Arab recognition of Israel to redefine the Middle East

Many countries have established diplomatic relations with Israel in quick succession. The decision to establish diplomatic relations by itself cannot create alliance. In case of the Arab world, the matter is different. Within each country, there are factions that are hostile to Israel. Any regime that opens relations with Israel will have to face this reality. Each state that has recognized Israel has broken a barrier. Among many Arabs, it is a violation of a fundamental principle.

Morocco established diplomatic relations with Israel, soon after three other Arab countries – the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Sudan – normalized ties. In Morocco’s case, part of the deal was US recognition of Morocco’s claim to Western Sahara, just as it had agreed to remove Sudan from its list of state sponsors of terrorism.

This process, which began with the UAE, is rooted partly in the US Middle Eastern policy that has played an important role in implicitly endorsing the process and occasionally adding a sweetener. The US also made it clear that it was withdrawing its forces from the region and reducing its commitments. That left the region without the power that held it together.

Public hostility among nations in the region, and especially with Israel, is possible as the US has served as coordinator and bridge. These countries could and did work together, but only through secret contacts and US coordination. Without the United States, each state was left to either go it alone or form meaningful relations on the whole. The US policy forced the countries of the region to face a reality they had tried to hide

This sounds like the usual US mantra, “They needed each other because the Sunni Arab world had enemies, none more dangerous to their interests than Iran. The Arabs framed their policy on the assumption that the United States would guarantee their interests, and even their existence, against an Iranian threat.

That remains possible, but what the United States has done, create uncertainty. Iran cannot be sure of what the United States would do under any particular circumstances, neither can the Arabs. Each has to prepare itself for a situation, minus United States, rather than simply an American reaction.

At the same time, the Iranians have a weakened position. One of their strategies was to play off Arab states against Israel, the United States or each other. They could also take advantage of conflicts that periodically flared up between fragmented Arab states. Now Iran has less room to maneuver, while the Arabs find themselves needing to negotiate with neighbors rather than offload risk and responsibility to the United States.

The decision to establish diplomatic relations by itself would not normally create an alliance. The US and China have diplomatic relations, but they are not allies. But in the case of the Arab world, the matter is different. Within each country, there are factions that are hostile to Israel. Any regime that opens relations with Israel must face this reality.

The threat here is internal and each state that has recognized Israel has broken a barrier. In the US and Israel, this is a welcome break. Among many Arabs, it is a violation of what has been a fundamental principle.

Saudi Arabia, wary of the intense feelings on such matters in a significant sector of society, has not taken the step of recognizing Israel, even though it has cooperated with Israel for quite a while. Given the politics of the region, recognition may as well be an alliance. There is little to lose and much to gain for Arab states that have recognized Israel.

The implicit alliance leaves Iran in an extremely difficult position. The Arab world was hostile in many ways before. Now it is organized around Israeli power, making Israel even more dangerous to it. In addition to ruinous sanctions, internal political tension and the potential threat of the United States, it now faces the possibility not only of Arab hostility but of Arab alignment with Israel. In many ways, this is the worst-case scenario for Iran, and the intelligence services arrayed against it will do all they can to encourage the internal opposition.

Iran’s counter is a serious one. The recognition process leaves the Palestinians isolated from their former allies. Iran can portray itself reasonably as the only champion of the Palestinians and the only true enemy of Israel.

The Arab states have regarded Palestine as a side issue for a long time, but the same is not always true for their citizens. Iran’s move is to adopt the Palestinian cause as its own, and speak to the Arab public in terms of the betrayal of the Palestinians and capitulation to Israel.

It is not clear that any Arab regime will be forced to change policy or be overthrown. It is not clear that Iran’s formal isolation will cause regime change, but what is clear is that if Iran undertakes military action of any sort against states that have recognized Israel, Israel will be free and even welcomed, to undertake disproportionate retaliation. Any Iranian allies in the region, such as those in Syria or Iraq, would face the same.

What this move has done is to vastly widen the circumstances under which Israel can attack Iran without facing condemnation in the Arab world. The balance of power has shifted dramatically in the region since the 1970s, when it was Israel facing unified hostility.

Now it is Iran that faces hostility. How unified it will be remains to be seen. Unity is rare in the Arab world, but the risks to Arab regimes of both participating in and destabilizing the emerging structure would be too big a stake. Many things could go wrong, but it is a profound redefinition of the Middle East.

