Morocco-Israel ties to normalize in exchange for US recognizing Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara

Israel and Morocco have agreed to establish diplomatic relations, US President Donald Trump announced on Thursday. Morocco became the fourth Arab country to normalize ties with Israel in four months, following the Abraham Accords with the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Sudan.

 “Another historic breakthrough today!” Trump tweeted. “Our two great friends Israel and the Kingdom of Morocco have agreed to full diplomatic relations – a massive breakthrough for peace in the Middle East!”

Israel and Morocco plan to reopen economic liaison offices, which were closed in 2002, and work quickly to exchange ambassadors and begin direct flights, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said.

In addition, Trump announced that he signed a proclamation recognizing Moroccan sovereignty over the Western Sahara, a disputed territory. “Morocco’s serious, credible, and realistic autonomy proposal is the only basis for a just and lasting solution for enduring peace and prosperity!” he tweeted.

“Morocco recognized the United States in 1777.  It is thus fitting we recognize their sovereignty over the Western Sahara,” Trump added. No other UN member states recognize Western Sahara as part of Morocco.

The Trump administration viewed finalizing establishment of ties between the two countries as a prime goal in the past few weeks.

White House Senior Adviser Jared Kushner said normalization “comes on the heels of four years of very, very hard work and very intense diplomacy.”

"The team, led by Jared Kushner, has worked on this deal for over a year," Avi Berkowitz, Special Representative for International Negotiations, who took part in negotiating the normalization agreement, told The Jerusalem Post. He added that he hopes that the deal will lead to a warm peace between the two countries.

The move is the culmination of a successful year of upgrading Israel’s relations with Arab and Muslim countries, beginning with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visiting Chad and meeting Sudan’s leader in Uganda, the Abraham Accords, as well as the warming relations and cooperation with Saudi Arabia, in addition to a number of other Arab states.

Early this year, as reported in Israeli media, Israel proposed a scenario to the White House similar to what has unfolded, that normalization of relations with Morocco would come in conjunction with American recognition of the Western Sahara.

French media reported that Morocco purchased three drones from Israel for $48 million in January. Like other Gulf States, Morocco views Iran as a threat. Rabat cut ties with Tehran in 2018, because Iran funded Western Sahara separatist movement Polisario via Hezbollah.

Long before that, Morocco had a relationship with Israeli intelligence agencies. Moroccan King Hassan II gave Israel recordings of an Arab League meeting that helped Israel prepare for the Six Day War in 1967, according to former IDF intelligence chief Shlomo Gazit and the former intelligence officer and cabinet minister Rafi Eitan. That same year, the Mossad helped Morocco abduct a dissident from France.

Netanyahus focused on the many Israelis of Moroccan origin and not security matters in his remarks on normalization, which he called a “great light of peace” in honor of Hanukkah.

“Everyone knows the warm ties of the kings of Morocco and the Moroccan people to the Jewish community there,” Netanyahu said. “Hundreds of thousands of Jews moved to Israel from Morocco and they form a living bridge between the people of Morocco and Israel. This solid base is the foundation on which we build this peace.”

Trump’s proclamation said the US “affirms, as stated by previous Administrations, its support for Morocco’s autonomy proposal as the only basis for a just and lasting solution to the dispute over the Western Sahara territory…An independent Sahrawi State is not a realistic option for resolving the conflict and that genuine autonomy under Moroccan sovereignty is the only feasible solution.”

“Therefore, as of today, the United States recognizes Moroccan sovereignty over the entire Western Sahara territory.”

The White House also urged the sides in the Western Sahara conflict to return to the negotiating table under the framework of Morocco’s plan for autonomy for the Sahrawi people of Western Sahara.

The US plans to open a consulate in Dakhla, in Western Sahara, which the Moroccan Foreign Ministry said would have “a primarily economic vocation.”

Kushner said recognizing Moroccan sovereignty in the Western Sahara was “something that seemed inevitable at this point; is something that we think advances the region and helps bring more clarity to where things are going.”

Following the announcement, President Trump spoke with King Mohammed VI of Morocco. According to a readout provided by the White House, “the leaders discussed cooperation in the fight against the coronavirus, ways to minimize its economic impact, and common interests in critical regional issues.”

“During the conversation the King agreed to resume diplomatic relations between Morocco and Israel and expand economic and cultural cooperation to advance regional stability,” the White House said in a statement.

King Mohammed told Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas in a phone call on Thursday that Rabat stands by a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, a royal court statement said.

The king added that negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians are the only way to reach a final, lasting and comprehensive solution to the conflict.

King Mohammed also highlighted his commitment to a two-state solution, as well as the importance of freedom of worship in Jerusalem, during his conversation with Trump.

The White House, not Netanyahu, informed Foreign Minister Gabi Ashkenazi and Defense Minister Benny Gantz of the developments with Morocco several weeks before they were made public, contrary to the UAE, Bahrain and Sudan deals in which they were told at the last minute.

Ashkenazi said “today is another great day for Israeli diplomacy, a day of light befitting the holiday of Hanukkah.

“Renewing relations between Israel and the Kingdom of Morocco is an important part of the Abraham Accords that reflects the deep and longstanding friendship between the nations. I call on more nations to join the Abraham Accords’ circle,” he stated.

Ashkenazi added that he would like to light Hanukkah candles at the Israeli embassy in Rabat next year.

Ambassador to the UN Gilad Erdan invited Morocco’s envoy in Turtle Bay to a Hanukkah candle-lighting ceremony.

Moroccan-born law professor Shimon Shetreet, a minister in the governments of Yitzhak Rabin and Shimon Peres, founding president of the World Union of Sephardi Jews and a declared candidate in the race for 11th president of the State of Israel, was delighted by the announcement, calling it “a great blessing.”

