OGDC discovers hydrocarbons reserves in Sindh

 Pakistan’s largest oil and gas exploration company, Oil and Gas Development Company (OGDC) has discovered hydrocarbons reserves in Sindh’s Ghotki and Khairpur districts. This has been stated in a communique sent to Pakistan Stock Exchange on Thursday.

According to the details the three discoveries – at Gundanwari-01, Mithri-01 and Khamiso-01 wells – would cumulatively add up to 29mmcfd gas and 15 barrels per day (bpd) of oil. It would increase OGDC’s earning by Rs0.40/share.

At Khamiso-01 in Ghotki, a joint venture of Guddu Block – comprising of stakes as OGDC as operator (70%, SEPL (13.5%), IPRTOC (11.5%) and GHPL (5%).

The structure of Khamiso-01 was drilled and tested by OGDC’s in-house expertise. The well was drilled down to the depth of 753 meters, which tested 2.95mmcfd of gas through 32/64-inch choke at wellhead flowing pressure of 505 PSI from Pirkoh Limestone formations.

At Gundanwari-01 in Khairpur district, where OGDC is an operator with 95% stake and Government Holdings (Pvt) Limited has remaining 5%, the well structure was delineated, drilled and tested. The well was drilled down to the depth of 3750 meters. It tested 19.40mmcfd of gas and 15bpd of Condensate through 32.64-inch choke at wellhead flowing pressure 3300 PSI from Lower Goru (Massive Sand) Formation.

Next US President: Hillary or Trump

The fast changing poll results are creating more confusion, rather than providing a credible forecast about the outcome of US presidential elections being held on 8^th November 2016. Around the world Muslims and particularly Pakistanis are anxiously awaiting the official announcement. I posted a blog on Wednesday exploring the possible implication of the outcome on Pak-US relationship. The bottom line was that whoever wins the election ‘status quo’ will remain, meaning the relationship will get good if Pakistan’s services are needed or will get bad if the US focus shifts to other regions.

Some of the readers of my blogs asked a funny question, who will win the election? I wondered if they believe I have a crystal ball or I am a fortune teller. Despite knowing my inadequacies I sat down to explore the probability. Born in a third world country, having witnessed domestic, South Asia and MENA geopolitics for nearly half a century I have also started believing in conspiracy theories. Based on my observations, I tend to say that Hillary Clinton could be the next US president. The reasons are following:

The US ruling junta has created a history by electing a black and half Muslim President. This time they will create another history by electing a woman as US president.

It is often said that in third world elections are engineered. I tend to say that the elections are also engineered in the US and the active players are part of electoral system. This time the female members of the system will play a decisive role. I say this because often the female members have not played a key role, some reports say they prefer to abstain from casting their vote.

A closer look at the outcome also indicates that the elected president should be from Republican. However, it the ruling elite are adamant at making Hillary the next president, they will not hesitate in violating this norm. If they want to continue proxy wars, maintain US hegemony in South Asia and MENA and even South China Sea they have to elect Hillary who is known as ‘queen of status quo’.

   

Pak-US relation after the election

Elites as well as commoners of Pakistan while passing time in their drawing room talks often indulge in discussions on a variety of topics. These range from civil-army relations to Pak-India border situation to proxy wars going on in the neighborhood. However, lately the talks also drift to the outcome of US elections and US-Pakistan relations in the aftermath. The diversity of discussion depends on the knowledge of the participants about the facets of the US foreign policy.

The commoners often have the consensus that historically the successive governments in Pakistan have been towing the US foreign policy agenda since independence. They also say that Pakistan’s foreign policy has mostly remained under the shadow of US foreign policy. However, there have been good and bad patches, good during the time US needs Pakistan and bad when the US focus shifts away from the region where Pakistan is located.

During cold-war era as well as Afghan war, Pakistan was often termed key partner in war against terror, but mantra of many US senators and congressmen remains ‘do more’. Pakistan has played a contradictory role in Afghanistan, a friend as well as a foe. Pakistan with the help of Taliban fought against Russian troops but post 9/11 it was asked to fight the same Taliban.

The US is often termed the biggest democracy of the world, which also take active part in ‘regime change’ programs around the world to dislodge ‘dictators’. However, it is worth noting that the US has supported three dictatorial regimes in Pakistan, spread over nearly thirty years. Supporting these regimes was need of the super power, as it believes that negotiating with a dictator is easier as compared to an elected/democratic government, which is accountable to the masses.

