India and Pakistan: Identify Common Enemy

There is a harsh reality often ignored — the people of India and Pakistan have suffered more from poverty, disasters, and neglect rather than from each other’s armies. Yet hawks continue to see the other side of the border as the greatest threat. Generations have grown up believing that patriotism means suspicion, that strength lies in weapons, and that peace is weakness. But what if the real enemy has never worn a uniform or carried a flag?

Both nations spend billions of dollars on arms, missiles, and surveillance — while hospitals run short of beds and medicines, schools crumble, and farmers take their own lives under the weight of debt. A mother in Karachi and a mother in Kanpur worry about the same things: a child’s future, safe drinking water, a stable income, a life with dignity. Yet both are told that the biggest danger lies across the border, not within their own streets.

The real enemies are hunger, illiteracy, unemployment, floods, droughts, and corruption. These enemies do not need visas; they cross borders every day. Floodwaters destroy homes in Sindh and Assam alike. Farmers in Punjab — on both sides — pray for rains and fair prices. Youth in Lahore and Lucknow struggle to find jobs despite degrees. These shared pains are louder than the slogans of hate, if only we choose to listen.

Yes, history has been bitter. Wars have been fought, lives have been lost, and wounds run deep. But must our children inherit this hostility as their only legacy? Are we destined to repeat the same mistakes simply because we are too proud to change?

Imagine a different rivalry — not of tanks and missiles, but of innovation, literacy rates, clean energy, technology, and exports. Imagine India and Pakistan competing to eliminate poverty faster, to educate every child, to heal the sick, to build green economies, to lead the world in science and discovery. That is a kind of competition the world would welcome — and our people desperately need.

True strength is not measured by how many enemies we can defeat, but by how many lives we can uplift. A strong nation is not one that frightens others, but one that gives its citizens hope.

India and Pakistan do not need to become military superpowers. They have the potential to become economic and human development giants — if only they identify their real enemy.

 

Analysts forecast proving wrong

Mass vaccinations were supposed to spur a major shift in spending away from goods, toward services. The thinking was that as more people traveled, dined out and attended entertainment venues, the less they would spend on merchandise. That would, in turn, help remove some of the strains on the supply chain., but that didn’t happen.

In part because the delta wave of the virus kept massive pent-up demand skewed toward merchandise and added further strain to supply chains.

Jobs

Another basic assumption was that as the pandemic receded and schools returned to in-person learning — freeing up home-bound parents — millions more Americans than have done would return to the job market. More workers would mean fewer bottlenecks and more supply, validating the “transitory” predictions for high inflation. The bitter reality is as of October, the participation rate, which measures those employed or looking for work, has recovered less than half of its pandemic-related collapse. 

Energy

With the fossil fuel industry having cut back investment over the years, in part amid pressure from tilt toward ESG investing and in part thanks to having over-invested in the previous cycle, energy companies haven’t been able to meet rising global demand. Labor shortages have only made things worse. This led to energy prices rising 30% from a year earlier, the largest annual advance since 2005. Gasoline is up nearly 50%. The price of electricity in October increased 6.5% from the same month a year ago, the most since March 2009.

Pricing-Power

Global competition and consumer expectations for stable prices had long eroded companies’ ability to pass along higher costs. There was no US inflation surge during the escalating tariff hikes with China, for example. But that’s all changed. Large companies have pushed through price increases after having to boost wages to lure workers, along with pay for higher input costs.

Forecasting inflation “has been incredibly challenging,” says Matthew Luzzetti, Chief US economist at Deutsche Bank AG. “And risks remain skewed to the upside for the inflation outlook.”

The Federal Reserve has been off in its forecasts just like everyone else, and will need to reassess next month, when policy makers update their projections.

Credit, though, to Lawrence Summers and Mohamed El-Erian, both contributors to Bloomberg, who have been warning of a prices problem for a while.