He anticipated that Israelis of Moroccan background would be happy over this development because “all Moroccan Jews have an emotional attachment to what used to be their homeland.”

Morocco was open to Israeli visitors before the normalization announcement, and Shetreet has led several delegations to Morocco. If there is a rabbi with the delegation, he recites memorial prayers in Hebrew for the King Hassan II who had been visited by both Rabin and Peres and was on good terms with them.

Iran not the problem in Middle East, says Russian Ambassador

“The problem in the region is not Iranian activities,” Russian Ambassador Anatoly Viktorov said at the Russian Embassy in Tel Aviv. “It’s a lack of understanding between countries and noncompliance with UN resolutions in the Israel-Arab and Israel-Palestinian conflict.”

Asked if the relatively limited scope of Israel’s conflict with the Palestinians destabilizes the region more than Iran does through proxies around the Middle East, like the Houthis in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon, Viktorov balked at the notion of Iranian funding the Shi’ite terrorist group.

“Israel is attacking Hezbollah; Hezbollah is not attacking Israel,” he added, referring to Israel bombing Iranian and Hezbollah and weapons convoys in Syria.

Viktorov said he has seen the tunnels from Lebanon into Israel, which Hezbollah operatives have used to attempt to attack Israel, and argued there is “no proof Hezbollah created the tunnels.”

The ambassador said Israel must “not attack the territories of sovereign UN members.”

Asked whether this is a change in the position, by which Israel gives Russia advanced notice before it attacks Iranian positions near the Syria-Israel border, Viktorov said no, because “coordination is about the safety of the Russian military in Syria.” However, he added, “there is no way that we are approving any Israeli strikes on Syria, never in the past and never in the future.”

With regard to recent International Atomic Energy Agency reports that Iran has developed more centrifuges to a further extent than permitted by the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), as the 2015 Iran nuclear deal is known, Viktorov said he does not agree that Iran has violated the agreement.

“The first step was made by... our American colleagues who unfortunately decided to quit the JCPOA [in 2018],” he said. “They quit the plan and that allowed the Iranian side to undertake some steps which are not in full compliance with the plan, which is unfortunate as well.”

Though Viktorov would only call Joe Biden “the possibly elected president” of the US, pointing out that he was only “appointed by the press” and not officially declared the victor, he said Russia “took note of some statements” that Biden seeks to rejoin the JCPOA.

If the US returns to the deal, “it will make many things simpler,” he said. “It will be helpful to reduce concerns and allow the Iranians to develop a peaceful atomic energy program and allow [the IAEA] to look at what is going on in the military sphere.”

“Maybe some provisions could be modified,” he said, in reference to Biden’s statements that he will strengthen the JCPOA, “but it’s a matter of negotiation with the interested parties, the Iranian authorities.”

As for whether Russia would sell arms to Iran after the UN arms embargo was lifted earlier this year, he said: “Iran is a sovereign state, why not? I am not familiar with specific plans; it’s a matter of negotiations.”

Viktorov said Russia is supportive of the Abraham Accords, in which Israel established diplomatic relations with the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Sudan, and said “any move towards interaction is a positive development, in of itself.”

Still, he said, “Israel should sit down and talk about how to take everybody’s legitimate concerns into account and not create alliances and blocs against somebody else,” an apparent reference to partnerships with Gulf states against Iran.

“We strongly believe that the Palestinian question should not be put aside. The normalization should not replace a Palestinian-Israeli settlement because this problem will remain and will continue to endanger not only the countries and peoples of the region but also many others around the globe,” he stated, while calling for a two-state solution.

Viktorov warned that the continuing Israeli-Palestinian conflict is “allowing terrorists to recruit more supporters into their ranks.”

Russia’s offer for Israel and the Palestinians to hold direct negotiations in Moscow still stands, as well as a suggestion to hold an international conference on the matter, he added.

Viktorov also spoke of his country’s efforts to combat COVID-19, saying that massive vaccination began this week in the Moscow region and will be distributed to all regions of the Russian Federation.

“We are sure our vaccine is not the worst in the world,” he said of doubts about the Russian inoculation.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Russian President Vladimir Putin discussed the matter in a phone call on November 16, and since then, Israeli and Russian authorities have been in contact coordinating the delivery of 1.5 million doses to Israel, he said.

“We feel the intention of our Israeli colleagues to diversify the use of vaccines in Israel is a good approach,” Viktorov said.

How OPEC Sees Oil Market In 2021?

Last week, Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), in conjunction with some Russia-led oil producers, agreed to increase oil output by 500,000 barrels per day (BPD) in January 2021. The oil markets rallied, because there were some concerns that OPEC could increase production by 2 million BPD.

There was reportedly a lot of disagreement among OPEC members prior to the announced agreement. The United Arab Emirates reportedly pushed hard for a larger production increase, which it argued the global oil market could absorb.

The global oil markets have rallied over the past six weeks, driven primarily by news that vaccines will soon be available to fight the COVID-19 pandemic. The much anticipated end to the pandemic offers some hope of recovery in global oil demand that has plummeted since the start of the pandemic.

OPEC members certainly want to take advantage of this spike in prices, but the reality is that oil demand is probably still a few months away from bouncing back substantially. In fact, given the precarious state of the US economy — and the fact that it will be late winter at the earliest before a substantial portion of the population is vaccinated — US oil demand may not return to normal until the second half of 2021.

That poses a risk that OPEC is putting more oil into an already oversupplied market, with the risk that this will send oil prices down yet again. So what could be OPEC likely strategy?

Analysts can get an idea by looking at OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report. The report projects that global economic growth is going to contract by 4.3% in 2020, but 2021 forecast projects global growth of 4.4%.

While OPEC expects final 2020 oil demand to be 9.8 million BPD, lower than 2019, it projects oil demand to bounce back by 6.2 million BPD in 2021. OPEC expects the strongest demand growth in 2021 from India (14%), China (9%), the US (7%), and Europe (7%).