This is not unique, the US has been installing, supporting and even prolonging and dislodging dictators’ rule in many countries in the name of ‘regime change’. Surprisingly, the biggest democracy of the world does all this but its citizens and/or elected representative, in one way or the other, endorse acts of ruling junta. One may say that the deception prevails over only because of the much talked about liberal media that is not free in real sense.  

Pakistan Stock Exchange witnesses 28 percent decline in trading volume

Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) continued its bearish momentum during the week ended 28th October 2016. The sentiments were driven by rising political uncertainty over 2nd November PTI protest and lower international oil prices. The benchmark Index slipped below 40,000 mark and close at 39,873, down by 3.44%WoW. The average daily trading volumes for the week declined to 341.2 million shares, down by 27.7%WoW.

The key news flow during the week included: 1) China's Baosteel Group expressed its interest in acquiring PSM, 2) GoP expressed intentions to disallow dedicated gas supply from new discoveries to 4 fertilizer plants, including EFERT during the upcoming winter season, 3) Sindh High Court allowed benefit of SRO 1125/2011 to spinning mills at the rate of zero percent on the import of raw cotton, 4) GoP raised Rs90.2 billion though Treasury Bills auction, where cut off yield for the 3-months were raised while yields on 6 and 12 month Bills remained stable and 5) IMF Chief Christine Lagarde during her visit praised Pakistan for emerging from an economic crisis to a stabilizing economy.

Volume leaders for the week were BOP, KEL, TRG, PACE and PIAA. While gainers were: MLCF, FCCL, PIOC and ICI, laggards included: SHEL, ASTL, LOTCHEM and PSMC. Foreigners emerged net buyers with net inflow amounting to US$14.1 million as compared to net outflow of US$8.46 million a week ago. With result season nearing its end, analysts expect market sentiments to be driven by political developments ahead of PTI protest. Furthermore, escalation in cross border tension and domestic security concerns can add further pressure. However, textile sector may come into limelight upon expected announcement of the export package worth Rs75 billion by the GoP. On the global front, OPEC countries are scheduled to meet in November to discuss details over output freeze/cut. The outcome can impact oil prices and performance of companies listed at PSX accordingly.

Recent developments with regards to upgraded fuel quality, volumetric sales dynamics and long term competitive dynamics were discussed at PSO's 1QFY17 analyst briefing session. To recall, the OMC posted earnings of Rs4.38 billion (EPS: Rs16.11) for the quarter, where growth of 35%YoY was led by inventory gains of Rs1.0 billion (R3.68/share) as compared to a small loss in the comparable period last year. Overall, PSO: 1) lost market share (56.5% currently) due to losing out on white oil segment growth, 2) benefitied from higher margins (HSD and Mogas), lower Mogas cost of supply, 3) provisioning for receivables from PIA of Rs300 million (on gross receivable of Rs15 billion) and, 4) absence of late payment income from IPPs where power sector receivables of Rs162 billion remain unresolved. Having the footprint PSO does, it cannot take part in inventory curtailment or limit supply, but has to follow a strict system of procurement.

FATIMA has posted unconsolidated profit after tax of Rs3.9 billion (EPS: Rs1.62) for 3QCY16 as compared to net profit of Rs612 million (EPS: Rs0.29) for 3QCY15. Key highlight of the result includes: 1) strong growth in topline to Rs10.13 billion caused by increase in Urea, CAN and NP offtake, post subsidy in budget FY17, 2) decline in gross margin due to weak domestic Urea/CAN/NP prices and 3) dealer discounts to clear out high inventory levels. On a cumulative basis, 9MCY16 earnings declined to Rs6.37 billion (EPS: Rs3.03) compared to Rs7.45 billion (EPS: Rs3.55) for 9MCY15, down 15%YoY on account of unprecedented adverse market conditions caused by weak farm economics and delayed implementation of subsidy on urea by the GoP.

LUCK announced its 1QFY16 results posting profit after tax of Rs3.24 billion (EPS: Rs10.01) as compared to Rs2.97 billion (EPS: Rs9.18) for 1QFY16. The reported earnings were higher than expected of owing to: 1) higher than expected topline resulting from 0.145 million tons clinker sales during the period and 2) improvement in gross margin due to cheaper coal inventories. Result Highlights included: 1) topline growth due to higher dispatched, 2) improvement in gross margin, 3) addition of 5MW WHR, 4) substitution of exports by domestic sales, 5) reduction in distribution cost owing to decline in export dispatches, 6) other income rising jumped due to interest income on higher cash balances, and 7) effective tax rate of 30%.

