Israeli analysts raise 10 fears after victory of Joe Biden

Israel emerges as the first country to raise fears after the victory of Joe Biden in the US Presidential Election. Its biggest fear is that the US policy in the Middle East, especially the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and Iran, is likely to undergo a dramatic sea-change, after Joe Biden enters the White House in January 2021.

1. Trump’s "Deal of the Century"

Israel’s biggest fear is that Biden will end any possibility that Trump’s plan to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, known as “Peace to Prosperity” or by its nickname as the “Deal of the Century”. The plan had offered a radical break from past initiatives and allowed Israel to eventually annex up to 30% of the West Bank and promised to recognize Israeli sovereignty over most of east Jerusalem. As part of the plan, Trump had also included the first ever published map of suggested borders for a two-state resolution to the conflict. The plan was unveiled only in January 2020, with an invitation to the Palestinians to negotiate, which they rejected. The Trump administration itself sidelined the initiative this summer in favor of prioritizing Israeli-Arab normalization deals, with the idea that solving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict would come at a later stage. Now Israel fears Biden will not adopt it.

2. West Bank annexation

A Biden victory removes any possibly of unilateral West Bank annexation, even a minor one. Biden will not support it and the Trump administration is unlikely to move on it during the time it has left, because his administration promised to suspend it in exchange for normalization deals with the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. Biden will want any sovereignty moves to wait until a final status agreement is reached with the Palestinians. His map of a two-state solution is unlikely to include all the settlements, and as a result, the fear of future settlement evacuations and a possible settlement freeze now returns to the discourse. The settlers and the Israeli Right had warned that the first 10 months of this year represented an unprecedented window of opportunity to annex the settlements. That window has now closed.

3. Onus on Israel to resolve the conflict with the Palestinians

The former Obama administration had held Israel liable for continuation of the conflict, holding that its continued settlement activity was a stumbling block to peace. The Trump administration flipped that calculation. It placed the onus for the conflict on the Palestinian Authority (PA) for failing to negotiate and for incitement. It held in particular that terrorism was a stumbling block to peace and took the PA to task for its continued support of terrorist activity through the payment to individuals jailed for terror activity and to family members of terrorists. The Trump administration also divorced settlement activity from the peace process either with the Palestinians or with Arab states. The onus will now flip back to Israel to resolve the frozen peace process, with renewed emphasis on the connection between the peace process and settlement building, which will once again become a stumbling block to peace.

4. Settlements will once again be considered illegitimate

Biden is likely to reverse the Trump administration’s dramatic upending of longstanding US policy, which held that Israeli activity over the pre-1967 lines in the West Bank and east Jerusalem was illegitimate. The Trump administration had recognized Israel’s historic and religious rights to that territory. While it never recognized Israeli sovereignty there, it held that such settlement activity was not inconsistent with international law and allowed for the building and expansion of Jewish settlements. To underscore the deep Jewish roots in the territory, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and US Ambassador to Israel David Friedman spoke of that area as Judea and Samaria. Concepts that were eliminated as part of the blanketed US support for all the settlements, such as settlement blocs, isolated settlements and the pre-1967 lines, will all be resurrected.

5. US embassy in Jerusalem

Biden is among the signatories to the US Embassy Act of 1995 that recognized Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and mandated its embassy be relocated from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. The embassy was only moved in 2018, under the Trump administration. During the campaign, Biden said he had no intention of reversing that move. To date, only the US and Guatemala have embassies in Jerusalem. The Trump administration has actively campaigned and enticed a small number of other countries to follow suit. His loss brings an end to that campaign. It is now unlikely that other countries, even ones who have pledged to do so, will move their embassies to Jerusalem.

6. Revival of Palestinian Authority

A Biden win breathes new life into the Palestinian Authority, which had been on the verge of financial collapse. It’s expected the Biden administration would restore ties with the Authority that had been severed during the Trump administration. This would include reopening the PLO mission in Washington and the US Consulate General in Jerusalem that served the Palestinians. Biden is expected to restore much of the financial assistance to both the Palestinians and to the United Nations Relief and Works Agency which services Palestinian refugees, all of which had been cut by the Trump administration. The absence of those funds had created a financial crisis that was compounded by the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as the PA’s decision to protest Trump’s peace initiatives by refusing to accept the tax revenues which Israel has collected on its behalf. It had also cut security ties. News of Biden’s victory allows it to restore security ties with Israel and to receive the tax revenues.