We can look at OPEC’s expectations for oil supply growth in 2021 and see why some members are pushing for a greater production increase. After non-OPEC oil supply contracted by 2.5 million BPD in 2020, OPEC projects that non-OPEC supply will expand by less than one million BPD in 2021. OPEC had cut production by nearly 10 million BPD as the pandemic grew, and producers are anxious to recapture some of those production cuts.

If OPEC forecast is correct, then the world could face an oil supply shortage in 2021. Therefore, some of the members are asking for a greater production increase.

 

Why is Israel hiding news of killing of senior Mossad commander, Fahmi Hinavi?

According to Veterans Today, a senior Mossad commander, known with his Arab name, Fahmi Hinavi is reported to have been shot dead in Tel Aviv on December 5, 2020, apparently in retaliation to the killing of Iranian scientist Mohsen Fakhrzadeh assassination. Israel has not yet officially confirmed it.

No western or Israeli media dared to speak about it for fear that the Zionist settlers, panicked that they are already at the idea of ​​having to pay the price of the blood of the Iranian, begin to make links between this liquidation and two other similar liquidation cases produced in recent days at X and Y and to think that the “Resistance” is much closer to them than the blows suggest.

Things started to get out of hand and social networks started disseminating images of a shooting that would have everything to look like “a response”. The attackers approached the vehicle of Officer Hinavi while he had stopped at a red light before unloading their machine gun and then leaving. The media tried to pass the “guy” by a quidam, victim of a family quarrel but the presence of Mossad forces and security services even before the police arrived at the scene left no doubt

The big question, does the liquidation of Hinavi have any connection with the assassination of Fakhrizadeh, seven days rather while the latter was traveling in his car not far from the Iranian capital Tehran? 

Possible and the blow would be much cleaner, if the Mossad took 20 years to have Fakhrizadeh and this, not with the help of a commando composed of 12 assassins as suggested by the press in their excess of enthusiasm, but by a “remote-controlled machine gun”, Hinavi was himself liquidated in the middle of the street, by “several attackers” who “did it most easily”.

Since the assassination of the senior Iranian scientist, there were reports of a real earthquake within the intelligence apparatus and the Israeli armed forces which accused the Netanyahu-Cohen couple of having acted against Iran without them.

It is even said that the Minister of War Gantz, whose Chief of Staff repeats to whoever wants to hear that Israel is ready for all Iranian war scenarios, refuses to assume “militarily” the consequences of “Netanyhau’s act” since Israel would be “ruined” at the “first Iranian missile fire” or its “proxies”

A sign of existing tensions, even though so far he boasted of having designated Fakhrizadeh’s name as a target to be shot in 2018 and finally managed to get it, Netanyahu appeared on the screen of the American Hudson Institute to accuse Iran of accusing Israel of any event that occurs there. Visibly embarrassed to have been questioned about the murder of November 27, he launched: “the Iranians are accusing us of everything true or false.”

In short, for the past week Israel has been in a mess and the temptation is great in any way, including self-mutilation, to “ease the pressure”. Self-mutilation would be welcome. Moreover, an Iranian response would go well beyond the Hinavi cases. On Thursday, a general alert was raised at the Dimona nuclear reactor in the Negev, the Tel Aviv regime having warned its “old and new employees” against “the danger” which now awaits them at the turn of every street, every alley or even when they were at home.

The response promised by Iran paradoxically comes to be grafted to that of Hezbollah for the murder of “Kamel Mohsen” to thus widen the “circle of anguish” of the Zionist soldiers to “researchers”, “academics “, to the” Think Tankists “, … of Israel, Nasrallah having already promised the bullet from his snipers to the Israeli military, Iran having sworn that his” response “will be” painful and precise “.

And Iran will strike Israel …
Cowardly Murdered Fakhri Zadeh: The Misstep of Too Much
Sign of the hell that the Zionist entity saw, Israel Hayom attacked Thursday against the cyberwar units of the army, target Saturday, a few hours after the assassination of Fakhrizadeh, of the super hackers of BlackShadow: “these are people who demand bitcoin from us by threatening to publish the data of thousands of clients of insurance companies, including officers, officials, military, academics … Israelis. A first ransom amount reaches a million dollars. .but one has the impression that it is only a decoy and that this intermittent reappearance of BlackSadow has something with Iran … “

In August 2020, the Zionist army, on high alert on the Northern Front and waiting for Hezbollah to fire, engaged in a ridiculous maneuver by sending its units to hunt ghosts and claiming to have neutralized an Israeli commando operation. At the time, all intelligence sources laughed at an Israel which, well aware of its military and intelligence flaws, was carrying out shoddy “False Flags” since a “false flag” operation was intended in principle to be given to the strongest the pretext of attacking the weakest … But here again the Zionist regime intends to reverse the principles … clumsily. Fakhrizadeh is worth more than a thousand thousand Hinavi … he is worth all of Israel and more …

Saudi Prince Turki bin Faisal slams Israel

Saudi Prince Turki bin Faisal accused Israel of colonialism and apartheid. “All Israeli governments are the last of the colonizing powers in the Middle East,” bin Faisal said at the International Institute for Strategic Studies’ Manama Dialogue in Bahrain’s capital.

The Saudi prince accused Israel of establishing an “apartheid wall” in the West Bank, of “demolishing homes as they wish, and assassinating whoever they want,” of having 20 nuclear weapons and of “denying non-Jewish residents equality under law. What kind of democracy is that?” he said.

He reiterated statements from Saudi King Salman and Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman (MBS) that Riyadh would only establish diplomatic relations with Jerusalem if the latter accepted the 2002 Arab Peace Plan, which involves a full withdrawal to the 1949 Armistice Lines, a Palestinian capital in Jerusalem and a “fair settlement for Palestinians refugees,” which is generally understood to be a euphemism for allowing some to live in Israel.

