Does Netanyahu consider Biden victory a blow to his plans?

Reportedly, till Thursday evening, Israel’s Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu has not called President-elect of the United States, Joe Biden. This is despite Biden having been announced the winner and receiving phone calls from the leaders of France, Germany, Canada, the United Kingdom and Ireland.

It may sound a bit odd that the leader of Israel – the country that claims to have an intimate and unparalleled special relationship with the United States – did not make that call. Some experts term this a fear. Not a fear that the call with Biden will not go well, but rather concern over the retribution Netanyahu could face from Trump, who still has some days left in office.

With Netanyahu likely on the verge of another election of his own in the coming weeks, the last thing he needs is to upset Trump. If the president can fire his secretary of defense on Twitter – “Mark Esper has been terminated” – imagine what he can write about an Israeli politician whom he feels is no longer loyal.

Netanyahu had waited 12 hours on Saturday night before tweeting congratulations to Biden, and when he finally did, refrained from calling him “president-elect” even though that was exactly what he called Trump in a similar tweet he put out four years ago.

This is all understandable, Netanyahu genuinely wanted to see Trump win the election, and Biden’s victory came as a blow to his plans. It takes time to readjust. In addition, there are more than two months left to Trump’s term, and there are issues that still need to be managed, like Iran, an urgent challenge underscored by the visit to Israel this week of Elliott Abrams, the administration’s point man on the Islamic Republic.

At some point, Netanyahu will have to hold that conversation with Biden, and will need to begin to acknowledge that the administration is changing. It will be complicated. Not because Biden is not pro-Israel – his track record over five decades in government proves he is – but rather because Israelis have forgotten what a non-Trump president looks like.

Whether it was Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan, George H.W. Bush, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush or Barack Obama, every president opposed settlement activity and actively pushed for a two-state solution. Some focused on it more, others less. Bush, a republican like Trump, is remembered as a great friend of Israel, even in right-wing circles. Did these people forget the Annapolis Conference, the Roadmap for peace, the letters he sent Ariel Sharon making a distinction between settlement blocs and the rest of the settlements?

The point is that opposition to settlements has always been US policy. The change came with Trump, the most unconventional of presidents, who took an alternative position on a complicated conflict. He was the anomaly, not the new normal.

The problem is that Netanyahu is unable to accept new reality. He got used to the breaking down of norms and the shattering of traditionally accepted policies. He believed that Trump and Trumpism were here to stay. He should have prepared himself and the people that at some point it would end, and the Israeli-US dynamic would go back to the way it was beforehand. This is why in Israel there seems to be actual grieving over news that Trump has lost the election. People are in denial.

Another catalyst for this change is that the settler camp of 2020 is politically stronger than it was in 2008 or 2012. Netanyahu, whose political future is uncertain, needs their votes more than ever before, which means that he will have to stand strong against attempts to undermine the legitimacy of settlements or stop their construction.

What makes this even more complicated is that Israel appears on the verge of an election. This is due to Netanyahu’s continued refusal to pass a state budget for 2021, even though that is what the country so desperately needs.

Netanyahu will have to decide: does he prefer a new election while a new administration is taking office in Washington, or does he give in to Gantz, pass a budget, lose his opportunity in March to withdraw from the rotation agreement, and leave his fate up to the judicial system?

Donald Trump did a lot for Israel; can Joe Biden do the same?

US President-elect, Joe Biden had brandished his pro-Israel credentials at a Christmas party in December 1981 that he and his wife, threw in their Delaware, home for members of the Delaware press corps.

Biden was no strangers, he has been interviewed many times that year, including after Israel’s surprise attack on Iraq’s Osirak nuclear reactor. Biden, a member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, was disturbed that Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin acted without giving the US advance warning.

That evening Biden proclaimed: “I’m Israel’s best Catholic friend.” After he has been elected America’s 46th president many Israelis believe it is his turn to prove this with deeds, not just words. He has a tough act to follow. In Jerusalem, there is anxiety that Biden administration will be indistinguishable from what a third term for President Barack Obama would have resembled. 

