Examining the likely facets of Pakistan’s new foreign policy

The stage is being set for the oath taking of Imran Khan as Prime Minister of Pakistan. Concurrently the names to head finance, foreign affairs and defense ministries are being finalized. These three ministries are critically important as these will set the pace of economic development and contain cross border terrorism.

In one of my earlier posts I have outlined the top priorities for Asad Umar, the finance minister in waiting. While he is expected to keep his focus on two prime deficits, budget and trade, the influx of foreign exchange to meet debt servicing will be dictated directly by foreign policy. Most probably funds will be released on the instruction of Saudi Arabia and United States or China will have to extend more loans to facilitate Pakistan payoff loans obtained in the past.

The US, which in the past had been more than gracious in advising International Monetary Fund (IMF) to lend money to Pakistan, now seems very hostile. In the prevailing scenario, Pakistan has no option but to approach other friendly countries, Saudi Arabia and China that can extend soft-terms loans to avoid default.

Reportedly, Islamic Development Bank (IDB) has been instructed by Saudi Arabia to lend US$4 billion to Pakistan after Imran Khan takes oath as country’s next prime minister. The offer was made immediately after a statement by Asad Umar that Pakistan would decide on whether to seek a bailout from IMF or friendly nations such as China and Saudi Arabia. A point yet to be clarified is whether the loan by IDB would be in addition to a three-year US$4.5 billion oil financing facility for Pakistan activated in July 2018.

Umar has expressed intention to seek a US$12 billion bailout package from IMF. However, after the response of the US president, other contingency arrangements have to be made. The PML-N government, which also enjoyed godfathering of Saudi Arabia, has left Pakistan with huge burden of external loans resulting in balance of payment crisis and massive depreciation of Pak rupee.

It goes without saying that global and regional super powers have special interest in Pakistan. The US is heavily dependent on Pakistan for logistic support for the combat troops stationed in Afghanistan. Pakistan also provides transit facilities to Afghanistan. In the prevailing scenario ‘do more’ mantra of the US goes on but it can’t afford to antagonize Pakistanis to disrupt NATO supplies. Despite being a super power, the US suffers from ‘bitten once shy twice’ situation that happened after attack on Salala post.

While the US considers Pakistan a partner in war against terrorism only, China has substantial economic interest in Pakistan. At no point in time China can afford a situation where pace of work on China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) may be jeopardize. Over the last one year Chinese loans have kept Pakistan afloat and support of any magnitude in the future can’t be ruled out. As the economic interest of China grows in Pakistan, it will also have to extend military support to save the country from any aggression. While President Trump may not be aware of this fact but the US administration is fully cognizant that any retaliatory move will allow China to get sold footing in Pakistan.

Whether people accept it or not, Saudi Arabia, India and Iran are three regional super power and all the three wish to maintain cordial relationship, but at their own terms. A past mistake of India to bid farewell to Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline project has caused it colossal losses. Even investment of millions of dollars in the construction of Chabahar Port in Iran by India has not provided it and efficient and effective access to Afghanistan. India is keen on the construction of Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline, which will also pass through Pakistan. Therefore, India is obliged to maintain minimum working relationship with Pakistan. In this endeavor it is support by Iran also.

Maintaining cordial relationship with Iran and Saudi Arabia is a must for Pakistan. The country can’t afford any hostility with either of the countries because it encourages terrorists to use its province, Baluchistan for cross border terrorism under the disguise of Baluchistan liberation movement. Some of the quarters allege that in the past terrorist using Baluchistan as safe sanctuary were provided fund and arms by the US through the courtesy of Saudi Arabia.

Saudi Arabia has enjoyed good relations with Nawaz Shariff and its concerns with the change of government are natural. Imran Khan has expressed to adopt a more independent course and also expressed willingness to mediate in improving relationship between Saudi Arabia and Iran but, it becomes a nightmare for Saudi Arabia that Pakistan develops cordial relationship with Iran.

