Pakistan a victim of Geopolitics

Since independence Pakistan has remained the focus of global and regional powers. The country is termed a natural corridor for trade ‑ including energy products ‑ gateway to Central Asia and landlocked Afghanistan. There is a perception that often regimes are installed and toppled in Pakistan by the super powers to achieve their vested interest. This is evident from cold war era to occupation of Afghanistan and from love and hate relationship with India to creation of Taliban (phantom now having many offspring).

At present Pakistan is facing extremely volatile situation, which has become a threat for its own existence. Fighting a proxy war for United States in Afghanistan for nearly four decade has completely destroyed the economic and social fabric of the country. Pakistan is suffering from the influx of foreign militant groups getting funds and arms from different global operators.

Analysts say over the years Pakistan has been towing foreign and military policy of the United States, which has often offended USSR, China, India and Iran. Therefore, one needs to analyze Pakistan’s relationship with Afghanistan, India and Iran, enjoying common borders with the country. It may not be wrong to say that at present Pakistan doesn’t enjoy cordial relation with none of these countries.

Pakistan helped Afghans in averting USSR attack. After the pullout of USSR forces Afghanistan plunged into civil war. It was often alleged that Pushtoons were supported by Pakistan and Northern Alliance was highly annoyed. After 9/11 Pakistan was made to fight Taliban under the US dictate. As the time for withdrawal of Nato forces is getting closer Pakistan once again faces a precarious position.

When British Raj left the subcontinent in 1947 it left a thorn, Kashmir. Since independence India and Pakistan have been living in constant state of war, spending billions of dollars annually on the purchase of conventional as well as non-conventional arms and have also attained the status of atomic powers. However, both the countries suffer from extreme poverty. There seems no probability of reconciliation between the two countries because of presence of hawks on both the sides. Even the trade relations could not be normalized due to Kashmir dispute as Hindus are not ready for another division of Hindustan on the basis of religion.

Pakistan and Iran have enjoyed the best time till toppling of Shah’s rule as both the countries were under the US influence. Iran has been persistently enduring economic sanctions for more than three decades after the Islamic revolution. Pakistan is suffering from severe energy crisis but not allowed to construct Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline or even buy Iranian crude oil under food for oil program. Iran has often complaint that certain outfits, most notorious being Jundullah, having its base in Balochistan province of Pakistan, are involved in cross border terrorism.

Pakistan also faces a difficult situation when Saudi Arabia, under the US pressure asks it to do or not to do certain things. One such example is Saudi Arabia promising to meet Pakistan’s oil requirement if it opts not to buy Iranian oil. There are also allegations and counter allegations that Saudi Arabia and Iran are supporting Sunni and Shia factions in Pakistan. This point is being highlighted by referring to sectarian killings. However, Pakistanis have no doubt that killing is being done by those who are neither Sunni nor Shia. This point got credence when it was discovered that Taliban involved in attack on Peshawar airbase had tattoos on their bodies.

Till today, Pakistan offers the shortest and cost effective route to landlocked Afghanistan, leading to Central Asian countries. Gwadar deep seaport has been constructed in Balochistan province with the financial and technical assistance of China. India often raises its concerns on Chinese presence along Pakistan’s coastal belt. However, India is not only constructing Chabahar port in Iran but also road and rail links up to Central Asia via Afghanistan.

Pakistanis completely fail to understand the duality of US policy. India was asked to withdraw itself from Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline project and also rewarded nuclear technology in return. On top of that it has not been stopped from building port and supporting infrastructure in Iran. Some experts say all this is being done to construct an alternate route once the objective of creation of greater Balochistan is achieved. This new country will be created taking one slice each from Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan.

The level of US pressure on Pakistan can also be gauged from the fact that President, Asif Ali Zardari, on the eleventh hour, cancelled his visit to Tehran and went straight to UK. The new date of his visit to Iran has not been announced as yet. This reminds Pakistani’s of a similar cancelled visit of Prime Minister Liaquat Ali Khan to USSR and he instead went to United States.

