election.

While Biden does not play a direct role in that consideration - another election is more about internal polling and Netanyahu’s bribery trial - a Democratic administration is something to think about.

What then could Netanyahu argue under a Biden presidency? For one thing, he could do to Biden what he did to Barack Obama: portray him as an adversary.

While Biden is a known political commodity and has a strong record among Democrats when it comes to Israel, there will almost definitely be disagreements over issues like the Iran deal, the settlements and the Palestinians, and any one of those could be used to ignite a crisis with a clear political benefit.

That is what he did with Obama, and then used it as part of his election campaign in 2019 that showed Netanyahu flaunting the infamous “lecture” he gave Obama in the Oval Office during a visit there in 2012. The message was simple: only a strong leader like Netanyahu can stand up to a president like Obama.

Could he do that as well with Biden? It’s possible. Right-wing pundits and Netanyahu supporters are already mourning what appears to be the end of the Trump administration. Tzachi Hanegbi, a Likud minister close to Netanyahu, went as far on Thursday as to warn of a possible Israeli war with Iran if Biden becomes president.

Is such a war possible? Who knows? But warning about it now serves one purpose: presenting Biden as a potential danger. And that, in a corrupt way, could be beneficial for Netanyahu’s political survival.

On the other side of all of this is Blue and White leader Benny Gantz, who has issued a public ultimatum that he will not allow this government to continue without a 2021 budget.

Interestingly, a Biden win has the potential to help Gantz. The reason is because Biden, obviously, is the polar opposite of Trump. He is not a populist but a veteran politician whose message is one of unity, compassion and reconciliation, ideas that Gantz has tried to push since entering politics two years ago.

One of the problems was that until now, a significant number of Israelis found it hard to imagine an Israel without Netanyahu – an 18-year-old army recruit has never been conscious of any other prime minster – and all his shtick. It was as if the division that Netanyahu brought with him to the job was a necessary requirement.

Soon enough, Israelis might see a different kind of president in the White House, one who doesn’t attack the police, the courts, the attorney-general and the media. One who speaks about unity, positive change and coming together.

That might radiate back here and give Gantz a boost in a future election. While Gantz’s Blue and White currently polls at only nine seats, he is confident that the party will pull in double that figure in the next election, one that could happen as early as March.

The reason he might be right is because the defense minister rarely attacks Netanyahu right now as part of the coalition, and when he does it is usually with soft shots. A collapse of the government – especially one initiated by his party – would give the former IDF chief of staff the offensive once again.

It would also give him a chance to explain why he joined Netanyahu’s government in April, and why it took him until now to bring it to an end.

If articulated well, he has some good points to make. While it is true that Gantz had promised over three campaigns not to sit with Netanyahu, that was before COVID-19 entered our lives. Once it did and brought with it the economic crisis that has upended nations, Gantz’s calculus changed as well.

What he didn’t fully realize in April was that Netanyahu did not change with him. Gantz’s mistake was thinking that Netanyahu would rise to the occasion. Sadly, he did not, and instead Netanyahu continued to put politics before the pandemic, and to work consistently to undermine his coalition partner.

Privately, Gantz tells party members that he knows there is almost no chance Netanyahu will abide by the rotation agreement that is supposed to see the defense minister become prime minister next November. But he does feel that it is important to provide a chance for a 2021 state budget to pass, since ultimately that is what the Israeli people need: financial stability and a government that works for them.

Expect a decision on this in the coming two weeks, but also expect a Biden win to give Gantz a feeling that a politician like him can succeed. Israelis will see that someone who comes across as decent, moral and honest can be president of the largest superpower in the world. Hopefully, Gantz will think, they can believe the same about their own country.

In a year like 2020 though, it has been learnt that anything is possible. But one thing is for sure that Trump and his style of politics is not going away so quickly. If there were people who thought that Trump’s election in 2016 was a “mistake” or a “malfunction,” that was proven wrong on Tuesday when he collected close to five million more votes than in 2016.

America is split. It is split geographically and it is split even within those battleground states – Michigan, Wisconsin and more. Traditionally, a president does not speak out publicly about policy, politics or party when he steps down. That was the case with Bill Clinton, with George W. Bush, and until recently, also with Obama. This could be tricky for Israel, which will need to navigate between making inroads with a Biden administration and the Democratic Party, but also at not upsetting an influential former president.

“Electoral College Undemocratic”, says Robert Smith, a US professor

"The electoral college, which is partly rooted in slavery, is a thoroughly undemocratic institution and makes a mockery of democracy in America," declares Robert Smith, a professor of political science at San Francisco State University, while talking to Tehran Times. 

Americans voted on Tuesday for the presidential election. The incumbent president, Donald Trump from the Republican Party, faced Democratic rival vice president Joe Biden. It seems that the elections would not run smoothly this time given the potential threat to the smooth running of the vote. 

Some Americans believe that antiquated and outdated constitutional institutions like the Electoral College can undermine the voices of ordinary people. In the 2016 presidential election, Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton garnered more national votes; however, she lost to Trump due to Electoral College. Professor Smith believes that such an electoral system should have been abolished before. 

"It should have been long ago abolished, but it takes an amendment to the Constitution which makes it virtually impossible to abolish, given the supermajorities required in Congress and the states," Smith said, adding, "It may, along with the unrepresentative Senate, pose a major threat to the legitimacy of the democracy and a system crisis in America."

Asked about some factors that call into question whether America is a democracy, the San Francisco State University professor notes that the election does not call into question democracy in America, "but the issues of voter suppression, Trump's unwillingness to say he will accept the outcome of the election if he loses, his unwillingness to assure a peaceful transfer of power, the possibility the outcome will not be known on election night, the prospect of Supreme Court intervention all make this an unusual, controversial and messy election, but the American-such as it is- is not in question."

Describing the Supreme Court lawyers as "politicians in robes," Smith argues that the court has a role in US elections inconsistent with democratic principles, and more so than the historical normal, is highly partisan.

Some restrictions were put on voters in Texas, a move which got some experts to say that battle playing across America is, in some ways, a continuation of a centuries-long fight over access to the franchise.

Last month, Texas's governor, Greg Abbott, a Republican, abruptly issued an order that limited each county in the state to offer one ballot drop box. 

In this regard, the American academic believes that "what happens in Texas and elsewhere in the nation is part of a long, sordid history of vote denial and suppression in the US, which has become increasingly blatant in recent elections."

Overall, it seems that the Tuesday election did not proceed as was predicted, and no one knows what will happen. 

However, Smith emphasizes that "the polls are generally accurate and trustworthy; they accurately predicted the popular vote outcome in 2016."

Underneath it all, many see a Machiavellian approach by the ruling party. It wants to preserve power by making it harder for certain groups like minorities, young people, and the poor to vote.

Investors not likely to pay attention to FOMC and BoE announcements

The 2020 US Presidential Election hangs in the balance with an outcome that is too close to call. No winner has been declared at the time of publication and it could be days before the new President is announced. Trump’s campaign has already requested a re-count of ballots in Wisconsin and the same could be asked for other states.

An uncertain election outcome with a split government was worse case scenario for Wednesday but instead of crashing lower, stocks rallied hard with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up more than 700 points at one stage.  While this rally may seem counterintuitive, the two most likely outcomes are positive for the markets.

With a split government, even if Biden wins, sweeping policy changes like tax increases or more regulation are unlikely.  If Trump wins, investors can expect more business friendly policies.  The markets also liked the decision by Illinois voters to reject the fair tax amendment that would have introduced gradually higher taxes for those making over US$250,000 instead of their flat 4.95% tax regardless of income level. In California, voters rejected the push to provide benefits to drivers for food delivery and ride hail companies like Uber, Lyft and DoorDash. All of these decisions are good for corporate America and equities.  