Trade will be the toughest test for Biden’s foreign policy

Joe Biden campaigned to restore America’s standing in the world by repairing ties with the US allies, create greater domestic equity through improvements in the Affordable Care Act and aggressive efforts to advance the interests of women and minorities, and accelerate US efforts to reduce greenhouse gases.

Biden can’t accomplish these massive programs without big deficits or taxes, which a Republican Senate is not likely to permit. He could pay his campaign debts with surgical improvements to the ACA funded by dedicated levies, and coax Republican cooperation by offering torts reform and bending to wherever ideas the GOP may have about improving competition. He also needs more aggressive enforcement from Justice Department Civil Rights Division and Departments of Labor and Education.

Internationally, Biden must reckon with a China that will soon have a larger economy, has an impressive navy, is flexing its muscles in the South China Sea and Straights of Taiwan, and suppressing democracy in Hong Kong. At best we are in a stalemate and at worst, we could be pulled into a ruinous confrontation that establishes China as the pre-eminent power in the Pacific.

France and Germany combined are as populous as and about four times richer than Russia. Clearly the Europeans can afford to entirely provide for their own defense. The Europeans will be told, albeit more politely, to do much more for themselves, because America’s resources are needed in the Pacific.

China’s economy is at once complex—a state-orchestrated market system, similar to  that of Germany and Japan in the 1930s—and simple—a free rider in the international trading system created principally by the World Trade Organization (WTO).

The WTO permitted China to accomplish export-led growth and create an economic and military juggernaut that is now bent on reshaping the entire global system to serve the values and vision of the Chinese Communist Party.

The WTO system was designed to link together democratic market economies and assist developing countries by establishing rules that promote trade based on comparative advantage. The agreements very much look as if they were written by economists to create work for lawyers.

Beyond reducing tariffs and quotas—quite effectively but for agriculture and textiles—the WTO agreements lay out general rules for product standards, customs administration, subsidies, intellectual property regimes and other instruments of domestic policy that clever bureaucrats can manipulate for mercantilist purposes. It leaves to dispute settlement panels and an Appellate Body to elaborate their situational meaning.

The rules are general, because technology and the ways governments can subvert open trade are constantly evolving. A de facto common law system has emerged, which when it works well, provides predictable limits on the protectionist pressures special interests can bring to bear on domestic politicians.

China’s economic system is too inconsistent with Western market economies for the WTO to accommodate. It has run circles around WTO dispute settlement and does most whatever it likes. It targets Western industries by closing its markets, forces foreign investors to transfer technology to gain market access, and subsidizes exports. It has accomplished dominant positions, for example, in solar panels and 5G technology.

The Obama and Trump administrations responded by refusing to approve judges to the Appellate Body and that crippled dispute settlement. The Europeans, Chinese and others countered  the US policy by creating a contingent arbitration mechanism outside the WTO to review dispute settlement panel findings.

China should not be in the WTO, but the Europeans want to deal with Beijing there. China has grown too large for the United States to confront without allies, and the Europeans want tangible gestures that show Trump era abuse of America First is over. President Donald Trump’s steel and aluminum tariffs are on the table but the Europeans have quite a laundry list of issues.

Ambassador Robert Lighthizer proposed replacing the Appellate Body with bilateral arbitration that would not set precedents—but without precedents, the WTO system is rudderless and subject to the whims of the biggest player—soon to be China.

The Biden administration could approve the appointment of new appellate judges but condition that on an American exception for dispute settlement with China.

That would permit the United States to impose remedies it deemed necessary to counter China’s aggressive protectionism and force the Europeans and other advanced industrialized countries to consider the same. China needs trade to prosper. Excluding China from WTO dispute settlement would force it to take multilateral negotiations more seriously or face increasing isolation.

Israeli Iron Dome intercepts cruise missiles for first time

The Israel Missile Defense Organization (IMDO) has successfully completed a series of live-fire intercept tests of the Iron Dome and David’s Sling weapon systems against threat-representative cruise and ballistic missiles. It is the first time the Iron Dome system intercepted a cruise missile. The tests demonstrated an interoperable capability of the different interception system.

The IMDO is a division of the Defense Ministry. The tests were conducted in cooperation with the US Missile Defense Agency (MDA).

Rafael Advanced Systems led the tests via a testing site in Central Israel, with the participation of the IAF and the Navy.

The successful series is a critical milestone in the augmentation of Israel’s operational capabilities in defending itself against current and future threats, the Defense Ministry said in a press release.

The series tested the capabilities of a new and advanced version of David’s Sling and included a number of scenarios simulating future threats. The results of these tests will enable IMDO and industry engineers to evaluate and upgrade the system’s capabilities.