It is also on record that Chinese experts working in Pakistan have often come under attack to make them leave Pakistan. Chinese experts working on Gwadar and Thar coal projects have been repeatedly attacked. At one stage it was feared that Chinese will completely withdraw their support for Thar coal mining and power plant.

China has also complaints that some extremist Muslim groups are trying to create disturbance in one of its province bordering with Pakistan. It seems these attempts are made to disrupt trade being done through this land route.

This article was published in eurasiareview on December 27, 2012 

In response following comments have been received:

Ram Iyer

I am an Indian and to be honest met many Pakistanis and very nice people/friends. Similar life, culture, thought process and history. May be some difference in some aspects, which can happen within India between Tamilian and Punjabi (different food, practices, interests) but same nation.

Pakistan needs a deep breath to bunk its 60 year old thinking and re-think. It will have short term pain but absolute long term gain. Wean away from US gradually using nation first policy using calibered adjustments. Build silent bridge with India, Iran, CIS, Russia and ramp up China relationship. Silence on India border and some consistent visit to India from broad spectrum and be blunt/frank on sincerity of change.

If India don’t want another Western invasion of life, then it need to bring that good big brother steps to give sustained multi-year multi-billion dollar aids to all nations around India to grow and grow together. Else, it will be more like nation lost in dreamland than a big growing nation along with China.

Syed Karim

Pakistan is a victim of misguided policies by its rulers. Until recently, Pakistan used terrorism as instrument of state and resorted to asymmetrical warfare against its archenemy India.

Mr. Kazmi stated that “fighting a proxy war for United States in Afghanistan for nearly four decade has completely destroyed the economic and social fabric of the country”. The reverse is true; Pakistan continues to provide logistic support to the Afghan Taliban and is engaged in a proxy war against the United States. The duplicity of Pakistan was exposed to the world when Osama bin Laden was killed in 2011 in a raid by the US Navy Seals in Abbottabad near a military garrison; Pakistan was caught sheltering and harboring the al-Qaeda leader. Pakistan played with fire and is now suffering the consequences.

Mr. Kazmi alluded to “some extremist Muslim groups” in Balochistan harassing Chinese experts in Balochistan. Actually, these are Baloch nationalists fighting for autonomy; rulers of Pakistan are dismissive of their demands and call them “miscreants” or “misguided elements”.

What is the reality of Taliban?

Lately, politicians have come under sever attack of banned outfit Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and the party hard-hit is Awami National Party (ANP). There have been regular attacks that included attempt on the life of its chief Asfand Yar Wali Khan and killing of other party members.

The latest is the assassination of Bashir Ahmed Bilour, a senior provincial minister of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) province; he has received threats in the past. Police officials confirmed that at least eight other people, including a police SHO, Bilour’s personal secretary and ANP workers were killed in the blast that took place near the famous Qissa Khwani Bazaar of Peshawar.

Bashir was bother of Ghulam Ahmed Bilour, a federal minister. One can recollect Ghulam declaring a reward of Rs10 million for the person who kills those responsible for the recently released film about Prophet Hazrat Muhammad (PBUH).

As is the practice local media has started blaring reports that the TTP has accepted responsibility of Bashir’s killing. According to a post placed on the website of a newspaper the proscribed TTP has claimed the responsibility for a suicide attack.

A post on the website of a television channels says TTP’s spokesman for Dara Adamkhel and Khyber Agency, Mohammad Afridi has informed a suicide bomber belonging to his group had attacked the minister.

It was also stated that the TTP had set up a new ‘revenge wing’ and leaders of the ANP and the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) were the prime targets of his group and the attack had been carried out to avenge the killing of an `elder’ of militants, Sheikh Naseeb Khan.

President Asif Ali Zardari and all prominent political leaders of the country have deplored the suicide attack at the ANP meeting. Prime Minister Raja Pervez Ashraf has announced to observe one-day national mourning and said flags would be flown at half-mast on Sunday.

