Iran unveils a new warship packed with drones and missiles

Iran unveiled a new ship over the weekend called the Shahid Roudaki. It is part of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and was given a spotlight at Bandar Abbas port near the strategic Straits of Hormuz on Thursday. The ship is so interesting to Iran watchers that the United States Naval Institute ran a story about it.

On its surface this is just a transport ship, but Iran has crowded its deck with all sorts of weapons to show off what it can do. According to aerial photos and description the ship has been packed with multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS) that are mounted on fast boats. There is also an advanced 3rd Khordad air defense system and helicopters, as well as drones and anti-ship missiles. It is being termed a floating armory, or a floating “bazarr”.  

The Bell 412 helicopter appears to be one of those old American helicopters that Iran has because it once had a bell helicopter Textron factory under the Shah. The 3rd Khordad system is more recent. It was used to down a US$200 million American Global Hawk drone in June 2019. The six Ababil drones, noted in the photo, are part of Iran’s expanding drone arsenal. It is often alleged that Iran used drones and cruise missiles to attack Saudi Arabia in September 2019. Iran has also sent drones to Syria and used them to threaten Israel and provided them to Hezbollah.

According to H.I Sutton, who wrote the USNI news piece, the ship has four Qader anti-ship missiles, the Iranian version of the Chinese C-802. The ship is 492 feet long and 72 feet wide. It also has 23 mm anti aircraft guns. “It seems unlikely that these systems would be arrayed like this in normal operations. The small boats may be a common feature, but the other systems appear only representative of her potential capability and role,” Sutton writes. The assessment is that this ship is capable of long range missions and support.

Iran has a relatively weak navy. It relies on the IRGC fast boats to ward off US ships. The US warned the fast boats to stop harassing American ships in the spring and US President Donald Trump threatened to sink the Iranian ships. Iran has been training recently against a mock US aircraft carrier, a giant model it keeps sinking and strafing to show off. But Iran’s navy is no match for the American Fifth Fleet.  

The US Navy’s Nimitz Carrier Strike Group recently left the Persian Gulf to train with Japan, India and Australia for a drill called Malabar. The US is increasingly working with India on regional security. India is also a close partner of Israel and the UAE. US carriers can be at sea for a very long time. The Abraham Lincoln was at sea for 295 days, during which it also went to the US 5th Fleet base in Bahrain. US ships such as the guided-missile cruiser USS Philippine Sea and USNS Wally Schirra and USS Winston Churchill are in the area as well.  

Even though the US Navy has immense firepower, the new Iranian ship is still an asymmetric threat. Sutton writes in a separate post at Covert Shores “in fact while the IRGC-N has been limited to local operations in the Persian Gulf, the IRGC as a whole is active further afield. They have interests in Syria for example. So she may turn up in the Mediterranean to support IRGC efforts ashore. Or provide intelligence to proxy forces in conflicts which Iran is technically not involved in.” This might involve supporting the Houthis in Yemen, for instance.

Other experts, such as Jeremy Binnie of Janes Defense Weekly, noted that the new Iranian ship is likely a ship built in Italy in 1992 once called Galaxy F. He pointed out online that it carries a 2031 Radar unit that is used to “support long-range anti-ship missiles.” 

Could this be a forward base for the IRGC, or part of an expeditionary unit? It was provided to the IRGC likely to harass Iran’s foes. That could be Gulf states or Israel or the US. Iran has provided the Houthis with drones and ballistic missiles to attack Riyadh in recent years. The US Navy helped intercept three of these shipments over the years. The US also maintains what is called by those in the know; the “petting zoo” in Washington where captured Iranian missiles and drones provided to the Houthis are shown to experts.

Furthermore, Iran has been building new drones. It has showcased drones armed with missiles in September and it has shown off a new train capable of carrying ballistic missiles on November 5. An arms embargo on Iran ended last month and Iran says it may soon be exporting weapons.

Also Iran recently began working with North Korea again on missile development, US reports indicated in October. Iran has also shown off a new Pars satellite it wants to launch. Tal Inbar, an expert on aerospace technology, has tweeted images noting Iran’s Sejil missile put on a launcher and also reports about the deputy head of Iran’s Space Research Center Jafar Salehi announcing plans for a new launch of a 100kg satellite. The satellite may be for telecommunications. Iran launched its first military satellite in April.

Video of the ship was put online on November 19. Clearly Iran is sending yet another message to the region that it has the indigenous technology to build numerous weapons. Reports that this was an “aircraft carrier” style of ship were a bit exaggerated, but this new Iranian ship certainly gives the country more options at sea.