The IMDO and Rafael also successfully demonstrated the capabilities of the Iron Dome in intercepting a variety of threats, including UAVs and cruise missiles, the Defense Ministry said. Moreover, it demonstrated the interoperability of the multilayered air-defense mechanism (Arrow missile, David’s Sling and Iron Dome), helping ensure that these systems will be able to intercept different threats simultaneously during a conflict.

“For the first time, [the test] assessed the combined interception capabilities of the multilayered air-defense system of the State of Israel,” Defense Minister Benny Gantz said. “This is one of the most advanced air-defense mechanisms in the world, and it protects the state from threats near and far.”

“The systems in this multilayered mechanism provide Israel with a top-tier strategic capability, enabling us to operate effectively in every scenario,” he said.

Brig-General (Retired) Pini Yungman, Executive Vice President and head of Rafael’s Air and Missile Defense Division said, “The capability that was demonstrated in this series of tests ensures the security of the State of Israel and its ability to contend with current and future threats. When the different systems in the multilayered mechanism are combined, they may face a variety of simultaneous threats and defend the citizens of the State of Israel.”

Representatives of the MDA and Israeli defense industries, as well as IAF soldiers, participated in the tests.

Rafael is the prime contractor for the development of David’s Sling, in cooperation with the American company Raytheon. IAI’s Elta Systems developed the MMR radar, and Elbit Systems developed the Golden Almond BMC.

“I would also like to thank our partners in the US Department of Defense, US Missile Defense Agency, US government and US Congress, which supports the State of Israel in the development of these systems and aids us in ensuring Israel’s security and operational superiority,” Gantz said.

What could be likely fate of Abraham Accords in Biden era?

Biden is in favor of the Abraham Accords, but they have strings attached that make his administration uncomfortable. There are expectations that the strings attached to the Abraham Accords will not be cut by the Biden administration. The US has a clear system of continuity, especially when it comes to diplomatic positions. The world has seen this with Israel over the decades. Biden may have drastically different view on foreign policy than Trump, but he is likely to make certain compromises.

Over the last few days, two countries ‑ Morocco and Bhutan – have established relations with Israel. It seems more normalizations will come in the coming weeks before US President-elect Joe Biden’s inauguration on January 20.

US Vice President Mike Pence is going to Israel and may announce that some other countries have forged diplomatic ties with Israel. It’s yet unclear which these countries are, but Saudi Arabia is not likely to be one of them. The Kingdom is expected to wait and see how things go with Biden administration before making any move.

Broadly, Biden favors the Abraham Accords, which have led to ties between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco. He and his foreign policy advisers have said positive things about them. Still they likely to seek normalizations come in conjunction with progress in the peace process with Palestinians.

Biden administration may not pursue diplomatic ties for Israel and Arab countries with the same zeal as US President Donald Trump, but it would be unlikely to create any obstacles. Let no one forget these normalizations have strings attached that could be uncomfortable for the Biden administration.

Many senior Emirati figures, along with high-level Israeli and American officials, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, have said that the sale of F-35 fighter jets to the UAE was not part of the negotiations leading to the Abraham Accords.

That sale just squeaked by a Senate bill aiming to block it, but whether it will be completed before Trump leaves office is unclear. Biden could oppose the sale because many Democrats in the Senate are concerned about UAE’s involvement in the wars in Yemen and Libya.

Sudan is keen in getting off the US list of state sponsors of terrorism, seeks debt forgiveness and aid after Omar al-Bashir was overthrown last year. The US insisted that diplomatic relations with Israel be part of the deal and Sudan pushed for “legal peace,” by which Khartoum will pay over US$300 million to victims of terror, and no further lawsuits can be brought against the country for its past support for terrorism.

This, too, faced obstacles in Congress, though supporting Sudan’s nascent democracy has bipartisan support. Senators Robert Menendez and Chuck Schumer seeking to carve out an exception for victims of the 9/11 attacks, among others, to sue Sudan, which harbored Osama bin Laden and hosted Al Qaeda training camps in the 1990s.

Sudanese officials have told US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo that they will not move forward with ties with Israel if the bill granting Khartoum immunity from future lawsuits does not pass by the end of 2020.

In the meantime, an Israeli economic delegation has already been to Sudan, and Israel has been lobbying Congress to pass the legal immunity bill, without taking a position on 9/11 victims. Sudan may not stop the normalization process, because Israel can help the East African country in Washington.

