Israel normalizes ties with Bhutan

Israel established full diplomatic relations with Bhutan for the first time on Saturday. Israeli Ambassador to India, Ron Malka and his Bhutanese counterpart Vetsop Namgyel signed the final agreement normalizing ties.

The countries’ foreign ministries held secret talks over the past year for forging official ties, which included visit of delegations to the two capitals, Jerusalem and Thimphu.

The effort to establish relations between the two countries was not connected to the Abraham Accords, which led to four Arab countries – United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco normalizing ties with Israel over the last four months, through the US mediation. Interestingly, Bhutan does not even have official diplomatic relations with the US.

Bhutan a Buddhist kingdom in the Himalayas enjoys border with India and the Tibet, Autonomous Region of China. It has gone to great lengths to keep itself isolated from the rest of the world in order to avoid outside influences and to preserve its culture and natural resources. The country limits tourism, especially from outside South Asia.

The landlocked country has formal diplomatic relations with only 53 other countries – a list that does not include the US, UK, France and Russia, has embassies in only seven of them. Neither does the country have ties with China, having closed its border to the country on its north after China’s 1959 invasion of Tibet.

Malka said in an exclusive interview with The Jerusalem Post that the ceremony marking official diplomatic relations between Israel and Bhutan was “exciting... modest, but very special.” The ambassador said that in recent years, Bhutanese governments have reached out to Israel.

“They have been impressed by Israel’s abilities for many years, and their prime minister wanted relations,” he said. “We advise them on topics that are important to them like water management, agriculture and technology... education and professional training as well. They’re very interested in the topic of medicine.”

Bhutan’s government “thinks of Israel as a leading country in technology and innovation that can help them progress and use more advanced technology and train their youth.”

Another area in which Thimphu has sought Jerusalem’s advice is in building a national service program for its youth.

As for tourism, the country that limits the number of outsiders who can enter will now likely be more open to Israelis, Malka said, though no precise numbers have been discussed.

“They let very few people visit, even though it is very attractive, because they want to preserve its history and its nature and environment,” Malka said. “It was very hard before, but now Israelis will be more accepted – and they will want to develop [Israeli] tourism.”

Malka has visited Bhutan twice and said that it is “a very special place that is different from anywhere else. They really preserved their culture and their natural resources. There is not even one traffic light; it is very natural.”

It is still unclear if Israel will open an embassy in Thimphu; Malka may become the non-resident ambassador to Bhutan, just as he is to Sri Lanka in addition to residing in Delhi, from which Thimphu is a two-hour flight.

Israeli Foreign Minister Gabi Ashkenazi and Foreign Minister of Bhutan Tandy Dorji spoke on the phone last weekend.

“I want to thank the Kingdom of Bhutan and praise the decision to establish full diplomatic relations with Israel,” Ashkenazi said. “I invite my friend Foreign Minister Dorji to visit Israel to promote cooperation between the countries. I hope that in the next year we will host the King of Bhutan for his first official visit to Israel.”

Ashkenazi also thanked Malka and the embassy staff for working to strengthen Israel’s ties to Bhutan and for bringing them to fruition.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu praised the new relations and called it “another fruit of the peace agreements,” adding that Israel is in touch with more countries that want to establish ties with the Jewish state.

Hundreds of Bhutanese citizens have participated in agricultural training programs through MASHAV, Israel’s development agency.

Israel briefly had a non-resident ambassador to Bhutan in 2010. Mark Sofer, was ambassador to India and non-resident ambassador to Sri Lanka at the time.

In 2017, Gilad Cohen, the head of Israel’s Asia-Pacific division, became the most senior Israeli official to visit Bhutan. During his trip, he met the country’s prime minister.

Bhutan, which is about twice as large as Israel but only has 800,000 residents, is thought to be one of the most beautiful countries in the world, allowing television and the Internet only in 1999.

It uniquely measures its quality of life by “Gross National Happiness” instead of gross domestic product (GDP) – in fact, the World Happiness Report was a joint initiative of the Bhutanese prime Minister and the UN secretary General in 2011.

That metric emphasizes sustainable development, environmental conservation, preservation of culture and good governance, as well as mental and physical health, among other values.

