Jebel Ali Port receives first shipment from Israel

According to media reports, Jebel Ali Port, a major Dubai port has received the first export shipments from Israel. The shipment has been sent by Emirati firm Kimoha from Ashdod of adhesive tape manufactured by Israeli company Davik. The shipment is the first to arrive in the United Arab Emirates and even more notably at one of the busiest ports in the world, since the Abraham Accords normalized ties between the two countries.

“We would like to congratulate Kimoha Entrepreneurs FZCO for adding value to the UAE and Israel diplomatic relations by initiating trade association with Israel-based establishments,” Dubai Ports World (DP), which operates the port, CEO and chairman Sultan Ahmed bin Sulayem said in a statement.

“And we are glad that Jebel Ali Port could be an intrinsic part of the transfer from Israel to the UAE. We take great pride in being involved in this momentous achievement that is integral for both countries. This operation is just the beginning of trade and commerce activities. We are confident that this move will be the starting point for trade activities that will have a significant impact on both economies, and the business in the region. We are in complete support of the leadership of the UAE and will do everything in our capacity to foster trade ties with Israel and accelerate economic growth.”

“It is an honor to be able to partake and initiate a significant move that will greatly influence the trade exchange in the UAE and Israel,” said Kimoha chairman Kiran Asher.

“This move will go down in the history of the two countries. We cannot thank DP World enough for helping us to make this transfer a seamless process. We have been running operations from Jafza since 1988, and I must say that it is an ideal location to set industries and connect with the world. Emirates NBD, the largest banking group in the UAE supported this transaction seamlessly.”

DP World is playing an active role since ties between Israel and the UAE were normalized. In early November, it teamed up with Israel Shipyards to try to win the tender to run Haifa Port, and the company is an expert at maximizing efficiency of harbors, even one as relatively small as Haifa's.

What after Fakhrizadeh assassination?

If the reports are true that Israel was involved in Mohsen Fakhrizadeh’s killing, the manner in which it was carried out – in broad daylight and without anyone being caught – shows again Israel’s tremendous capabilities, that is something Iran would be wise to take into consideration while weighing its next moves.

Friday’s assassination of Iran’s top nuclear scientist Fakhrizadeh led to predictable concern from those who prepared the Iranian nuclear deal in 2015. Former CIA head John Brenner was furious, “This was a criminal act and highly reckless,” he tweeted. “Such an act of state-sponsored terrorism would be a flagrant violation of international law and encourage more governments to carry out lethal attacks against foreign officials.”

Ben Rhodes, President Barack Obama Deputy National Security Advisor for Strategic Communications was indignant, “This is an outrageous action aimed at undermining diplomacy between an incoming US administration and Iran,” he tweeted. “It’s time for this ceaseless escalation to stop.”

Jeremy Ben-Ami of the left-wing J Street lobbying group was furious. “The assassination of a senior Iranian nuclear scientist appears to be an attempt to sabotage the ability of the incoming Biden administration to re-enter the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), as well as the chances of further diplomacy, either by limiting the political leeway of Iranian officials who want to restore the deal, or by triggering an escalation leading to military confrontation,” he said.

Each of these reactions pushed the same theme: whoever carried this out – and all fingers are pointed at Israel – intended to limit President-elect Joe Biden’s space for maneuvering and sabotage any possible diplomacy with Iran.

The unstated subtext of this type of criticism is the same, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu still leading the way, trying to sabotage diplomatic efforts to solve the Iranian nuclear dilemma and undermine the Biden presidency from the get-go.

But that is wrong, the assassination of Fakhrizadeh is not about Biden, it is about Israel’s nearly three-decade effort to prevent Iran from getting a bomb. It is Israel trying to demolish a threat for its existence.

The assassination is just the latest in a series of steps over the last three decades taken to prevent Iran from getting the ability to do it. The killing of Fakhrizadeh will set back Iran’s efforts to attain the bomb because he was a key player in the nuclear program.

Iran has been unable to realize its nuclear ambitions up until now, though it has been trying since the end of the Iran-Iraq War in 1988, is not because of a lack of trying, or because they are any less capable than any of the other countries that have nuclear weapons. Rather, it’s because of actions that Israel and others in the West have taken over the years to bar their path.

These actions included setting up straw companies selling damaged goods to the Iranians so that when they would spin their centrifuges, they would blow up; computer worms and cyber sabotage; mysterious explosions; and assassinations.

Most people, when imagining how Israel might stop Iran from getting a bomb, imagine it will be via bombs or missiles falling from the skies, as was the case when Israel destroyed the Iraqi nuclear reactor in 1981, or the Syrian one in 2007. It has to be a new strategy and a new game plan in 2020.

Iran has been kept from reaching its nuclear goals through numerous actions, of which the killing of Fakhrizadeh is just the most recent one, through one big dramatic explosion. To present the killing of Fakhrizadeh as a move intended simply to make things more complicated for Biden is to fail to fully appreciate the degree to which the Israeli government genuinely believes a nuclear Iran is an existential threat that must be stopped at all costs.

The killing need not undermine the diplomacy that Biden might want to pursue. The hit was carried out under the outgoing Trump administration. If Iran does indeed want to turn over a new leaf with the new administration – which it is very much in its interests to do – then it would only be counterproductive to let this killing stand in the way.

Israeli perspective that the JCPOA is a non-starter because under its terms, Iran will be able to produce as much nuclear fuel as it wants in 2030 is worth noting. And as steps such as Friday’s assassination show, Israel – if it was involved – is not going to sit idly by and allow what it deems to be an existential threat to develop, regardless of who is the US president.