While most American Jews voted for Obama, he had a fragile relationship with the pro-Israel community. His Iran nuclear deal alarmed Israelis, who are unified view that Iran poses an existential threat to Israel. Obama outraged right-wing Israelis with the cold shoulder he turned to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and exerted heavy pressure on Israel to make sacrifices for peace with the Palestinians. Biden’s campaign trail announcements have aroused similar anxieties, with plans to reenter the Iran deal and prioritize Israeli-Palestinian peace, which no US President has been able to broker because neither side seems to want it. 

Israelis are enthused over the recent diplomatic breakthroughs with the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Sudan. They were hoping Saudi Arabia would be the next domino to topple, but that’s looking remote, especially if Biden chooses to soothe tensions with Iran and reassess the US-Saudi relationship. If Biden tries to roll back the process not accepting Trump’s “deal of the century,” this may deter other Arab nations from reaching agreements with Israel, hindering hopes for a broader, regional peace.  

Israelis believe that Biden and Obama are two different people. The chemistry that two leaders form or fail to form is a critical element in how relations between two nations will progress. Biden is not the slightest bit aloof or professorial, as Obama was often accused of being. He’s earned the moniker of “Uncle Joe.” The chatty style we saw from him in debates and on the campaign trail — including his gaffes — is vintage Joe Biden. 

Netanyahu doesn’t need an introduction to the president-elect. The Israeli leader opened a recent Cabinet meeting in Jerusalem by noting his “long and warm personal connection with Joe Biden for nearly 40 years … as a great friend of the State of Israel.”

Obama and Netanyahu had never developed such chemistry, one is not really sure Netanyahu had that with Trump, either. Netanyahu has a lot of boastfulness, but always appeared off-balance in Trump’s presence. Netanyahu may prefer Trump’s peace plan, but Netanyahu’s cautious nature stood in sharp contrast with Trump’s unpredictable streak. Netanyahu has more years ahead of him politically than Biden does. There were rumous during the campaign that Biden would be only a one-term president, or that health issues might force him to step down sooner. His debate performance put many of those rumors to rest, but Netanyahu, as he approaches his 12th consecutive year as prime minister, has never stood on shakier ground. 

Netanyahu’s trial in a Jerusalem District Court on breach of trust and fraud charges will be in full swing just as Biden takes the oath of office in January and will be a major distraction. Even before the next calendar year starts, the Knesset faces a 23rd December deadline to pass a budget. Failure to do so means new elections. Recent polls show the right-wing Yamina party led by Naftali Bennett gaining popularity means Israel’s next government could swing sharply to the right, obstructing any plans that Biden has to prioritize the Israeli-Palestinian track.

During his long US Senate career, and as vice president, Biden has dealt with every Israeli prime minister from Golda Meir to Netanyahu and understands Israel’s security concerns better than any other American leader. Israeli leaders appreciate that about Biden, but at the same time many express strong hope that the Biden administration will not drive in reverse in the Middle East now that the Trump peace process policies have been vindicated. 

 

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Joe Biden to face a tough task in bridging the divides

Shireen Tahmaasb Hunter, a professor of political science at Georgetown University, says Joe Biden will face a “tough task in bridging the divides" in the American society, noting that "economic, cultural, and racial divisions in America have widened." “Republicans have kept the Senate, which would make the task of affecting economic and other changes more difficult,” Hunter tells the Tehran Times.

Following are the excerpts from the interview:

It seems that the November 3 election has turned into a controversial issue. Why does this election call into question whether America can preserve its democracy?

Every time an election is close, as is the case with the 2020 elections, the likelihood of controversy increases. In such an election, every single vote count and a few votes can determine the fate of the preserve its democracy elections. This is why Biden wants all votes counted, and Trump, where he is ahead, wants counting to stop. So far, the Supreme Court has not expressed any judgment on this matter.

How do you read Trump's behavior when he questions the vote-counting process? Is he an exception in America's history?

