How will Russian gas shutoff affect the EU?

In early September, Russia announced that it would keep the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline to the EU closed until sanctions are lifted.

As the lifting of sanctions appears off the table, this implies that the EU will be without a large chunk of Russian gas supply this winter.

The impact on the EU economy will be twofold. First, Russia’s decision will keep gas prices high in the coming months—prices are currently around four times higher than a year ago—and likely weigh on the euro, dampening households’ purchasing power and consumption.

Second, the move raises the risk of energy rationing this winter, which could have a significant impact on industrial output.

Even before this latest development, analysts had expressed their apprehensions that the bloc may witness sharp slowdown of the economy. These projections are now set to be revised down in their next forecast.

That said, the effect on the European economy is still highly uncertain. For one, it will vary from country to country.

Those with large industrial sectors and with heavier reliance on Russian gas, such as Germany and Italy, are the most exposed.

Moreover, while Nord Stream 1 is the main route supplying Russian gas to Europe, it is not the only one, as gas is still flowing westward from Russia via Ukraine and Turkey.

The fate of these routes, together with the EU’s efforts to source alternative supply from the North Sea, the United States and Algeria, will be crucial in determining the extent of the upcoming supply crunch.

The weather will also play an important role; a mild winter would reduce gas demand for heating.

Finally, the EU has not sat on its hands in response to the Nord Stream shutdown. Member states are mulling a range of EU-wide options, from gas price caps to a windfall tax on energy companies, and measures to reduce energy demand.

Moreover, further fiscal support is to be expected at the national level. If approved, these measures will offset the fallout from constrained gas supplies to some degree.

As such, while Russian move is certainly a blow to the EU economy, it is not yet a death knell.

“The countries most likely to face gas shortages are Germany, Austria, Italy, the Czech Republic and Slovakia. Those countries' governments are already working to reduce demand and diversify their sources of gas, on the assumption that Russia is no longer a reliable supplier.

The spillover effects will be substantial for the rest of Europe too, with external demand and confidence suffering, and inflation remaining elevated.

On the potential economic fallout, analysts at Goldman Sachs said, a full shutdown could drive European household energy costs up by about 65% to around €500 (US$512) per month.

Industries like chemicals and cement in Germany and Italy might have to cut their gas usage by as much as 80%.

The euro-area economy would likely shrink by more than 2% through March 2023, with GDP in Italy and Germany declining as much as 4% and 3% respectively.

 

Iranian export to India increases 35%YoY

The value of Iranian export to India increased by 35% in the first seven months of 2022, as compared to the same period in 2021, Tasnim news agency reported citing the data released by the Indian Ministry of Commerce and Industry.

Iran exported commodities worth US$361 million to India in the seven-month period of this year, while the figure was US$267 million in the same time span of the past year.

Fruits were the major products Iran exported to India, accounting for 26% of the total exported items. Iran exported US$96 million of fruits to India in the mentioned time span.

During January-July of 2022, Indian export to Iran increased by 54% to US$1.243 billion, while the figure was $807 million in the first seven month of 2021.

Rice was India’s major product exported to Iran in the said time, as the product accounted for 66% of the country’s total export to the Islamic Republic.

India exported US$825 million of rice to Iran in the first seven months of this year, while the figure was US$641 million in the first seven months of 2021.

According to the Indian Ministry of Commerce and Industry, the value of trade between Iran and India was reported at US$1.604 billion during January-July 2022, rising 49% from US$1.074 billion in the same period of time in 2021.

In late May, Iranian ambassador to India said that Iran and India are trying to diversify the channels of payments to expand the bilateral trade.

In an exclusive interview with Financial Express Online, Ali Chegeni said, “We are trying to diversify the channels of payments and accordingly wish to extend and expand an already existing mechanism in order to cover all of the goods and services including all of non-oil goods and to achieve this”.

During the past two years, because of Covid restrictions, we pursue the issue via virtual dialogues and currently our officials are following the matter through the exchange of delegations, the envoy stated.

“We want to develop our economic and trade relations beyond energy and petrochemical products. Since due to the complementarily of Iran and India economies, an extensive range of non-oil trade exists between two sides including trade on goods and services, investment, tourism, education, which may pave the way for multiplying our economic relations ten times more than current relations in mid and long terms”, Chegeni said.

 

 

United States: Likely Freight Rail Strike

A potential nationwide freight rail strike is looming, threatening to cripple economy of the United States ahead of the holiday shopping season and November’s midterm elections.  