Yet currencies did not follow equities higher. Most of the major currency pairs including EUR/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF and USD/CAD were unchanged on Wednesday. GBP/USD fell ahead of Thursday’s Bank of England Quarterly Inflation report and monetary policy announcement but AUD/USD and NZD/USD extended recent gains. 

The greenback is mixed as investors wait for the final tallies which may not be delivered until Friday. Counting in Pennsylvania is expected to go on until Friday and the secretary of the state of Michigan also said it could take until the end of the week for a winner to be declared.

Complicating matters further, Trump filed a lawsuit to halt ballot counting in Michigan. Typically currencies take their cue from Treasuries but USD failed to follow ten year Treasury yields, which are down more than 10%. 

The US Fed and the Bank of England have monetary policy announcements tomorrow and the question is will they even matter? The latest US economic reports haven’t been terrible. Manufacturing activity is up; service sector activity is flat but not contracting. Equities are holding steady and the latest decline in yields makes lending conditions easier. All of this gives the central bank little reason to act, especially with investors focused more on the election than stimulus. They’ve made it clear that interest rates will remain on hold for the next few years and that’s the message they’ll reinforce at Thursday’s meeting. 

The Bank of England on the other hand is widely expected to ease monetary policy. PMIs were revised lower today, underscoring the overall weakness of the economy. Very little progress has been made on Brexit talks and as the clock ticks towards next week’s soft deadline, the probability of a no deal Brexit is high.

The central bank also meets on the same day the country enters its four week long lockdown. The closure of pubs, restaurants, gyms and non-essential shops will have a severe impact on an economy that was already sputtering.  The central bank will not only lower its economic projections but will be taking steps tomorrow to avoid a double dip recession. More asset purchases are likely but the market wants to know if negative interest rates are next. 

World Health Organization selects Iran regional base for cooperation in the nutrition science and food industry

According to reports, World Health Organization (WHO) has selected National Institute of Nutrition and Food Industry Research of Iran as the regional base for cooperation in the nutrition science and food industry for Eastern Mediterranean countries.

The importance of food and nutrition in the world these days is felt more than ever. Even in some developed countries the issue of establishing the Ministry of Food and Nutrition has been raised, Jalaledddin Mirzaei Razzaz, head of the Nutrition and Food Technology Research Institute said.

In Iran, the ministries of health and agriculture were commissioned to make arrangements for food independence.

Iran was in close competition with countries such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, and finally, Iran was selected with the efforts made by the Ministry of Health, he explained.

He expressed hope that such international cooperation will improve food and nutrition in addition to people's health.

A report jointly prepared by FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO shows that currently around 690 million people or 9% of the world population are hungry. Compared to the previous figures, this number is up by 10 million people in one year and by nearly 60 million in five years.

“The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2020” also indicates that the number of people affected by severe food insecurity has experienced a similar upward trend over the last five years. In 2019, close to 750 million—or nearly one in ten people in the world—were exposed to severe levels of food insecurity. The figures reveal that about 2 billion people in the world did not have regular access to safe, nutritious, and sufficient food in 2019.

Considering the widespread impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, it is estimated that the pandemic may add between 83 and 132 million people to the total number of undernourished in the world in 2020 depending on the economic growth scenario.

Also, the nutritional status of the most vulnerable population groups is likely to deteriorate further due to the health and socio-economic impacts of COVID-19.

While the burden of malnutrition in all its forms remains a challenge for the world, current estimates reveal that in 2019, 21.3% (144 million) of children under 5 years of age were stunted, 6.9% (47 million) wasted, and 5.6% (38.3 million) overweight.

The report states that healthy diets are unaffordable to many people, especially the poor, in every region of the world. The most conservative estimate shows they are unaffordable for more than 3 billion people in the world. Healthy diets are estimated to be, on average, five times more expensive than diets that meet only dietary energy needs through a starchy staple.

Under current food consumption patterns, diet-related health costs linked to mortality and non-communicable diseases are projected to exceed $1.3 trillion per year by 2030.

On the other hand, the diet-related social cost of greenhouse gas emissions associated with current dietary patterns is estimated to be more than $1.7 trillion per year by 2030.

According to the report, Iran experienced a relative reduction in the prevalence of undernourishment in its total population, dropping from 5.2% in the period of 2004-2006 to 4.7% in the period of 2017-2019. However, despite this improvement, the net number of people experiencing undernourishment increased to 3.9 million, from 3.6 million.

Israel the biggest resistance in easing US Iran conflict

In 2018, soon after becoming President of the United States Donald Trump withdrew from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, calling it “the worse deal ever.” In response, Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, vowed never to renegotiate another nuclear deal with the United States. Iran must accept that if Trump is reelected, it will have no choice but to reengage in negotiations with the United States.

Based on his recent statements, including uttering during the peace ceremony between Israel, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates, Trump appears eager to get back to the negotiating table. He may even try to get Senate approval (67 votes) to convert his deal into a treaty.

Former vice president Joseph Biden, if elected, is also expected to quickly negotiate a new deal with Iran, with the help of other participants of the deal. Some of his advisers have circulated working papers with the aim of getting “back to the JCPOA,” the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.

Many in Israel believe that Biden would offer up-front sanctions relief to bring Iran back to the table, without getting much in return. They insist, it was a bad idea in 2013, 2015 and would be problematic 2021. They openly say that since the United States withdrew from the JCPOA in 2018, the Iranian regime has engaged in nuclear blackmail, enriching more uranium, installing new centrifuges, enhancing its R&D efforts, and taking many other dangerous steps.

International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has issued several reports expressing its concern, backed by Israeli findings that the Mossad captured during its daring raid on Iran’s then-secret atomic archive. They say, the international community has failed in taking any decision or decisive action. Europeans have contributed to this inaction. Iranians, meanwhile, have played their cards well, deferring any major decision until after the elections in United States.

In Israel there is a perception that no matter who negotiates, the dangers are clear. They allege, Iranians have a demonstrated history of fleecing American counterparts at the negotiating table. The American negotiators failed to seize the advantage, despite the fact that Iranian President Hassan Rouhani telegraphed his negotiation strategy in his 2010 book. They also say that the errors of the 2013–2015 negotiations, which yielded Iran massive sanctions relief and sunsetting restrictions, made that abundantly clear.

Israel insists that the new agreement must address all core weaknesses of the JCPOA. Indeed, it cannot be more of the same with some minor improvements. The goal must be to establish clear new terms so that the JCPOA’s vagueness does not persist. The deal should include an end to Iran’s support for terrorism, regional destabilization and other malign activities. This was all articulated by US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in his “12 points” plan. It demands the new agreement should also include all three elements of Iran’s illicit nuclear program: fissile materials, weaponization, and means of delivery.

Israel insists that a new deal should be achieved only after the regime comes clean about its past, admits to previous violations and declares its past inventory. Even then, it will not be enough. The JCPOA included dangerous sunset clauses that expired over the course of a decade. Those must be removed for decades, with stricter monitoring and verification.

Some say the right agreement would never be accepted by Tehran. Acquiescence to such an agreement would tantamount to regime change given that it would run counter to the “revolutionary” aims of the Islamic Republic. But that does not mean that America’s president, Democrat or Republican, should accept anything less.

