The US is bowing out without having achieved its original objectives. The withdrawal also poses serious consequences for Afghanistan, the region and NATO’s reputation.
After the Vietnam fiasco and the Iraq debacle, as well as the example of the Soviet defeat in Afghanistan, the US and its allies should have been wiser in their choice of intervention, but Afghanistan’s case clearly demonstrates the opposite. These interventions have been driven by the view that the super power has the necessary military power to easily overwhelm an enemy, which has turned out to be untrue.
Washington’s planners may have proved very effective in invading a country, but have been defeated invariably in every war. Four interrelated themes explain America’s failure in these three countries.
First, Washington’s inability to comprehend the complexity of the country it has invaded and the region. The US may have been good at overthrowing governments but has no idea when it comes to their replacement. The US invades without a clear and deep understanding of the very complicated nature of their societies and intricacies of their neighborhoods.
Second, the US hasn’t been able to secure a credible and effective partner on the ground in the invaded country. This was true in South Vietnam and has been also the case with Iraq and Afghanistan. Every leader and government that the US has backed in these countries has proved to be incompetent, manipulative, unpopular and incapable of generating national unity.
Third, US hasn’t been able to sell its invasions and fulfill its original promises to the people of these countries. The disillusionment in the invaded countries and in the US has undermined its war efforts.
Fourth, Washington has learned little or nothing from its past experiences: it is not well equipped or suited for fighting national insurgencies. The insurgents have shown the staying power to exhaust the US.
All of these issues have come together to demonstrate why America’s Afghanistan adventure has failed.
President Joe Biden’s declaration to withdraw troops is a clear admission of defeat. He is doing what his predecessor and long-standing critic of the Afghan war Donald Trump had set out to do.
The tragedy is that the withdrawal follows very high human and material costs for the US and its allies as well as for the Afghan people. The war has over US$2 trillion.
Afghan’s human and property losses have been far greater. Current estimates put the number of civilians and security service men and women killed at more than 100,000, with many more injured and displaced.
All the promises made initially by President George W. Bush to free Afghans and to transform the country into a stable, secure, prosperous democracy seem farther from the reality.
The US and its allies will leave behind a broken Afghanistan, just as the US left South Vietnam and Iraq. With no political settlement or ceasefire in place Taliban have already clinch victory.
Taliban are now well positioned to get control over Kabul, but the takeover will not be the end of the Afghan conflict. On the contrary the conflict will continue with more suffering for the poor Afghans.
