US oil producers gulping Saudi share

I am a novice and have hardly any competency to trade on the dynamics of oil trade, It is a business controlled by seven sisters and price is determined by super powers by crating geopolitical crisis.

As regards to containing oil glut I posted two blogs: 1) US shale producers to gulp Saudi market share of oil and 2) Curtailing oil production ‘an agreement of thugs to rip off consumers’. Both of my points have got credence by persistent increase in oil prices and number of active rigs in the US and further impetus has been provided by the intentions of US President for imposing fresh sanctions on Iran.

According to a Reuters report US companies added oil rigs for a 13th week in the last 14, extending a nine-month recovery. They are taking advantage of crude prices that have held mostly above US$50 a barrel since OPEC agreed to cut supplies in November 2016.

Drillers added 17 oil rigs in the week ended on 3^rd February taking the total count up to 583, the most since October 2015, energy services firm Baker Hughes Inc said on Friday. During the same week a year ago, there were 467 active oil rigs.

Since crude prices first topped $50 a barrel in May, after recovering from 13-year lows last February 2016, drillers have added a total of 267 oil rigs in 32 of the past 36 weeks, the biggest recovery in rigs since a global oil glut crushed the market in mid 2014.

Analysts expect the US energy firms to boost spending on drilling and pump more oil and natural gas from shale fields in coming years now that energy prices are projected to keep climbing.

According to Reuters report quoting analysts at Simmons & Co, energy specialists at US investment bank Piper Jaffray, this week forecast the total oil and gas rig count would average 795 in 2017, 911 in 2018 and 1,022 in 2019. Most wells produce both oil and gas.

Analysts at U.S. financial services firm Cowen & Co said in a note this week that its capital expenditure tracking showed 31 exploration and production (E&P) companies planned to increase spending by an average of 36 percent in 2017 over 2016. That spending increase in 2017 followed an estimated 45 percent decline in 2016 and a 37 percent decline in 2015, Cowen said according to the 65 E&P companies it tracks.

In such a scenario US-Saudi alliance wants export of Iran to come down, by making it a target once again accusing it of any violation, real or part of any diabolic thinking, miles away from the ground realities. If anyone disagrees with me should refer back to three decades of impositions of economic sanctions on Iran and attack on Iraq for having weapon of mass destruction.

Pakistan Stock Exchange witnesses 30 percent decline in daily traded volume

The benchmark index of Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) once again failed in crossing 50,000 barrier but managed to close at 49,556, ending its last 10-week bullish run. This slow down could be attributed to rumors of action by SECP against brokers that were warned recently over compliance issues primarily related to financing. Activity at the bourse tapered almost 30%WoW with average daily traded volume declining to slightly less than 370 million shares. The volume leaders were: KEL, TRG, DSL, LOTCHEM and ASL. Key news flows during the week included: 1) GoP initiated the process for sale of its 18.39% shareholding in MARI at 7.5% discount to the closing market price of MPCL shares of 27^th January this year of Rs1,402.9/share, 2) Sindh Bank Limited and Summit Bank begun due diligence process for merger, 3) Cabinet Committee on Privatization (CCoP) deferred the divestment of GoP's 5% stake in OGDC on the stock exchange until its share price touches Rs200/share, 4) SBP sold Rs589.7 billion worth of papers at the MTB auction held on 1^st February, where cut off yields on 3, 6 and 12 months increased and 5) GoP raised prices of petroleum products. Performance leaders for the week were: LOTCHEM, PSO, EPCL, ENGRO and MTL; while laggards included: APL, FFBL, INDU, MCB and FATIMA. Foreign participation continued its negative trend with US$15.31 million outflows compared to US$13.67 million a week ago. Going forward, the market is likely to take its direction from the ongoing results season where strong earnings growth by Banks, Cements and Autos is likely to provide impetus to market performance. Major results announcement next week includes MCB, ABL, PRL, PTC, CHCC, LOTCHEM and EPCL.  