In a nutshell Israel demands, regardless of who wins this November, there should be a “sanctions wall” in place, and it should not be easy to take down. These sanctions should punish the wide range of Iranian terrorist activities, human rights violations and aggressive behavior.

No matter who wins, there is a risk that the next administration will be too occupies with concerns about China, followed by Russia and North Korea, relegating Iran to a lesser priority. This might soften the ground for a less stringent nuclear deal. More must be done to avoid this.

Israel believes, Trump if wins has an opportunity between now and January 2021 to sanction Iran’s entire energy sector as part of its “maximum pressure” scheme. It can also blacklist all of Iran’s nuclear agency workers.

The Biden team has indicated that it may lift sanctions on Iran. Some of his advisers believe that sanctions relief will help achieve an agreement that can help in avoiding war. It is being opposed on the pretext that sanctions can help reach the right agreement and prevent war. Propagators of this philosophy insist that the threat of war can be helpful. Indeed, without a credible military threat, the Iranians won’t come to the table willing to negotiate real changes to the JCPOA.

One significant change since the last round of talks is the peace agreements between Israel and three Arab countries (the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and now Sudan). These countries and others strongly object to granting any concessions to Iran, in the nuclear file or with any of its other malign activities. The concerns of America’s regional partners were ignored last time but should not be ignored again. Their decisions to make peace with Israel were driven, in part, by their shared concerns about Iran and a future flawed deal.

Some former Israeli officials have recently suggested offering other red lines in a future Iran deal. However, others insist red lines do not yield desired results. They demand Israeli government should reject any compromises that give Iran the benefit of the doubt. The priority should be to convince the international community that business with Iran is off limits as long as its policies do not change.

US Elections: Likely Impact on Pakistan

The much anticipated elections in United States will come to a close on 3rd November 2020. The Republican President, Donald Trump, is being challenged by Democratic Party nominee Joe Biden, who is best known as Barack Obama's Vice-President but has been in US politics since 1970s.

Biden is leading National Presidential Polls by 52% to 43%. National polls are a good guide as to how popular a candidate is across the country, but these are not necessarily a good way to predict the outcome of the election.

In 2016, for example, Hillary Clinton led in the polls and won nearly three million more votes than Donald Trump, but she still lost – that is because the US uses an Electoral College system, so winning the most votes does not always win the election.

According to a report by Topline Securities, the outcome of US Elections 2020 is unlikely to have major repercussions on Pakistan unlike the past. Key areas that Pakistan will keep a close eye on, if Biden wins, will be his 1) trade policy with China, 2) ties with India, (3) policy on troops pull-out from Afghanistan and 4) financial assistance to Pakistan (including IMF).

Biden is likely to ease stance on China adopted by President Trump, who has termed China as the biggest threat to the US right now. This in turn is likely to be a positive for Pakistan, given long standing relationship between Pakistan and China and also the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).

President Trump and Prime Minister Imran Khan have enjoyed a strong relationship, where President Trump in January 2020 hailed the growing relationship between the US and Pakistan. However, Trump’s close relationship with India has somewhat left a sour taste with Pakistan, where PM Imran Khan had recently said in an interview that Pakistan wants ‘even-handed treatment’ from the US with respect to India.

The brokerage house expects Biden to continue with Trump’s policy of US troops pull-out from Afghanistan, however in a more gradual and measured way.

Historically, Pakistan and Democrats have held a relatively more fruitful relationship, where it was under the Democrats that the Kerry-Lugar-Berman Act was approved – the largest civilian assistance package to Pakistan. However, it is under President Trump that Pakistan signed the latest IMF program. The US is the largest cumulative contributor to the IMF and the largest voting bloc – holding effective veto power for many decisions. 

Topline believes Financial Markets are likely to see a relief rally on the conclusion of the US elections given that uncertainty is likely to end.

Both the parties have failed reaching an agreement over a fiscal stimulus package, which it believes will be passed after the elections irrespective of the outcome of the elections.

The markets will be keen to see the structure of the government (President and the Senate).

At present, the US has a Republican President and a Republican Senate (though the House is Democrat).

A unified government is likely to be appreciated by the financial markets as a divided government is likely to result in policy standoff between the President and the Congress.

The US market’s reaction to a Republican win has been much better compared to a Democrat win. The PSX has largely mirrored US equities performance post the outcome of the US Elections

"Cannot force dialogue between Iran and Saudi Arabia", says Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan

In an interview with the German magazine Der Spiegel published on Friday, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Imran Khan said that he cannot “force” dialogue between Iran and Saudi Arabia.

Iran is fierce critic of the Saudi-led war on Yemen and has urged the Riyadh rulers to end the war on the fellow Arab country.  

“When I came to power, I immediately offered to mediate in Yemen. Such a colossal human rights disaster is going on there. I spoke to Iran and then I spoke with Mohammad bin Salman, Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia. But you can´t force anybody to agree on peace talks if they don´t want to,” Khan said when he was asked have you seen any progress in mediation efforts.

The United Nations has described human suffering in Yemen as the worst in modern history. A large percentage of the population is facing starvation.

Since Saudi Arabia launched war on Yemen in March 2015, Iran put forward a four-point plan for ceasing the war. However, Saudi Kingdom did not heed it. Iran called for an inclusive government in Yemen.

The new leadership in Saudi Arabia has been pursuing a hostile policy against Iran since King Abdullah died. 
 
Saudi Arabia along with Israel was also influential in prompting US President Donald Trump to ditch the 2015 nuclear deal and impose sanctions against Iran. Riyadh has welcomed every anti-Iran move by the Trump administration.

Despite all these hostile moves, Iran has said it is open to dialogue with Saudi Arabia.
 
The Pakistan prime minister also said a direct war between Iran and Saudi Arabia would be a “disaster” which will affect the entire world.
 
“It would be a disaster. It would be devastating for countries all over the world, especially the poor, and the price of oil would shoot up,” Khan warned.

 

Is Josh Reinstein the prime minister in making in Israel?

The famous or notorious manta of US administration is “Regime Change”. They had done this in many countries and are still playing in some other countries. It seems that Israel also needs a regime change. The next best man seems Josh Reinstein. He may be a little known to rest of the world but his caliber and mindset become evident when one reads excerpts from his interview published in The Jerusalem Post.

Josh Reinstein is Director of the Knesset Christian Allies Caucus (KCAC) and President of the Israel Allies Foundation (IAF). Born in Toronto, Reinstein grew up in Texas, graduated from the University of Western Ontario with a degree in political science. In 2000, he was enlisted in the IDF and served as a tank gunner in the 188th Armored Brigade. He is the owner and operator of JSR International Marketing, an international marketing and public relations firm based in Israel. He is the founder and producer of Israel Now News, a 30-minute weekly TV show broadcast to millions of Christians around the world.

Tell us about your new book and what motivated you to write it.

The book is really the culmination of the last 16 years of my life. In 2004, MK Yuri Shtern and I started the Knesset Christian Allies Caucus. It tracks the importance of faith-based diplomacy and how it affects political circumstances today in the 21st century. I started with Titus, the emperor who destroyed the Second Temple and declared victory over the God of Israel. He was so excited that he built the Arch of Titus, which was the biggest infrastructure project of its time. He was convinced he won, but for people who believed in the Bible, this was actually the beginning of prophecy. This was the time that the Jewish people were kicked out of the land of Israel and they always held on to the belief that one day we would be gathered in Israel, and Israel would once again be a light unto the nations. If you know the Bible, you realize that the destruction of the Second Temple wasn’t the end of our story, but if you didn’t know the Bible, you’d think that was the end of the Jewish people.