Roughly 115,000 rail workers could walk off the job as early as September 16, 2022 if they cannot agree to a new contract with railroads.  

That’s the first day workers could legally strike after a White House-appointed panel released collective bargaining recommendations aimed at ending years of contentious negotiations.  

Five of the 13 unions representing rail workers have reached tentative agreements with railroads to enact the Presidential Emergency Board (PEB) recommendations, which call for 24% pay raises, back pay and cash bonuses.

But most of the railroad workers belong to unions that haven’t yet agreed to a deal. It’s also unclear whether workers would vote to ratify PEB recommendations that don’t address their concerns about punishing hours and rigid schedules that make it difficult to take time off for any reason.  

“I would suspect that most railroad workers would love to strike, would love to get back at their employers after years of abuse while they watched the industry make record profits,” said Ron Kaminkow, an organizer at Railroad Workers United, which represents rank-and-file railroaders. 

More than 9 in 10 railroad workers would vote to reject the PEB recommendations and go on strike, according to a recent survey from the organization.  

Still, Kaminkow noted that workers could change their minds when faced with the prospect of years of back pay and the reality that Congress can take away their main source of leverage at any time. 

Federal law gives Congress the power to block or delay a railroad strike. If workers were to walk out, lawmakers could vote to enact the PEB deal or appoint arbitrators to fast-track a new contract, among a range of other options. 

The Association of American Railroads, which estimates that a national rail shutdown would cost the US at least US$2 billion a day, said that lawmakers should vote to implement the PEB recommendations in the event of a strike to instantly reward employees and reduce economic uncertainty. 

Experts say that an extended walkout would devastate industries that rely on freight to transport grain, coal, diesel, steel and motor vehicle parts. Shipping containers would pile up at ports, severely congesting supply chains and sending prices soaring ahead of the holidays.  

“The railroads are actually very critical to the nation’s economy, and also to security. There’s a lot of hazardous stuff that simply can’t go by road,” said Nicholas Little, Director of Dailway education at Michigan State University’s Center for Railway Research and Education.  

While Democrats are closely aligned with labor unions, organizers acknowledge that they likely wouldn’t allow for an extended strike just before the midterm elections. President Joe Biden, who created the PEB in July to help resolve the contract dispute, is laser focused on unclogging supply chains. 

“After the pandemic and supply chain disruptions of the past two years, now is not the time for more uncertainty and disruption,” a White House official told The Hill. “Now is the time for the parties to resolve their differences, before the nation’s economy begins responding to even the prospect of a nationwide rail stoppage.” 

While both unions and railroads say they want to avoid a strike, some see a work stoppage as the only way to win better working conditions.  Over the last six years, the top freight carriers laid off 45,000 employees, or nearly 30% of their combined workforce, according to the Surface Transportation Board. That left trains understaffed when demand picked up, leading to service disruptions and overworked crew members.   

Workers complain that they often cannot secure time off, even for scheduled doctor’s appointments or family events, and are disciplined whenever they miss a day for any reason. They say they don’t receive sufficient notice or rest before starting a days-long shift that could take them hundreds of miles from home.  

“Emotionally, you’re just drained,” Robert Hollifield, an electronics technician, said at a railroad worker town hall hosted by the AFL-CIO’s Transportation Trades Department last month. “Every time the phone rings, you go into a minor panic wondering where you’re going to have to go and how long you’re going to be gone away from your family.” 

Many workers saw this round of negotiations as a key opportunity to revamp those policies and were disappointed when the PEB recommendations largely ignored them. There’s a growing sense of resignation that even if they want to strike, Congress won’t let them.

Congress last acted to end a rail strike 30 years ago. Most of today’s lawmakers and their top aides have never dealt with the issue before and have little knowledge of the process, likely giving industry insiders more influence. 

The Brotherhood of Locomotive Engineers and Trainmen and the International Association of Sheet Metal, Air, Rail and Transportation Workers said in a Labor Day statement that railroads all but hide behind Congress in their efforts to reject workers’ demands. 

“While there are no guarantees for either side as to what Congress might do if they are involved, there is no doubt that the rail carriers expect Congress to intervene to save them from dealing fairly with their employees if there is a job action,” they said.

 

US and EU making the world a big fool

The United States and European Union have ramped up buying key industrial metals from Russia, despite logistical problems spurred by the war in Ukraine and tough talk about foreign exchange starved Moscow.