Iran has done joint training with Russia and Iran at sea, a message to the West and Gulf that it has allies in faraway places. Israel struck Iranian IRGC Quds Force sites in Syria on November 18. Israel said it was sending a message to Iran and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned Iran against entrenching in Syria. 

Saudi Arabia may not find Biden as bad as being perceived

Pakistan had enjoyed extremely cordial relations with Saudi Arabia and Iran in the past. Now, one is termed friend and other is declared foe of United States. One of the remote possibilities of easing tension between the arch-rivals is change of hearts after the change in White House. Many Muslim countries wish Joe Biden succeeds in restoring working relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran. The first step in this direction is Saudi Arabia accepting Joe Biden as friend getting ready for the reconciliation with Iran.

Under Donald Trump, Saudi Arabia got all the attention it wanted from the United States. While Joe Biden presidency may end the love-fest, the Kingdom’s leaders may not mind as much as one might think. King Salman bin Abdulaziz and his son, Crown Prince Mohammed, are set to lose much of what they gained during Trump’s four years in office.

A Joe Biden administration might seem all bad for the kingdom and for the crown prince who largely runs the country and assumed his role less than a year after Trump took office. While there will be greater scrutiny, especially over human rights, the country has an opportunity in a US president who isn’t all that different from Trump in regarding Saudi Arabia as a crucial ally in a volatile region.

“What Saudi Arabia has wanted is to be seen as a state like any other, to be a leader in the G-20, to have legitimacy,” said Karen Young, a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute. “What the Biden administration can offer is to say, ‘OK fine, you want to be treated like any other partner in the Middle East, no more special relationship, let’s lay it all out.’”

Saudi Arabia will get a fresh chance to burnish its bona fides this weekend when it hosts a virtual summit of the Group of 20 nations. It’s still unclear whether Trump will make a video appearance. In yet one more sign of the Trump administration’s long support for the regime, Secretary of State Michael Pompeo will visit the country’s leaders briefly on Sunday in the futuristic planned city of Neom.

Saudi Arabia already seems to be adjusting to the new political reality. After initially holding off, its leaders sent cables congratulating Biden and seeking warmer ties with the US. King Salman praised the historical deep-rooted relations between the two friendly countries, adding that both countries are keen to develop and enhance these relations in all fields.

During his election campaign, Biden referred to the country as a “pariah” and said he would end support for the war in Yemen, where a Saudi-led coalition has been fighting the Iran-aligned Houthis for more than five years in an effort to restore the internationally recognized government, contributing to one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises. At the same time, Biden has made clear Saudi Arabia is a “critical” partner in preserving stability in energy markets and the Middle East.

 “We should recognize the value of cooperation on counter-terrorism and deterring Iran,” Biden told the Council on Foreign Relations in July 2019. “But America needs to insist on responsible Saudi actions and impose consequences for reckless ones.” Such pledges to cooperate have helped keep calm in Saudi Arabia. Officials recognize that it is a less harsh tone than President Barack Obama took, he had once vented about the “so-called ally” and said Saudi Arabia must “share” the region with Iran.

Saudi Arabia’s leadership is also assuaged by Biden’s past comments. While he wants to rejoin the Iran nuclear deal that Trump abandoned, he also wants follow-on negotiations to strengthen the deal. Saudi Arabia regards Iran as its chief regional foe, and opposed the 2015 nuclear accord between Iran and world powers.

“Given the fact that we’re weaning ourselves off Arab hydrocarbon, Biden can pursue a different approach,” said Aaron David Miller, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and former Mideast official at the State Department. At the same time, he said, the Biden administration will want to make sure Saudi Arabia sees a smooth transition of its own should King Salman, who is 84 now, formally transfer power to the crown prince.

 

 

Can Trump initiate a war against Iran now?

Recently there were some reports about US President Donald Trump considering taking military action against Iran during his remaining few days at the White House.

According to a report by New York Times, “President Trump asked senior advisers in an Oval Office meeting whether he had options to take action against Iran’s main nuclear site in the coming weeks.

A range of senior advisers discouraged the president from moving ahead with a military strike. The advisers — including Vice President Mike Pence; Secretary of State Mike Pompeo; Christopher C. Miller, the acting defense secretary; and Gen. Mark A. Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff — warned that a strike against Iran’s facilities could easily escalate into a broader conflict in the last weeks of Trump’s presidency.”