The same thing is happening today. If you don’t look at Israel through a biblical lens, you miss the real story. So all the predictions of what is supposed to happen in the Middle East, from the State Department and past administrations, have been flawed because they haven’t been looking at it from a biblical point of view. Christians are better equipped to support Israel because they do look at it from a biblical point of view. So it’s important not only to talk about the importance of faith-based diplomacy but also to describe why Christians are in a position to understand better what is happening in the Middle East and also to show who’s standing against people who believe in the Bible and where that’s coming from. Basically it is an overview of the last 16 years of my life, developing what we call faith-based diplomacy.

How do you view President Trump and his relationship with Israel?

I think if you look at it objectively, Donald Trump is the most pro-Israel president that we’ve ever had. And there’s been a long line of pro-Israel presidents, from Harry Truman and Ronald Reagan, of course. But none of them did anything compared to what Donald Trump has done. My organization, the Israel Allies Foundation, made a list in 2015 of the top 10 things that America could do for Israel, and our goal was in the next five years to get one of them done. Donald Trump, over the last three-and-a-half years, has done nine of them. It’s really unbelievable the amount of support we have seen from Washington DC. We’ve never seen anything like this before. He does such big things and so fast that a lot of people miss some of them.

What do you think are the top things he’s done?

He moved the US Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. He stopped the Iran deal, which was allowing Iran to get nuclear weapons within 10 years and gave them billions of dollars in cash to promote terrorism around the world. He recognized Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights, which is something that we’ve been working on for a very long time. He passed the Taylor Force Act, which made it illegal for US funding to go to Palestinian terrorists. He defunded UNRWA (United Nations Relief and Works Agency) – the organization that was formed to perpetuate the Palestinian refugee problem around the world – by executive order. He legislated against antisemitism on campuses, adopting the international definition of antisemitism to also include anti-Zionism. He stopped the ordinance that anytime you mentioned Judea and Samaria you’d have to say “illegal settlements.” Now it’s “disputed settlements” or just “settlements.” He has overseen a sea change in Washington’s policy on Israel.

US officials talk about suspending Israel’s sovereignty plans, popularly known as annexation, in favor of the Abraham Accords. How do you see this in terms of the Trump administration’s promises?

I think this is a question of strategy, rather than substance. I don’t think it’s mutually exclusive. I think that you can have both the Abraham Accords and sovereignty. I don’t think that sovereignty is off the table. Diplomacy always happens behind the scenes and not in front of the cameras. But what’s being reported in the media is not necessarily what’s happening. This president understands that his base is Bible-believing Christians, and if he wants to embolden his base and get their support, he’s got to do things that they want him to do in Israel. And one of the most important things is recognizing Israeli sovereignty in Judea and Samaria. If President Trump doesn’t declare support for sovereignty before the election, I believe it’ll be made very soon after.

How do you view the Democratic presidential contender, Joe Biden, and his relationship with Israel?

I view him with caution. I think one of the biggest threats to Israel, the only existential threat, really, is a nuclear Iran. He was a proponent of the Iran nuclear deal, and he even went on record saying that he would re-sign that deal. For me, on top of all the other rhetoric and issues, that’s the most important when it comes to Israel’s safety. The idea that a Biden administration would give more money to Iran and let them develop nuclear weapons within six years, not 10, and go back to that deal, which we know Iran won’t honor, is a very scary prospect for Israel. Just on that one issue alone there is a lot of reason for concern and cause to say, is this really what’s best for Israel?

As we draw closer to the US election, what is your prediction?

If I had a prediction, and this is in no official capacity, this is just Josh Reinstein speaking, I think that Donald Trump’s going to win it, and he’s going to win it pretty big. I think he’s done enough to embolden his base. I think there’s a real silent majority out there of Christians and others who care about Israel, but for those who don’t care, he’s also done enough on the economy to show that it’s going in the right direction after the coronavirus destruction, and I believe that the majority of Americans vote on economic issues.

What do you make of the recent peace deals with the UAE and Bahrain, and which Arab states do you see following suit?

I think it’s an incredible victory for both Benjamin Netanyahu and Donald Trump. This proves what they call the Bibi-Trump Doctrine of peace through strength. When Israel’s strong, anything’s possible, and when Israel’s weak, everything kind of fades away. I believe the real lesson of what we’re seeing right now is that peace through strength works in the Middle East. When Israel is strong, other countries then flock to that strength and that power. We were ranked the eighth most powerful country in the world this year, which is unbelievable when you consider that just 10 years ago, we were number 57, and that’s because we’re seeing a strengthening of support for Israel. This proves not only that peace is possible through strength, but also shows that when Israel’s weak, we don’t have an opportunity to make peace. I think what’s incredible about these deals, aptly named the Abraham Accords, is that Donald Trump did what was biblically correct, not what was politically correct, and that leads to real peace. I think we are going to see a lot of countries follow suit, including Sudan, African countries and Arab countries. We’re seeing so many people standing with Israel, especially in Christian countries, and that support is leading to political success, and that’s really what faith-based diplomacy is – taking biblical support and turning it into real political action.

What do you say to Christians who don’t support Israel?

I know there are a lot of Christians who are on the fence about Israel, and there are a lot of people who support Israel who aren’t Christians. I think that people need to understand that we’re the only free democracy in the Middle East, and that if you don’t support us from a biblical point of view, we also have the legal, political and archeological rights to the land. We are the only place in the Middle East that has gender equality and full rights for women, the only country with religious freedoms, the only democracy with media rights. I just believe as someone who believes in the Bible myself that these pale in comparison with the biblical rights to Israel, and that’s what I tried to show in the book. People who believe in the Bible almost always stand with Israel.

What kind of reception has your book had?

We’ve had an incredible reception. We broke the pre-sales record of Gefen Publishing House, which has been in the business for some 40 years. We’re currently running out of books on Amazon, so we’re seeing a really positive response from people around the world. I mailed the first copies via a friend of mine to President Trump and members of his administration, and the president mailed back a copy of the book signed by him. This book is not an endorsement of Trump, and does not say, “Vote Trump!” It just shows the facts and uses Trump as a test case of when Bible-believing Christians get involved in the discourse, this is what could happen. And I think it’s important not just for the Christian community but for the Jewish community to say thank you to Donald Trump for doing things that no one has had the courage to do before.

What’s your message to the majority of American Jews and others who don’t support Trump?

I try to make the case for why Donald Trump is good for the Jewish people. Unfortunately, about 70% of American Jews don’t like Trump, and the reason is that what he’s done for Israel is not high on their list. They have other issues that are more important to them. But I think anyone who puts Israel high on their list of priorities is more likely to support Donald Trump. I think these smear campaigns about him being antisemitic make no sense. He’s done more for Israel than any president before. He’s the only president who has a Jewish child and Jewish grandchildren. There are more people with kippot on their heads invited to the White House than in any previous administration. A recent Ruderman Family Foundation report found that only 4% of American Jews put Israel high on their list of important issues coming up to the election. But we’re also seeing that among 60 million Evangelical Americans, Israel is a top issue. It’s a biblical issue for them, and because of that, we’re seeing incredible support for Israel, like never before.

You ended your book by saying, “The best is yet to come.” What do you mean by that?