In a phone call with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, Khan has accepted an invitation to visit Tehran. Reportedly, Saudi Crown Prince has also expressed intention to visit Pakistan soon in a bid to strengthen bilateral relationship.

“We want to improve ties with Iran. Saudi Arabia is a friend who has always stood by us in difficult times. Our aim will be that whatever we can do for conciliation in the Middle East, we want to play that role. Those tensions, that fight, between neighbors, we will try to bring them together,” Khan said.

It is not an easy situation for Khan to handle. Saudi Arabia has welcomed US President Donald Trump’s withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear agreement that curbed Iran’s nuclear program and his efforts to economically strangle the Islamic republic with harsh sanctions.  Saudi Arabia has not forgotten that Pakistan’s parliament rejected in 2015 a Saudi request to authorize Pakistani troops to participate in its troubled military campaign in Yemen.

Appointment of Ms. Shirin Mazari as Defense Minister, also becomes a source of concern for the monarchy. She had openly criticized in a series of tweets the fact that Pakistani general Raheel Sharif commands the 41-nation, Saudi-sponsored Islamic Military Counter Terrorism Coalition (IMCTC). She had asserted that Pakistan should not cooperate in Saudi Arabia’s alleged pursuit of a US agenda and should instead forge ties to Iran and India.

Khan will have to follow the collective wisdom of maintaining cordial relationship with global and regional powers. However, he will also have to safeguard Pakistan’s sovereignty. Pakistan should not be made subservient to any country for seeking bailout packages. He will also have to nurture the culture of living within means, rather than enjoying extravaganzas on borrowed money.

America’s Embarrassment

I am an early bird and having entered 65th year, I usually get up around 5.00am, even on the weekends. Reading leading stories in the mainstream media, is a must for writing my blog, Geo Politics in South Asia and MENA. I also go through select articles, to which I am a subscriber because these are eyes opener. That is the reason I often term mainstream western media ‘dishonest’. 

This morning I read an interesting blog by Margaret Kimberley titled ‘America’s Embarrassment’.  I have picked up a few paragraphs from this and copy paste these.

• Donald Trump is a national embarrassment. Corporate media pundits have declared this statement to be true and millions of people are in agreement. As a candidate and as president Trump has certainly deviated from the norms of acceptable public behavior, but how much does that really matter?
• Many Americans love to brag that theirs is “the richest country in the world.” There are certainly big banks, rich individuals and trillions of dollars in the treasury but the masses of people rarely benefit from this wealth. This country routinely ranks near the bottom when compared to other “developed” nations in any measure of how it treats its people. It is now considered a “second tier” nation in terms of the well being of its citizens.
• It is certainly unusual to have such a decidedly boorish president. Trump literally pushes other presidents aside, engages in public feuds with celebrities and makes anyone an enemy who dares to oppose him or his policies. He makes up terms like “bigly” and “modern presidential” and excoriates the press when they criticize him. Condemning this kind of behavior is the lowest hanging fruit.
• Trump can be blamed for quite a lot during his first six months in office. His travel ban against citizens of seven nations is an unconstitutional exercise in Islamophobia and has been struck down by federal judges. Trump bans Libyans from traveling to the United States, but Obama destroyed that country and created an ongoing humanitarian disaster.
• The concluding remarks are most interesting, “The list of reasons to be embarrassed about America is very long and it existed before Trump was inaugurated. He has surely added to that ledger, but legitimate cause for concern shouldn’t be pushed aside in favor of phony outrage about optics. President Trump is an ill- mannered, impulsive, happily uninformed bigot. Most of his predecessors were better behaved and followed rules of public relations. But they filled the jails, ended the right to public assistance, killed millions of people abroad, kept wages low and used a variety of schemes to make the rich even richer. Despite his obvious shortcomings Donald Trump is not the worst among them. And that is the most embarrassing fact of all”.