Engro Fertilizer (EFERT) is scheduled to announce its CY16 financial results on Wednesday 8^th February. Analysts expect the Company to profit after tax of Rs10.79 billion (EPS: Rs8.11) for CY16 as compared to net profit of Rs15.03 billion (EPS: Rs11.29) for CY15, a fall of 28%YoY. The decline in earnings is expected on the back of: 1) gross margin (GM) sliding to 33.2% (including subsidy) on account of reduction in urea prices (down 9%YoY) due to depressed farm economics and low international price down 28%YoY to an average US$213/ton during the year under review, 2) 73%YoY decline in other income on account of reduction on term deposits and 3) 28%YoY decrease in finance cost on account of swift  deleveraging and low interest rate environment. However sequentially, analysts expect an increase of 79%QoQ in profit to Rs5.13 billion (EPS: Rs3.86) for 4QCY16 on the back of 61%QoQ growth in topline to Rs30 billion due to the increase in urea/imported DAP offatke to 630,000/292,000 tons due to Rabi season. Along with the result analysts expect a cash dividend of Rs2.50/share that could take full year payout to Rs6.9/share.

Pakistan’s largest oil marketing company, Pakistan State Oil (PSO) is scheduled to announce its 1HFY17 result on 6^th February where analysts expect it to post earnings of Rs9.67 billion (EPS: Rs35.61) marking an increase of 44%YoY led by 1) inventory gains of Rs1.2 billion (Rs4.42/share) as against inventory losses of Rs0.91 billion (Rs3.39/share) for 1HFY16, and 2) a 20%YoY growth in overall volumes.

A rather smaller company, HASCOL is also scheduled to announce CY16 earnings of Rs1.31 billion (EPS: Rs10.84) up 15%YoY, where the normalization of taxes is likely to erode profitability significantly. Staggered rise in global oil prices and increase in HSD/Mogas retail prices, with a 13% fall in additional levies translate into higher prescribed price pass through (increasing 6.5%). On quarterly basis, 4QCY16 earnings are expected to grow by 6%YoY to Rs404 million led by 46%YoY growth in total volumes. Full year earnings are likely to be accompanied by a final dividend of Rs3.00/share that could take full year payout to Rs6.5/share.

Pakistan Stock Exchange closes January 2017 almost flat

While the benchmark index of Pakistan Stock Exchange mostly remained on upward trajectory during January 2017, various factors also plunged it down. However, the month posted a nominal increase of slightly less than 2 percent. Though, the index breached 50,000 barrier it failed in sustaining this level and the month closed at 48,758 points.

The factors keeping the market under pressure included: 1) political volatility due to Panama case, 2) deteriorating economic indicators, 3) apex regulator enforcing rules more stringently and 4) foreign investors offloading their holdings. While foreigners remained net seller, local investors bought at dips.

Barring Automobiles and Chemical, all other major sectors posted flat returns. On top of that Oil & Gas and Commercial Banks ended in the red. The performance of market was mainly led by second tier scrips. As stated earlier, local participation remained robust, with average daily trading rising to 443 million shares, a hike of 26 percent.

Foreigners continued to trim their holding as part of the global strategy, with a net outflow of almost US$111 million during the month under review, taking net outflow to a whopping US$409 million. Positions were offloaded in Power Generation, Banks and Chemicals.

Going forward, the market is likely to take direction from the ongoing results season where strong earnings growth by Banks, Cements and Autos is likely to provide impetus to the market performance.

Attock Petroleum profit up by 92 percent

One of Pakistan’s leading oil marketing companies, Attock Petroleum Limited (APL) has reported better than expected financial results, mainly because of reversal of WWF expenses amounting to Rs621 million in 2QFY17. APL has posted profit after tax of Rs3.16 billion (EPS: Rs38.06) for the six-month period ended 31st December 2016 (1HFY16), up by 92%YoY, where ex-reversal earnings were Rs2.72 billion (EPS: Rs32.83) up by 66%YoY due to: 1) increase in gross margins to 6.4% as compared to 3.9% for 1HFY16 but lower sequentially as input costs rose, 2) profit from other associates recording a strong uptick (Rs68 million as compared to Rs14 million for the corresponding period last year and 3) finance costs rising 58%YoY as the company embarks on ambitious CAPEX plans.