Well, I believe that the story of the Jewish people, its past, its present and its future, has been foretold, and I take great solace in the fact that there will be peace in Jerusalem, and the question is how we’re going to get there. I think faith-based diplomacy has exploded and you can’t put it back into the box. Regardless of what happens in the American presidential election, we’re seeing more and more support out of Latin America, Africa, Eastern Europe and Asian countries, and among political leaders in places from Australia to Brazil and Canada. This idea of faith-based diplomacy is here to stay, and I believe today it is the most important weapon that Israel has in its diplomatic arsenal. I think we’ve just seen the beginning of this process and not the end. The book is not just about the history of Christian support for Israel and what Christians are doing now, but it lays out a road map of what Christians can do in the future for Israel, and what this new relationship between Jews and Christians in the 21st century is going to look like in years to come. I implore people to read the book and find out how they can stand with Israel. At this time when tourists can’t come to the holy land, it is a great opportunity to learn about the history of Israel and what is happening here now so they can prepare themselves for the next chapter in faith-based diplomacy. 

Iran reiterates support for peace in Afghanistan

Ali Akbar Velayati, a top foreign policy adviser to the Leader of the Islamic Revolution, has said Iran opposes the continuation of war in Afghanistan and reiterated Tehran’s long-held position for establishment of peace and stability in the war-torn country.

“Any kind of war among Muslims is foul because Muslim blood is sacred,” Velayati said during a meeting with Afghan Ambassador Abdolghafour Lival.

He voiced Iran’s opposition to the presence of American forces in Afghanistan and warned of the threat posed by the Daesh (ISIS) terrorist group to the prospects of peace and security in the country.

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh also expressed sympathy with the Afghans over a suicide bombing at an education center in western Kabul.

“Afghanistan is once again wounded by blind terrorism,” Khatibzadeh tweeted on Saturday night. “Afghan students fell victim to ugly violence and an endless war they had never chosen.”

Afghan ambassador thanked the Islamic Republic for supporting peace and security in his country.

The peace talks between the Afghanistan government and the Taliban began on September 12 in Qatar’s capital Doha to end decades of war. 

Iran has strongly supported talks between the government and the Taliban without foreign interference. Zarif has also appointed an envoy for the purpose.

Chairman of Afghan peace council Abdullah Abdullah made a three-day visit to Iran earlier in October this year to hold talks with top Iranian officials.

In his meeting with Zarif at the Foreign Ministry, Iran’s chief diplomat reaffirmed Tehran’s support for the government of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, the peace process under the leadership and management of Afghans, and the agreements among the participants in the intra-Afghan talks.

Zarif also admired Abdullah for his participation in the political process and assuming responsibility to run Afghanistan’s High Council for National Reconciliation. The top Iranian diplomat finally expressed Iran’s support for the Taliban’s participation in Afghanistan’s political structure. 

Abdullah expounded on the most recent developments in Afghanistan and the latest status of the intra-Afghan talks. While in Tehran, Abdullah also held talks with President Rouhani, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) secretary Ali Shamkhani and Energy Minister Reza Ardakanian, who is the chairman of Iran-Afghanistan joint economic commission.

Iran has been hosting hundreds of thousands of Afghan refugees since the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan in 1979.

Americans plan to hit streets if Trump interferes with election

According to a Reuters report, dozens of activist groups who claim to represent millions of Americans from both political parties plan to hit the streets next week, if President Donald Trump appears to be interfering with vote counting or manipulating poll results after Election Day.

The "Protect the Results" coalition of over 130 groups from Planned Parenthood to Republicans for the Rule of Law has about 400 events planned to date. Participants are prepping to demonstrate as early as the afternoon on Wednesday, 4^th November the day after Election Day.

“We can’t assume that Donald Trump will respect the peaceful transfer of power” said Sean Eldridge, the founder and president of Stand Up America, which started organizing the coalition in June.

If Trump tries to interfere in the counting of ballots, or pressures state or local officials to say ballots should no longer be counted “then we would mobilize,” he said.

Determining ahead of time, how, exactly, to define “interference” by the US president is difficult, activists said, but it could include refusing to accept state vote tallies or prematurely declaring victory.

 “We are very concerned that Trump is going to try to steal this election, using his position of power,” said Kaela Bamberger, an organizer with Shut Down DC, which plans civil action that may include stopping traffic in the US capital, with dozens of other groups.

Lessons from other countries that have suffered coups show that “time is of the essence,” Bamberger said. “The longer the person claims to be in power and tries to force their position of power to be extended, the more likely it is there’s nothing to be done about it.”

Trump has not committed to a peaceful transfer of power, instead warning, without evidence, of the possibility of fraud from mail-in ballots. Other Republicans have rejected the idea that he won't step down if defeated.

Trump said this week a result should be announced on Tuesday, an unlikely scenario given the huge jump in mail-in ballots that need time to be counted because of the coronavirus pandemic.

 “The President will accept the results of a free and fair election,” White House Deputy Press Secretary Sarah Matthews said in response to questions about the activists’ plans.

“We Count on Us,” a coalition of student activists, plans hundreds of proactive, peaceful demonstrations at city halls and counting centers to “make sure no lines are crossed,” said Neha Desaraju of the Sunrise Movement, which is a part of the coalition.

Others are focused on keeping voters patient until results are announced.

The bi-partisan National Council on Election Integrity has spent US$4.5 million on voting education ads, especially in some swing states, said spokesman Michael Beckel.

“Because of the pandemic, things look different this year, and that will require us to be more patient than usual,” Beckel said. Election experts in these states are already warning it could be days before results are known, he added.

Iran to promote barter trade for boosting exports

Iran aims at implementing ‘oil for goods’ barter trade program. Under this program country’s private and government owned export companies will be given oil to sell to potential buyers and import basic goods in return.

The details of this plan were announced by the Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh in a joint meeting with the Governor of the Central Bank of Iran (CBI) Abdolnasser Hemmati, the Industry, Mining, and Trade Minister Alireza Razm Hosseini, and the Agriculture Minister Kazem Khavazi.

In the meeting, Zanganeh informed that President Hassan Rouhani has accepted the proposal to create a Single Window System to carry out all the necessary processes for the mentioned program, adding: "We will start operations next week.”

CBI Governor Hemmati also supported the idea and announced plans for increasing the use of oil for goods agreements between Iran and other countries.

"The use of barter exchanges of oil for basic goods needed by the country will be expanded along with current methods of trade, to increase the volume of foreign trade and for a better usage of domestic production facilities," Hemmati wrote in an Instagram post.

To disseminate more details on the matter, the Tehran Times conducted an interview with the Secretary of Iranian Oil, Gas and Petrochemical Products Exporters' Union (OPEX) Hamid Hosseini.

According to Hosseini based on the Oil Ministry decision, several capable candidates among the country’s top export companies will be chosen after assessments by the mentioned ministry and the Industry, Mining and Trade Ministry, and will be authorized to use the mentioned single window system to export oil in exchange for importing the country’s necessary commodities.

“The government should provide the export/importers a list of the country’s needed commodities and allow them to export goods (in this case oil) provided that they import only the commodities determined by the government,” Hosseini explained.

Iran has experience in this regard and this barter trade program has been used several times in the country, for instance, a program exactly like the one recently proposed, was implemented in the Iranian calendar year 1370 (started in March 1991), the official added.

“In the program implemented that year the government allowed traders to export whatever goods they could manage but expected them to import only the commodity items specified by the government,” he explained.

In the current scheme, the government has started with crude oil at the first stage, and traders are only supported to export crude oil in exchange for other commodities, according to the official.

Hosseini noted that the supply of essential goods and raw materials required by the production sector is the government's priority in the mentioned barter agreements.

Underlining the CBI governor’s remarks on the matter, he noted that barter trade has been, for long, a way to deal with sanctions while developing the countries' foreign trade.