I request the readers of this blog to read the details by clicking https://blackagendareport.com/trump_embarrassing_so_what

President Donald Trump: An Ace Arms Seller

At the first destination, Saudi Arabia, U.S. President Donald Trump succeeded in signing an arms sale agreement worth US$350 billion.  He is likely to secure more orders on visits to Egypt, Jordan, Turkey and Israel. Arms sale in on the themes: campaign against ISIS and terrorism, challenge of Iran and turmoil in collapsing states of Syria and Yemen.  But the top item on the agenda is Israel-Palestinian peace process, which the president said was a top priority for his administration, through its recognition by Arabs.

Trump’s rhetoric is based on “Iran is a bigger threat as compared to Israel”.  The U.S. assault started with Iraq’s attack on Iran soon after the Islamic Revolution. Arab monarch’s were made to believe (by the U.S.) that the fall of Iran’s monarch was the beginning of their downfall. The war continued for almost a decade. Later on, Iraq was prompted to attack Kuwait, one of the best friends of Saudi Arabia.

In the aftermath of 9/11 U.S. attacked Afghanistan and Iraq. Further stringent sanctions were imposed on Iran. However, the superpowers agreed to withdraw these sanctions on the condition that Iran would roll back its nuclear program. To project Iran as enormous threat, it has been dragged into proxy wars to weaken it and to portray that “Iran is not a regional superpower”.

The need to create this perception aroused, after the emergence of Hezbollah, which smashed Israel’s military superiority.  Therefore, Iran has to be constantly engaged in wars. A question remains unanswered who initiate the assault, Iran or others? The western media has been arousing anti Iran sentiments by capitalizing Arab-Iran hatred.

The ultimate objective, which the U.S. wishes to achieve is “Recognition of Israel by Arabs”. The process started when Muhammad Anwar el-Sadat was president of Egypt and continued till his assassination on 6 October 1981. It seems most of the Arab are already convinced and are desperate for making the formal announcement. However, they have not forgotten the fate of Anwar Sadat.

One of the expectations is that at the end of Trump’s visit the formal announcement will come. Therefore, all the guns have to be aimed at Iran, which is often considered “the game spoiler”. But one has to try to find an answer to the question what is the cost of this recognition? Why Saudi Arabia  has to pay US$350 billion to give a boost to the U.S. economy?

United States: Boon or busted after Trump

As a student of Geopolitics in South Asia and MENA, I have repeatedly held the United States responsible for the turmoil in the region. I had even gone to the extent of saying that United States is the biggest warmonger. The super power loves to initiate a conflict that goes to the extent of anarchy and civil war.

This also invites other contenders to take part in proxy wars. While the sole purpose of United States is to sell its arms, it wants to keep others countries busy in fighting wars, rather than focusing on the welfare of their people. This also gives it a chance to keep the countries dependent on the World Bank and the IMF.

After having gone through what has been happening in the United States, after Donald Trump taking oath as new President, I am obliged to say that till recently the United States has been fanning hatred in the world, but now it is facing the same. Demonstration on the inaugural day and subsequent events clearly shows ‘Emergence of anarchy in the United States’. There are growing fears within the United States these demonstrations may turn violent.

Over the years the United States has been breading militants and using them in various countries to promote its agenda of keeping the countries in constant state of war. The worst examples are Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan. The blood thirsty mercenaries from around the world have landed in these countries. It may also be said that these militants have been moved from one country to another only to promote sale of arms.

One often wonders how the rebel groups get money. Even a cursory look at Afghanistan and MENA shows that poppy and petrodollars are used for purchasing arms. Various oil fields have been taken over by rebels, who are selling oil to the developed nations. The center of drug has shifted from golden triangle to Afghanistan.

Spy agencies of the United States have been alleging Russia for rigging election. This on one hand proves the failure of these agencies and on the other hand breakout of anarchy in the country that has been creating turmoil around the world.