While New York Times says Trump was the initiator of this plan, some other sources say the plan was initiated by other officials of the White House but Trump was not interested in it. 

Regarding the psychological warfare orchestrated against Iran, some points and possibilities should not be neglected. These include:

On the eve of the martyrdom of Lt. General Qasim Soleimani, assassinated in Iraq, the US administration was worried about possible Iran’s revenge and actions against the US interests in the region. Therefore, the recent US psychological war can be interpreted as a part of the White House’s efforts to create a balance of horror to prevent Iran’s possible measures against the US interests.

A question also arise, why has Trump revealed its plan if he really intended to pave the way for military action against Iran or its regional allies? Why didn’t he attack Iran or its allies before or after the assassination of Lt. Gen. Soleimani?

Trump’s possible move can also be considered as part of his efforts to increase the costs of his removal from power for his opponents and rival Biden and also to satisfy his rightist supporters.

Final point to ponder, it should not be forgotten that making such a dangerous decision that can lead to an all-out regional war cannot be made by Trump himself. Such a decision needs confirmation of both US Republicans and Democrats.

Any media report to introduce Trump as the only responsible for a possible attack on Iran aims to reduce the consequences of such a dangerous possible measure and limit Iran’s response.

US recent moves to reduce the number of its troops in Iraq and the region can be interpreted as the White House's tactic to decrease its possible fatalities and losses.

 

Can US$23 billion sale of arms to United Arab Emirates be stopped?

According to a Reuters report, three US senators said Wednesday that they would introduce legislation seeking to halt the Trump administration’s effort to sell more than US$23 billion of drones and other weapons systems to the United Arab Emirates (UAE), setting up a showdown with the president just weeks before he is due to leave office.

Democratic Senators Bob Menendez and Chris Murphy and Republican Senator Rand Paul will introduce four separate resolutions of disapproval of President Donald Trump’s plan to sell more than US$23 billion worth of Reaper drones, F-35 fighter aircraft and air-to-air missiles and other munitions to the UAE.

The huge sale could alter the balance of power in the Middle East, and members of Congress have scrape the administration’s attempt to rush it through, having sent a formal notice to Congress only last week.

Many lawmakers are concerned that the UAE would use the weapons in attacks that would harm civilians in Yemen, whose civil war is considered one of the world’s worst humanitarian disasters.

When the deal was announced, Amnesty International warned that the weapons would be used for “attacks that violate international humanitarian law and kill, as well as injure thousands of Yemeni civilians.”

While the resolutions bring attention to lawmakers’ questions about the massive sales, and could delay them, they are unlikely to stop them.

US law covering major arms deals lets senators force votes on resolutions of disapproval. However, to go into effect the resolutions must pass the Republican-led Senate, which rarely breaks from Trump. They also must pass the Democratic-led House of Representatives and survive Trump vetoes.

Incoming President, Joe Biden could ultimately stop them for reasons of national security, making a prediction on the final outcome difficult.

The senators said the Trump administration, seeking to rush the sale as it brokered a peace deal between the UAE and Israel, circumvented the normal review process. They said State and the Pentagon failed to respond to their inquiries.

Weaponry involved includes the world’s most advanced fighter jet, more than 14,000 bombs and munitions and the second-largest sale of U.S. drones to a single country.

The Senate Foreign Relations and House of Representatives Foreign Affairs committees have the right to review and attempt to block weapons sales.

Past measures to block arms sales over concerns about Yemeni casualties passed the House and Senate with bipartisan support, but failed to get enough Republican backing to override Trump’s vetoes.

Lawmakers have also expressed concern about whether the UAE sales would violate a longstanding agreement with Israel that any US weapons sold in the Middle East would not impair its “quantitative military edge” over neighboring states.

Menendez is the ranking Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and in line to become chairman next year if Democrats take control of the Senate in Georgia runoff elections in January.

 

Finally, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu calls US President-elect Joe Biden

Finally, Israeli President Reuven Rivlin and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called US President-elect Joe Biden on Tuesday, a week and a half after his victory in the presidential election. Netanyahu and Biden spoke for more than 20 minutes, and the Prime Minister’s Office said the conversation was warm. “The special relationship between the US and Israel is a fundamental part of Israel’s security and policy,” Netanyahu said.

Biden in turn thanked Netanyahu for congratulating him on his election win, according to his office, noting that he expects to work closely with Netanyahu in the future. Biden told Netanyahu he is deeply committed to the State of Israel and its security, according to the Prime Minister’s Office.