Prince Turki said that only after making peace with the Palestinians “can we together meet the other colonizing pretender that boasts of its control of Arab capitals, Beirut, Damascus and Sanaa.”

Foreign Minister Gabi Ashkenazi was taken aback by the Saudi prince’s tone, as were his Bahraini interlocutors, who had invited them to a panel on cooperation and partnerships.  Ashkenazi chose not to escalate and merely expressed “regret for the comments” Prince Turki made. “I don’t think they reflect the spirit and the changes taking place in the Middle East,” Ashkenazi added.

He also thanked Saudi Arabia, saying that without the kingdom’s approval, the Abraham Accords, in which Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates normalized ties with Israel, could not have happened. Most of Ashkenazi’s remarks focused on the hope that the Abraham Accords would bring a better future to the Middle East, and called for more countries to join.

 “The months to come will be significant in the future of the region,” Ashkenazi added, a possible reference to Biden’s policies when he enters office next month.

Ashkenazi also called on the Palestinians to enter direct negotiations with Israel without preconditions.

“We believe that Israel moving from annexation to normalization is a window to resolve this conflict,” he stated.

In response to a question soon after, Prince Turki called settlements “a precondition” and suggested that they should all be removed before Israel enters negotiations with the Palestinians.

World moving away from fossil oil and gas

The fight against climate change and the need to curb were already prominent features of government plans. The pandemic has accelerated the momentum as governments pledged all kinds of “Green Deals” and green stimulus packages for economic recovery. All the major oil companies in Europe also announced net-zero emissions targets by 2050 or sooner, committing more investments in renewable energy and other low-carbon energy solutions. 

Yet, all the pledges from government and corporations are just tiny fractions of the true cost of the energy transition. If the world is to come anywhere close to limiting global warming to 2 degrees Celsius or below, it will need, collectively, a bare minimum of US$30 trillion to US$40 trillion of investment in energy systems and de-carbonization of industries where emissions are notoriously hard to abate such as steel and cement making.

Oil giants

Big oil companies have been frequently lambasted for trying to burnish their green credentials through half-hearted investments in renewables. That might have been true for much of the past decade, but it appears to be changing as the oil and gas majors have started putting down big money into clean energy. For instance, European oil majors including BP, Royal Dutch Shell, Eni SpA, Total SA and Norwegian Equinor ASA have already invested billions of dollars in renewable energy and made big clean energy commitments. Yet, Big Oil just can’t seem to catch a break, with stocks of oil and gas companies that are investing heavily in renewables being punished by the markets.

A good case in point is BP, one of the oil majors with some of the largest clean energy commitments. BP has announced plans to achieve net-zero status by 2030 by dramatically increasing its renewables spending. BP stock has, however, cratered 48% in the year-to-date, considerably worse than Europe’s oil and gas benchmark STOXX Europe 600 Oil & Gas Index (SXEP) which is down 32% in the year-to-date or even the Energy Select Sector Fund (XLE) which has lost 41%. 

BP’s European peer Shell has probably done more than any other supermajor as far as investing in renewable energy goes. Recently, Shell CEO Ben van Beurden told investors that the company no longer considers itself an oil and gas company but an energy transition company. Shell has been vocal about the shift to renewables, frequently issuing the clarion call for the industry to switch to cleaner energy sources. In 2016, Shell had announced an ambitious goal to invest up to US$6 billion in clean energy projects by 2020.

US Automakers

A group representing major automakers vowed to work with President-elect Joe Biden on efforts to reduce vehicle emissions. John Bozzella, who heads the Alliance for Automotive Innovation representing General Motors Co, Volkswagen AG, Toyota Motor Corp, Ford Motor Co and most major automakers, said the group “looks forward to engaging with the incoming Biden administration ... to advance the shared goals of reducing emissions and realizing the benefits of an electric future.”

Biden has made boosting electric vehicles (EV) a top priority and pledged to spend billions to add 550,000 EV charging stations. He also supports new tax credits for EV purchases and retrofitting factories for EV production.

 “The long-term future of the auto industry is electric,” Bozzella said in a statement after automakers held a virtual meeting. “We are investing hundreds of billions to develop the products that will drive this electric future, and we are committed to working collaboratively.”

Ford urged automakers to consider backing a framework deal with California on vehicle emissions in a bid to reach industry consensus before Biden takes office, but automakers did not immediately take that step.

Last week, GM abruptly announced it would no longer back the Trump administration’s ongoing effort to bar California from setting its own vehicle emissions rules. In October 2019, GM joined Toyota, Fiat Chrysler and other automakers in backing President Donald Trump in the California fight.

Environmental Working Group President Ken Cook said, “by continuing to support this futile fight, Toyota and Fiat Chrysler are signaling their disregard for cleaning our air, curbing the climate crisis and saving motorists millions at the gas pump.”

Ford, Honda Motor Co, Volkswagen and BMW in July 2019 struck a voluntary agreement with California on reducing vehicle emissions that is less stringent than Obama-era rules but higher than the Trump administration’s rollback .

Denmark to phase out oil and gas production

Denmark's parliament has voted to phase out North Sea oil and gas production by 2050. The plan includes cancelling the country's eighth licensing round, which has attracted lackluster interest since its launch in 2018, and all future rounds.

"It is incredibly important that we now have a broad majority behind the agreement. There is no longer any doubt about the possibilities and conditions in the North Sea," Danish climate and energy minister Dan Jorgensen said.

Denmark will continue to review two outstanding applications in the eighth round from UK-based Ardent Oil to ensure "stability", Jorgensen said. But any licences awarded will be subject to the 2050 cut-off date for oil and gas extraction. Total, the largest operator in Denmark's upstream sector, has already withdrawn from the round.