Over the years, United States has been ringing alarm of nuclear assets going into the control of militants in various countries. One may ask the same question, will nuclear assets of United States be in safe hands, if the present demonstrations turn violent?

US troops to stay in Afghanistan forever

I started writing blogs under Geo politics in South Asia and MENA about five years back. The objective was to share my views with global readers, particularly the Think Tanks operating in the US. Most of the topics I picked up over the years were: 1) proxy wars in Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria, 2) imposition of economic sanctions on Iran for decades, 3) use of crude oil as weapon, 4) melodramas in the name of change of regime, 5) creations of phantoms like Taliban, Al Qaeda and ISIS and 6) dishonest western media.

The title of one of my second blog written in August 2012 was Will US pull troops out of Afghanistan? Despite having little knowledge about international relations or geopolitics at that time, my conclusion was that the US will never pull its troops out of Afghanistan. My conclusion was based on the fact that presence of the US troops in Afghanistan provides it a safe haven for undertaking cross border actions in Pakistan, Iran, China and some of the energy rich Central Asian countries.

I had deliberately avoided mentioning drug as one of the prime reasons for the US troops for occupying Afghanistan, but one of the readers of my blog was prompt in raising this point. If one thinks with a cool head this may be the key reason because it gives control on drug trade and also the money to be paid to militants for killing the innocents ruthlessly and to keep the world permanently under fear. It may also be said that Afghanistan has become a nursery for growing mercenaries and people from around the world get training in the rugged mountains of Afghanistan. They are also paid from the money earned from cultivation of poppy.

Having born and grown in war-ridden Afghanistan, the locals have become ‘blood thirsty’ and suffer from restlessness unless they kill a few people every day. Ironically they not only kill their own countrymen but also go to places where conflicts have been created by the super powers to satisfy their lust.

The conclusion of my today’s blog is that after fighting two world wars, super power have decided to fight proxy wars, sell arms to the governments where rebel groups have been created by them, use income from drugs and oil for buying arms. The job becomes easier through propagation of regime change mantra.

These super powers are among the sponsors of the UN, created for restoring peace in the world. However, now the only role of Security Council is to grant permission for attacking a country chosen for the proxy war. Two of the worst examples are Afghanistan and Iraq and many other countries are also the victim of super powers. Usually the military dictators are made head of state and often the drama of sham democracy is also staged.

Next US President: Hillary or Trump

The fast changing poll results are creating more confusion, rather than providing a credible forecast about the outcome of US presidential elections being held on 8^th November 2016. Around the world Muslims and particularly Pakistanis are anxiously awaiting the official announcement. I posted a blog on Wednesday exploring the possible implication of the outcome on Pak-US relationship. The bottom line was that whoever wins the election ‘status quo’ will remain, meaning the relationship will get good if Pakistan’s services are needed or will get bad if the US focus shifts to other regions.

Some of the readers of my blogs asked a funny question, who will win the election? I wondered if they believe I have a crystal ball or I am a fortune teller. Despite knowing my inadequacies I sat down to explore the probability. Born in a third world country, having witnessed domestic, South Asia and MENA geopolitics for nearly half a century I have also started believing in conspiracy theories. Based on my observations, I tend to say that Hillary Clinton could be the next US president. The reasons are following:

The US ruling junta has created a history by electing a black and half Muslim President. This time they will create another history by electing a woman as US president.

It is often said that in third world elections are engineered. I tend to say that the elections are also engineered in the US and the active players are part of electoral system. This time the female members of the system will play a decisive role. I say this because often the female members have not played a key role, some reports say they prefer to abstain from casting their vote.

A closer look at the outcome also indicates that the elected president should be from Republican. However, it the ruling elite are adamant at making Hillary the next president, they will not hesitate in violating this norm. If they want to continue proxy wars, maintain US hegemony in South Asia and MENA and even South China Sea they have to elect Hillary who is known as ‘queen of status quo’.

   

Can oil prices continue upward trend?