Trump's personal behavior is certainly an aberration. However, some of his policies, like a desire to put American interests ahead of internationalist goals, prevent America's trading partners from taking advantage of it. His nationalistic discourse is not aberrations and reflects deeper trends.

Regardless of who will win the election, how will the US heal the rifts in which the society has been divided into two opposite groups?

Clearly, in recent years, economic, cultural, and racial divisions in America have widened. However, the perception of such a divide is stronger than its reality. The media generally focuses on the extremists in each camp and ignores the moderates. Nevertheless, Biden faces a tough task in bridging these divides. Republicans have kept the Senate, which would make the task of affecting economic and other changes more difficult. However, it also seems that both parties' extreme wings have realized that they need to make some concessions. Therefore, there might be a chance to reach a middle ground on many issues. Also, Biden is a professional politician with long experience as a senator and would be better able to reach compromises with the Republicans.

Do you agree that the Supreme Court has an outsized role in elections because it has become politicized? Is there any guarantee that the members of the Supreme Court be unbiased?

The president nominates and does not appoint Supreme Court judges. Their appointment requires Senate's approval. As to being political, everything in life, to some degree, is political because people compete for power and privilege. There is no guarantee that judges would vote in a non-partisan spirit. Burt judges, too, must keep their own reputation in mind and contend with public opinion. They cannot vote in ways that go completely against evidence. Such behavior would discredit them.

It seems that the president in the American political structure has vast authority that may tempt him to exploit the power to serve his interests. The president nominates Supreme Court members, which has a key role in the elections in controversial cases. What is your comment?

The president has great constitutional powers. However, many of his/her decisions must be approved by Congress. There is the risk of abuse, but not to the extent of threatening democracy. Many of the comments made in this regard in the media derive from partisan politics. Nevertheless, democracy needs vigilance. Trump's defeat shows that, at least for now, Americans reject any abuse of presidential powers.

Don't you think that the electoral system is threatening democracy in the United States as there have been candidates who have won popular votes but lost in the Electoral College?

The Electoral College was established so that states with smaller populations could also have a role in deciding who should be president. Otherwise, always states like New York, California, Texas, and Florida would determine elections' results. Given demographic and economic disparities among states, the Electoral College is a balancing mechanism. For instance, without the Electoral College, rural areas and small towns would have no say in deciding elections' results. There is a difference between democracy and majority rule.

Israeli analysts raise 10 fears after victory of Joe Biden

Israel emerges as the first country to raise fears after the victory of Joe Biden in the US Presidential Election. Its biggest fear is that the US policy in the Middle East, especially the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and Iran, is likely to undergo a dramatic sea-change, after Joe Biden enters the White House in January 2021.

1. Trump’s "Deal of the Century"

Israel’s biggest fear is that Biden will end any possibility that Trump’s plan to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, known as “Peace to Prosperity” or by its nickname as the “Deal of the Century”. The plan had offered a radical break from past initiatives and allowed Israel to eventually annex up to 30% of the West Bank and promised to recognize Israeli sovereignty over most of east Jerusalem. As part of the plan, Trump had also included the first ever published map of suggested borders for a two-state resolution to the conflict. The plan was unveiled only in January 2020, with an invitation to the Palestinians to negotiate, which they rejected. The Trump administration itself sidelined the initiative this summer in favor of prioritizing Israeli-Arab normalization deals, with the idea that solving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict would come at a later stage. Now Israel fears Biden will not adopt it.

2. West Bank annexation

A Biden victory removes any possibly of unilateral West Bank annexation, even a minor one. Biden will not support it and the Trump administration is unlikely to move on it during the time it has left, because his administration promised to suspend it in exchange for normalization deals with the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. Biden will want any sovereignty moves to wait until a final status agreement is reached with the Palestinians. His map of a two-state solution is unlikely to include all the settlements, and as a result, the fear of future settlement evacuations and a possible settlement freeze now returns to the discourse. The settlers and the Israeli Right had warned that the first 10 months of this year represented an unprecedented window of opportunity to annex the settlements. That window has now closed.