Denmark's decision to end North Sea production comes six months after parliament set a legally binding target to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 70% by 2030.

Denmark began producing oil and gas in its sector of the North Sea in 1972. It has 19 oil and gas fields, 15 of them operated by Total on behalf of the Danish Underground Consortium (Duc), three operated by the UK's Ineos and one by US firm Hess.

The latest figures from the Danish Energy Agency put Danish crude production at 71,500 b/d in October and gas output at 130.9mn ft³/d. Production has been constrained since the Tyra field and its satellites were shut down for a redevelopment project in September last year. The project is not expected to be completed until the second quarter of 2023, having been delayed by a year by the Covid-19 pandemic.

Is OPEC getting control over supply and price of crude oil, once gain?

The contraction of oil industry in the United States this year means the OPEC members probably won’t need to worry too much about losing market share for some time. But the group has a few challenges to consider at the upcoming crucial summit, for the first time in years the shale boom won’t be at the top of the list.

A devastating global pandemic and a reckoning with Wall Street appear to have broken the resolve of the shale wildcatters who made the US the world’s biggest oil producer. Years of breakneck growth, at the expense of crude kingpins in the Middle East and Russia, seems to be coming to the end. If there was ever any doubt, it’s now abundantly clear who has the upper hand in the global oil market.

It is believed that OPEC has got control over oil prices to a large extent. The US oil output will be around 11 million barrels a day in 2021, about the same as it is now. Experts don’t see growth until 2022, 2023, and prospects are lean that the US shale industry will post significant growth.

At the start of 2020, OPEC plus efforts to control prices were facing increasing difficulties. The breakthroughs in horizontal drilling and fracking that ushered in the shale revolution made it look as though US production growth might never end. Output surpassed 13 million barrels a day for the first time in February 2020.

After COVID-19 hit, people around the world stopped driving and flying and the oil market crashed. President Donald Trump brokered a historic deal with OPEC in April to remove almost a 10th of global production from the market. He said the US contribution would come in the form of market-driven cuts.

That pledge was delivered faster than most predicted, and it made a huge difference. Investors who were already tiring of the shale industry’s cash-burning spree retreated from the sector, and several producers went bankrupt. Before the summer was over, the US output had collapsed by 3.4 million barrels a day.

Output from shale wells typically declines in a matter of months, therefore, new ones need to be drilled and fracked just to maintain production at existing levels.  A recent uptick in drilling and fracking doesn’t seem to be enough to ensure production growth.

Since hitting bottom in the summer, the number of rigs searching for crude in shale fields has increased by 69 to 241 lately, still down from 683 in March. 

Similarly, the number of fracking crews in the once vibrant Permian Basin straddling Texas and New Mexico has increased to 63, an improvement from a meager 20 in June. But that’s less than half the 146 teams that were pumping mixtures of water, chemicals and sand into wells in January to release oil from shale rock in the area. 

It seems that the US has gone from being a thorn for OPEC to being an unofficial member of the cartel’s alliance with Russia and other producing nations. Since June, benchmark US oil prices have been remarkably stable, hovering around US$40 a barrel.

While shale’s retreat has made OPEC’s life easier, for the US oil industry it’s been brutal. There have been 43 bankruptcies of exploration and production companies this year through October, according to a report. Shale may be down but it’s certainly not out, though. The US is still an oil superpower, and will remain so for years to come. And there’s always the possibility that higher prices will get explorers drilling and fracking relentlessly like before.

Joe Biden reaffirms support for JCPOA, vows to engage Iran

Joe Biden has said that he still stands by his views on the 2015 Iran nuclear deal that were articulated in a mid-September op-ed, but a US return to the deal would be “hard.” In an interview with The New York Times’ columnist Thomas Friedman, Biden addressed a variety of domestic and foreign policy issues, including the Iran nuclear deal, which President Donald Trump quit on May 8, 2018.

Asked whether he still stands by his views on the Iran deal that he expressed in a September 13 op-ed for CNN, Biden answered, “It’s going to be hard, but yeah.”

This is the first statement on Iran; Biden said in the op-ed that he will return to the nuclear deal, officially known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

“I will offer Tehran a credible path back to diplomacy. If Iran returns to strict compliance with the nuclear deal, the United States would rejoin the agreement as a starting point for follow-on negotiations. With our allies, we will work to strengthen and extend the nuclear deal's provisions, while also addressing other issues of concern,” then-presidential candidate Biden said.

According to Friedman, the view of Biden and his national security team is that once the deal is restored by both sides, there will have to be, in very short order, a round of negotiations to seek to lengthen the duration of the restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program — originally 15 years — as well as to address Iran’s regional activities.

The columnist also said that the Biden team may involve Iran’s Arab neighbors, namely Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, in follow-on negotiations on Iran's regional activities.

“Ideally, the Biden team would like to see that follow-on negotiation include not only the original signatories to the deal — Iran, the United States, Russia, China, Britain, France, Germany and the European Union — but also Iran’s Arab neighbors, particularly Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates,” wrote Friedman.

A few days ago, Friedman wrote a column urging a Biden administration to address Iran’s precision-guided missile before restoring the JCPOA. But this column seems to have failed to influence the Biden team. “But for now they insist that America’s overwhelming national interest is to get Iran’s nuclear program back under control and fully inspected,” Friedman admittedly said.

Biden himself expressed less enthusiasm about addressing Iran’s missiles. “Look, there’s a lot of talk about precision missiles and all range of other things that are destabilizing the region,” Biden noted, adding that “the best way to achieve getting some stability in the region” is to deal “with the nuclear program.”

If Iran gets a nuclear bomb, Biden claimed, it puts enormous pressure on the Saudis, Turkey, Egypt and others to get nuclear weapons themselves. “And the last goddamn thing we need in that part of the world is a buildup of nuclear capability.”