Commercial banks in Pakistan post good results

National Bank of Pakistan has posted consolidated profit after tax of Rs13.6 billion (EPS: Rs6.40) for Jan-Sep 2016 period (9MCY16) as compared to net profit of Rs12.3 billion (EPS: Rs5.78) for 9MCY15, up 11%YoY. Sequentially, there was 41%QoQ decline in earnings on the back of 28%QoQ/20%QoQ drop in Net Interest Income/Non-funded income despite lower taxation expense (down 52%QoQ) and higher gains utilization (+53%QoQ). Key 9MCY16 result highlights included: 1) a 3%YoY increase in NII that was down by a substantial 28%QoQ as lower interest rates squeezed margins, 2) provisions were down 78%YoY/16%QoQ reflecting continued asset quality improvement, 3) a 17%YoY/20%QoQ drop in non-interest income on the back of lower capital gains (down 37%YoY) and 4) a manageable 6%YoY increase in expenses. While asset quality continues to improve, the decline in income streams, both interest and non-interest, is surprising.

United Bank has released its Jan-Sep 2016 financial results. Bank's 9MCY16/3QCY16 earnings were up 9%YoY/4%YoY. While capital gains were judiciously utilized to smoothen earnings, the flashpoint, was the improvement in credit quality with provisions going down by 52%YoY and coverage crossing 90% in 9MCY16. Recoveries, both internationally and domestically have remained strong with the bank marking reversals in the last two quarters consecutively. That said, risks in the form of growth deceleration in non-funded income (31% of total income in 9MCY16), particularly in the bank's fee income franchise have emerged, prolonging of which can impact revenues. Of particular importance is the slowdown in commission from worker's remittances (down 40%YoY) on account of weakening Middle Eastern economies. However with oil prices stabilizing now, analysts expect the impact is likely to have played out. Having gained 30% in the last 6months.

Bank of Alfalah has posted profit after tax of Rs6.3 billion (EPS: Rs3.93) for 9MCY16 as compared to net profit of Rs6.0 billion (EPS: Rs3.79) for 9MCY15, up 4%YoY. Sequentially, analysis witnessed 1%QoQ jump in earnings where a 27% QoQ decline in non-funded income restricted earnings to Rs1.9 billion (EPS: R1.2), despite reversals worth Rs78 million and lower taxation expense. Key 9MCY16 result highlights included: 1) a 2%YoY increase in NII however was down 7%QoQ as lower interest rates squeezed margins, 2) provisions were down 75%YoY with reversals worth Rs78 million booked in 3QCY16, 3) non-interest income went down by 27% QoQ on the back of 29%QoQ decline in fee income and capital gains and 4) a manageable 7%YoY increase in expenses.

Faysal Bank has posted a net profit of Rs3.7 billion for Jan-Sep 2016 period, which is 11.4% higher. Markup income for the period under review decreased 20% in the wake of low interest rates. As a result, post-provision net interest income slipped to Rs8.6 billion, down 8.4% from a year ago. Non-interest income of the bank increased 23.8% YoY to Rs5.6 billion. The notable increase in non-interest income was on the back of rising gains on the sale of securities.

Engro Fertilizers outperforms peers

Quarterly results of fertilizer manufacturers were keenly awaited by the investors. My previous post hinted towards the possible decline in earnings of the companies due to: 1) reduction in international prices of urea and 2) slower offtake. Today, review of the accounts of three companies are presented. Only one company, Engro Fertilizer has posted above expectations results, while Fauji twins have posted below expected results. Results of Fatima and Dawood are still awaited.  

Engro Fertilizers (EFERT) has posted unconsolidated profit after tax of Rs2.86 billion (EPS: Rs2.15) for July-September 2016 period as compared to net profit of Rs2.79 billion (EPS: Rs2.10) for the corresponding period of last year, an increase of 3%YoY. The recovery in earning has come from, 1) strong growth in topline to Rs20.76 billion (including subsidy) caused by likely 39%YoY increase in Urea offtake to 502,000 tons post subsidy in budget FY17 and 2) 31%YoY decrease in finance cost on account of swift deleveraging and low interest rate environment. The result also accompanies an unexpected cash dividend of Rs2.50/share, taking 9MCY16 cumulative dividend payout to Rs4.50/share. On a cumulative basis, 9MCY16 earnings slipped to Rs5.66 billion (EPS: Rs4.25) compared to Rs9.91 billion (EPS: Rs7.44) for 9MCY15, down 43%YoY on account of unprecedented adverse market conditions caused by weak farm economics (urea offtake down 16%YoY in 8MCY16) and delayed implementation of subsidy on urea by the GoP.

