Jeddah Declaration: Sudanese rivals agree to protect civilians

Sudan's warring factions have committed to protect civilians and allow the movement of humanitarian aid. The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and its rival Rapid Support Forces (RSF) signed a document titled "Jeddah Declaration of Commitment to Protect the Civilians of Sudan" early Friday.

They reaffirmed their core obligations under International Humanitarian Law to facilitate humanitarian action to meet the needs of civilians.

“We affirm our unwavering commitment to the sovereignty of Sudan and to maintaining its unity and territorial integrity,” according to the joint declaration.

They welcomed the efforts exerted by Sudan’s friends who can use their relationships and good offices to ensure respect for International Humanitarian Law and for international human rights law, including by committing to this Declaration and immediately implementing it.

“We agree that the interests and well-being of the Sudanese people are our top priority and affirm our commitment to ensure that civilians are protected at all times. This includes allowing safe passage for civilians to leave areas of active hostilities on a voluntary basis, in the direction they choose,” the declaration read.

They committed to exert all efforts to ensure that these commitments—and all obligations of International Humanitarian Law—are fully disseminated within their ranks and appoint focal points to engage with humanitarian actors to facilitate their activities.

“We will enable responsible humanitarian actors, such as the Sudanese Red Crescent and/or the International Committee of the Red Cross to collect, register, and bury the deceased in coordination with competent authorities,” the declaration read.

“We will take all necessary measures to ensure that all persons acting on our instructions, direction or control abide by International Humanitarian Law, and in particular the commitments provided for in this Declaration of Commitment.”

They agreed to prioritize discussions to achieve a short-term ceasefire to facilitate the delivery of emergency humanitarian assistance and restoration of essential services, and announced their commitment to scheduling subsequent expanded discussions to achieve a permanent cessation of hostilities.

Turkey: Erdogan rival accuses Russia of deep fake campaign

Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the main election rival of Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan, issued a warning to Russia, accusing it of responsibility for the release of fake material on social media ahead of Sunday's ballot.

Kilicdaroglu, who has a slight lead over long-time leader Erdogan according to opinion polls, did not specify to which material he referred.

A third presidential candidate, Muharrem Ince, withdrew from the race on Thursday citing a faked character assassination carried out online. He gave few details.

Kilicdaroglu accused Turkey's Russian friends of responsibility for the release in this country yesterday of montages, plots, deep fake content...

"If you want to continue our friendship after May 15, withdraw your hand from the Turkish state. We are still in favour of cooperation and friendship," he said on Twitter on Thursday evening in both Turkish and Russian.

There was no immediate comment from Russian officials.

Moscow and Ankara have close ties and Russia is Turkey's largest supplier of energy. President Vladimir Putin and Erdogan hold frequent talks on issues ranging from energy to the wars in Ukraine and Syria.

In the tense campaign ahead of the May 14 presidential and parliamentary votes, political figures from both the Erdogan and Kilicdaroglu camps have complained about online accusations, including the posting of videos and photographs.

 

Iran-UAE to facilitate joint investment

Iran and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have agreed to sign new memorandums of understanding (MOUs) on the avoidance of double taxation and facilitation of mutual investment, Fars News Agency reported on Friday.

The decision was made during a meeting between Iranian Minister of Finance and Economic Affairs Ehsan Khandouzi and UAE Minister of State for Financial Affairs Mohamed bin Hadi Al Hussaini on the sidelines of the annual meeting of the Islamic Development Bank (IsDB) Board of Executive Directors in Jeddah.

During the meeting, the officials emphasized increasing cooperation in the fields of trade and foreign investment. It was also decided that appropriate measures should be implemented soon in order to sign agreements on facilitating foreign investment and avoidance of double taxation between the countries.

Pointing to the positive impact of the resumption of relations between the Islamic Republic of Iran and Saudi Arabia in the region, Al-Husseini said that the volume of trade between the two countries has increased about 40 times.