Then, Biden said, “In consultation with our allies and partners, we’re going to engage in negotiations and follow-on agreements to tighten and lengthen Iran’s nuclear constraints, as well as address the missile program.” The US always has the option to snap back sanctions if need be, and Iran knows that, he added.

It’s worth noting that Iran has always said that it is not seeking to develop a nuclear bomb, and it even considers this kind of bomb religiously indecent.

UN Security Council session on JCPOA

The United Nations Security Council will hold a briefing session on the latest development in the West Asia region, including the situation around the 2015 Iran nuclear deal.

“Before the Christmas break, the Council will hear briefings on the Middle East [West Asia] peace process, including the question of Palestine, and the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action on Iran’s nuclear program,” the UN said in a statement on Tuesday.

Council President Jerry Matthews Matjila said the Council will not discuss the recent assassination of prominent Iranian nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh because the 15-member UN body has not received any request concerning the assassination.

“As for the recent killing of an Iranian nuclear scientist, he said the Council has not received any request to act on that matter, but the meeting on Iran’s nuclear program later this month will be held in ‘a new global environment,’” the UN statement said.

Israel usually informs the US administration of information about its targets and the operations it intends to carry out prior to carrying out, but he refused to confirm whether the Israeli government had done so this time.

Iran's retaliatory step against the Americans will make Biden's job difficult regarding lifting sanctions on Tehran and launching the diplomatic process.

Additional sanctions will be imposed on Tehran within the next week and the following, as Trump has given Pompeo a “Carte Blanche” to continue imposing a policy of maximum pressure on Tehran over the next two months.

But slapping new sanctions on Iran could ratchet up tensions in the region especially after the assassination of the Iranian nuclear scientist significantly raised the tension in the region.

The UN has called for restraint hours after the assassination of Fakhrizadeh.

“We have noted the reports that an Iranian nuclear scientist has been assassinated near Tehran today. We urge restraint and the need to avoid any actions that could lead to an escalation of tensions in the region,” Farhan Haq, the deputy spokesman for the UN secretary-general, said.

Also on Friday, Iranian Ambassador to the United Nations Majid Takht Ravanchi sent a letter to the UN secretary-general and Security Council, warning against any “adventurist” steps by the US and Israel against Iran in the waning days of the Trump administration.

Warning against any adventurist measures by the United States and Israel against my country, particularly during the remaining period of the current administration of the United States in office, the Islamic Republic of Iran reserves its rights to take all necessary measures to defend its people and secure its interests," Ravanchi said in the letter.

Is the world ready to condemn murder of Iranian Nuclear Scientist?

Israel used all the four years of Trump’s presidency to entrench its systems of occupation and apartheid. Now that Joe Biden has won the US election, the assassination of Iran’s top nuclear scientist, likely by Israel with the go-ahead from the US administration, is a desperate attempt to use Trump’s last days in office to sabotage Biden’s chances of successful diplomacy with Iran. Biden, Congress and the world community shouldn’t let that happen.

On Friday, November 27, Iran’s top nuclear scientist, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, was assassinated in the Iranian city of Absard outside of Tehran. The immediate speculation was that Israel had carried out the attack, perhaps with the support of the Iranian groups.

In 2018, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu identified Fakhrizadeh as a target of his administration during a presentation in which he claimed that Israel had obtained secret Iranian files that alleged the country was not actually abiding by the Iran Nuclear Deal.

During 2010 and 2012, four Iranian nuclear scientists were assassinated that included: Masoud Alimohammadi, Majid Shahriari, Darioush Rezaeinejad and Mostafa Ahmadi Roshan. Though Israel never accepted responsibility of these murders, reports suggested that Israel, working with Iranian rebel groups, was behind the killings. The Israeli government also never denied the allegations. 

The assassination of Fakhrizadeh also follows reports that the Israeli government recently instructed its senior military officials to prepare for a possible US strike on Iran, likely referring to a narrowly averted plan by President Trump to bomb Iran’s Natanz nuclear site. Furthermore, there was a clandestine meeting between Netanyahu and Saudi ruler Mohammed bin Salman.

Israel’s attacks on Iran’s nuclear activities are particularly annoying given that Israel, not Iran, is the only country in the Middle East in possession of nuclear weapons, and Israel refuses to sign the International Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons.

Iran doesn’t have nuclear weapons and it has opened itself up to the most intrusive international inspections ever implemented. Adding to this absurd double standard is the intense pressure on Iran from the United States, a nation that has more nuclear weapons than any country on earth.

Given the close relationship between Netanyahu and Trump, and the seriousness of this attack, it is very likely that this assassination was carried out with the green light from Trump himself. Trump has spent his time in the White House destroying the progress the Obama administration made in easing the conflict with Iran. He withdrew from the nuclear deal and imposed an unending stream of crippling sanctions that have affected everything from the price of food and housing, to Iran’s ability to obtain life-saving medicines during the pandemic. He also blocked Iran from getting an IMF US$5 billion emergency loan to deal with the pandemic. In January, Trump brought the US to the brink of war by assassinating Iranian General Qassem Soleimani, and in an early November meeting with his top security advisors, and right before the assassination of Fakhrizadeh, Trump himself reportedly raised the possibility of a military strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities. 

After the news broke of the assassination, Trump expressed implicit approval of the attack by re-tweeting Israeli journalist and expert on the Israeli Mossad intelligence service, Yossi Melman, who described the killing of Fahkrizadeh as a “major psychological and professional blow for Iran.”

Iran has responded to these intense provocations with extreme patience and reserve. The government was hoping for a change in the White House and Biden’s victory signaled the possibility of both the US and Iran going back into compliance with the nuclear deal. This recent assassination has further strengthens the hands of Iranian hardliners who say it was a mistake to negotiate with the United States and that Iran should just leave the nuclear deal and build a nuclear weapon for its own defense. 

