Shipments of corn and barley from the Black Sea area were
hard hit, down 76% to 891,000 tons, and down 82% to 65,000 tons respectively.
However, wheat shipments were reported to be up 44% at 3million tons.
S&P noted that Black Sea agri-bulk shipments declined to
almost all import regions and territories in April including North Africa, Middle
East, Northwestern Europe, Japan, Korea, Taiwan, mainland China, Southeast Asia
and West Africa. The only region to see a rise in shipments was the
Mediterranean, with an increase in agri-bulk exports from the Black Sea region
of 15% to 1.2m tons
A report issued this week by insurers Allianz Global
Corporate & Specialty (AGCS) highlighted that the biggest impact of the war
on shipping so far had been on vessels trading to the Black Sea and
Russia, with Ukraine’s major ports, including Odessa closed by a Russian
blockade. The insurer noted that Ukraine moves 70% of its exports by sea and
some 99% of its grain exports are moved by ship.
With the war in Ukraine increasingly looking to be a drawn
out conflict there could be further negative impact on agri-bulk exports.
Pranay Shukla, Associate Director at S&P Global Market
Intelligence said, “There could also be further significant downside risks to
the Black Sea agri-bulk forecast for this year depending on how long the war
extends and if Ukraine can manage its exports from Romania and Poland, while
upside risks could arise from Russian wheat exports on expected strong domestic
wheat harvest.”
S&P currently forecasts that agri-bulk shipments from
the Black Sea region will decline 37% year-on-year to 11.2, tons in the second
quarter of 2022, and by 20%YoY to 83.9 million tons for the full year in 2022.
“The insurance
industry is likely to see a number of claims under specialist war policies from
vessels damaged or lost to sea mines, rocket attacks and bombings in conflict
zones,” explained Justus Heinrich, Global Product Leader, Marine Hull, at
AGCS. Insurers may also receive claims under marine war policies from
vessels and cargo blocked or trapped in Ukrainian ports and coastal waters.