The metal shipments highlight the West's difficulty in pressuring Russia's economy, which has performed better than expected and seen its currency (rouble) surge as buoyant oil revenue has helped offset the impact of sanctions. 

The US and EU import of Russia's main base metal products, aluminium and nickel, during March-June period increased by as much as 70% shows official trade data.

The total value of US and EU imports of the two metals from March to June were reported at US$1.98 billion.

The West has imposed repeated waves of sanctions on a wide range of Russian products, people and institutions, but has largely spared the industrial metals sector.

A US State Department spokesperson said in response to a query from Reuters, "Although we don't preview our sanctions actions, nothing is off the table to increase the price on Putin's unjustified war against Ukraine."

Analysts said the United States and Europe have learned lessons after huge disruption on construction, auto and power sectors caused by sanctions imposed by former US President Donald Trump on Russian aluminium 2018. Those sanctions were lifted the following year.

Prices of both metals surged to record peaks shortly after Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine on February 24 on fears that sanctions or difficult logistics would block shipments.

But those fears were unfounded, since the data show Russian exports during March to June were relatively strong.

"Market mechanisms are working," said Julius Baer analyst Carsten Menke, referring to Russian metals shipments.

"We know from commodity traders it's mainly a question of the price. It's not so much about some politician not wanting you to buy, but is there a deal here."

Russia's Rusal is the world's largest aluminium producer outside China and accounts for about 6% of estimated world production.

During the four months following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the EU was the biggest importer of unwrought aluminium from Russia, pulling in an average of 78,207 tons a month in March-June, 13% more than the same period last year.

Rotterdam, Europe's largest port, said in a report total volumes rose 0.8% in the first half of 2022, but "break bulk" - cargo that does not fit in containers -- rose sharply by 17.7%, driven by higher imports of metals.

A port spokesperson told Reuters that shipments of aluminium and nickel were still arriving in the port since they are not sanctioned, but declined to give any figures.

US monthly imports of Russian aluminium averaged 23,049 tons in March-June, up 21% from the same period last year.

"For the Americans, it's very important that they get as many different aluminium sources as possible," said Tom Price, Head of Commodities Strategy at Liberum.

"They're very reluctant to get any metal from China, where exports are shrinking, so Russian Rusal aluminium is very important, that is the reason they haven't shut that trade down."

Russian aluminium imports to last year's top seven destinations in March to June averaged 221,693 tons a month, 9% less than the same period last year, but 4% higher than the monthly average for all of 2021.

In nickel, Russia accounts for about 10% of global output and the country's Nornickel makes about 15%-20% of the world's battery-grade nickel. Nickel imports from Russia by the top three destinations in March-June rose 17% year-on-year. The United States saw the biggest gains, surging 70% compared to last year, while EU shipments gained 22%.

Benchmark nickel on the London Metal Exchange doubled to a record above US$100,000/ton on March 08, prompting the LME to suspend trading and cancel deals.

 

Ukrainian President rings NYSE bell, remotely

Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelenskiy remotely rang the opening bell at the New York Stock Exchange on Tuesday. He appealed for billions of dollars in private investment to rebuild factories and industries destroyed by Russia.

Zelenskiy's government launched a platform of over 500 projects worth US$400 billion for foreign companies and private investors to help rebuild Ukraine's economy, even as the war with Russia drags on.

Zelenskiy appeared on a video screen behind the platform overlooking the NYSE floor where the opening bell is traditionally rung. Traders applauded and whooped while a banner read: "We are free. We are strong. We are open for business."

Fresh from a roundtable with top executives from JP Morgan, Pfizer and other US companies, Zelenskiy said in English that Ukraine was already rebuilding its economy, more than six months since the Russian invasion began.

"Ukraine is the story of a future victory and a chance for you to invest now in projects worth hundreds of billions of dollars to share the victory with us," he said.

Ukraine is also appealing for some US$5 billion in international aid each month to keep its economy running, in addition to military aid from NATO alliance members.

The United States and allies in Europe and Asia have already sent billions in humanitarian aid, weapons and other security spending, and officials are watching closely for any signs domestic political support could be flagging.

"Advantage Ukraine," the investment push, focuses on 10 key sectors, including the military-industrial complex, energy, pharmaceuticals, metallurgy, woodworking, and logistics.

"It is necessary to invest in Ukraine now, and not wait for the end of the war," Economy Minister Yulia Svyrydenko said in a statement.

Advertising group WPP is leading the marketing campaign for the initiative.