Pakistan Oilfield earnings up by 3 percent

Pakistan Oilfield Limited (POL) has announced its second quarter, ended 31st December 2016 (2QFY17) financial results It has posted profit after tax of Rs2.34 billion (EPS: Rs9.88), up 3%YoY/1%QoQ. The earnings came slightly higher than expectation primarily due to better topline resulting from improved hydrocarbon flows. This took 1HFY17 earnings to Rs4.66 billion (EPS: Rs19.68), up 27%YoY. POL also announced an interim dividend of Rs15/share. Result highlights include: 1) topline up by 9%YoY to Rs7.08 billion in 2QFY17 owing to 19%YoY increase in average oil price to US$48/bbl and relatively improved hydrocarbon flows, 2) gross profit grew by 18%YoY to Rs3.48 billion during the quarter owing to growth in topline together with 10%YoY decline in operating costs, 3) exploration costs jumped to Rs126 million due to higher exploration activity during the period, and 4) pre-tax earnings grew by 16%YoY to Rs3.15 billion. However, 76%YoY higher tax expense at Rs806 million due to higher effective tax rate of 26% as compared to 17% in 2QFY16 kept earnings growth in check at 3%YoY.

                               

Pakistan Stock Exchange fails to sustain 50,000 levels

During the week ended 27^th January 2017, benchmark index of Pakistan Stock Exchange managed to cross 50,000 levels. It failed to sustain the level due to due to profit taking and closed the week at 49,964 points, up 1.21%WoW. Earnings and corporate announcements remained at the center of investor interest with major highlights including: 1) CHCC announcing capacity expansion of 2.1 million tons per annum, 2) PSMC’s plan to enter in to a JV to manufacture automobile glass and 3) ISL disclosing plans to enhance capacity. Volumes improved considerably during the week with daily average rising to 523.4 million shares, up 34.7%WoW with foreign outflows also tapering to US$13.7 million as compared to US$46.6 million a week ago. Top gainers were: EPCL, KEL, HUBC and BAFL, while laggards were: ASTL, SSGC, NCL and MTL.

Major news flows for the week were: 1) SECP constituted a committee to review matters of in‐house financing, 2) the ECC extended cash subsidy on domestic fertilizer sales and approved 0.3 million tons of urea till 28^th April, 3) CCP imposed fines of Rs62.3 million on EFOODS, Rs2 million on FFL and Rs0.5 million on Shakarganj Foods for deceptive marketing of dairy products as milk with EFOODS denying these allegations later, 4) FBR exempted sales tax on machinery imports by textile units and customs duty on import of 13 items for textiles till 30^th June 2018, 5) SBP raised Rs39.39 billion through PIB auction and 6) GoP signed implementation and power‐purchase agreements with two Chinese companies and HUBCO for setting up 1320MW coal plant at Hub and 330MW coal plant in Thar. With no excitement expected in the monetary policy review over the weekend, the market is likely to retain its focus on results announcements with major names in Sugar, Fertilizer, Foods and Autos reporting earnings. January CPI data due next week can prove a key in setting expectations for future interest rate trajectory. On the global front, the US FOMC is also scheduled to announce its interest rate policy, with broader anticipations of no change in the Fed rate.