7. Israeli-Palestinian negotiations

A Biden administration would likely be able to revive the frozen Israeli-Palestinian talks by leveraging the shelving of the Trump administration’s peace plan and any possibility of West Bank annexation to entice the PA back to the table. It would be difficult for the PA to refuse Biden, after taking such a harsh step against Trump. PA President Mahmoud Abbas’s age would also be a factor, he is 85 and can’t afford to wait out the Biden administration, like he did the Obama and Trump administrations.

8. Israeli-Arab normalization

Biden supports the Israeli normalization deals with Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates and Sudan and is expected to work to advance them. But he is less likely than Trump to be able to advance new ones, since some of the impetus for the deals was the creation of a regional alliance against Iran. Still, the basic paradigm shift that divorced Israeli-Arab ties from the fate of Israel’s conflict with the Palestinians will remain in place.

9. US Israel bonding

Under a Biden administration the United States still stands with Israel at the United Nations. This show of solidarity has been a main feature of US policy for at least the last three administrations. The Obama and Bush administrations stood with Israel at the UN due to the body’s bias against Israel, even though they philosophically agreed with many of Israel’s opponents. The Trump administration stood with Israel both on the grounds of bias and because it philosophically supported Israel on many of the issues. Biden is more likely to go the way of the Obama and Bush administrations. Biden’s anticipated elimination of the Trump Administration’s paradigm understanding of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict will likely weaken the impact of his administration’s support for Israel at the UN.

10. Iranian deal

Biden victory may reverse the Trump administration’s policy towards Iran and restores it to that of the Obama administration, which had brokered a 2015 deal to curb Tehran’s nuclear program. Trump withdrew the US from that deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, between Iran and the six world powers. It has re-imposed US sanctions on Iran and fought – albeit unsuccessfully – to restore the international ones as well, including the arms embargo. Now Biden may work to rejoin and revive the deal, which still has the support of the other five world powers.

Is Josh Reinstein the prime minister in making in Israel?

The famous or notorious manta of US administration is “Regime Change”. They had done this in many countries and are still playing in some other countries. It seems that Israel also needs a regime change. The next best man seems Josh Reinstein. He may be a little known to rest of the world but his caliber and mindset become evident when one reads excerpts from his interview published in The Jerusalem Post.

Josh Reinstein is Director of the Knesset Christian Allies Caucus (KCAC) and President of the Israel Allies Foundation (IAF). Born in Toronto, Reinstein grew up in Texas, graduated from the University of Western Ontario with a degree in political science. In 2000, he was enlisted in the IDF and served as a tank gunner in the 188th Armored Brigade. He is the owner and operator of JSR International Marketing, an international marketing and public relations firm based in Israel. He is the founder and producer of Israel Now News, a 30-minute weekly TV show broadcast to millions of Christians around the world.

Tell us about your new book and what motivated you to write it.

The book is really the culmination of the last 16 years of my life. In 2004, MK Yuri Shtern and I started the Knesset Christian Allies Caucus. It tracks the importance of faith-based diplomacy and how it affects political circumstances today in the 21st century. I started with Titus, the emperor who destroyed the Second Temple and declared victory over the God of Israel. He was so excited that he built the Arch of Titus, which was the biggest infrastructure project of its time. He was convinced he won, but for people who believed in the Bible, this was actually the beginning of prophecy. This was the time that the Jewish people were kicked out of the land of Israel and they always held on to the belief that one day we would be gathered in Israel, and Israel would once again be a light unto the nations. If you know the Bible, you realize that the destruction of the Second Temple wasn’t the end of our story, but if you didn’t know the Bible, you’d think that was the end of the Jewish people.