The two agreed to meet soon to discuss matters on the agenda and the need to strengthen the alliance between the US and Israel. The Prime Minister’s Office statement called Biden president-elect, which Netanyahu had previously not done.

Rivlin congratulated Biden on his election, saying he has “no doubt that under your leadership, the United States is committed to Israel’s security and success.” US-Israel “friendship is based on values that are beyond partisan politics,” Rivlin said. Biden thanked Rivlin for his congratulations and stated that he looks forward to working with Israel.

Rivlin touted the friendship between the two countries on three levels: First, that the US has no stronger ally than Israel; second, the great friendship between the Israeli and American people; and third, that “the president of the United States of America has no greater friend than the president of the State of Israel, as we have proven over the years.”

Rivlin also said he hoped Biden would work to build on the recently signed Abraham Accords and facilitate ties between Israel and more countries in the region. In addition, Rivlin invited Biden to Jerusalem and sent his regards to Vice President-elect Kamala Harris.

The statement about Netanyahu’s call came out 27 minutes after Rivlin’s office sent its statement. The Prime Minister’s Office said it was scheduled in advance and not in reaction to the president calling. A spokesman for Netanyahu was unaware of the timing and said Biden did not mention speaking to Rivlin first. The President’s Residence did not respond to inquiries about the timing of the call.

The delay of a week and a half in calling Biden, when other world leaders did so much sooner – and the 12-hour delay in Netanyahu releasing a congratulatory message after news outlets called Biden’s victory on November 7 – fueled speculation that the prime minister was trying to avoid angering President Donald Trump.

In his message to the cabinet the morning after, Netanyahu said, “I have a personal, long and warm connection with Joe Biden for nearly 40 years, and I know him to be a great friend of the State of Israel.” But he again stopped short of using the term president-elect.

At a press conference on Monday, Netanyahu would only say that Biden is “supposed to be appointed the next president.” Asked who won the US election by Galei Israel Radio on Tuesday, Netanyahu said: “Why do I have to express an opinion? They have their processes, their Electoral College.” “I will cooperate with the US administration, but stand up for our security,” he later said.

Iranian refining and downstream industries flourishing despite sanctions

Persian Gulf Star Refinery (PGSR) located in Iran’s southern province of Hormozgan is the first of its kind. It is based on gas condensate feedstock received from the South Pars gas field which Iran shares with Qatar in the Persian Gulf. As the largest processing facility for gas condensate in West Asia, PGSR has made Iran an exporter of gasoline.

This refinery has increased Iran’s gasoline production to 110 million liters per day, while the country’s consumption is 74 million liters. PGSR has not only made Iran self sufficient in gasoline production, but enabled it to export surplus output. The products exported by the refinery during the first half of the current Iranian calendar year were 120 percent higher than the products exported during the same period last year.

Pars Oil and Gas Company (POGC), responsible for developing South Pars gas field, delivered about 60 million barrels of gas condensate to PGSR during the first half of the current year. PGSR receives 375,000 barrels of condensate daily from South Pars gas field as the feedstock.

Historically, Iran has remained a net importer of gasoline in recent decades and restriction on sale of gasoline was used as one of the tools to pressurize the country. Those sanctions were lifted with the implementation of JCPOA (Iran’s nuclear deal with the world powers, known as Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), concerns about their return led to construction of PGSR to be pursued more rapidly and in different phases. In January 2019, when the third phase of the refinery was inaugurated, Iran was able not only to eliminate the need to import gasoline but also to export surplus gasoline and bring more income to the country.

 According to Secretary General of Iran’s Oil Refining Industry Companies Association (ORICA) the country’s oil refining capacity has increased to two million barrels per day. The activities of the refineries, in addition to meeting the domestic need, have led to the export of surplus products, which plays a significant role in combating the sanctions.

The Secretary General of ORICA went on to say that in addition to the main products, 32 other special products are produced in the refineries, which are allocated on priority to domestic petrochemical industries.

He highlighted the role of refineries as 32,000 people are directly employed in this sector and now all refineries are run by domestic experts and not a single foreign engineer is employed in this industry.

In the recent past, the quality of domestically produced fuel was not comparable to international standards, but over the last four years the quality of local gasoline has improved so much that ordinary gasoline has replaced super gasoline. It is also worth noting that the country's refineries are operating at optimum capacity utilization.