3. Onus on Israel to resolve the conflict with the Palestinians

The former Obama administration had held Israel liable for continuation of the conflict, holding that its continued settlement activity was a stumbling block to peace. The Trump administration flipped that calculation. It placed the onus for the conflict on the Palestinian Authority (PA) for failing to negotiate and for incitement. It held in particular that terrorism was a stumbling block to peace and took the PA to task for its continued support of terrorist activity through the payment to individuals jailed for terror activity and to family members of terrorists. The Trump administration also divorced settlement activity from the peace process either with the Palestinians or with Arab states. The onus will now flip back to Israel to resolve the frozen peace process, with renewed emphasis on the connection between the peace process and settlement building, which will once again become a stumbling block to peace.

4. Settlements will once again be considered illegitimate

Biden is likely to reverse the Trump administration’s dramatic upending of longstanding US policy, which held that Israeli activity over the pre-1967 lines in the West Bank and east Jerusalem was illegitimate. The Trump administration had recognized Israel’s historic and religious rights to that territory. While it never recognized Israeli sovereignty there, it held that such settlement activity was not inconsistent with international law and allowed for the building and expansion of Jewish settlements. To underscore the deep Jewish roots in the territory, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and US Ambassador to Israel David Friedman spoke of that area as Judea and Samaria. Concepts that were eliminated as part of the blanketed US support for all the settlements, such as settlement blocs, isolated settlements and the pre-1967 lines, will all be resurrected.

5. US embassy in Jerusalem

Biden is among the signatories to the US Embassy Act of 1995 that recognized Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and mandated its embassy be relocated from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. The embassy was only moved in 2018, under the Trump administration. During the campaign, Biden said he had no intention of reversing that move. To date, only the US and Guatemala have embassies in Jerusalem. The Trump administration has actively campaigned and enticed a small number of other countries to follow suit. His loss brings an end to that campaign. It is now unlikely that other countries, even ones who have pledged to do so, will move their embassies to Jerusalem.

6. Revival of Palestinian Authority

A Biden win breathes new life into the Palestinian Authority, which had been on the verge of financial collapse. It’s expected the Biden administration would restore ties with the Authority that had been severed during the Trump administration. This would include reopening the PLO mission in Washington and the US Consulate General in Jerusalem that served the Palestinians. Biden is expected to restore much of the financial assistance to both the Palestinians and to the United Nations Relief and Works Agency which services Palestinian refugees, all of which had been cut by the Trump administration. The absence of those funds had created a financial crisis that was compounded by the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as the PA’s decision to protest Trump’s peace initiatives by refusing to accept the tax revenues which Israel has collected on its behalf. It had also cut security ties. News of Biden’s victory allows it to restore security ties with Israel and to receive the tax revenues.

7. Israeli-Palestinian negotiations

A Biden administration would likely be able to revive the frozen Israeli-Palestinian talks by leveraging the shelving of the Trump administration’s peace plan and any possibility of West Bank annexation to entice the PA back to the table. It would be difficult for the PA to refuse Biden, after taking such a harsh step against Trump. PA President Mahmoud Abbas’s age would also be a factor, he is 85 and can’t afford to wait out the Biden administration, like he did the Obama and Trump administrations.

8. Israeli-Arab normalization

Biden supports the Israeli normalization deals with Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates and Sudan and is expected to work to advance them. But he is less likely than Trump to be able to advance new ones, since some of the impetus for the deals was the creation of a regional alliance against Iran. Still, the basic paradigm shift that divorced Israeli-Arab ties from the fate of Israel’s conflict with the Palestinians will remain in place.

9. US Israel bonding

Under a Biden administration the United States still stands with Israel at the United Nations. This show of solidarity has been a main feature of US policy for at least the last three administrations. The Obama and Bush administrations stood with Israel at the UN due to the body’s bias against Israel, even though they philosophically agreed with many of Israel’s opponents. The Trump administration stood with Israel both on the grounds of bias and because it philosophically supported Israel on many of the issues. Biden is more likely to go the way of the Obama and Bush administrations. Biden’s anticipated elimination of the Trump Administration’s paradigm understanding of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict will likely weaken the impact of his administration’s support for Israel at the UN.