It should be noted that Iran is already exporting significant amounts of oil despite the US sanctions and other external problems like the pandemic.

The latest reports on Iran’s oil exports indicate that the country increased oil exports sharply in September in defiance of the US sanctions.

Data from Tanker Trackers and two other firms indicated exports were rising in September, although the figures fall into a wide range of between 400,000 bpd and 1.5 million bpd, Reuters reported.

It is expected that this method, along with other ways of exporting oil, which the country is currently using, would increase Iran’s foreign trade significantly in the near future.

 

Russia accused of enabling a proxy army on Israel border

In a wide ranging interview with The Jerusalem Post, H.R. McMaster, former national security advisor to Trump administration talked about the strategy to deal with Iran, China, Russia and the Palestinians over the long term.

McMaster made it clear to the Post that the deal was significantly flawed, saying, “The idea that weaving Iran into the global economy would moderate the regime’s behavior turned out not to be the case,” but he viewed it as a chip that could be used to force Iran to make a choice between “becoming responsible” or “remaining a pariah.”

This was the reason when Trump wanted to pull out of the nuclear deal even in 2017; the former NSC chief believed that – with all of its flaws – this was squandering an opportunity. He preferred to continue to use the threat of pulling out of the deal as a pressure point, which could be stronger than pulling out prematurely at the time.

Maybe McMaster’s most original contribution to the Iran issue is his readiness to challenge the premise that the Iranian people cannot be reached sufficiently to change their orientation to the West.

On one hand, he would disparage those who think just engaging with Iran will get anywhere if there is no “credible military threat” alongside possibly a smarter version of Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign.

On the other hand, he believes that given enough time, a concerted messaging strategy can reconnect Iranians with the time period around 1979 when theocrats “did not have uncontested” control.

Questioned about what concrete measures would need to be taken to present Tehran with a credible military threat, McMaster said, “We already have an incredible military capability in the region. The US does, and Israel certainly does. The US must demonstrate the capability and that it is willing to impose costs on Iranian forces and the regime.”

McMaster did not take the opportunity to endorse suggestions pushed by JINSA to publicize contingency plans for striking Iranian targets, such as its nuclear program. But he gave the example of the January targeted killing of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force chief Qasem Soleimani as sending the right kind of message that the US “knows the return address” when Iranian proxy forces attack US bases in Iraq or elsewhere.

Pressed that his ideas of a long-term strategy to convince Iran to reorient its attitude toward the US, the West and Israel might take too long, and that Iran could break out to a nuclear weapon in the meantime, he hinted with a veiled threat, “I don’t think it would be in their interest to do so.”

At the same time, he said, “I think it’s wrong to trust the regime,” saying progress would be achieved by conveying a message that the West has greater staying power than the ayatollahs have to outlast concerted pressure.

Asked how such a campaign could work when economic powerhouses like China and Russia are committed to keeping Iran afloat economically despite US sanctions, he said “it is possible to impose costs on” Iran that the ayatollahs would succumb to.

He said it is also crucial to get through to the Iranian people that most of their economic woes stem not from global sanctions but from the regime’s adventurism in foreign countries and corruption.

His formula for peace between Israel and the Palestinians requires the end of Hamas rule in Gaza and significant shifts in flexibility by both Israel and the Palestinian Authority, along with a return of the US to the role of a neutral and honest broker.

“There have been positive developments. The outside-in approach has been working. The recognition of the Gulf Arab states that Israel is not a security problem and that working with Israel is in their economic and security” interest, leading to “the Abraham Accords is worth celebrating,” stated McMaster.

He accused China of covering up the outbreak of the coronavirus. “During the pandemic, it [China] became even more aggressive oppressing freedom in Hong Kong and the extension of cultural genocide in Xinjiang,” said McMaster. Continuing, he stated, “Externally, China carried out massive cyberattacks against pharmaceutical companies, attacked and bludgeoned Indian soldiers to death, rammed vessels in the South China Sea and threatened Taiwan and Japan.”

To address this threat, he said, “What is necessary is a high degree of economic cooperation. If the US, the EU, Japan and the UK work together, they can compete effectively with China. It must be a competitive approach.”

In terms of losing ground to Chinese influence around the world in recent years, McMaster said that the US abandoned and was not even really present on the playing field, having been consumed by internal issues and a poor strategic understanding of the Chinese.

Talking about challenges presented by Russia, McMaster said, “It is really important to impose costs on the Kremlin and enablers that exceed the costs they factor into their decision-making process.”

“Putin’s playbook is designed not to challenge the US directly, but to drag everybody else down” so he can be the proverbial last man standing.

He said that “Russia preys on perceived weaknesses in democratic societies, takes advantage of divisions... lessens confidence in who we are as a people.”

Continuing, he said, “The Kremlin believes it’s succeeding. Putin has become more aggressive as his situation is becoming more challenged and tenuous with the stagnation of the Russian economy and with protests especially in the eastern part of the country. In order to alter Russian behavior, he recommended joint sanctions from the US, EU, Japan and others on Putin’s inner circle.

McMaster said he was perplexed at why “Israel’s economic relationships with Russian companies are deepening when the Kremlin is acting like a pariah state. Russia is a key enabler of Iran across the region. It is enabling a proxy Iranian army on the border of Israel. It is allowing the strengthening of Hezbollah.”

Pressed that Russia came in only when the US made it clear it would not expend sufficient military force to finish off ISIS and stabilize Syria, he said, “Russia lies about fighting jihadist terrorists. It is in league with the Assad regime, who released jihadist terrorists from prison so he could portray the civil war as jihadists.

According to McMaster, “Russia, by enabling Iran, really perpetuates the problem of jihadist terror organizations because the fear of Iran allows these jihadists to portray themselves as protectors of Sunni Arab communities. The fear of Assad and Iran’s proxy army perpetuates the jihadist problem.”

Bahrain faces anti normalization protest

Reportedly, anti normalization protests erupted in the streets of the Bahraini capital of Manama after Friday prayer. 

Protesters held up banners denouncing normalization, with the unified slogan “Anti-normalization Friday”, along with a photo of a masked Palestinian militant.

Bahrain’s normalization agreement with Israel was met with widespread anger, despite tight security restrictions, as well as the summoning of the demonstration organizers and participants, forcing them to sign an order to stay off the streets and not to engage in disruptive activities.

The protesters expressed their rejection of normalization by carrying banners with the slogans: “Normalization is treason”, “We reject submission, humiliation and surrender to the instructions of the US and Britain” and “Israel is a cancer that must be eradicated, and we will”. Other slogans stated: “We will never surrender” and “Normalization is shameful, it is a betrayal”.

After Bahrain announced normalizing relations with Israel, the hashtag “Bahrainis against normalization” was widely circulated by Bahraini activists on Twitter.

The Emirati and Bahraini normalization agreements with Israel were categorically rejected by the Palestinian authorities and factions, who considered the decision as a betrayal of Al-Aqsa mosque, Jerusalem and the Palestinian cause.

Zarif urges neighbors to choose peace over tension

Iranian Foreign Minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif has urged neighboring countries to choose peace, security, stability and prosperity for all instead of remaining prisoners of the past and perpetuate instability and tension in the region.

Zarif made the remarks in an address to a virtual debate of the United Nations Security Council under the title “Maintenance of International Peace and Security: Comprehensive Review of the Situation in the Persian Gulf.”

