There are two important developments worth examining. First,
Israel stopped its attacks on Iran, and Donald Trump also announced a halt to
US attacks. However, the conflict has not formally ended, and Washington
continues to keep its military options open.
Second, the narrative surrounding Houthi attacks on Saudi
Arabia, particularly allegations concerning the holy cities of Mecca and
Medina, appears to be gaining prominence. Saudi authorities have reported
missile and drone interceptions, including in the Mecca region. The Houthis,
however, have denied targeting the holy cities and maintain that their
operations are directed against strategic and military installations.
An important question arises: why does the confrontation
appear increasingly concentrated on Saudi Arabia? There have been no comparable
reports of Houthi attacks on other GCC countries or US military bases hosted by
them. This apparent selectivity deserves closer examination.
My concern is that the regional narrative may be undergoing
a subtle but significant transformation. For years, Washington and its allies
have projected Iran as a greater threat to regional stability than Israel. Now,
the growing focus on Houthi attacks against Saudi Arabia risks shifting
attention away from the original US-Israel-Iran confrontation.
There is another dimension that cannot be ignored; Saudi
Arabia's oil exports. Attacks or threats against its oil infrastructure,
particularly the East-West pipeline and export facilities, could undermine the
Kingdom's economic interests and disrupt global energy supplies. The Houthis
have claimed attacks on such installations, although individual claims require
independent verification. The Kingdom emerges as the principal target of a
wider strategy disrupting Saudi oil exports?
This is not a conclusion to be drawn lightly. However,
Riyadh must carefully assess whether the conflict is merely changing its
battlefield or whether Saudi Arabia itself is becoming the new center of
gravity.