“This volume of trade in various fields indicates a natural and positive growth of relations and interactions between Iran and the UAE, and the role of the governments of the two sides is to encourage trade and facilitate it through agreements to avoid double taxation, and it is necessary to revise the existing agreements between the two countries,” he said.

Khandouzi for his part referred to the previous unfinished negotiations related to the drafting of a foreign investment agreement between the two sides, saying: “The Islamic Republic of Iran is ready to cooperate in joint profitable projects, as well as cooperation for investing in other countries.”

At the end of this meeting, Khandouzi invited his Emirati counterpart to travel to Tehran as soon as possible.

 

Pakistan Stock Exchange records 45.4%WoW decline in trading volume

The week ended on May 12, 2023 was mired with political uncertainty, at a time Pakistan needs additional financing for the successful completion of long standing 9th IMF review. The benchmark index closed the week at 41,488 points, posting 1.79%WoW decline. Participation also declined to average daily volumes of 133.52 million shares during the week, from 244.47 million shares a week ago, depicting 45.4%WoW fall.

Pakistan has assured the IMF, it will not implement cross fuel subsidy program. Foreign exchange reserves held by State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) eroded by US$74 million to US$4.38 billion as May 05, 2023, with the import cover still remaining below one month.

Other major news flows during the week included: 1) Fiscal deficit for Jul-Mar reaches 3.7% of GDP, 2) GoP raises PKR62.9 billion PIBs auction, 3) Jul-Apr remittances decline 13% to US$22.74 billion, 4) PKR plunges 5.38 against dollar to fresh low and 5) Discos seek PKR1.5 per unit QTA for 3QFY23.

The top performing sectors were: Close- End Mutual fund, Textile composite, and Textile Weaving, while the least favorite sectors were: Vanaspati & Allied Industries, Oil & Gas exploration companies, and Modarabas.

Top performing scrips were: GLAXO, SCBPL, MUREB, PIOC, and ATLH, while laggards included: PSEL, OGDC, PPL, SRVI, and HCAR.

Flow wise, individuals were the major buyers with net buy of US$1.07 million, followed by Broker Propriety trading (net buy of US$0.85 million), while foreign investors were major sellers during the week, with a net sell of US$1.14 million.

Pakistan is in very a precarious situation and further delays can’t be tolerated. World Bank along with AIIB has linked approval of US$700 million loan with the completion of pending IMF review. Political stability will dictate the market performance in the near term.

Ministry has clarified that arrangements have been made for the rollover/ repayment of US$3.7 billion debt which are due by June 30, 2023.

Analysts continue to advocate companies that have dollar-denominated revenue streams, while minimal dollar-denominated cost structures, which hedges them against any currency risk, top of the list includes Technology and E&P sectors.

 

 

US attempt to control oil movement in Gulf

The US military will work to bolster the defensive posture in the Gulf region following Iran's seizure and harassment of commercial shipping vessels in recent months, US officials said on Friday.

In the past two years, Iran has harassed, attacked or interfered with the navigational rights of 15 internationally flagged commercial vessels, officials said.

"The Department of Defense will be making a series of moves to bolster our defensive posture in the Arabian Gulf," White House spokesperson John Kirby told a news briefing.

Kirby added that in the coming weeks there would be an attempt to increase coordination and interoperability with allies in the Strait of Hormuz.

The US Navy's Bahrain-based Fifth Fleet said it was working with regional allies to increase the rotation of ships and aircraft patrolling around the Strait of Hormuz.

"Iran's unwarranted, irresponsible and unlawful seizure and harassment of merchant vessels must stop," the Fifth Fleet's commander, Vice Admiral Brad Cooper, said in a statement.

A spokesperson from the US military's Florida-based Central Command, which oversees American forces in the Middle East, said the United States was discussing options with regional partners.

"Any decisions about force posture will be made after consulting with our allies and will be consistent with the collective desire to ensure the safety and freedom of navigation for all nations," the spokesperson said.

The moves come after Iran seized a second oil tanker in a week in Gulf waters earlier this month, and the State Department called for its release in the latest escalation in a series of actions against commercial vessels in Gulf waters since 2019.