Svyrydenko told Reuters last month that Ukraine's economy should stabilize over the coming year and expand by as much as 15.5% in 2023, after a likely contraction of 30-35% this year.

On Tuesday, she said Ukraine was keen to bring back foreign direct investment, which she said had reached US$6.7 billion before the war. "The Russian invasion adjusted our short-term plans, but did not force us to abandon our strategic goals," she said.

Concerns about corruption had tempered foreign investor interest in Ukraine before the invasion.

The economy ministry is also providing grants to existing businesses, and has relocated 700 businesses from the frontlines of the conflict.

 

Container spot rates start receding

According to Seatrade Maritime News, there is no longer fundamental support for the very high container spot rates seen in the market over the last 18 months as vessel utilization numbers start to normalize.

Container spot rates are starting to decline sharply from their highs and last week the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) dropped 9.7%WoW down 306.56 points to 2846.42 points on 2 September and is down 32%QoQ. The SCFI stood at a record high of 5,051 points in January this year.

The record high spot rates seen over the last 18 months have been driven by exceptionally high utilization rates, very close to 100%, on the main deep-sea trades, at which point Lars Jensen, CEO of Vespucci Maritime said the pricing curve become almost vertical.

 “This is the point where there is physically no more capacity at all whilst there is excess demand in the market. The data shows that it is at this point spot rates go to the historical highs we have seen over the past 18 months,” he said in report published by the Baltic Exchange.

Utilization rates on the Transpacific trade have dropped to 90% or below over the last three months, below what Jensen says is the 91 – 95% threshold on the trade that drove record high spot rate levels.

Similarly on Asia – Europe utilization has dropped to 81% or below over the last five months while the threshold is around 85% to drive a near vertical pricing curve.

 “This means that there is no structural support for the pricing dynamic where insufficient demand leads customers to overbid on pricing to ensure available space on the vessels,” Jensen said. Further weakening of spot rates going forward is expected.

A similar conclusion is drawn by Parash Jain, Head of Shipping & Ports & Asia Transport Research, HSBC Global Research. “As vessel utilization declines from 95-100%, skyrocketed spot freight rates could lose support quickly and revert back to a more normalized level,” he said in a note sent on Monday.

HSBC forecasts spot rates could fall another 58% in 2023 and 37% in 2024 on average before reaching the bottom.

Jensen noted that bottlenecks in global container trades had decreased with 9.8% of the global fleet unavailable due to delays in July compared to 13.8% in January.

Current levels are still well above the 2% seen in normal market conditions, does in effect release more capacity into the market at a time when global container volumes are falling.

What the sharp falls in spot rates will mean for long-term contract rates and container line profitability is a point of contention.

Last week HSBC’s Jain forecast an 80% drop in profitability for container lines in 2023-24.

While Blue Alpha Capital founder John McCown believes too much emphasis is being placed on spot at that while container lines maybe at or near their peak of profitability, a collapse is not imminent.

Germany revamping LNG import capacity

The German Government has signed two memoranda of understanding with the country's top gas utilities for the delivery of two floating LNG import terminals.

According to a Reuters report, the deals, with Uniper, RWE, and EnBW, will see the vessels, due to be completed this winter, delivered by March 2024.

"This is an important date in the series of steps that we have been taking since the beginning of the year, to make ourselves independent and less susceptible to blackmail from (Russian President Vladimir) Putin, and to give Germany a robust and resilient energy infrastructure, or in this case gas infrastructure," Economy Minister Robert Habeck said.

LNG has become the last resort for energy-hungry Germany when Russia reduced flows via the main artery supplying the EU's biggest economy with natural gas. Most of it comes from the United States, but Germany has no import terminals for the super-chilled fuel that needs to be re-gasified at the point of entry into the country.

Stationary LNG import terminals take years to build while floating storage and regasification are much faster to install once their construction is completed.

US LNG volumes are not large enough to fully replace Russian gas flow via pipelines due to production capacity constraints, so Germany needs alternative suppliers, too.

Chief among these could be Qatar, but negotiations between Berlin and Doha ended without a deal earlier this year as the Qataris insist on long-term contracts and a clause that would oblige Germany not to resell any gas it is not using.

Meanwhile, the head of Germany's energy regulator warned that gas consumption would have to be cut deeper than the EU-wide voluntary 15% to 20% if the country is to avoid a harsh winter of shortages.

"If we fail to reach our target of 20% gas savings then there is a serious risk that we will not have enough gas," Klaus Mueller told the Financial Times earlier this week, which would lead to gas rationing.