One of the questions haunting exploration and production (E&P) companies is how soon and how much oil prices will go up by end of this year? Te reply is simple, hike in price is dependent on how much output producers are willing to relinquish.

Therefore the first point to explore is who will take the lead in cutting down output first.

The western media is still keeping the hype that Saudi Arabia has to cut its output but the biggest stumbling blocks are Iran and Iraq. It continues to spread disinformation that since Saudi Arabia and Iran continue to be the worst foes, any reduction in output by Saudi Arabia remains a remote possibility.

According to a Reuters report, "Oil rose to a one-year high on optimism regarding a future agreement between OPEC and major producers to restrict output"

It also said, "Significant doubts whether they (production cut targets) will actually be fulfilled due to the rivalry between OPEC members, who are fighting aggressively for global markets share, could prevent an effective deal.”

As per report, Goldman Sachs said in a note to clients on Tuesday that despite a production cut becoming a "greater possibility", markets were unlikely to rebalance in 2017. The rationale was, "Higher production from Libya, Nigeria and Iraq is reducing the odds of such a deal rebalancing the oil market in 2017 and even if OPEC producers and Russia implemented strict cuts, higher prices would allow U.S. shale drillers to raise output.

Initially, I had a point of view that most of the shale oil producers were unable to continue production below US$50 barrel due to accumulated losses. Now, believe that they have withstood the test, which is evident from the persistent increase in tnumber of active rigs. However, the number of operating rigs is still less than 25% of total installed rigs.

Moral of the story is that shale oil producers are more anxiously awaiting hike in price but out of desperation they want to increase the number of operating rigs and snatch Saudi share as early as possible. They have invested billions of dollars hoping that oil price would not fall below US$50/barrel. The crash that began in 2014 has shattered their dreams. Even geopolitical turmoil in MENA has failed in deterring OPEC members, mostly located in the region where proxy wars have been going on for more than last two years.

Has Pakistan-India animosity yielded any good?

During August both Pakistan and India will celebrate their  independence from the British Raj in 1947. Over the years both the countries have fought various wars, accumulated piles of conventional arms and also attained the status of ‘Atomic Powers’. They may boost of spending billions of dollars every year on buying arms but bulk of the population of both the countries live below the poverty line. My question to the rulers and citizens of both the countries is; has animosity between Pakistan and India yielded any good?

My own reply is a big no and I am sure that people from both the countries also share the same feelings, except the hawks present on either side of the border. These hawks are the product of British Raj that ruled this part of the world by following ‘divide and rule’ policy. While leaving the subcontinent it left a thorn, Kashmir. Those who don’t believe in my point of view must read the misdeeds of Toney Blair, British Prime Minister that led to attack on Iraq, a country still inferno after nearly 15 years.

While the citizens of Pakistan, India and Bangladesh may have some doubts about the economic potential of their homelands, British Raj knew the real worth when it made Indian subcontinent its colony. Even at that time the area was known as ‘Golden Sparrow’. In modern day term the area has robust agriculture and industry, treasures of minerals hard working people and above all a market comprising of billions of people.

Kindly allow me to say that had India and Pakistan not been spending billions of dollars on purchase of arms and instead using it for the development of infrastructure, educating their children and health care, these countries would have been ‘economic super powers’ and ahead of Malaysia, Singapore, Korea, Japan and even China. Spending least on education, healthcare and providing ‘safe drinking water’ have pushed these countries deeper in economic disorder, social malice and extremism.

If one looks at the most stable and fast growing economies, Germany emerges as the most outstanding one. When the Germans decided to unify East and West Germany, many critics termed it ‘dooms day’ for West Germany. However, it will be very hard to find the rudiments of East Germany now. I also say that one of the reasons Britain opted to quit European Union is also the legacy of British Raj. People of United Kingdom still don’t understand that they are no longer the super power. However, to prove their superiority they keep on interfering in the affairs of the countries commonly known as ‘Members of Common Wealth’.