The Bhutanese are thought to be among the happiest people in the world, and the happiest in Asia, but they are also among the world’s poorest.

Morocco-Israel ties to normalize in exchange for US recognizing Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara

Israel and Morocco have agreed to establish diplomatic relations, US President Donald Trump announced on Thursday. Morocco became the fourth Arab country to normalize ties with Israel in four months, following the Abraham Accords with the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Sudan.

 “Another historic breakthrough today!” Trump tweeted. “Our two great friends Israel and the Kingdom of Morocco have agreed to full diplomatic relations – a massive breakthrough for peace in the Middle East!”

Israel and Morocco plan to reopen economic liaison offices, which were closed in 2002, and work quickly to exchange ambassadors and begin direct flights, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said.

In addition, Trump announced that he signed a proclamation recognizing Moroccan sovereignty over the Western Sahara, a disputed territory. “Morocco’s serious, credible, and realistic autonomy proposal is the only basis for a just and lasting solution for enduring peace and prosperity!” he tweeted.

“Morocco recognized the United States in 1777.  It is thus fitting we recognize their sovereignty over the Western Sahara,” Trump added. No other UN member states recognize Western Sahara as part of Morocco.

The Trump administration viewed finalizing establishment of ties between the two countries as a prime goal in the past few weeks.

White House Senior Adviser Jared Kushner said normalization “comes on the heels of four years of very, very hard work and very intense diplomacy.”

"The team, led by Jared Kushner, has worked on this deal for over a year," Avi Berkowitz, Special Representative for International Negotiations, who took part in negotiating the normalization agreement, told The Jerusalem Post. He added that he hopes that the deal will lead to a warm peace between the two countries.

The move is the culmination of a successful year of upgrading Israel’s relations with Arab and Muslim countries, beginning with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visiting Chad and meeting Sudan’s leader in Uganda, the Abraham Accords, as well as the warming relations and cooperation with Saudi Arabia, in addition to a number of other Arab states.

Early this year, as reported in Israeli media, Israel proposed a scenario to the White House similar to what has unfolded, that normalization of relations with Morocco would come in conjunction with American recognition of the Western Sahara.

French media reported that Morocco purchased three drones from Israel for $48 million in January. Like other Gulf States, Morocco views Iran as a threat. Rabat cut ties with Tehran in 2018, because Iran funded Western Sahara separatist movement Polisario via Hezbollah.

Long before that, Morocco had a relationship with Israeli intelligence agencies. Moroccan King Hassan II gave Israel recordings of an Arab League meeting that helped Israel prepare for the Six Day War in 1967, according to former IDF intelligence chief Shlomo Gazit and the former intelligence officer and cabinet minister Rafi Eitan. That same year, the Mossad helped Morocco abduct a dissident from France.

Netanyahus focused on the many Israelis of Moroccan origin and not security matters in his remarks on normalization, which he called a “great light of peace” in honor of Hanukkah.

“Everyone knows the warm ties of the kings of Morocco and the Moroccan people to the Jewish community there,” Netanyahu said. “Hundreds of thousands of Jews moved to Israel from Morocco and they form a living bridge between the people of Morocco and Israel. This solid base is the foundation on which we build this peace.”

Trump’s proclamation said the US “affirms, as stated by previous Administrations, its support for Morocco’s autonomy proposal as the only basis for a just and lasting solution to the dispute over the Western Sahara territory…An independent Sahrawi State is not a realistic option for resolving the conflict and that genuine autonomy under Moroccan sovereignty is the only feasible solution.”

“Therefore, as of today, the United States recognizes Moroccan sovereignty over the entire Western Sahara territory.”

The White House also urged the sides in the Western Sahara conflict to return to the negotiating table under the framework of Morocco’s plan for autonomy for the Sahrawi people of Western Sahara.

The US plans to open a consulate in Dakhla, in Western Sahara, which the Moroccan Foreign Ministry said would have “a primarily economic vocation.”

Kushner said recognizing Moroccan sovereignty in the Western Sahara was “something that seemed inevitable at this point; is something that we think advances the region and helps bring more clarity to where things are going.”