Democrats do not generally oppose the “legal peace” for Sudan, even though details must still be worked out, and Biden has not said anything to indicate he would block it. Yet the matter is unlikely to be at the top of his agenda if it is not done by 20th January 2021, and those delays could be a strain on the new Sudan-Israel ties.

Morocco is perhaps the most controversial move of all three. The US became the first country to recognize Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara. The Trump administration’s message was that decades of attempts at negotiations between Morocco and the leadership of the Sahrawi, the non-Moroccan people living in the region, have gone nowhere and autonomy under Morocco’s king is the way to move forward.

This has serious implications when it comes to international law that can radiate outward to Judea and Samaria, Crimea and beyond – as different as those land disputes may be – and the Trump administration has boxed Biden into a change of policy.

Iran, India and Uzbekistan meeting on Chabahar Port

Iran, India, and Uzbekistan are scheduled to hold their first online meeting on cooperation in Iran's Chabahar Port on Monday, 14th December 2020, the Indian Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced.

The trilateral working group meeting will be jointly chaired by Deputy Ministers of Iran and Uzbekistan and a secretary from India, Hindustan Times reported.

The announcement came a day after Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev proposed during a summit with Prime Minister Narendra Modi that a trilateral meeting should be held with Iran to promote Chabahar port.

According to the website of the Indian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Indian Government welcomes Uzbekistan's interest in using Chabahar port, in Southeastern Iran, as a transit port, which provides economic opportunities for traders in the region.

In addition to Uzbekistan, other Central Asian countries have shown interest in using the port.

“This would open up economic opportunities for the traders and business community of the region. Besides Uzbekistan, other Central Asian countries have also shown interest in using the port. India seeks to cooperate closely with regional countries on this issue,” the statement by the Indian ministry said.

India currently operates one of the terminals of Chabahar port and offers loading and unloading services in the mentioned terminal.

“The strategic project has been given a waiver from sanctions imposed by the United States on Iran in view of its importance in shipping cargo and humanitarian assistance to Afghanistan," the report highlighted.

Following an India-Uzbekistan Summit on Friday, Adarsh Swaika, Joint Secretary (Eurasia), Indian External Affairs Ministry, said the two sides had discussed the ways to overcome the lack of overland connectivity.

Mirziyoyev gave his in-principle concurrence to joining the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) when Modi reiterated a proposal on Uzbekistan’s participation in the project.

“We would welcome any initiative that increases connectivity between Afghanistan and Uzbekistan or with other Central Asian countries,” Swaika said.

Chabahar Port, the only Iranian ocean port, is a strategic port with unique opportunities that can attract investments from Iranian and foreign private sectors.

The development of the Chabahar Port is important for the economic development of regional countries and in this regard endorsing regional agreements with neighboring countries are of significant importance for Iran so that it can increase its transit share to connect the shores of the Indian Ocean to Russia, northern Central Asia, and the Caucasus.

Oman Indonesia likely next in line to normalize relations with Israel

According to some diplomatic sources, the two countries that are in line to establish diplomatic relations with Israel in the coming weeks are Oman and Indonesia.

The Trump administration is continuing its efforts to bring more Arab and Muslim countries into the Abraham Accords, in which the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco have already agreed to normalize relations with Israel.

Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu said on Saturday night, after Bhutan agreed to forged ties with Israel outside of the framework of the accords, that Israel is “in touch with additional countries that want to join and establish relations with us.”

Regional Cooperation Minister Ofir Akunis confirmed to Army Radio on Sunday morning that Vice President Mike Pence would visit Israel in January 2021. According to Akunis, during his visit, Pence may announce that another country will establish relations with Israel.

The source identified Oman and Indonesia as two countries with which talks have advanced and with whom normalization could be announced before US President Donald Trump leaves office on 20th January 2021.

On Friday, Oman welcomed the announcement of ties between Israel and Morocco, expressing hope that they will further endeavor to achieve a comprehensive, just and lasting peace in the Middle East.

Netanyahu visited Oman in 2018 and met with its then-leader, the late Sultan Qaboos. Israel had enjoyed unofficial trade relations with Oman during 1994-2000, and the countries cooperate in opposing Iranian aggression.

Israel and Indonesia do not have formal diplomatic relations but there is trade and tourism between them and Indonesia bought arms from Israel in the 1970s and 1980s and Indonesian soldiers were trained in Israel.

Then-prime minister Yitzhak Rabin met Indonesian president Suharto in Jakarta in 1993.

