The United
States is likely to commence oil exploration in Pakistan. It may be too early
to talk about the likely outcome of US entry in Pakistan’s oil and gas
exploration. However, it will be very insightful to explore, will the
story of the seven sisters be repeated in Pakistan?
The “Seven Sisters” refers to the seven major Western oil
companies (Exxon, Mobil, Chevron, Gulf Oil, Texaco, BP, Shell) that dominated
global oil production and pricing from the 1940s through the 1970s. They
exercised near-monopolistic control over oil reserves in the Middle East, Latin
America, and beyond—often exploiting weaker producer states, dictating terms of
exploration and pricing, and sidelining local sovereignty. Their dominance was
only broken after the rise of OPEC in the 1970s, when producing countries
nationalized oil resources and asserted ownership.
Similarities
to the Seven Sisters Era
Strategic Dependence
If Pakistan allows foreign companies (especially US majors)
to explore and control its oil blocks without strong regulatory oversight, it
risks repeating a dependency cycle where foreign firms repatriate profits,
leaving limited benefit for the host economy.
Geopolitical Influence
Just as the Seven Sisters shaped Middle Eastern politics, US
energy companies could wield geopolitical leverage over Pakistan’s foreign
policy, especially given its precarious IMF dependence and ties with Saudi
Arabia, China, and Iran.
Asymmetry in Bargaining Power
Pakistan’s economic weakness may force it to accept lopsided
contracts (production-sharing agreements, tax holidays, profit guarantees) in
favor of US firms.
Key
Differences Today
Rise of National Oil Companies
Unlike in the 1950s, today Saudi Aramco, ADNOC, Petronas,
CNPC and even OGDCL and PPL exist in Pakistan. They country has more leverage
to create joint ventures instead of full foreign control.
OPEC Plus and Energy Nationalism
Oil producing states are much more aware of resource
sovereignty. Pakistan could align itself with models used by Middle Eastern
producers (service contracts, technology partnerships, revenue-sharing).
Multipolar World
Unlike the US and British dominated oil order of the Seven
Sisters, today Russia, China, Gulf states, and even renewable energy
competition provide alternatives. Pakistan is not locked into only US companies.
Domestic Politics & Public Awareness
Civil society, media, and political opposition in Pakistan
can challenge exploitative deals, unlike in the early Seven Sisters era when
secrecy prevailed.
Possible
Scenarios for Pakistan
Repetition of Seven Sisters
If Pakistan grants excessive concessions, lacks regulatory
oversight, and allows oil companies to dictate terms, then yes, it risks
becoming a neo-colonial oil frontier.
Balanced Partnership
If Pakistan uses joint ventures, ensures technology
transfer, and negotiates fair production-sharing agreements, it can benefit
without ceding sovereignty.
Strategic Competition
The US entry may trigger Saudi, Chinese, and Russian
counteroffers, giving Pakistan leverage but also complicating its geopolitics.
Moral of
the story
The Seven Sisters story will only repeat in Pakistan if
policymakers repeat the mistakes of weak bargaining and short-term concessions.
If Pakistan plays smart—diversifying partners, prioritizing sovereignty, and
aligning exploration with long-term energy security—it can avoid becoming a
pawn like many Middle Eastern states were in the mid-20th century.
