Analysts forecast proving wrong

Mass vaccinations were supposed to spur a major shift in spending away from goods, toward services. The thinking was that as more people traveled, dined out and attended entertainment venues, the less they would spend on merchandise. That would, in turn, help remove some of the strains on the supply chain., but that didn’t happen.

In part because the delta wave of the virus kept massive pent-up demand skewed toward merchandise and added further strain to supply chains.

Jobs

Another basic assumption was that as the pandemic receded and schools returned to in-person learning — freeing up home-bound parents — millions more Americans than have done would return to the job market. More workers would mean fewer bottlenecks and more supply, validating the “transitory” predictions for high inflation. The bitter reality is as of October, the participation rate, which measures those employed or looking for work, has recovered less than half of its pandemic-related collapse. 

Energy

With the fossil fuel industry having cut back investment over the years, in part amid pressure from tilt toward ESG investing and in part thanks to having over-invested in the previous cycle, energy companies haven’t been able to meet rising global demand. Labor shortages have only made things worse. This led to energy prices rising 30% from a year earlier, the largest annual advance since 2005. Gasoline is up nearly 50%. The price of electricity in October increased 6.5% from the same month a year ago, the most since March 2009.

Pricing-Power

Global competition and consumer expectations for stable prices had long eroded companies’ ability to pass along higher costs. There was no US inflation surge during the escalating tariff hikes with China, for example. But that’s all changed. Large companies have pushed through price increases after having to boost wages to lure workers, along with pay for higher input costs.

Forecasting inflation “has been incredibly challenging,” says Matthew Luzzetti, Chief US economist at Deutsche Bank AG. “And risks remain skewed to the upside for the inflation outlook.”

The Federal Reserve has been off in its forecasts just like everyone else, and will need to reassess next month, when policy makers update their projections.

Credit, though, to Lawrence Summers and Mohamed El-Erian, both contributors to Bloomberg, who have been warning of a prices problem for a while. 

Return of Iran to oil market doesn’t pose any threat to producers

The ongoing JCPOA discussions are being watched by international oil markets closely. The possibility of Washington rejoining the international Iranian nuclear agreement is still in doubt, but the Biden Administration appears to be considering the move. Iran has indicated that it will only rejoin JCPOA if US sanctions on its main economic sectors, namely oil and gas, are lifted.

Some of the analysts are worried about the possible negative repercussions of Iranian oil on global oil supply and oil prices. The current global oil market is gaining stability, but a complete recovery is far from certain. It is only due to Saudi Arabia’s actions that markets have been able to rebound.

One of the main reasons Saudi Arabia has been able to make these unilateral production cuts is that other producers have been kept out of the market. Both Iran and Venezuela have seen their production constrained by international sanctions, while Libya and Iraq are suffering from internal conflicts.

Without these players in the market, Saudi Arabia is able to successfully control oil markets. The lifting of Iranian sanctions under JCPOA deal worries Arab producers, US shale, and Russia. These worries can be termed ‘unfounded’.

Some analysts argue that a JCPOA success could destabilize oil and gas markets, increase price volatility, and even see a return of oil gluts. There is a major flaw in this narrative because it is based on the assumption that the sanctions have successfully removed Iranian oil from markets. It is certainly true that Iranian volumes are no longer at historic highs, but looking at volumes reaching markets, Iranian oil is still very visible.

Oil and tanker trackers have been showing again and again that Iranian oil exports are not only very flexible, but also increasingly aggressively. The IEA reported that China never completely stopped its purchases of Iranian oil. The OECD energy watchdog also said that Iran’s estimated oil sales to China in the fourth quarter of 2020 were at 360,000 barrels a day (bpd), up from an average of 150,000 bpd shipped in the first nine months of last year.

Just before the JCPOA discussions restarted, Iran increased exports to China to around 600,000 bpd. OPEC also reported that Iran's crude oil output increased in March 2021 by 6.3%. OPEC report published lately showed that Iran’s crude output had surged by 137,000 bpd. OPEC data also showed that Iran’s average output in 2020 hovered at 1.985 million bpd, down from 2.356 million bpd recorded in 2019 and 3.553 million bpd in 2018. Major Asian clients in China, India, and elsewhere are much too happy to take Iranian volumes based on their very low price. To forget or diminish the role of Iranian oil at present in the market is a major error.

A JCPOA success would not only threaten oil prices, but could also lead to an increase in Tehran’s revenue base. Currently, Iranian oil export successes are based on illegally or partly “not-known” sales to customers, at lower prices but still generating cash. If sanctions on oil exports are removed, Tehran won’t only see higher export volumes but it will also stop selling its crude at a discount. Iranian oil could, and most probably will, be priced at normal market price levels.

In the short term, a potentially higher revenue stream could be generated, based on higher volumes. At the same time, Tehran should take into account the fact that customers will not be willing maybe to take Iranian volumes at higher prices. The current demand-supply situation doesn’t allow for millions of additional barrels to hit the market.

In the coming months, Iranian volumes will not increase at all, regardless of how successful the JCPOA discussions are.  With overall Iran oil export potential of around 2 million bpd, current exports are estimated around one million bpd, the markets will not be shocked. Demand is still weak, and it is being threatened again as COVID’s 3rd wave in Europe is blocking the opening of markets, and Asia’s emerging giant India is recording an increase of COVID casualties. 

Iran’s oil potential and exports are unlikely to derail the market. Looking at the OPEC plus strategies and cohesion, another one million bpd on the market coming from Iran will not be a shock to the system. The market is not able to take more volumes, while Iranian clients are unlikely to be willing to increase costs. It will be interesting to watch how investors decide to price these events into oil markets. Looking at the current fundamentals, OPEC plus leaders are still the real power players in the oil market.