Following the announcement, President Trump spoke with King Mohammed VI of Morocco. According to a readout provided by the White House, “the leaders discussed cooperation in the fight against the coronavirus, ways to minimize its economic impact, and common interests in critical regional issues.”

“During the conversation the King agreed to resume diplomatic relations between Morocco and Israel and expand economic and cultural cooperation to advance regional stability,” the White House said in a statement.

King Mohammed told Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas in a phone call on Thursday that Rabat stands by a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, a royal court statement said.

The king added that negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians are the only way to reach a final, lasting and comprehensive solution to the conflict.

King Mohammed also highlighted his commitment to a two-state solution, as well as the importance of freedom of worship in Jerusalem, during his conversation with Trump.

The White House, not Netanyahu, informed Foreign Minister Gabi Ashkenazi and Defense Minister Benny Gantz of the developments with Morocco several weeks before they were made public, contrary to the UAE, Bahrain and Sudan deals in which they were told at the last minute.

Ashkenazi said “today is another great day for Israeli diplomacy, a day of light befitting the holiday of Hanukkah.

“Renewing relations between Israel and the Kingdom of Morocco is an important part of the Abraham Accords that reflects the deep and longstanding friendship between the nations. I call on more nations to join the Abraham Accords’ circle,” he stated.

Ashkenazi added that he would like to light Hanukkah candles at the Israeli embassy in Rabat next year.

Ambassador to the UN Gilad Erdan invited Morocco’s envoy in Turtle Bay to a Hanukkah candle-lighting ceremony.

Moroccan-born law professor Shimon Shetreet, a minister in the governments of Yitzhak Rabin and Shimon Peres, founding president of the World Union of Sephardi Jews and a declared candidate in the race for 11th president of the State of Israel, was delighted by the announcement, calling it “a great blessing.”

He anticipated that Israelis of Moroccan background would be happy over this development because “all Moroccan Jews have an emotional attachment to what used to be their homeland.”

Morocco was open to Israeli visitors before the normalization announcement, and Shetreet has led several delegations to Morocco. If there is a rabbi with the delegation, he recites memorial prayers in Hebrew for the King Hassan II who had been visited by both Rabin and Peres and was on good terms with them.

Iran not the problem in Middle East, says Russian Ambassador

“The problem in the region is not Iranian activities,” Russian Ambassador Anatoly Viktorov said at the Russian Embassy in Tel Aviv. “It’s a lack of understanding between countries and noncompliance with UN resolutions in the Israel-Arab and Israel-Palestinian conflict.”

Asked if the relatively limited scope of Israel’s conflict with the Palestinians destabilizes the region more than Iran does through proxies around the Middle East, like the Houthis in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon, Viktorov balked at the notion of Iranian funding the Shi’ite terrorist group.

“Israel is attacking Hezbollah; Hezbollah is not attacking Israel,” he added, referring to Israel bombing Iranian and Hezbollah and weapons convoys in Syria.

Viktorov said he has seen the tunnels from Lebanon into Israel, which Hezbollah operatives have used to attempt to attack Israel, and argued there is “no proof Hezbollah created the tunnels.”

The ambassador said Israel must “not attack the territories of sovereign UN members.”

Asked whether this is a change in the position, by which Israel gives Russia advanced notice before it attacks Iranian positions near the Syria-Israel border, Viktorov said no, because “coordination is about the safety of the Russian military in Syria.” However, he added, “there is no way that we are approving any Israeli strikes on Syria, never in the past and never in the future.”

With regard to recent International Atomic Energy Agency reports that Iran has developed more centrifuges to a further extent than permitted by the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), as the 2015 Iran nuclear deal is known, Viktorov said he does not agree that Iran has violated the agreement.

“The first step was made by... our American colleagues who unfortunately decided to quit the JCPOA [in 2018],” he said. “They quit the plan and that allowed the Iranian side to undertake some steps which are not in full compliance with the plan, which is unfortunate as well.”

Though Viktorov would only call Joe Biden “the possibly elected president” of the US, pointing out that he was only “appointed by the press” and not officially declared the victor, he said Russia “took note of some statements” that Biden seeks to rejoin the JCPOA.