10. Iranian deal

Biden victory may reverse the Trump administration’s policy towards Iran and restores it to that of the Obama administration, which had brokered a 2015 deal to curb Tehran’s nuclear program. Trump withdrew the US from that deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, between Iran and the six world powers. It has re-imposed US sanctions on Iran and fought – albeit unsuccessfully – to restore the international ones as well, including the arms embargo. Now Biden may work to rejoin and revive the deal, which still has the support of the other five world powers.

Would Joe Biden victory change Israeli politics?

When Donald Trump won the election in 2016, Benjamin Netanyahu became his favorite and best student. The Israeli prime minister had known Trump for years – he was at the president’s wedding to Melania in 2005 in Palm Beach – and paid close attention. When he started to see how Trump’s tactics were working in the US, he adopted some for himself.

Following his mentor’s lead, Netanyahu perfected the art of right-wing populism. He copied the president’s use of social media, launched a weekly Trump-like webcast to counter alleged fake news, and attacked the police, the attorney-general, the courts, the media and the elites. Everything became fair game, nothing off limits.

Like Trump on race, Netanyahu played up Israel’s ethnicity card, trying to drive a wedge between Ashkenazim and Mizrahim. He surrounded himself with people who never hesitated to wander beyond his circle, and who did Netanyahu’s bidding in the media, the Knesset or the cabinet.

Netanyahu was often the first and most vocal defender of the Supreme Court. In 2012, for example, he spoke about how a “strong and independent justice system is what allows for the existence of all the other institutions in a democracy.” He also refrained from unilateral moves vis a vis the Palestinians. Annexation? That was never an option. Instead, he was always the one urging caution.

But all that changed in 2016, and Trump is partially to thank for it. Netanyahu saw the movement Trump created, and tried to fashion the same thing in Israel. There was one point in 2017 when he even started dying his hair different colors.

Yes, we have a different electoral system (which is far worse for determining the prime minister than what is happening in America), but when it comes to rhetoric and tactics, we have in recent years pretty much duplicated what happened across the Atlantic. That is why it will be interesting to see how Joe Biden election as President wills Israel’s domestic political system.

The first person who will be directly impacted by a Biden presidency is Netanyahu, who is reportedly debating whether to cave to Blue and White’s demands and pass a 2021 budget, or refuse, and take Israel to a new election.

While Biden does not play a direct role in that consideration - another election is more about internal polling and Netanyahu’s bribery trial - a Democratic administration is something to think about.

What then could Netanyahu argue under a Biden presidency? For one thing, he could do to Biden what he did to Barack Obama: portray him as an adversary.

While Biden is a known political commodity and has a strong record among Democrats when it comes to Israel, there will almost definitely be disagreements over issues like the Iran deal, the settlements and the Palestinians, and any one of those could be used to ignite a crisis with a clear political benefit.

That is what he did with Obama, and then used it as part of his election campaign in 2019 that showed Netanyahu flaunting the infamous “lecture” he gave Obama in the Oval Office during a visit there in 2012. The message was simple: only a strong leader like Netanyahu can stand up to a president like Obama.

Could he do that as well with Biden? It’s possible. Right-wing pundits and Netanyahu supporters are already mourning what appears to be the end of the Trump administration. Tzachi Hanegbi, a Likud minister close to Netanyahu, went as far on Thursday as to warn of a possible Israeli war with Iran if Biden becomes president.

Is such a war possible? Who knows? But warning about it now serves one purpose: presenting Biden as a potential danger. And that, in a corrupt way, could be beneficial for Netanyahu’s political survival.

On the other side of all of this is Blue and White leader Benny Gantz, who has issued a public ultimatum that he will not allow this government to continue without a 2021 budget.

Interestingly, a Biden win has the potential to help Gantz. The reason is because Biden, obviously, is the polar opposite of Trump. He is not a populist but a veteran politician whose message is one of unity, compassion and reconciliation, ideas that Gantz has tried to push since entering politics two years ago.