OPEC plus leaning towards oil cut extension

According to media reports, OPEC and allies (OPEC plus) are leaning towards delaying next year’s planned increase in oil output to support the market during the second wave of COVID-19 and rising Libyan output, despite a rise in prices.

OPEC plus was due to raise output by 2 million barrels per day (bpd) in January 2021, about 2% of global consumption as it moves to ease this year’s record supply cuts. With demand weakening, OPEC plus has been considering delaying the increase.

Russia is likely to agree on a rollover of current output for the first quarter if needed, a source familiar with the issue said, and would prefer to decide later on extending for the second quarter.

“It looks like the extension is needed,” the source said, citing “possible price drops and demand uncertainties” amid the second wave of the virus.

Oil has rallied in the past weeks, rising to its highest since March this year, near US$49 a barrel, on hopes that coronavirus vaccines will lead to higher demand. This hasn’t changed OPEC plus thinking around the extension.

 “This increase in prices is about sentiment, but we need to extend to have solid market fundamentals to support the prices,” said one. “So far, the best choice is the three-month extension.”

Still, enthusiasm for extended cuts is not universal, delegates and analysts say.

A potential complication is the United Arab Emirates’ wish for a higher OPEC plus quota, Goldman Sachs said this week.

Nigeria also wants a higher quota, and Iraq has talked about being exempt from 2021 reductions.

Goldman said it did not expect such a push from the UAE to derail the extension, and Iraq has said it will support any unanimous OPEC plus decision.

There are several technical meetings this week to prepare the ground for ministerial gatherings on Monday and Tuesday. All meetings are virtual due to the pandemic.

Christyan Malek, Managing Director and Head of oil & gas research at J.P. Morgan, said he expected OPEC+ plus to delay the increase by up to six months despite the price rally, with Saudi Arabia possibly offering deeper voluntary cuts until March next year.

“Inventories are not coming down as quickly as expected. Lockdowns are moving east to west, with more lockdowns expected in the US,” he said.

Malek said the departure of Donald Trump as US President, who was seen by some in OPEC as a friend after he helped bring Russian President Vladimir Putin into the OPEC plus output cut in April, would actually boost the producer alliance.

“Without Trump, OPEC plus is getting stronger rather than weaker,” he said. “Putin is using OPEC plus to get closer to Saudi Arabia, as the departure of Trump creates a bit of a vacuum in the US-Saudi relations.”

According to another report, Saudi Arabia and Russia summoned OPEC plus ministers who oversee their oil production cuts for last-minute talks on Saturday, as the cartel prepares for a decision on whether to delay January’s output increase.

A clear majority of OPEC plus watchers expect the group to maintain their supply curbs at current levels for a few months longer due to lingering uncertainty about demand. However, the decision is by no means certain amid public complaints from Iraq and Nigeria, and private discord with the United Arab Emirates.

The two leading members of OPEC and its allies, Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak and Saudi Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman, requested an informal video conference with their counterparts from the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee, which includes Algeria, Kazakhstan, Iraq, Nigeria and the UAE, according to a letter seen by Bloomberg.

The unscheduled gathering comes just two days before a full OPEC ministerial meeting on November 30, which will be followed by OPEC plus talks on December 01. The JMMC met online as recently as November 17, but that ended without any kind of recommendation about delaying the January supply increase.

On Thursday, Algerian Energy Minister Abdelmadjid Attar, who this year holds OPEC’s rotating presidency, told Bloomberg that the group must remain cautious because the recent surge in oil to US$45 a barrel in New York could prove fragile.

A separate meeting of a committee of OPEC technical experts considered data that pointed to the risk of a new oil surplus early next year if the cartel and its allies decide to go ahead with the production increase. The 23-nation OPEC plus is scheduled to ease its 7.7 million barrels a day of production cuts by 1.9 million barrels a day from January 01, 2021

Can Iran become a dependable source of copper for Pakistan?

Pakistan imports substantial quantity of refined/purified copper to meet its industrial demand. At present the metal is being imported from far-flung countries, costing huge freight cost. Pakistan can’t import copper from Iran due to the sanctions imposed on the country by the United States.

Production of copper cathode in Iran increased six percent during the first half of the current Iranian calendar this year as compared to the same period last year. Copper cathode output was recorded at about 139,900 tons during the period under reviews, while the budgeted figure was 130,015 tons. Monthly copper cathode production was 24,198 tons or 10 percent higher than the figure of the same month in the previous year.

Production of copper cathode this year is budgeted at 280,000 tons as against reported production of 250,000 tons last year.

In early May, four development projects worth slightly more than US$952 million were inaugurated in the copper sector of Kerman Province in the southeast of Iran.

The projects inaugurated in Khatoon Abad Copper Complex included increasing the capacity of copper smelting in the complex, building a copper concentrate storage, construction of a sulfuric acid production plant, and an oxygen supplying unit. 

By putting the first project into operation, the complex’s capacity for producing copper anode rose by 50 percent to 120,000 tons, and the country’s copper smelting capacity rose to 400,000 tons. This project created jobs for 120 persons.

The second project, which was the construction of a 60,000-ton storage facility, was implemented at the cost of about US$3.7 million plus three million euros, creating jobs for 250 people. The third project was valued at about US$17.8 million plus 100 million euros and the fourth one was put into operation at the cost of about US$4.5 million plus 31 million euros.

Iran has seen its copper exports doubled in the past Iranian calendar year despite a series of bitter sanctions imposed by the United States aimed at hampering the Islamic Republic’s trade of metals.