Deteriorating Israel-Arab relationships

Dynamics between Israel and the Arab world have taken a turn for the worse in the first few months of the current Israeli government headed by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

The positive momentum in Israel-Arab relations, which Netanyahu himself was the key in generating through the signing of the Abraham Accords in September 2020 and which picked up pace during the Naftali Bennett-Yair Lapid government that followed, has slowed down since the Netanyahu took office in late December 2022.

Netanyahu initially sought to continue his regional achievements after taking over once again as prime minister, and Arab leaders at first played along. But this quickly changed given his government’s harsh policies and extreme statements; soon, Arab warnings to Israel and condemnations of its actions became a recurring theme.

In parallel, meetings between Israeli and Arab heads of state and ministers became increasingly rare, even though practical cooperation continued and previous understandings have mostly endured.

Under Israel’s current government, only limited progress may be feasible in Israel-Arab relations. But conditions for positive change do exist and include marginalizing Israeli extremists, avoiding a flare-up with the Palestinians, reducing the domestic turmoil in Israel, and ensuring the effective involvement of both the United States and the European Union.

Preventive diplomacy enabled the convening of two regional security summits, creating a new mechanism for engagement to increase stability. With Ramadan concluding without a flare-up, a cease-fire reached in Gaza, and domestic turmoil in Israel quieting somewhat, there is potential for renewed Israel-Arab engagement and there are already indications that this is happening.

This trend will become more significant if the United States prioritizes it. That will require Netanyahu to show greater moderation on the Palestinian issue, limit extremists in his coalition, and further backtrack on domestic democratic erosion.

The US should advance regional security summits and the Negev Forum, include a Palestinian component in Israel-Arab cooperative endeavors and normalization efforts, and encourage the EU’s recent initiative to advance a comprehensive regional peace.