Pointing to the Hormuz Peace Endeavor—or HOPE—that was proposed by President Rouhani in his address to the UN General Assembly last year, Zarif said Iran stands by that initiative which is the culmination of various Iranian proposals for security and confidence building in the Persian Gulf region.

He said in the past couple of decades, the region has been the scene of several wars, massive foreign military buildups, ensuing nightmare of extremism and terrorism, dangerous accumulation of the most sophisticated weaponry, and aggression and power projection by various actors.

The foreign minister added, “The disparities in power, geographic size, and natural and human resources are very real. Historical anxieties and rivalries among many regional countries cannot be overlooked.” 

“We know that most of our neighbors prefer peace and dialogue, but it cannot be achieved if one or two pursue confrontation and wishfully wait for alien vampires to ‘cut their neighbor’s head’. That delusion will never be realized.”

He named three flawed prescriptions that have caused catastrophic consequences, saying, “First, that you can purchase security from others: Be it from Saddam Hussein invading Iran on some of our neighbor’s behalf; or from the US coming to rescue our neighbors from the monster that they had together created; or through unprecedented purchase of military hardware.”

According to Zarif, the second flawed prescription is, “you can have security at the expense of the insecurity of your neighbors: Be it Iran, Kuwait or Qatar at one time or another.”

The third, he continued, “you can establish regional hegemony: Be it in Yemen, North Africa or the Horn of Africa.”

He condemned extra-regional actors for looking at the regional disparities, unending rivalries and new hegemonic illusions as opportunities to expand their military presence and to sell more weapons.

The United States has deployed nearly 50,000 troops in the Persian Gulf region in 29 military installations with more than 300 combat aircraft, he said, adding, “The US has at least one aircraft carrier patrolling our waters at any given time, as well as tens of destroyers and other vessels with four Central Command Headquarters for its Army and its Special Forces, Air Force and Navy.”

Zarif also voiced Tehran’s appreciation to the overwhelming majority of Security Council members for rejecting US efforts to kill the JCPOA and Security Council Resolution 2231. 

Iran does not intend to engage in any arms race in the region and start a buying spree in spite of the end of Security Council restrictions, the foreign minister highlighted.

Zarif called on regional countries to envisage a broad spectrum of cooperation and confidence building measures that include water management, environmental protection, nuclear safety, energy security, education, tourism, economic cooperation, trade, investment, poverty eradication and people empowerment.

 “We all have anxieties and grievances. Certainly, Iranians will never forget 8 years of an imposed war: the aggressor fully financed by our neighbors,” Zarif reminded the regional countries.

“We can choose to remain prisoners of the past and perpetuate instability and tension. Or, all of us—and I stress all—can choose peace, security, stability and prosperity for all. The choice, surely, should be obvious to everyone,” he concluded.

Iran marks end of arms embargo

On October 18, the global ban on the sale of conventional arms to Iran expired and opened the way for the Islamic Republic to import weapons, including warplanes and helicopter gunships, missiles, tanks, artillery and other weapon systems. The ban was imposed by UN Resolution 1929 in 2010. It was lifted as part of the 2015 nuclear deal – enshrined in UN resolution 2231 – as one of the incentives for Tehran to cooperate on its nuclear program. Iran was also allowed to export its domestically produced arms for the first time in a decade. 

Iran hailed the expiration of the arms embargo. “As of Sunday, we can purchase or sell arms from and to anyone we desire,” President Hassan Rouhani said. He noted that the United States had failed to extend the arms embargo in a new UN resolution. “Today is a momentous day for the international community ... in defiance of the US regime’s effort,” Iran’s foreign ministry said in a statement. In a tweet, Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said “normalization of Iran’s defense cooperation with the world is a win for the cause of multilateralism and peace and security in our region.”

 In April, the Trump administration launched a diplomatic initiative at the United Nations to extend the embargo on the sale of conventional arms indefinitely. But on August 14, the Security Council roundly rejected the US resolution in one of the worst diplomatic defeats ever for Washington. Only two countries (the United States and the Dominican Republic) on the 15-member council voted for the resolution; two (Russia and China) rejected the resolution, and 11 nations abstained. To win passage, a Security Council resolution needs nine votes in favor and no vetoes from the Council’s five permanent members – Britain, France, China, Russia and the United States. In September, after the UN vote, the United States unilaterally reimposed UN sanctions despite criticism for other world powers.

As the embargo expired in mid-October, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo threatened to sanction any individual or company that supports Iran’s conventional weapons program. “Any nation that sells weapons to Iran is impoverishing the Iranian people by enabling the regime’s diversion of funds away from the people and toward the regime’s military aims,” he warned in a statement.

“Today is a momentous day for the international community, which in defiance of the U.S. regime’s efforts, has protected UN Security Council Resolution 2231 and the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). As of today, all restrictions on the transfer of arms, related activities and financial services to and from the Islamic Republic of Iran, and all prohibitions regarding the entry into or transit through territories of the United Nations Member States previously imposed on a number of Iranian citizens and military officials, are all automatically terminated.

In one of the JCPOA’s innovations, the definitive and unconditional termination of arms restrictions and travel bans requires no new resolution, nor does it require any statement or any other measure by the Security Council. The lifting of arms restrictions and the travel ban were designed to be automatic with no other action required. This was achieved after painstaking negotiations, and with a prescient anticipation of the possibility of a breach of obligations by one or more of the other parties to the JCPOA. The very same procedure is applied for the termination of missile-related restrictions in the year 2023, and the subsequent conclusion of ‘consideration of the Iranian nuclear issue’ in the Security Council in the year 2025.

“Therefore, as of today, the Islamic Republic of Iran may procure any necessary arms and equipment from any source without any legal restrictions and solely based on its defensive needs, and may also export defensive armaments based on its own policies. It should be underlined here that rejecting imposition in any form is the cornerstone of Iran’s foreign policy. Therefore, the imposition of any restriction on any field—including finance, the economy, energy, and armaments—has never been recognized by Iran.

“At the same time, Iran’s defense doctrine is premised on strong reliance on its people and indigenous capabilities. Ever since the eight-year imposed war on Iran by Saddam Hussein’s regime—during which the Iranian people were victims of sophisticated and lethal weapons provided to Saddam by the West while Iran was deprived of procuring even the most basic defensive weaponry—the Islamic Republic of Iran has provided for its defensive needs through indigenous capacities and capabilities.

This doctrine has been and will continue to be the principal driver behind all measures of the Islamic Republic of Iran in maintaining its strong defensive power. Unconventional arms, weapons of mass destruction and a buying spree of conventional arms have no place in Iran’s defense doctrine. The country’s deterrence stems from native knowledge and capability, as well as our people’s power and resilience.

Israel had a secret embassy in Bahrain for more than a decade

While the signing of the Abraham Accords signifies the first official diplomatic ties between Israel and Bahrain, the Jewish state has, in fact, been operating a secret embassy in the Bahraini capital of Manama for over a decade, according to a report.

For 11 years, Israel has worked to conduct diplomacy with Bahrain in secret, through the use of a front company. However, this secret diplomatic office's existence was classified and has only recently come to light following a short report recently.

According to this investigative look at over a decade's worth of clandestine diplomatic ties between Israel and Bahrain, the idea of a secret diplomatic mission was brought up in 2007-2008 during a series of meetings with Bahraini Foreign Minister Khaled bin Ahmad Al Khalifa and his then-Israeli counterpart, Tzipi Livni. The decision to open the mission in Manama was preceded by the closing of an Israeli mission in Qatar.