The KP provincial government has announced a three-day while the ANP called for ten-day mourning in honor of the deceased leader. ANP’s Balochistan chapter has called for a strike in Quetta on Sunday. They also have announced to observe three-day mourning in the province.

ANP is coalition partner in the federal and provincial government with PPP and MQM. While PPP and government of Sindh have announced one day each, MQM called for three-day mourning.

No condolence or condemnation message has been issued by from PML-N leader, the ruling party of Punjab till posting of this blog. Leaders of religious parties are also mum.

Karachi was likely to witness some unrest and the day opened with an attack in which at least six persons including the policemen and recruits were injured. The blast took place this morning near Khawaja Ajmernagri police headquarter.

Lately, the TTP has been accepting responsibility of killings and blasts in Pakistan and these reports come from which claim to have received calls from the spokesman of the banned outfit, mostly residing at ‘unknown locations’.

A few points demand immediate deliberations: 1) why media is prompt in announcing the claims of any terrorist attack? 2) Is TTP a reality or phantom created by intelligence agencies both local and foreign? 3) Who is proving arms and funds to these groups? 4) Why the miscreants want to plunge the country into complete anarchy?

Bleak outlook for Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline

Failure to complete Iran-Pakistan (IP) gas pipeline in five decades can be termed the biggest tragedy for the two neighboring countries, one rich in energy and other suffering due to its paucity. The two counties enjoyed extremely cordial relationship with the United States, till the monarchy was toppled in Iran.

While Pakistan has been fighting a US proxy war in Afghanistan for the last four decades, it was neither allowed by the super power to go ahead with IP project nor was it treated at par with India when it came to offering ‘nuclear technology for civilian use’.

While peeping into the history may have many surprises for those who still believe that the pipeline will be constructed, one can safely infer that unless US-Iran relation improves it is ‘hoping against hope’.

Last minute cancellation of visit of Pakistani president to Iran to meet Malala Yousufzai in UK has put the last nail in the coffin, removing that may take decades.

This reminds Pakistanis another horrendous mistake of fifties when visit of Prime Minister Liaquat Ali Khan to USSR was cancelled and he instead went to United States, for which the country had to pay a huge cost.

In the post Islamic revolution era, relationships between Iran and United States have deteriorated because of imposition of economic sanction on the country for more than 32 years. Experts don’t expect any change and hoping that any improvement is day dreaming.

On the contrary some of the conspiracy theories suggest that one day Iran will be punished for not bowing down before the US pressure. A proxy was initiated in Syria more than 20 months ago and another test was conducted through Hamas-Israel encounter but seems the time is not ripe to undertake US-sponsored attack on Iran.

Lately, Pakistani Foreign Minister Hina Rabbani Khar said President Asif Ali Zardari would soon visit Iran and the gas pipeline project would be completed in given time frame. She also said Pakistan and Iran have been enjoying good relations and the present government has further strengthened its ties with the neighbor. However, a closer look at the timeline should remove any ambiguity, if it still prevails.

• The idea was conceived in mid 1950s, the project was conceptualized in 1989, the discussions between Iran and Pakistan started in 1994 and a preliminary agreement was signed in 1995.
• Later on Iran made a proposal to extend the pipeline from Pakistan into India and February 1999, a preliminary agreement was signed between the two countries.
• In February 2007, India and Pakistan agreed to pay Iran US$4.93 per million British thermal units.
• In April 2008, Iran expressed interest in the People's Republic of China's participation in the project. In August 2010, Iran invited Bangladesh to join the project.
•  In 2009, India withdrew from the project over pricing and security issues, and after signing a civilian nuclear deal with the US in 2008. In January 2010, the US asked Pakistan to abandon the project
• On 15 April 2012 it was reported that Saudi Arabia was willing to offer an "alternative package" to Pakistan if the country abandoned its cooperation with Iran.

Imposition of new economic sanctions on Iran clearly suggests that the country is denied the right to export crude oil only to keep Arab producers happy and create a justification for Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline sponsored by the United States.