Fauji Fertilizer Company (FFC) has posted unconsolidated profit after tax of Rs2.61 billion (EPS: Rs2.05) for July-September 2016 quarter as compared to a net profit of PkR3.69 billion (EPS: PkR2.90) for the corresponding period last year, a decrease of 29%YoY. The decline in earnings was expected on the back of: 1) gross margins declining to 32% (includes subsidy) on account of reduction in Urea prices (down 9%YoY) due to depressed farm economics and low international prices, down 36%YoY to an average US$184/ton during 3QCY16 and 2) a 83%YoY decline in other income (excluding subsidy) in the absence of dividend from associated companies (AKBL, FFBL and FCCL) and reduction in return on term deposits. However, the result was also accompanied by a cash dividend of R1.75/share, taking 9MCY16 cumulative dividend payout to Rs5.15/share. On a cumulative basis, 9MCY16 earnings declined to Rs7.51 billion (EPS: Rs5.90) as compared to Rs11.96 billion (EPS: Rs9.40) for 9MCY15, down 37%YoY on account of unprecedented adverse market conditions caused by weak farm economics, urea offtake down 16%YoY during 8MCY16 due to delayed implementation of subsidy on urea by the GoP.

Fauji Fertilizer Bin Qasim (FFBL) has posted unconsolidated net loss of Rs1.05 billion (LPS: Rs1.13) for 9MCY16 as against net profit of Rs939 million (EPS: Rs1.01) for 9MCY15. This significant downturn in earning resulted from, 1)gross margin declining to 14% (including subsidy) on account of significant reduction in DAP prices, down 15%YoY due to depressed international price trends. Price came down 24%YoY to an average US$325/ton during 9MCY16 and increased feed and fuel gas prices in 1QCY16  and 2) a 38%YoY lower other income (excluding subsidy of Rs3.18 billion on DAP and Urea in the absence of dividend from associated companies and reduction in term deposit placements. Following the trend 3QCY16 the Company posted net loss of Rs159 million (LPS: Rs0.17) for 3QCY16 as against net profit of Rs181 million (EPS: Rs0.19) for 3QCY15. However, on sequential basis, 3QCY16 earnings improved slightly against net loss of Rs381 million (LPS: Rs0.41) 2QCY16 on the back of likely increase in DAP/Urea offtake to post subsidy announcement in Federal Budget FY17.

Warehouse Receipt Financing Becoming Reality in Pakistan

State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) announced Draft Rules of Ware House Financing and solicited comments from different stakeholders about two years ago. Many experts, even at that time, had pointed out that this plan could not be achieved in the absence of: 1) modern warehouses and 2) collateral management companies.

Initial probe disclosed that SBP released the draft Rules and also solicited comments from different stakeholders about two years ago. Now Securities & Exchange Commission (SECP) has been assigned this mandate and very shortly the Commission would announce the duly approved rules.

In the meantime SECP assigned the mandate to Pakistan Mercantile Exchange Limited (PMEX) to bring trading of red chilli to its technology driven platform in 2015. The Exchange with the support of other value chain partners undertook a pilot project and succeeded in trading of around 600 tons of red chilli at its platform.

The value chain partners are: 1) Pakistan Agriculture Coalitions, 2) Agility Pakistan and 3) SGS Pakistan. Pakistan Agriculture Coalitions assumed the responsible for providing on-farm technical advice to farmers, Agility took the responsibility to offer warehousing and logistic facilities and SGS agreed to provide quality certification.

The collective efforts yielded encouraging results. Sind Enterprise Development Fund (SEDF), a fund created by Sindh Government, also joined the endeavor and announced to pay the subsidy to free the growers of red chilli from payment of trading fee. The Fund has agreed to pay subsidy up to 6,000 tons of red chilli to be traded at PMEX this season.

This initiative is aimed at encouraging the growers to sell their produce in a transparent manner.  The added advantages are that growers will come to know about the quality of produce even before it is offered for sale at PMEX platform and also get prompt payment. Buyers will be able to procure certified quality of red chilli.

The Fund has also agreed to bear part of financing cost to be paid by farmers to the financial institutions. Under this plan farmers will have to deposit their produce at PMEX designated warehouse after getting quality certificate. The financial institutions agreeing to extend credit disburse funds against the warehouse receipts.

Though, this may look a small beginning but one should not forget that Pakistan produces over 150,000 tons of red chilli and bringing its trading at PMEX will be the game changer. The other agricultural produce that are mostly likely to be traded at PMEX are: wheat, rice and maize.

The collective annual output of these commodities is over 35 million tons. The successful implementation of the proposed plan can drastically change the agriculture landscape of Pakistan and realize its ultimate objective of achieving food security.