According to the report, the mission was registered on July 13, 2009, under the name of the front company known as The Center for International Development, though it has since changed its name and its current name remains classified. Bahraini records registered the firm as a company providing marketing, promotion and investment services, and its website explained it was a consultant to Western companies interested in non-oil investments in the region.

Like all companies, The Center for International Development had employees. However, the employment criterion was extremely narrow: Israeli diplomats possessing dual nationality. This can be seen in some of its shareholders and board-members. One of its shareholders detailed in public records, Brett Jonathan Miller, is South African, but he would later be appointed Israeli consul general to Mumbai. Another shareholder was Belgian citizen Ido Moed, who currently serves as cyber coordinator in the Foreign Ministry. Even its CEO was a diplomatic officer, though his identity remains classified save for the fact that he was an American national. He was only appointed in 2018, and has recently been replaced. To keep up the charade, all diplomats involved possessed cover stories backed by profiles on the popular business and networking social media platform LinkedIn.

And though this mission was small and clandestine, it was incredibly profitable, with hundreds of business deals struck by Israeli companies in Bahrain due to the mission's activities. What will the existence of this mission mean for Israeli-Bahraini relations going forward?

 Immediately after relations were officially established, Israel sent a formal request to open an embassy in Manama. However, this undertaking has been made incredibly simple by the existence of the mission, as all the groundwork and infrastructure is quite literally already in place. All they have to do is change the sign on the door.

USD witnessing persistent selling

With 13 days until the US Presidential election, it is no surprise to see investors selling greenback. President Trump and Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden are locked in a tight race. There are growing fears, if Biden wins by a narrow margin, Trump may not leave office willingly. 

Despite a raging second virus wave in many Eurozone nations, the common currency is on a tear. It is almost hard to believe that EUR/USD hit a one month high on Wednesday. Some of the biggest countries in Europe have implemented new restrictions and Europeans are staying at home as much as possible. This behavior will undoubtedly weigh on growth.

There have been some comments suggesting that the European Central Bank (ECB) is not ready to ease policies, but if the economy freezes up from a second wave, it will have no choice. The only reason EUR is strong is because of its attracting demand from investors selling USD. 

GBP also hit a one month high versus the greenback. Brexit deal hopes and mixed inflation data helped to lift the currency. Consumer prices rose in September, which was less than expected but stronger than the previous month. Producer prices beat expectations and rose at a faster pace. The durability of EUR and GBP rally will hinge upon Friday’s PMI reports.

Recently, the New Zealand and Australian currieries saw strong gains today on the back of USD weakness. There’s a very clear trend of improving NZ data and weakening AU data that should continue to drive these currencies lower.

Has US election already been hijacked?

Both Republicans and Democrats fear that the other party will attempt to hijack this election. President Trump is convinced that mail-in ballots are a scam except in Florida, where it’s safe to vote by mail because of its “great Republican governor.”

The FBI is worried about foreign hackers continuing to target and exploit vulnerabilities in the nation’s electoral system, sowing distrust about the parties, the process and the outcome.

There is growing perception that the voting booths have already been hijacked by political elites comprising of Republicans and Democrats, who are adamant at retaining power at all costs. The outcome is a foregone conclusion, Deep State will win and people will lose.

The Department of Homeland Security (DHS), which has been tasked with helping to secure the elections and protect the nation against cyberattacks. Many believe that DHS is not exactly an agency known for its adherence to freedom principles. There is also a perception that DHS is responsible for turning the American republic into a police state.

Voters want to live in the fantasy that they’re electing someone who truly represents the citizenry rather than the Deep State. However, the harsh reality is that it doesn’t matter who wins the White House, because they all work for the same boss: Corporate America. Understanding this, many corporations hedge their bets on who will win the White House by splitting their donations between Democratic and Republican candidates.

It is a political illusion aimed at persuading the citizenry that they are free, that their votes count, and that they actually have some control over the government. The harsh reality is, citizens are prisoners of a Corporate Elite. Election is a sophisticated trick aimed at keeping people divided and fighting over two parties whose priorities, more often than not, are exactly the same. 

It’s no secret that both the parties support endless wars, engage in out-of-control spending, ignore the citizenry’s basic rights, have no respect for the rule of law, are bought and paid for by Big Business, care most about their own power, and have a long record of expanding government and shrinking liberty. Most of all, both parties enjoy an intimate, incestuous history with each other and with the moneyed elite that rule this country.

Candidates volley at each other for the benefit of the cameras; they’re a relatively chummy bunch away from the spotlight. Moreover, despite Congress’ so-called political gridlock, the elected officials seem to have no trouble finding common ground when it’s time to collectively play the game to the mega corporations, lobbyists, defense contractors and other special interest groups to whom they have pledged their true allegiance.

Over half of voting public wants Netanyahu to quit politics

According to reports more than half of Israelis of voting age want Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to leave politics.

According to details, when they were asked, do they want Netanyahu to leave politics, 54% said yes, 36% said no, and 10% said they do not know. Among respondents who voted Likud in the last election in March, 28% wanted Netanyahu out of politics, and among those who cast ballots for Yamina, 57% wanted him to go.

The numbers were similar to those who told that they did not trust Netanyahu to handle the coronavirus crisis. As many as 55% said they could not trust him to deal with both the health crisis and the economic crisis.

Asked whether they believed the decision to lock down was made for political reasons, 51% said yes, 34% said no, and 15% said they did not know.

According to the poll, if elections were to be held now, Netanyahu’s Likud would win 28 seats and Naftali Bennett’s Yamina would gain 21. Yesh Atid-Telem would win 17, the joint list 14, and Yisrael Beytenu, Shas and Blue and White nine each. The poll predicted seven seats for United Torah Judaism and six for Meretz.

The poll was taken recently among 1,033 respondents representing a statistical sample of Israel’s adult population and had a margin of error of 3.1%.

Emerging global food crisis

The day World Food Program was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for its fight against hunger, fresh numbers from the US government showed that tighter crop supplies could worsen the food inequality crisis that’s sweeping the globe.

In its hotly watched monthly crop report, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) said world soybean stockpiles will be smaller than expected, signaled growing competition over global wheat shipments and highlighted dry weather as a threat to crops in parts of South America and Europe.

Taken together, the report indicated that global food prices could keep climbing, making adequate nutrition more expensive as millions are thrown out of work and economic woes deepen.

United Nations also released its gauge of global food prices, which showed costs rose 2.1% in September, mainly driven by grains and vegetable oils. The index is approaching a multi-year peak set in January. The USDA figures show that the increases could continue as China imports more soybeans and wheat, tightening the global balance sheet.

Prices are rising as the world is forecast for a sharp rise in food insecurity because of COVID-19 impact. As many as 132 million more people globally may fall into the grip of hunger this year, including in many places that used to have relative stability.

While global grain and oilseed supplies remain relatively robust, wild weather including a recent severe wind storm in Iowa means harvests are smaller than initially hoped. Average yields for US corn and soybeans are still record large, though there are fewer acres that will be harvested.

Meanwhile, in Russia, top wheat exporting country production increased by 5 million tons to 83 million tons, the second biggest ever, according to the USDA’s report. Wheat output was cut in Argentina, Canada, Ukraine and the United States.

Prices have been surging in Chicago, with investors enticed by a demand driven rally. Soybeans for November delivery climbed as much as 2.8% to US$10.7975 a bushel, the highest for a most-active contract since March 2018. Wheat prices touched a five-year high earlier this week.

The crop outlooks and higher prices come as the World Food Program warned of hunger crisis of inconceivable proportions, unless it and other groups with a similar focus get the financial backing they need to do their work.