One of the problems was that until now, a significant number of Israelis found it hard to imagine an Israel without Netanyahu – an 18-year-old army recruit has never been conscious of any other prime minster – and all his shtick. It was as if the division that Netanyahu brought with him to the job was a necessary requirement.

Soon enough, Israelis might see a different kind of president in the White House, one who doesn’t attack the police, the courts, the attorney-general and the media. One who speaks about unity, positive change and coming together.

That might radiate back here and give Gantz a boost in a future election. While Gantz’s Blue and White currently polls at only nine seats, he is confident that the party will pull in double that figure in the next election, one that could happen as early as March.

The reason he might be right is because the defense minister rarely attacks Netanyahu right now as part of the coalition, and when he does it is usually with soft shots. A collapse of the government – especially one initiated by his party – would give the former IDF chief of staff the offensive once again.

It would also give him a chance to explain why he joined Netanyahu’s government in April, and why it took him until now to bring it to an end.

If articulated well, he has some good points to make. While it is true that Gantz had promised over three campaigns not to sit with Netanyahu, that was before COVID-19 entered our lives. Once it did and brought with it the economic crisis that has upended nations, Gantz’s calculus changed as well.

What he didn’t fully realize in April was that Netanyahu did not change with him. Gantz’s mistake was thinking that Netanyahu would rise to the occasion. Sadly, he did not, and instead Netanyahu continued to put politics before the pandemic, and to work consistently to undermine his coalition partner.

Privately, Gantz tells party members that he knows there is almost no chance Netanyahu will abide by the rotation agreement that is supposed to see the defense minister become prime minister next November. But he does feel that it is important to provide a chance for a 2021 state budget to pass, since ultimately that is what the Israeli people need: financial stability and a government that works for them.

Expect a decision on this in the coming two weeks, but also expect a Biden win to give Gantz a feeling that a politician like him can succeed. Israelis will see that someone who comes across as decent, moral and honest can be president of the largest superpower in the world. Hopefully, Gantz will think, they can believe the same about their own country.

In a year like 2020 though, it has been learnt that anything is possible. But one thing is for sure that Trump and his style of politics is not going away so quickly. If there were people who thought that Trump’s election in 2016 was a “mistake” or a “malfunction,” that was proven wrong on Tuesday when he collected close to five million more votes than in 2016.

America is split. It is split geographically and it is split even within those battleground states – Michigan, Wisconsin and more. Traditionally, a president does not speak out publicly about policy, politics or party when he steps down. That was the case with Bill Clinton, with George W. Bush, and until recently, also with Obama. This could be tricky for Israel, which will need to navigate between making inroads with a Biden administration and the Democratic Party, but also at not upsetting an influential former president.

“Electoral College Undemocratic”, says Robert Smith, a US professor

"The electoral college, which is partly rooted in slavery, is a thoroughly undemocratic institution and makes a mockery of democracy in America," declares Robert Smith, a professor of political science at San Francisco State University, while talking to Tehran Times. 

Americans voted on Tuesday for the presidential election. The incumbent president, Donald Trump from the Republican Party, faced Democratic rival vice president Joe Biden. It seems that the elections would not run smoothly this time given the potential threat to the smooth running of the vote. 

Some Americans believe that antiquated and outdated constitutional institutions like the Electoral College can undermine the voices of ordinary people. In the 2016 presidential election, Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton garnered more national votes; however, she lost to Trump due to Electoral College. Professor Smith believes that such an electoral system should have been abolished before. 

"It should have been long ago abolished, but it takes an amendment to the Constitution which makes it virtually impossible to abolish, given the supermajorities required in Congress and the states," Smith said, adding, "It may, along with the unrepresentative Senate, pose a major threat to the legitimacy of the democracy and a system crisis in America."