Iranian-American analyst Negar Mortazavi lamented the chilling effect the assassination will have on Iran’s political space. “The atmosphere will be even more securitized, civil society and political opposition will be pressured even more, and the anti-West discourse will be strengthened in Iran’s upcoming presidential election,” she tweeted.

The hardliners already won the majority of seats in the February parliamentary elections and are predicted to win the presidential elections scheduled for June. So the window for negotiations is a narrow one of four months immediately after Biden’s inauguration. What happens between now and January 20 could derail negotiations before they even start. 

Jamal Abdi, president of the National Iranian American Council said that US and Israeli efforts to sabotage Iran’s nuclear program have now morphed into Trump and Netanyahu sabotaging the next US President. They are trying to provoke Iran to accelerate nuclear work—exactly what they claim to oppose.

That is the reason US members of Congress, and President-elect Joe Biden himself, must vigorously condemn this act and affirm their commitment to the US rejoining the nuclear deal. When Israel assassinated other nuclear scientists during the Obama administration, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton denounced the murders, understanding that such illegal actions made negotiations infinitely more difficult.

The European Union, as well as some important US figures have already condemned the attack. Senator Chris Murphy pointed out the risks involved in normalizing assassinations, how the killing will make it harder to restart the Iran Nuclear agreement, and how the assassination of General Soleimani backfired from a security standpoint. Former Obama advisor Ben Rhodes tweeted that it was an “outrageous action aimed at undermining diplomacy,” and former CIA head John Brennan called the assassination “criminal” and “highly reckless,” risking “lethal retaliation and a new round of regional conflict,” but rather than putting the responsibility on the US and Israel to stop the provocations, he called on Iran to “be wise” and “resist the urge to respond.”

Many on Twitter have raised the question of what the world response would be if the roles were reversed and Iran assassinated an Israeli nuclear scientist. Without a doubt, the US administration, whether Democrat or Republican, would be outraged and supportive of a swift military response. But if we want to avoid escalation, then we must hope that Iran will not retaliate, at least not during Trump’s last days in office.

The only way to stop this crisis from spiraling out of control is for the world community to condemn the act, and demand a UN investigation and accountability for the perpetrators. The countries that joined Iran and the United States in signing the 2015 nuclear agreement —Russia, China, Germany, the UK and France—must not only oppose the assassination but publicly recommit to upholding the nuclear deal. President-elect Joe Biden must send a clear message to Israel that under his administration, these illegal acts will have consequences. He must also send a clear message to Iran that he intends to quickly re-enter the nuclear deal, stop blocking Iran’s US$5 billion IMF loan request, and begin a new era of diplomacy to dial back the intense conflict he inherited from Trump’s recklessness.

Human rights groups condemn sale of US arms to UAE

Human rights groups and arms control organizations have condemned sale of arms by United States to the United Arab Emirates, asking the Congress to block the mega deal. The groups signed a letter opposing the sale of US$23 billion worth of missiles, fighter jets, and drones, raising concern about the UAE’s role in the Saudi-led devastating war on Yemen and Libya conflict.

"The hope is to stop these sales altogether," said Seth Binder, advocacy officer at the Project on Middle East Democracy, who spearheaded the effort.

"But if that is not possible in the short term, this sends an important signal to the incoming Biden administration that there is a diverse group of organizations that oppose delivery of these weapons."

The letter, sent to US lawmakers and the State Department, said the planned arms sale would fuel continued harm to civilians and exacerbate humanitarian crises due to conflicts in war-wracked Yemen and Libya.

Signatories include human rights organizations from the region, including the Cairo Institute for Human Rights Studies and Mwatana for Human Rights.

The US-UAE arms deal includes F-35 fighter jets, Reaper drones, air-to-air and air-to-ground missiles, and more than 14,000 bombs.

The sale was approved following a US-brokered agreement in September in which the UAE agreed to normalize relations with Israel.

Several US senators, including Murphy, earlier this month proposed legislation to halt the weapons sale to the UAE, setting up a showdown with President Donald Trump weeks before he is due to leave office.

Trump administration officials briefed the Senate Foreign Relations Committee about the deal on Monday evening.

Democratic Senator Chris Murphy, a sponsor of the resolutions of disapproval, responded later on Twitter: "Just a mind blowing number of unsettled issues and questions the Administration couldn't answer. Hard to overstate the danger of rushing this."

Murphy had said, "I support the normalization of relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, but nothing in that agreement requires us to flood the region with more weapons and facilitate a dangerous arms race."

Iran’s Zamaninia elected as chairman of OPEC Executive Board for 2021

Iranian Deputy Oil Minister for International Affairs and Trading Amir-Hossein Zamaninia, who is the country’s governor at the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has been elected new Chairman of the OPEC Executive Board for 2021. The decision was made during the 180th meeting of the OPEC Conference which was held on Monday, the meeting lasted for more than four hours.

The mentioned Board is the executive body of OPEC which directs the Organization's affairs, implements the decisions made at meetings, reviews and decides on the reports submitted by the Secretary General, submits reports and recommendations to the ministerial meetings, prepares the budget for each calendar year and submits it to the ministerial meetings for approval and etc.

In the meeting, extending the oil output cut of 7.7 million barrels per day was discussed. Although, some OPEC members complained that some members had not complied with the previous decisions, there was a consensus that the organization’s complaint was not in a way that could prevent an extension of the existing deal.

OPEC members’ main concern was how non-OPEC members would cooperate? Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh said in a press conference following the 180th OPEC meeting which was held through video conference.