Lately, anti-government demonstrations in Indian-Kashmir have attained a new hype. Hawks from both sides of the border claim that Kashmir belongs to them. The super powers and even the UN have failed in asking what the people of Kashmir want’. If one could recalled the issue of Sudan was resolved quickly and prior to that Cyprus trauma overcome, only because the super powers had the consensus.

One may ask why the super powers are not serious in resolving Kashmir issue. My own understanding is that super powers love to create disputes, develop rebel groups, provide them funds and arms to keep their armament factories running at full capacity.

Having watched the recent wars in Afghanistan, Iraq, Yemen and Syria and earlier wars in Vietnam and Korea, I will not hesitate even for a second to call these ‘Proxy Wars’. The irony is that rulers become a puppet of super powers and ultimately meet the fate of Saddam Husain, Anwar Sadat, Ziaul Haq, Indra Gandhi, Mujeeb-ur-Rehman and the list can continue.  

While the proxy wars bring nothing except destruction to the countries where these are being fought, super powers continue to grow stronger and have ample funds to promote proxy war. However, they usually hide their ugly faces behind the multilateral lenders and NGOs and talking about refugees issue. It is never too late to mend. People of the third world must realize that super powers thrive on proxy wars and they get nothing but destruction and killing of innocent people.

Are Pakistani politicians the only corrupt?

After having read the latest news about wealth of Pakistani politicians kept abroad I am neither surprised nor dismayed. Over the years many people in the country have highlighted this issue and some were even assassinated as the politicians never wanted this Pandora’s Box to open. One can still recall the statement of a famous columnist of Dawn newspaper who had once said ‘all are thieves’. A storm was created in a cup of tea and soon business was run as usual.

My own analysis of the situation is that around the world many politicians who are corrupt are made part of ruling junta because internal and external forces pick them to follow an agenda. History is full of such names but even a closer look at some of the politicians who were termed ‘corrupt’ was picked up, groomed and assigned specific tasks. Once the ‘mission’ was accomplished each one faced a fate as described by the spy agencies and underworld ‘eliminate an agent when he becomes redundant’.

I will begin the analysis from my own country, Pakistan. I will not talk about history spread over more than six decades but the present situation. Nawaz Sharif and Asif Ali Zardari, the chives of country’s two leading political parties have been accusing each other of corruption. Many references were filed and cases were brought to the apex courts but neither was convicted.

Three military dictators, installed by external forces were also not spared. The external forces bribed the dictators for towing their policies. These developed countries, who claim to be the champions of democracy kept them in power to attain their ulterior motives. One can say with reasonable confidence that the amounts they received from the super powers were also kept outside Pakistan.

The most notorious name of recent history is Saddam Hussain of Iraq, who fought war with Iran, after the Islamic Revolution for a decade and also attacked Kuwait. Once he became redundant he was hanged and no one has any clue of his wealth kept outside Iraq.

One just can’t ignore Anwar Sadat of Egypt; he played a key role in recognition of Israel by many Muslim countries after ‘successful’ negotiation at Camp David. Once the objective was achieved he was assassinated while taking salute on the National Day.

Many mysteries are associated with the sudden death of Indian Prime Minister after Tashkent Agreement, assassination of Sheikh Mujeeb-ur-Rehman soon after creation of Bangladesh, killing of King Faisal of Saudi Arabia by his own nephew after formation of OIC, shooting of Indian Prime Minister Indra Gandhi by her own guard after Shimla Agreement, assassination of Benazir Bhutto and alleged ‘judicial murder’ of Zulfikar Ali Bhutto.

One has all the reasons to believe that the rulers are installed, toppled and even assassinated by the super powers to achieve their vested interest. They use different jargons for bringing the select in power and get rid of them in the name of ‘regime change’. The only regret is that the champions of democracy indulge in these ‘dirty politics’ but people of their own country hardly raise voice against them.