Contrary to Hebrew media reports, the diplomatic source said normalization with Saudi Arabia was unlikely before US President-elect Joe Biden enters office, although the Saudis have given tacit approval to other parts of the Abraham Accords

Israel normalizes ties with Bhutan

Israel established full diplomatic relations with Bhutan for the first time on Saturday. Israeli Ambassador to India, Ron Malka and his Bhutanese counterpart Vetsop Namgyel signed the final agreement normalizing ties.

The countries’ foreign ministries held secret talks over the past year for forging official ties, which included visit of delegations to the two capitals, Jerusalem and Thimphu.

The effort to establish relations between the two countries was not connected to the Abraham Accords, which led to four Arab countries – United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco normalizing ties with Israel over the last four months, through the US mediation. Interestingly, Bhutan does not even have official diplomatic relations with the US.

Bhutan a Buddhist kingdom in the Himalayas enjoys border with India and the Tibet, Autonomous Region of China. It has gone to great lengths to keep itself isolated from the rest of the world in order to avoid outside influences and to preserve its culture and natural resources. The country limits tourism, especially from outside South Asia.

The landlocked country has formal diplomatic relations with only 53 other countries – a list that does not include the US, UK, France and Russia, has embassies in only seven of them. Neither does the country have ties with China, having closed its border to the country on its north after China’s 1959 invasion of Tibet.

Malka said in an exclusive interview with The Jerusalem Post that the ceremony marking official diplomatic relations between Israel and Bhutan was “exciting... modest, but very special.” The ambassador said that in recent years, Bhutanese governments have reached out to Israel.

“They have been impressed by Israel’s abilities for many years, and their prime minister wanted relations,” he said. “We advise them on topics that are important to them like water management, agriculture and technology... education and professional training as well. They’re very interested in the topic of medicine.”

Bhutan’s government “thinks of Israel as a leading country in technology and innovation that can help them progress and use more advanced technology and train their youth.”

Another area in which Thimphu has sought Jerusalem’s advice is in building a national service program for its youth.

As for tourism, the country that limits the number of outsiders who can enter will now likely be more open to Israelis, Malka said, though no precise numbers have been discussed.

“They let very few people visit, even though it is very attractive, because they want to preserve its history and its nature and environment,” Malka said. “It was very hard before, but now Israelis will be more accepted – and they will want to develop [Israeli] tourism.”

Malka has visited Bhutan twice and said that it is “a very special place that is different from anywhere else. They really preserved their culture and their natural resources. There is not even one traffic light; it is very natural.”

It is still unclear if Israel will open an embassy in Thimphu; Malka may become the non-resident ambassador to Bhutan, just as he is to Sri Lanka in addition to residing in Delhi, from which Thimphu is a two-hour flight.

Israeli Foreign Minister Gabi Ashkenazi and Foreign Minister of Bhutan Tandy Dorji spoke on the phone last weekend.

“I want to thank the Kingdom of Bhutan and praise the decision to establish full diplomatic relations with Israel,” Ashkenazi said. “I invite my friend Foreign Minister Dorji to visit Israel to promote cooperation between the countries. I hope that in the next year we will host the King of Bhutan for his first official visit to Israel.”

Ashkenazi also thanked Malka and the embassy staff for working to strengthen Israel’s ties to Bhutan and for bringing them to fruition.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu praised the new relations and called it “another fruit of the peace agreements,” adding that Israel is in touch with more countries that want to establish ties with the Jewish state.

Hundreds of Bhutanese citizens have participated in agricultural training programs through MASHAV, Israel’s development agency.

Israel briefly had a non-resident ambassador to Bhutan in 2010. Mark Sofer, was ambassador to India and non-resident ambassador to Sri Lanka at the time.

In 2017, Gilad Cohen, the head of Israel’s Asia-Pacific division, became the most senior Israeli official to visit Bhutan. During his trip, he met the country’s prime minister.

Bhutan, which is about twice as large as Israel but only has 800,000 residents, is thought to be one of the most beautiful countries in the world, allowing television and the Internet only in 1999.

It uniquely measures its quality of life by “Gross National Happiness” instead of gross domestic product (GDP) – in fact, the World Happiness Report was a joint initiative of the Bhutanese prime Minister and the UN secretary General in 2011.

That metric emphasizes sustainable development, environmental conservation, preservation of culture and good governance, as well as mental and physical health, among other values.

The Bhutanese are thought to be among the happiest people in the world, and the happiest in Asia, but they are also among the world’s poorest.