Is OPEC getting control over supply and price of crude oil, once gain?

The contraction of oil industry in the United States this year means the OPEC members probably won’t need to worry too much about losing market share for some time. But the group has a few challenges to consider at the upcoming crucial summit, for the first time in years the shale boom won’t be at the top of the list.

A devastating global pandemic and a reckoning with Wall Street appear to have broken the resolve of the shale wildcatters who made the US the world’s biggest oil producer. Years of breakneck growth, at the expense of crude kingpins in the Middle East and Russia, seems to be coming to the end. If there was ever any doubt, it’s now abundantly clear who has the upper hand in the global oil market.

It is believed that OPEC has got control over oil prices to a large extent. The US oil output will be around 11 million barrels a day in 2021, about the same as it is now. Experts don’t see growth until 2022, 2023, and prospects are lean that the US shale industry will post significant growth.

At the start of 2020, OPEC plus efforts to control prices were facing increasing difficulties. The breakthroughs in horizontal drilling and fracking that ushered in the shale revolution made it look as though US production growth might never end. Output surpassed 13 million barrels a day for the first time in February 2020.

After COVID-19 hit, people around the world stopped driving and flying and the oil market crashed. President Donald Trump brokered a historic deal with OPEC in April to remove almost a 10th of global production from the market. He said the US contribution would come in the form of market-driven cuts.

That pledge was delivered faster than most predicted, and it made a huge difference. Investors who were already tiring of the shale industry’s cash-burning spree retreated from the sector, and several producers went bankrupt. Before the summer was over, the US output had collapsed by 3.4 million barrels a day.

Output from shale wells typically declines in a matter of months, therefore, new ones need to be drilled and fracked just to maintain production at existing levels.  A recent uptick in drilling and fracking doesn’t seem to be enough to ensure production growth.

Since hitting bottom in the summer, the number of rigs searching for crude in shale fields has increased by 69 to 241 lately, still down from 683 in March. 

Similarly, the number of fracking crews in the once vibrant Permian Basin straddling Texas and New Mexico has increased to 63, an improvement from a meager 20 in June. But that’s less than half the 146 teams that were pumping mixtures of water, chemicals and sand into wells in January to release oil from shale rock in the area. 

It seems that the US has gone from being a thorn for OPEC to being an unofficial member of the cartel’s alliance with Russia and other producing nations. Since June, benchmark US oil prices have been remarkably stable, hovering around US$40 a barrel.

While shale’s retreat has made OPEC’s life easier, for the US oil industry it’s been brutal. There have been 43 bankruptcies of exploration and production companies this year through October, according to a report. Shale may be down but it’s certainly not out, though. The US is still an oil superpower, and will remain so for years to come. And there’s always the possibility that higher prices will get explorers drilling and fracking relentlessly like before.