Tattoos on the body of attackers on Peshawar Airport

Experts have been advising the Government of Pakistan (GoP) to pull itself out of the proxy war being fought in Afghanistan. If the purpose of attack on Afghanistan was to kill the phantom called Osama bin Laden, the game was over a year ago. 

Now the struggle is to keep in power a puppet government headed by President Hamid Karzai and create justification for keeping troops in Afghanistan, till the ground is prepared for undertaking an assault against Iran.

Pakistanis clearly understand the difference between good and bad Taliban and also the reality of its offshoot, Therik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). Certainly the bad Taliban are those who are still fighting against occupying US-led Nato forces. Those are also against cultivation of poppy in Afghanistan.

Good are those Taliban which are helping Nato forces and also giving protection and facilitate the drug trade. Therefore, being a Muslim is not a reason to join the clan of booty collectors, who still prefer to call themselves Taliban to fool the innocent and simple Afghans, still considering them Mujahideen, ensuring supremacy of Sharia rules.

This point became crystal clear when the dead bodies of those who undertook attack on Peshawar airbase were shown to media. Presence of tattoos on the bodies of those killed has given a new dimension to the investigators. Very large tattoos engraved on the back of two foreign fighters read “angel of death” and “Satan” which certainly has no meaning for a Muslim.

Taking a quick account of some of the incidences taking place in Pakistan clearly suggests “Perpetrators are not Muslims but operating under the disguise of Taliban. The sole objective of these perpetrators is to fragment Pakistan on the basis of language, religion and even sects, initiate civil war and plunge the country deep into civil war. 

Sit in against Shia genocide in Karachi

Numaish Chorangi at Karachi in Pakistan seems to have become Tehrir Square.  It is one of the unique displays of commitment and solidarity that a sit in against killing of Shia in Karachi now surpass 34 hours. The sit in, which began after Friday prayers, continues as the protesters refused to disperse, calling it a sit in for an indefinite period.

Strangely mainstream media is not giving enough coverage of the event but regular updates and photographs are being posted at social media. The point most emphasized is gathering of women and children in such a large number despite chilling nights.

One of the posts says, “Amazing sit in protest going on at Numaish Chorangi against Shia Genocide since the last 32 hours or so, was there for a good 3, 4 hours, wish people from all communities can join in to support a call against injustice concerning humanity and our country, even for just 10 minutes”.

On Saturday Karachi gave a deserted look. Fear and panic that began spreading in the city on Friday evening failed to deter the demonstrators. Young men riding motorcycles forced closure of shops and markets. Life in Karachi remained at a standstill as public transport remained off the roads.

The participants are present at Numaish Chorangi. It looks Incredible because hardly so many women come out to protest. According to some eyewitnesses the number of demonstrators exceeds 50,000. These people are demanding an operation against the banned outfits killing Shia.

Shias are being targeted regularly by Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan; the latest attack was at Ashura procession in D I Khan. In the prevailing conditions gathering of such a large number of people demonstrates strength of their faith.

Geopolitics fueling Pakistan's energy crisis

A closer look at post fall of Dacca era indicates that the strategic plans followed by the successive governments in Pakistan were dictated from outside. From super powers to multilateral lenders and from locals seeking power to policy planners followed strategic plans that were not in the larger interest of the country.

One of the latest evidences is that President Asif Ali Zardari skipped his visit to Tehran and went to UK to meet Malala Yousufzai. He was scheduled to stopover in Tehran to sign some important agreements pertaining to Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline. There is a consensus in Pakistan that the pipeline has not become reality only because of opposition of United States.

Examining the power sector alone supports this perception. Everyone knows that Pakistan enjoys enormous potential to produce 40,000MW electricity from hydel plants. In the earlier days country succeeded in constructing three dams/hydel plants i.e. Warsak, Mangla and Tarbella. The plan was to complete one dam in a decade. Mangla was completed in mid sixties and Tarbella in mid seventies but then no more funds were made available for contraction any mega size das after Kalabagh Dam project ran into controversy.

