Trump’s approval rating has fallen to a record low, while
rising gasoline prices and disruptions to global energy supplies are adding to
public discontent. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has
complicated Washington’s efforts to stabilize oil markets, while the absence of
a credible exit strategy raises questions about the war’s ultimate objectives.
Iran, too, appears to understand the political stakes. By
keeping negotiations alive without rushing towards a settlement, Tehran hopes
to deny Trump a diplomatic victory before the elections. Its calculation is straightforward
- the longer the conflict continues, the greater the potential political cost
for the White House. Yet this strategy is not without risks, as sanctions, the
US maritime blockade and economic hardship are also hurting Iran.
The real battlefield may therefore be shifting from Iran to
the American ballot box.
For Democrats and other defenders of institutional checks
and balances, the midterms offer an opportunity to curb Trump’s political
power. Having failed to remove him through impeachment, his opponents may seek
to achieve through elections what they could not accomplish through Congress’s
removal process.
A Democratic victory would not dislodge Trump from the
presidency, but control of either chamber could strengthen congressional
oversight, obstruct parts of his legislative agenda and intensify scrutiny of
his conduct of the war.
My assessment is that Republicans face a greater risk of
losing seats than making significant gains. American voters may be less
interested in claims of military success than in the cost of the conflict, its
uncertain outcome and its impact on their daily lives.
The November 3 elections could thus deliver a powerful
message - a president may initiate a war, but he cannot dictate how voters
judge its consequences.