The 12th meeting of the oil and energy ministers of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, a grouping known as OPEC plus, was due to be held on Thursday in Vienna but it was postponed to Thursday December 03, 2020

“What is important is that we negotiate and have the patience to reach a conclusion,” Zanganeh said announcing the adjournment of the ministerial meeting.

Jebel Ali Port receives first shipment from Israel

According to media reports, Jebel Ali Port, a major Dubai port has received the first export shipments from Israel. The shipment has been sent by Emirati firm Kimoha from Ashdod of adhesive tape manufactured by Israeli company Davik. The shipment is the first to arrive in the United Arab Emirates and even more notably at one of the busiest ports in the world, since the Abraham Accords normalized ties between the two countries.

“We would like to congratulate Kimoha Entrepreneurs FZCO for adding value to the UAE and Israel diplomatic relations by initiating trade association with Israel-based establishments,” Dubai Ports World (DP), which operates the port, CEO and chairman Sultan Ahmed bin Sulayem said in a statement.

“And we are glad that Jebel Ali Port could be an intrinsic part of the transfer from Israel to the UAE. We take great pride in being involved in this momentous achievement that is integral for both countries. This operation is just the beginning of trade and commerce activities. We are confident that this move will be the starting point for trade activities that will have a significant impact on both economies, and the business in the region. We are in complete support of the leadership of the UAE and will do everything in our capacity to foster trade ties with Israel and accelerate economic growth.”

“It is an honor to be able to partake and initiate a significant move that will greatly influence the trade exchange in the UAE and Israel,” said Kimoha chairman Kiran Asher.

“This move will go down in the history of the two countries. We cannot thank DP World enough for helping us to make this transfer a seamless process. We have been running operations from Jafza since 1988, and I must say that it is an ideal location to set industries and connect with the world. Emirates NBD, the largest banking group in the UAE supported this transaction seamlessly.”

DP World is playing an active role since ties between Israel and the UAE were normalized. In early November, it teamed up with Israel Shipyards to try to win the tender to run Haifa Port, and the company is an expert at maximizing efficiency of harbors, even one as relatively small as Haifa's.

What after Fakhrizadeh assassination?

If the reports are true that Israel was involved in Mohsen Fakhrizadeh’s killing, the manner in which it was carried out – in broad daylight and without anyone being caught – shows again Israel’s tremendous capabilities, that is something Iran would be wise to take into consideration while weighing its next moves.

Friday’s assassination of Iran’s top nuclear scientist Fakhrizadeh led to predictable concern from those who prepared the Iranian nuclear deal in 2015. Former CIA head John Brenner was furious, “This was a criminal act and highly reckless,” he tweeted. “Such an act of state-sponsored terrorism would be a flagrant violation of international law and encourage more governments to carry out lethal attacks against foreign officials.”

Ben Rhodes, President Barack Obama Deputy National Security Advisor for Strategic Communications was indignant, “This is an outrageous action aimed at undermining diplomacy between an incoming US administration and Iran,” he tweeted. “It’s time for this ceaseless escalation to stop.”

Jeremy Ben-Ami of the left-wing J Street lobbying group was furious. “The assassination of a senior Iranian nuclear scientist appears to be an attempt to sabotage the ability of the incoming Biden administration to re-enter the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), as well as the chances of further diplomacy, either by limiting the political leeway of Iranian officials who want to restore the deal, or by triggering an escalation leading to military confrontation,” he said.

Each of these reactions pushed the same theme: whoever carried this out – and all fingers are pointed at Israel – intended to limit President-elect Joe Biden’s space for maneuvering and sabotage any possible diplomacy with Iran.

The unstated subtext of this type of criticism is the same, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu still leading the way, trying to sabotage diplomatic efforts to solve the Iranian nuclear dilemma and undermine the Biden presidency from the get-go.

But that is wrong, the assassination of Fakhrizadeh is not about Biden, it is about Israel’s nearly three-decade effort to prevent Iran from getting a bomb. It is Israel trying to demolish a threat for its existence.

The assassination is just the latest in a series of steps over the last three decades taken to prevent Iran from getting the ability to do it. The killing of Fakhrizadeh will set back Iran’s efforts to attain the bomb because he was a key player in the nuclear program.

Iran has been unable to realize its nuclear ambitions up until now, though it has been trying since the end of the Iran-Iraq War in 1988, is not because of a lack of trying, or because they are any less capable than any of the other countries that have nuclear weapons. Rather, it’s because of actions that Israel and others in the West have taken over the years to bar their path.

These actions included setting up straw companies selling damaged goods to the Iranians so that when they would spin their centrifuges, they would blow up; computer worms and cyber sabotage; mysterious explosions; and assassinations.

Most people, when imagining how Israel might stop Iran from getting a bomb, imagine it will be via bombs or missiles falling from the skies, as was the case when Israel destroyed the Iraqi nuclear reactor in 1981, or the Syrian one in 2007. It has to be a new strategy and a new game plan in 2020.

Iran has been kept from reaching its nuclear goals through numerous actions, of which the killing of Fakhrizadeh is just the most recent one, through one big dramatic explosion. To present the killing of Fakhrizadeh as a move intended simply to make things more complicated for Biden is to fail to fully appreciate the degree to which the Israeli government genuinely believes a nuclear Iran is an existential threat that must be stopped at all costs.

The killing need not undermine the diplomacy that Biden might want to pursue. The hit was carried out under the outgoing Trump administration. If Iran does indeed want to turn over a new leaf with the new administration – which it is very much in its interests to do – then it would only be counterproductive to let this killing stand in the way.

Israeli perspective that the JCPOA is a non-starter because under its terms, Iran will be able to produce as much nuclear fuel as it wants in 2030 is worth noting. And as steps such as Friday’s assassination show, Israel – if it was involved – is not going to sit idly by and allow what it deems to be an existential threat to develop, regardless of who is the US president.