Over the years also came a paradigm shift in the policies of multilateral donors. They decided not to lend more funds to WAPDA and encouraged contraction of fossil oil based thermal power plants by the private sector. Pakistan faces double edged sword as more than 75% of total power generation capacity is oil based and oil prices are hovering around US$100/barrel. It the recent past oil price also touched record level of US$147/barrell.

Pakistan is blessed with natural gas but turmoil in Balochistan affects drilling of new wells in the province. Fortunately reasonably large oil/gas reserves have been discovered in Sindh but excessive reliance on gas has led to present gas crisis. Gas can’t be produced from some of the mega fields discovered lately due to ongoing litigation.

Little has been the progress on exploitation of Thar coal, capable of producing 50,000MW electricity over the next half a century. Over the years enough funds were not allocated for the construction of required infrastructure and lately Chinese working in the area were forced to stop their work.

The latest controversy about the quality of Thar coal and process of mainlining seems to be driven by groups having vested interest. While things were moving smooth for establishing mine-mouth power plant, entered a group insisting of coal gasification process. Though, the available data suggests coal gasification technology can’t be used for commercial purposes, this group is insisting on release of millions of dollars for the deployment of economically unviable technology.

Some of the groups are also suggesting exploitation of other sources of energy i.e. introduction of E-10 and granting sugar mills IPP (independent power plant) status. The entire required infrastructure is present in the country but oil lobby is opposing this, it knows very well that going for E-10 and granting sugar mills IPP status will hurt its interest.

Some experts also say that much of the hype about shortage of gas is aimed at creating a justification for the import of LNG and creation of LNG handling infrastructure. Earlier Rental Power Plants (RPPs) melodrama was created that fizzled out due to credible evidence of massive corruption.

US pressurize Zardari to skip Iran visit

According to Financial Times, the visit of Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari to Tehran to seal a US$1.5 billion gas pipeline deal was unexpectedly cancelled due to extreme pressure from the United States. The news has been received in Pakistan with extreme disgust and some of the quarters term it an attack on country’s sovereignty.

Pakistanis are fully aware that Iran has offered hundreds of millions of dollars to finance the long-delayed gas pipeline and Iranian stance has offended United States. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Iran's president visited Islamabad last month to offer the financing. It was said to be just the first installment. There were also clear indications that if Pakistan show determination and seriously go ahead with this project it could get more money.

Reportedly President Zardari skipped his visit to Iran on some flimsy excuse. While President House official sources said the Iran trip was not on the itinerary but it looked all certain that he would stop over in Tehran on way to UK, France and Turkey as he was expected to sign some agreement pertaining to Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline. Earlier on Tuesday, Presidential Spokesman Farhatuallah Babar had confirmed to IRNA that President Zardari will visit Iran on December 7 for talks on bilateral and regional issues.

Many Pakistanis wanted President Zardari to go to Iran to sign this crucially important agreement. They are losing patience due to inordinate delay in implementation of the project primarily because of stiff US opposition. The agreement was to be inked between Tehran and Islamabad during the November visit to Pakistan by Iranian President Ahmadinejad but was differed due to text of contract not being ready.

It sounded like a big joke that the President met Malala Yousafzai, a 14 year old peace activist, who is being treated at Birmingham’s Queen Elizabeth Hospital in UK rather than stopping over in Iran. Critics termed the visit an unprecedented gesture by the president because he did not have any diplomatic engagements in the UK other than meeting Malala.

Pakistan is keen in going ahead with the project. Dr. Asim Hussain, Advisor to Prime Minister on Petroleum and Natural Resources has recently visited Tehran to finalize text. He met several Iranian officials, including President Ahmadinejad. A delegation of Iranian oil industry experts also visited Islamabad early in November to discuss the agreement on the payment of a $250mln loan to Pakistan to fund the project.

In addition to the investment, Iran is also due to build the Pakistani part of the multi-billion-dollar pipeline. A special team has been set up in the Iranian oil ministry to specify the method of investment and credit line for the pipeline on Pakistani soil.