Fauji Fertilizer Bin Qasim (FFBL) is scheduled to announce its full year financial results for CY16 on Monday 30^th January. The companies is forecast to post profit after tax of Rs678 million (EPS: Rs0.73) in CY16F as compared to net profit of Rs4.06 billion (EPS: Rs4.35) in CY15, down 83%YoY). This decline in earnings is expected on the back of: 1) gross margin (GM) coming off by 15.7% (including subsidy) on account of significant reduction in DAP prices (down 14%YoY) due to depressed international price trends, 2) a 39%YoY lower other income (excluding subsidy) on account of lower dividend payout from associated companies and reduction in term deposit placements, and 3) 19%YoY higher finance cost owing to increased borrowing to manage working capital requirements. Sequentially, analysts expect earnings to post a turnaround recording profit of Rs1.73 billion (EPS: R1.15) in 4QCY16 against net loss of Rs159 million (LPS: Rs0.17) in 3QCY16 on the back of 1.3xQoQ growth in topline to PkR23.7bn on account of increase in DAP offtake to 483,000 tons, courtesy the Rabi season. Along with the result we also expect a cash dividend of Rs0.60/ share. While earnings turnaround in 4QCY16 is expected to be led by strong volumetric growth, we feel an improvement in international pricing dynamics would be necessary for sustainability of the earnings trend, going forward.

Lucky Cement (LUCK) announced its 2QFY17 result posting consolidated/unconsolidated earnings of R4.34 billion/ Rss3.80 billion (EPS: Rs13.43/Rs11.75) in 2QFY17, up 16%YoY/12%YoY. The consolidated earnings came in line with the expectation of Rs4.27 billion (EPS: Rs13.21) where unconsolidated earnings of AKD Securities higher than our expectation owing to better than expected GM during the period. This was in spite of 68%YoY/30%QoQ surge in average coal price to US$85/ton suggesting LUCK utilized cheaper coal inventory during the period. On a cumulative basis, consolidated/unconsolidated earnings grew by 13%YoY/13%YoY to in 1HFY17. Growth in earnings was led by 1) Topline grew by 12%YoY/22%QoQ led by 16%YoY/19%QoQ growth in dispatches to 2.03 million tons in 2QFY17 as compared to 1.753 million tons/1.703 million tons in 2QFY16/1QFY17, (2) Gross Profit increased by 16%YoY/18%QoQ led by improved topline and 1.61ppt YoY GM expansion to 49.05% in 2QFY17, and (3) Other income growth  by 64%YoY/10%QoQ to Rs498 million in 2QFY17 owing to relatively higher cash and STI of Rs32.1 billion (Rs99.28/share).

                                                                 

                

United States: Boon or busted after Trump

As a student of Geopolitics in South Asia and MENA, I have repeatedly held the United States responsible for the turmoil in the region. I had even gone to the extent of saying that United States is the biggest warmonger. The super power loves to initiate a conflict that goes to the extent of anarchy and civil war.

This also invites other contenders to take part in proxy wars. While the sole purpose of United States is to sell its arms, it wants to keep others countries busy in fighting wars, rather than focusing on the welfare of their people. This also gives it a chance to keep the countries dependent on the World Bank and the IMF.

After having gone through what has been happening in the United States, after Donald Trump taking oath as new President, I am obliged to say that till recently the United States has been fanning hatred in the world, but now it is facing the same. Demonstration on the inaugural day and subsequent events clearly shows ‘Emergence of anarchy in the United States’. There are growing fears within the United States these demonstrations may turn violent.

Over the years the United States has been breading militants and using them in various countries to promote its agenda of keeping the countries in constant state of war. The worst examples are Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan. The blood thirsty mercenaries from around the world have landed in these countries. It may also be said that these militants have been moved from one country to another only to promote sale of arms.

One often wonders how the rebel groups get money. Even a cursory look at Afghanistan and MENA shows that poppy and petrodollars are used for purchasing arms. Various oil fields have been taken over by rebels, who are selling oil to the developed nations. The center of drug has shifted from golden triangle to Afghanistan.

Spy agencies of the United States have been alleging Russia for rigging election. This on one hand proves the failure of these agencies and on the other hand breakout of anarchy in the country that has been creating turmoil around the world.

Over the years, United States has been ringing alarm of nuclear assets going into the control of militants in various countries. One may ask the same question, will nuclear assets of United States be in safe hands, if the present demonstrations turn violent?