According to the IMF report, program implementation deteriorated after the completion of sixth review in February 2022. Amid a tense political landscape, programmed fiscal adjustment was undone and several key EFF commitments were reversed like imposition of Petroleum Levy (PDL) and grant of subsidies on petroleum products.
In June 2022, two Performance Criteria (PC) on net international reserves and the primary budget deficit requirements were not met, as well as three continuous PCs were missed.
Moreover, seven structural benchmarks were also not met. Analysts believe that fiscal deficit target of 4.6% of GDP was ambitious.
Recent floods in various parts of the country have caused major losses to human lives, infrastructure, and crops. According to Dr. Aisha Pasha, State Minister for Finance the initial estimates indicate that the losses caused by floods were close to Rs2 trillion (2% of GDP).
Considering this view, it is likely that Pakistan’s fiscal deficit will likely clock in between 6-7% of GDP for FY23.
It is also expected that IMF will consider the potential impact of floods and provide some relaxations especially if Pakistan continue to remain steadfast in implementation of reform agenda agreed with IMF.
As per the IMF country report, Pakistan Government has recently taken major steps including the completion of prior actions that led to revival of the IMF program.
It is believed that the current political setup has taken unpopular steps recently in spite of increasing political noise. This helped Pakistan got two waivers on PCs and also brought IMF program back on track.
IMF also approved Pakistan’s request to increase the size of program by US$1 billion and extend the program till June 2023 instead of September 2022.
Waivers on PCs & extension in program tenure will provide the much needed support to the Pakistan economy.
IMF has recommended Pakistan authorities to restore fiscal and debt sustainability, safeguarding monetary and financial stability and maintaining a market driven exchange rate.
IMF has projected GDP growth of 3.5% in FY23 with Current Account Deficit (CAD) of 2.5% of GDP (US$9 billion) and CPI inflation of 19.9%.
It is anticipated that GDP growth will be in the range 2.5% to 3.5% in FY23. Current Account Deficit is likely to remain less than 3% of GDP.
Though, it is early to estimate the potential impact of floods on current account but risk to upward revision in current account estimate remain (close to around US$1 billion) depending upon the crop damage and the demand to meet required demand through imports.
It is also believed that pressures on current account due to crop damage could also be somewhat compensated through: 1) economic slowdown and lower demand for imports, 2) higher remittances due to flood support from expats, and 3) increased aid and financial assistance from international community.
As per IMF, gross external financing requirement for FY23 is estimated at US$31 billion and available financing is projected at US$33 billion for FY23 as against SBP’s target of US$37 billion for FY23.
Analysts believe any additional financing requirement due to higher current account could be compensated through increased foreign aid and financial flows to the country.
On the monetary front, keeping in view the recent inflationary trend (CPI Inflation of 27.3% in August 2022) and the outlook on food prices post floods, it is likely that average inflation will also cross IMF estimate of 20%.
CPI inflation is likely to remain below 24%, keeping in view the extent of damage from recent floods and potential economic slowdown.
Analysts do not expect any further hike in interest rates in 2022. In fact, it is expected to start falling from 4QFY23.
