“They feel that
under Joe Biden the United States has not been a reliable partner, especially
since the close, personal relationship that existed with the Donald Trump and
since the United States is indirectly talking to Iran in Vienna,” Mehran
Kamrava told The Tehran Times.
Though US-Persian
Gulf ties are deep-rooted when it comes to military contracts, the
Russia-Ukraine conflict shows that Arab states in the region may leave United
States alone in some cases.
The UAE and Saudi
Arabia appear to be sending a message to the US, said Kristian Coates
Ulrichsen, a Middle East fellow at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public
Policy. Talking to Al Jazeera last month, Ulrichsen said they are going to act
upon their interests and not what the US think their interests are.
Giorgio Cafiero,
CEO of Gulf State Analytics, a Washington, DC-based geopolitical risk
consultancy, also said, “Syrian President Al-Assad coming to the UAE, shortly
after the (Persian) Gulf Arab country opted to abstain from a UN Security
Council resolution condemning the Russian invasion of Ukraine last month, tells
us that the Emiratis are very serious about asserting their autonomy from the
United States.”
“For Arab states,
Russia is an important actor with whom they can hedge their bets with the
United States.”Arab states, especially Saudi Arabia and the Emirates, felt they
lost a close friend in the White House after Donald Trump was defeated in the
2020 elections.
“Clearly, the
Saudi and Emirati leaderships do not have the same kind of relationship with
Biden that they had with Trump, and they feel slighted,” Kamrava notes.
“Also, given the
very close relationship between both Saudi Arabia and the UAE with Russia,
neither wants to risk alienating President Putin,” adds professor from
Georgetown University.
Following is the
text of the interview:
Do you
think the Ukraine war would expand to other countries?
Since the war is
currently ongoing, it is difficult to guess whether or not it will expand and
if it will usher in a new order in the region.
Are we
going to witness a new order in the region?
Clearly, we see
the emergence of diverging trends, however, and the gap between the EU and the
US on the one side and Russia and a number of other countries, like China and
Iran, on the other.
Saudi and
UAE leaders declined calls with Biden amid the Ukraine conflict. What are the
implications of such a reaction?
Clearly, Saudi
and Emirati leaderships do not have the same kind of relationship with Biden
that they had with Trump, and they feel slighted as a result. They feel that
under Biden the United States has not been a reliable partner, especially since
the close, personal relationship that existed with the Trump White House is
gone and since the US is indirectly talking to Iran in Vienna. Also, given the
very close relationship between both Saudi Arabia and the UAE with Russia,
neither wants to risk alienating President Putin.
Why do the
Arab states prefer not to be engaged in the US-Russia conflict while they are
allied with Washington?
The Arab states
do not want to jeopardize their increasing closeness with Russia. For them,
Russia is an important actor with whom they can hedge their bets with the
United States, and as a result, they are reluctant to take positions that are
overtly antagonistic toward Russia.
China and
the many Arab states avoided condemning Russia for launching war on Ukraine. Do
you think the Ukraine crisis will turn into a new form of confrontation between
the West and the East?
That might indeed
be the case, but, again, it is too early to tell. Clearly, we are seeing
tectonic shifts occurring in regional alignments. But how these shifts will
turn out is hard to tell. There are new and emerging powers in the East, the
most notable being China and South Korea, and, at least in relation to South
Korea, it would be difficult to say that it is not part of the Western or
American orbit. Nevertheless, there is no doubt that Russia is seen in the US
and in the EU as a “disruptive actor” and China is perceived as a major
technological competitor.
Do you see
a kind of hesitation in Persian Gulf Arab state's betting on America in the
defense system? Do they think that America left them alone, especially in the
Yemen war?
I think the US will remain to be an outside security provider for the southern
states of the Persian Gulf in the near future. The personal relationship between
Persian Gulf rulers and US President may change, but there are deeper
structural factors that for the time being tie the two sides together. Some of
the more important of these include deep military and security ties, with the
Persian Gulf states continuing to prefer American weaponry and equipment;
massive and growing economic and commercial ties between the two sides, with
the US having emerged as a favorite destination of money and investments going
from the Persian Gulf; and continued political and economic ties. In addition
to all this, there is also heavy psychological reliance on the US as a security
provider. Therefore, there is no indication that the US military presence in
the Persian Gulf region will be lessened at all in the near future.
Courtesy: The
Tehran Times