Asked about some factors that call into question whether America is a democracy, the San Francisco State University professor notes that the election does not call into question democracy in America, "but the issues of voter suppression, Trump's unwillingness to say he will accept the outcome of the election if he loses, his unwillingness to assure a peaceful transfer of power, the possibility the outcome will not be known on election night, the prospect of Supreme Court intervention all make this an unusual, controversial and messy election, but the American-such as it is- is not in question."

Describing the Supreme Court lawyers as "politicians in robes," Smith argues that the court has a role in US elections inconsistent with democratic principles, and more so than the historical normal, is highly partisan.

Some restrictions were put on voters in Texas, a move which got some experts to say that battle playing across America is, in some ways, a continuation of a centuries-long fight over access to the franchise.

Last month, Texas's governor, Greg Abbott, a Republican, abruptly issued an order that limited each county in the state to offer one ballot drop box. 

In this regard, the American academic believes that "what happens in Texas and elsewhere in the nation is part of a long, sordid history of vote denial and suppression in the US, which has become increasingly blatant in recent elections."

Overall, it seems that the Tuesday election did not proceed as was predicted, and no one knows what will happen. 

However, Smith emphasizes that "the polls are generally accurate and trustworthy; they accurately predicted the popular vote outcome in 2016."

Underneath it all, many see a Machiavellian approach by the ruling party. It wants to preserve power by making it harder for certain groups like minorities, young people, and the poor to vote.

Investors not likely to pay attention to FOMC and BoE announcements

The 2020 US Presidential Election hangs in the balance with an outcome that is too close to call. No winner has been declared at the time of publication and it could be days before the new President is announced. Trump’s campaign has already requested a re-count of ballots in Wisconsin and the same could be asked for other states.

An uncertain election outcome with a split government was worse case scenario for Wednesday but instead of crashing lower, stocks rallied hard with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up more than 700 points at one stage.  While this rally may seem counterintuitive, the two most likely outcomes are positive for the markets.

With a split government, even if Biden wins, sweeping policy changes like tax increases or more regulation are unlikely.  If Trump wins, investors can expect more business friendly policies.  The markets also liked the decision by Illinois voters to reject the fair tax amendment that would have introduced gradually higher taxes for those making over US$250,000 instead of their flat 4.95% tax regardless of income level. In California, voters rejected the push to provide benefits to drivers for food delivery and ride hail companies like Uber, Lyft and DoorDash. All of these decisions are good for corporate America and equities.  

Yet currencies did not follow equities higher. Most of the major currency pairs including EUR/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF and USD/CAD were unchanged on Wednesday. GBP/USD fell ahead of Thursday’s Bank of England Quarterly Inflation report and monetary policy announcement but AUD/USD and NZD/USD extended recent gains. 

The greenback is mixed as investors wait for the final tallies which may not be delivered until Friday. Counting in Pennsylvania is expected to go on until Friday and the secretary of the state of Michigan also said it could take until the end of the week for a winner to be declared.

Complicating matters further, Trump filed a lawsuit to halt ballot counting in Michigan. Typically currencies take their cue from Treasuries but USD failed to follow ten year Treasury yields, which are down more than 10%. 

The US Fed and the Bank of England have monetary policy announcements tomorrow and the question is will they even matter? The latest US economic reports haven’t been terrible. Manufacturing activity is up; service sector activity is flat but not contracting. Equities are holding steady and the latest decline in yields makes lending conditions easier. All of this gives the central bank little reason to act, especially with investors focused more on the election than stimulus. They’ve made it clear that interest rates will remain on hold for the next few years and that’s the message they’ll reinforce at Thursday’s meeting. 

The Bank of England on the other hand is widely expected to ease monetary policy. PMIs were revised lower today, underscoring the overall weakness of the economy. Very little progress has been made on Brexit talks and as the clock ticks towards next week’s soft deadline, the probability of a no deal Brexit is high.

The central bank also meets on the same day the country enters its four week long lockdown. The closure of pubs, restaurants, gyms and non-essential shops will have a severe impact on an economy that was already sputtering.  The central bank will not only lower its economic projections but will be taking steps tomorrow to avoid a double dip recession. More asset purchases are likely but the market wants to know if negative interest rates are next.