Lately, Iran’s Karoon Petrochemical Company (KPC) has unveiled two new products that are going to save the country US$27 million. The production lines of two new grades of MTDI and KMT-10 were officially launched with the aim of meeting the needs of downstream sectors and completing the value chain of the country’s petrochemical sector.

KMT-10 is produced by pre-polymerization of methyl phenyl isocyanate and by the formation of urethane groups. With the production of this new product, the petrochemical industry will practically eliminate the need to import similar grades which have been previously imported from China, Japan, South Korea, and Germany. This strategic product has wide applications in the automotive, office, and home appliances industries.

MTDI products include Aradur 830 CH, Aradur 850 CH, and Aradur 2963 CH. Karoon Petrochemical Company has introduced this product in order to meet the needs of downstream producers of paint, resin, and polyurethane and in order to complete the value chain of petrochemical products.

The petrochemical industry is playing a crucial role in Iran's non-oil economy, the second-largest foreign exchange earner after crude oil. Petrochemical exports already make up nearly 33 percent of the country’s non-oil exports.

Head of Iran’s National Petrochemical Company (NPC) Behzad Mohammadi said the country’s petrochemical products basket would be further diversified. The official noted that major development plans were underway for diversifying the country’s petrochemical output considering the wide range of feedstock available.

Does Netanyahu consider Biden victory a blow to his plans?

Reportedly, till Thursday evening, Israel’s Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu has not called President-elect of the United States, Joe Biden. This is despite Biden having been announced the winner and receiving phone calls from the leaders of France, Germany, Canada, the United Kingdom and Ireland.

It may sound a bit odd that the leader of Israel – the country that claims to have an intimate and unparalleled special relationship with the United States – did not make that call. Some experts term this a fear. Not a fear that the call with Biden will not go well, but rather concern over the retribution Netanyahu could face from Trump, who still has some days left in office.

With Netanyahu likely on the verge of another election of his own in the coming weeks, the last thing he needs is to upset Trump. If the president can fire his secretary of defense on Twitter – “Mark Esper has been terminated” – imagine what he can write about an Israeli politician whom he feels is no longer loyal.

Netanyahu had waited 12 hours on Saturday night before tweeting congratulations to Biden, and when he finally did, refrained from calling him “president-elect” even though that was exactly what he called Trump in a similar tweet he put out four years ago.

This is all understandable, Netanyahu genuinely wanted to see Trump win the election, and Biden’s victory came as a blow to his plans. It takes time to readjust. In addition, there are more than two months left to Trump’s term, and there are issues that still need to be managed, like Iran, an urgent challenge underscored by the visit to Israel this week of Elliott Abrams, the administration’s point man on the Islamic Republic.

At some point, Netanyahu will have to hold that conversation with Biden, and will need to begin to acknowledge that the administration is changing. It will be complicated. Not because Biden is not pro-Israel – his track record over five decades in government proves he is – but rather because Israelis have forgotten what a non-Trump president looks like.

Whether it was Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan, George H.W. Bush, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush or Barack Obama, every president opposed settlement activity and actively pushed for a two-state solution. Some focused on it more, others less. Bush, a republican like Trump, is remembered as a great friend of Israel, even in right-wing circles. Did these people forget the Annapolis Conference, the Roadmap for peace, the letters he sent Ariel Sharon making a distinction between settlement blocs and the rest of the settlements?

The point is that opposition to settlements has always been US policy. The change came with Trump, the most unconventional of presidents, who took an alternative position on a complicated conflict. He was the anomaly, not the new normal.

The problem is that Netanyahu is unable to accept new reality. He got used to the breaking down of norms and the shattering of traditionally accepted policies. He believed that Trump and Trumpism were here to stay. He should have prepared himself and the people that at some point it would end, and the Israeli-US dynamic would go back to the way it was beforehand. This is why in Israel there seems to be actual grieving over news that Trump has lost the election. People are in denial.

Another catalyst for this change is that the settler camp of 2020 is politically stronger than it was in 2008 or 2012. Netanyahu, whose political future is uncertain, needs their votes more than ever before, which means that he will have to stand strong against attempts to undermine the legitimacy of settlements or stop their construction.

What makes this even more complicated is that Israel appears on the verge of an election. This is due to Netanyahu’s continued refusal to pass a state budget for 2021, even though that is what the country so desperately needs.

Netanyahu will have to decide: does he prefer a new election while a new administration is taking office in Washington, or does he give in to Gantz, pass a budget, lose his opportunity in March to withdraw from the rotation agreement, and leave his fate up to the judicial system?