The US Navy said on May 3 the Panama-flagged oil tanker Niovi was seized by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy while passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Days earlier, Iran had seized a Marshall Islands-flagged oil tanker in the Gulf of Oman.

Kirby said the United States strongly condemns actions that threaten and interfere with commercial shipping, and will not allow foreign powers to jeopardize navigating Middle East waterways.

About a fifth of the world's crude oil and oil products passes through the Strait of Hormuz, a choke point between Iran and Oman, according to data from analytics firm Vortexa.

 

Abizaid elected Chairman MEI Board

The Middle East Institute (MEI) announced election of John P. Abizaid as chairman of its Board of Governors. The board voted unanimously in favor of his appointment at its semi-annual meeting held on May 10, 2023.

“I am honored to assume this role and I thank you all for your support and commitment to this Institute. You can expect a lot from me and you should demand a lot from me as we work with the entire MEI community to pursue our mission,” said Abizaid.

“The Middle East is a complex and often misunderstood region. MEI provides a global platform for knowledge and an opportunity for engagement and understanding that is essential to long-term stability. I will work with the board, scholars, and staff to sustain MEI and uphold our mission at a critical juncture in US-Middle East relations.”

At the meeting the board also expressed its deep appreciation to outgoing chairman, Richard A. Clarke, who served in the role for more than 10 years. During his tenure, Clarke oversaw a period of historic growth for the Institute, including the renovation and expansion of its Washington, D.C. headquarters, and the flourishing of its policy, arts, and educational programs. 

“We would not be where we are today without Dick’s exceptional leadership and bold vision. His chairmanship was essential to securing MEI’s position as a preeminent voice on Middle East policy and analysis,” said MEI President and CEO Paul Salem.

“We are thrilled to have a leader of Gen. Abizaid’s stature and experience take up this mantle. His passion for the Institute’s mission of promoting peace, prosperity, and partnership between the people of the United States and the region will be invaluable as we set our course for the years ahead.”

Gen. Abizaid is a retired U.S. Army four-star general, who most recently served as the US Ambassador to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia from 2019 to 2021. In his 34 years of active military service, he commanded units at every level, serving in Grenada, Lebanon, Kurdistan, Bosnia, Kosovo, Afghanistan, and Iraq, and served as the head of US Central Command from 2003 to 2007.

He has also served as the Distinguished Chair (Emeritus) of the Combating Terrorism Center at the US Military Academy at West Point and was the first Annenberg Distinguished Visiting Fellow at Stanford University's Hoover Institution.

Abizaid is a Lebanese American, born in northern California in 1951. He is a graduate of the US Military Academy at West Point, holds a master's degree in Middle Eastern Studies from Harvard University, has also studied at the University of Jordan in Amman, and has received Honorary Degrees from Dartmouth College and Norwich University. 

 

New expressions being used to describe Pakistan-IMF relations

Some scary words were heard about Pakistan politics and economy on Thursday about. Historically, politics has always remained volatile in Pakistan. However, the current status of economy needs utmost as well as immediate and focused attention of all the stakeholders.

A statement came out from IMF yesterday morning saying that the Fund remains engaged with Pakistan on the program, despite the recent happenings in politics which give some confidence to market participants.

However, the same statement says that the country will ‘durably allow, market-based exchange rate and will scrap the fuel subsidy program. PKR depreciated and was very close to crossing the PKR300 mark.  

Another IMF statement on Pakistan yesterday said that the country requires ‘significant’ more financing in order for IMF SLA to go through.

The explicit meaning of ‘durably allow’ and ‘significant’ is very unclear right now as it is difficult to understand what exactly more is required from the IMF side.

Finance Minister also spoke in an event yesterday saying we will not accept IMF demands any more as a lot has already been done and Pakistan will not default, without the IMF.

It appears he meant to say Pakistan will not default without IMF under his remaining tenure which is of less than 3 months now before the term of current government ends.