The same thing is happening today. If you don’t look at Israel through a biblical lens, you miss the real story. So all the predictions of what is supposed to happen in the Middle East, from the State Department and past administrations, have been flawed because they haven’t been looking at it from a biblical point of view. Christians are better equipped to support Israel because they do look at it from a biblical point of view. So it’s important not only to talk about the importance of faith-based diplomacy but also to describe why Christians are in a position to understand better what is happening in the Middle East and also to show who’s standing against people who believe in the Bible and where that’s coming from. Basically it is an overview of the last 16 years of my life, developing what we call faith-based diplomacy.

How do you view President Trump and his relationship with Israel?

I think if you look at it objectively, Donald Trump is the most pro-Israel president that we’ve ever had. And there’s been a long line of pro-Israel presidents, from Harry Truman and Ronald Reagan, of course. But none of them did anything compared to what Donald Trump has done. My organization, the Israel Allies Foundation, made a list in 2015 of the top 10 things that America could do for Israel, and our goal was in the next five years to get one of them done. Donald Trump, over the last three-and-a-half years, has done nine of them. It’s really unbelievable the amount of support we have seen from Washington DC. We’ve never seen anything like this before. He does such big things and so fast that a lot of people miss some of them.

What do you think are the top things he’s done?

He moved the US Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. He stopped the Iran deal, which was allowing Iran to get nuclear weapons within 10 years and gave them billions of dollars in cash to promote terrorism around the world. He recognized Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights, which is something that we’ve been working on for a very long time. He passed the Taylor Force Act, which made it illegal for US funding to go to Palestinian terrorists. He defunded UNRWA (United Nations Relief and Works Agency) – the organization that was formed to perpetuate the Palestinian refugee problem around the world – by executive order. He legislated against antisemitism on campuses, adopting the international definition of antisemitism to also include anti-Zionism. He stopped the ordinance that anytime you mentioned Judea and Samaria you’d have to say “illegal settlements.” Now it’s “disputed settlements” or just “settlements.” He has overseen a sea change in Washington’s policy on Israel.

US officials talk about suspending Israel’s sovereignty plans, popularly known as annexation, in favor of the Abraham Accords. How do you see this in terms of the Trump administration’s promises?

I think this is a question of strategy, rather than substance. I don’t think it’s mutually exclusive. I think that you can have both the Abraham Accords and sovereignty. I don’t think that sovereignty is off the table. Diplomacy always happens behind the scenes and not in front of the cameras. But what’s being reported in the media is not necessarily what’s happening. This president understands that his base is Bible-believing Christians, and if he wants to embolden his base and get their support, he’s got to do things that they want him to do in Israel. And one of the most important things is recognizing Israeli sovereignty in Judea and Samaria. If President Trump doesn’t declare support for sovereignty before the election, I believe it’ll be made very soon after.

How do you view the Democratic presidential contender, Joe Biden, and his relationship with Israel?

I view him with caution. I think one of the biggest threats to Israel, the only existential threat, really, is a nuclear Iran. He was a proponent of the Iran nuclear deal, and he even went on record saying that he would re-sign that deal. For me, on top of all the other rhetoric and issues, that’s the most important when it comes to Israel’s safety. The idea that a Biden administration would give more money to Iran and let them develop nuclear weapons within six years, not 10, and go back to that deal, which we know Iran won’t honor, is a very scary prospect for Israel. Just on that one issue alone there is a lot of reason for concern and cause to say, is this really what’s best for Israel?

As we draw closer to the US election, what is your prediction?

If I had a prediction, and this is in no official capacity, this is just Josh Reinstein speaking, I think that Donald Trump’s going to win it, and he’s going to win it pretty big. I think he’s done enough to embolden his base. I think there’s a real silent majority out there of Christians and others who care about Israel, but for those who don’t care, he’s also done enough on the economy to show that it’s going in the right direction after the coronavirus destruction, and I believe that the majority of Americans vote on economic issues.

What do you make of the recent peace deals with the UAE and Bahrain, and which Arab states do you see following suit?