If the US returns to the deal, “it will make many things simpler,” he said. “It will be helpful to reduce concerns and allow the Iranians to develop a peaceful atomic energy program and allow [the IAEA] to look at what is going on in the military sphere.”

“Maybe some provisions could be modified,” he said, in reference to Biden’s statements that he will strengthen the JCPOA, “but it’s a matter of negotiation with the interested parties, the Iranian authorities.”

As for whether Russia would sell arms to Iran after the UN arms embargo was lifted earlier this year, he said: “Iran is a sovereign state, why not? I am not familiar with specific plans; it’s a matter of negotiations.”

Viktorov said Russia is supportive of the Abraham Accords, in which Israel established diplomatic relations with the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Sudan, and said “any move towards interaction is a positive development, in of itself.”

Still, he said, “Israel should sit down and talk about how to take everybody’s legitimate concerns into account and not create alliances and blocs against somebody else,” an apparent reference to partnerships with Gulf states against Iran.

“We strongly believe that the Palestinian question should not be put aside. The normalization should not replace a Palestinian-Israeli settlement because this problem will remain and will continue to endanger not only the countries and peoples of the region but also many others around the globe,” he stated, while calling for a two-state solution.

Viktorov warned that the continuing Israeli-Palestinian conflict is “allowing terrorists to recruit more supporters into their ranks.”

Russia’s offer for Israel and the Palestinians to hold direct negotiations in Moscow still stands, as well as a suggestion to hold an international conference on the matter, he added.

Viktorov also spoke of his country’s efforts to combat COVID-19, saying that massive vaccination began this week in the Moscow region and will be distributed to all regions of the Russian Federation.

“We are sure our vaccine is not the worst in the world,” he said of doubts about the Russian inoculation.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Russian President Vladimir Putin discussed the matter in a phone call on November 16, and since then, Israeli and Russian authorities have been in contact coordinating the delivery of 1.5 million doses to Israel, he said.

“We feel the intention of our Israeli colleagues to diversify the use of vaccines in Israel is a good approach,” Viktorov said.

How OPEC Sees Oil Market In 2021?

Last week, Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), in conjunction with some Russia-led oil producers, agreed to increase oil output by 500,000 barrels per day (BPD) in January 2021. The oil markets rallied, because there were some concerns that OPEC could increase production by 2 million BPD.

There was reportedly a lot of disagreement among OPEC members prior to the announced agreement. The United Arab Emirates reportedly pushed hard for a larger production increase, which it argued the global oil market could absorb.

The global oil markets have rallied over the past six weeks, driven primarily by news that vaccines will soon be available to fight the COVID-19 pandemic. The much anticipated end to the pandemic offers some hope of recovery in global oil demand that has plummeted since the start of the pandemic.

OPEC members certainly want to take advantage of this spike in prices, but the reality is that oil demand is probably still a few months away from bouncing back substantially. In fact, given the precarious state of the US economy — and the fact that it will be late winter at the earliest before a substantial portion of the population is vaccinated — US oil demand may not return to normal until the second half of 2021.

That poses a risk that OPEC is putting more oil into an already oversupplied market, with the risk that this will send oil prices down yet again. So what could be OPEC likely strategy?

Analysts can get an idea by looking at OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report. The report projects that global economic growth is going to contract by 4.3% in 2020, but 2021 forecast projects global growth of 4.4%.

While OPEC expects final 2020 oil demand to be 9.8 million BPD, lower than 2019, it projects oil demand to bounce back by 6.2 million BPD in 2021. OPEC expects the strongest demand growth in 2021 from India (14%), China (9%), the US (7%), and Europe (7%).

We can look at OPEC’s expectations for oil supply growth in 2021 and see why some members are pushing for a greater production increase. After non-OPEC oil supply contracted by 2.5 million BPD in 2020, OPEC projects that non-OPEC supply will expand by less than one million BPD in 2021. OPEC had cut production by nearly 10 million BPD as the pandemic grew, and producers are anxious to recapture some of those production cuts.

If OPEC forecast is correct, then the world could face an oil supply shortage in 2021. Therefore, some of the members are asking for a greater production increase.