I think it’s an incredible victory for both Benjamin Netanyahu and Donald Trump. This proves what they call the Bibi-Trump Doctrine of peace through strength. When Israel’s strong, anything’s possible, and when Israel’s weak, everything kind of fades away. I believe the real lesson of what we’re seeing right now is that peace through strength works in the Middle East. When Israel is strong, other countries then flock to that strength and that power. We were ranked the eighth most powerful country in the world this year, which is unbelievable when you consider that just 10 years ago, we were number 57, and that’s because we’re seeing a strengthening of support for Israel. This proves not only that peace is possible through strength, but also shows that when Israel’s weak, we don’t have an opportunity to make peace. I think what’s incredible about these deals, aptly named the Abraham Accords, is that Donald Trump did what was biblically correct, not what was politically correct, and that leads to real peace. I think we are going to see a lot of countries follow suit, including Sudan, African countries and Arab countries. We’re seeing so many people standing with Israel, especially in Christian countries, and that support is leading to political success, and that’s really what faith-based diplomacy is – taking biblical support and turning it into real political action.

What do you say to Christians who don’t support Israel?

I know there are a lot of Christians who are on the fence about Israel, and there are a lot of people who support Israel who aren’t Christians. I think that people need to understand that we’re the only free democracy in the Middle East, and that if you don’t support us from a biblical point of view, we also have the legal, political and archeological rights to the land. We are the only place in the Middle East that has gender equality and full rights for women, the only country with religious freedoms, the only democracy with media rights. I just believe as someone who believes in the Bible myself that these pale in comparison with the biblical rights to Israel, and that’s what I tried to show in the book. People who believe in the Bible almost always stand with Israel.

What kind of reception has your book had?

We’ve had an incredible reception. We broke the pre-sales record of Gefen Publishing House, which has been in the business for some 40 years. We’re currently running out of books on Amazon, so we’re seeing a really positive response from people around the world. I mailed the first copies via a friend of mine to President Trump and members of his administration, and the president mailed back a copy of the book signed by him. This book is not an endorsement of Trump, and does not say, “Vote Trump!” It just shows the facts and uses Trump as a test case of when Bible-believing Christians get involved in the discourse, this is what could happen. And I think it’s important not just for the Christian community but for the Jewish community to say thank you to Donald Trump for doing things that no one has had the courage to do before.

What’s your message to the majority of American Jews and others who don’t support Trump?

I try to make the case for why Donald Trump is good for the Jewish people. Unfortunately, about 70% of American Jews don’t like Trump, and the reason is that what he’s done for Israel is not high on their list. They have other issues that are more important to them. But I think anyone who puts Israel high on their list of priorities is more likely to support Donald Trump. I think these smear campaigns about him being antisemitic make no sense. He’s done more for Israel than any president before. He’s the only president who has a Jewish child and Jewish grandchildren. There are more people with kippot on their heads invited to the White House than in any previous administration. A recent Ruderman Family Foundation report found that only 4% of American Jews put Israel high on their list of important issues coming up to the election. But we’re also seeing that among 60 million Evangelical Americans, Israel is a top issue. It’s a biblical issue for them, and because of that, we’re seeing incredible support for Israel, like never before.

You ended your book by saying, “The best is yet to come.” What do you mean by that?

Well, I believe that the story of the Jewish people, its past, its present and its future, has been foretold, and I take great solace in the fact that there will be peace in Jerusalem, and the question is how we’re going to get there. I think faith-based diplomacy has exploded and you can’t put it back into the box. Regardless of what happens in the American presidential election, we’re seeing more and more support out of Latin America, Africa, Eastern Europe and Asian countries, and among political leaders in places from Australia to Brazil and Canada. This idea of faith-based diplomacy is here to stay, and I believe today it is the most important weapon that Israel has in its diplomatic arsenal. I think we’ve just seen the beginning of this process and not the end. The book is not just about the history of Christian support for Israel and what Christians are doing now, but it lays out a road map of what Christians can do in the future for Israel, and what this new relationship between Jews and Christians in the 21st century is going to look like in years to come. I implore people to read the book and find out how they can stand with Israel. At this time when tourists can’t come to the holy land, it is a great opportunity to learn about the history of Israel and what is happening here now so they can prepare themselves for the next chapter in faith-based diplomacy.