China investing in Pakistan in infrastructure projects

In November 2014 Pakistan and China signed 19 agreements and Memorandum of Understandings (MoUs) to further boost the bilateral ties between the two countries in various fields, including energy and basic infrastructure sectors. Earlier a meeting between Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and his Chinese counterpart was held in Beijing where both the leaders discussed bilateral relations and the regional situation.

These agreements signed between the two countries include solar power production at Quaid-e Azam Solar Park, easy loan for laying optic fibre between the two countries, mining of 65,00,000 metric tons of coal in Thar Block-2, a 870 MW SukhiKinari hydropower project, a 1320 MW Sahiwal power project and MoU for 100 MW Jhimpir wind power project.

Speaking to media representatives after the meeting, Nawaz Sharif said the Pakistan-China Economic Corridor Project will prove a game changer in the region. He also expressed the confidence that his visit to China would help resolve energy crisis in the country, adding that resolution of energy problem will bring progress and prosperity to Pakistan.

The projects include coal, solar and wind based electricity generation units. An investment of US$35 billion is anticipated in the energy sector. These projects would generate 23,000 MW whereas the total generation of electricity in the country till date is only 21,000 MW.

China intends to invest US$50 billion in energy and infrastructure projects in Pakistan till 2017 of which $15 billion investment is anticipated in infrastructure projects only. These included Lahore-Karachi Motorway, Karakorum Highway and expanding the capacity of Gawadar Port. In the transportation sector, the railway line from Karachi to Peshawar would be modernized and upgraded.

In a briefing minister for planning and development informed the cabinet that during the visit of the prime minister of Pakistan to China in July last year, an agreement was reached on the establishment of an "Economic Corridor". He added that because of hard work during the last six months and confidence of the Chinese government on Pakistani leadership, the number of projects has increased.

Pakistan-China economic corridor project is likely to get funding from the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB).The bank is being set up on the proposal of Chinese President to support the developing countries for construction of their basic infrastructure. In this connection, twenty-one countries including Pakistan are willing to join AIIB and have signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU). The countries signing the MoU includes Bangladesh, India, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Malaysia, Oman, Pakistan, Qatar, Singapore, Sri Lanka, Thailand and Uzbekistan, besides Pakistan and China.

The name ‘Corridor’ suggests a gateway or a passage that connects the two countries, continents or regions. This ‘economic corridor’ will not be the first in history. The use of sea and land routes has assisted in the globalization process of opening Asia, as early as the 19th century. Suez Canal, opened in 1869, acted to aid the empires of great powers during the time. The canal through the Sinai Peninsula made trade and empire faster but also economical. The world’s superpower of the time, Great Britain, made great strategic use of it, by transport of goods, officials and soldiers to Bombay and other key colonial hubs in an easier and affordable manner. Similarly, Pakistan and China’s economic corridor sets out to achieve the same goals in a cooperative and democratic manner.

The project received a major boost when control of Gawadar was transferred to China’s state-owned China Overseas Ports Holding in February 2013. Built by Chinese workers and opened in 2007, Gwadar is undergoing a major expansion to turn it into a full-fledged deep-water commercial port. Pakistan and China have signed agreements for constructing an international airport at Gwadar, upgrading a section of the 1,300-Kilometre Karakorum Highway connecting to Islamabad and laying a fibre-optic cable from the Chinese border to the Pakistani city of Rawalpindi. With the development of the corridor Central Asia, traditionally an economically closed region owing to its geography and lack of infrastructure, will have greater access to the sea and to the global trade network. The Pak-China Economic Corridor Secretariat was inaugurated in Islamabad on August 27, 2013.

Physically, the corridor is a 2,700-Kilometre highway that stretches from Kashghar to Gwadar through Khunjrab. But in essence, these road and rail links will further strengthen the bond of brotherhood, as highlighted by the two governments. China Pakistan Economic Corridor from Kashgar to Gwadar will integrate the economies of the two friendly countries. The project envisages establishing several economic zones and physical links connecting Pakistan and China. Both the countries believe that this economic corridor will benefit new emerging regional cooperation in South Asia. This project is set out to transform the future of the region, driven by economy and energy, and the building of pipelines and ports with roads rail infrastructure.

Pakistan serves as an important ally for China in the South Asian Region. Pakistan’s geographical location puts it on the main route connecting China and the Middle East and China and Central Asia. For economic and strategic connectivity with these regions, China requires safe passage through Pakistan especially after China’s growing share in world trade.

Chairman of the Pakistan-China Institute, Senator Mushahid Hussain Sayed believes that the economic corridor will play a crucial role in regional integration of the ‘Greater South Asia’, which includes China, Iran, Afghanistan, and stretches all the way to Myanmar. A strong Pakistan is valuable as it warrants that Indian claim of regional hegemony will not go unchallenged. He opined that the Pakistan-China Economic Corridor is of immense importance for the revival of Pakistan’s economy, resolution of energy crisis and strengthening the Federation through development and infrastructure.

Pakistan-China Economic Corridor is strategically important for both China and Pakistan keeping in view the growing regional trade and investment collaboration. It is a win-win opportunity for Pakistan and China and the agreements of early harvest projects during Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif visit to China have great significance. These projects would be completed within a span of two to three years time and these include rail, road network besides several long and short term energy projects.

Pakistan is the first South Asian country to sign a free trade agreement and currency swap agreement with China and is also the largest destination of Chinese investment in South Asia. China is Pakistan’s second largest trading partner and fourth largest export market. China-Pakistan Economic Corridor has the potential to turn Pakistan into a hub of regional cooperation. If Pakistan uses this opportunity wisely and is able to reap the economic benefits this corridor has to offer, it can greatly enhance its regional power and prestige and prove a more valuable long-term ally for Beijing.

Beijing would be investing between $30 billion and $40 billion in Pakistan to develop the much-awaited Pak-China Economic Corridor (PCEC) which the logistics experts believe would enable China to significantly reduce the cost of its 70-million-TEUs containerized trade with Europe.

According to All Pakistan Shipping Association (APSA) Chairman Aasim Siddiqui once developed the proposed corridor would cut the conventional 19,000-mile Sino-Europe shipping route by thousands of miles.

Rendering PCEC to be of “immense importance” for the economy of Pakistan, Siddiqui told an intermodal Europe exhibition held recently in Rotterdam, Netherlands, that if transported through PCEC, the shipment of containerized cargo from Europe to western China would take about 9,000 miles only.

“Sino-Europe bilateral trade involves around 225 million TEUs. If only 10 percent of this huge containerized trade goes through Pakistan we would see our transport industry grow by three fold,” said Aasim.

The APSA chief says this 10 percent, which would add at least 7 million TEUs to Pakistan’s containerized trade, was a conservative figure and the potential figure might be up to 20 plus percent.

Work on the significant project, however, had been lingering for quite some time because the Chinese government had been planning to link Gwadar Port with western parts of China through constructing a new road network.

Pakistan has suggested to Chinese that instead of building new one they should tape Pakistan’s existing communication network and build an expressway to link Gwadar-Ratodhero Road to the national highway.

The two sides have decided the formula to make a matching investment on the expressway project. Under the formula a third lane would be added to the two-lane national highway road network to save money to be spent on the development of a new trade route. Matching funds would be made as the economic interest of two countries is common.

To reap the “trickled down” dividends of the Sino-Europe future trade, Pakistan would have to build local infrastructure through developing cargo villages, dry ports, attracting fresh investment in trucking field and so on.

It is believed that even Kazakistan is pro-actively working to benefit its geo-strategic location by developing a rail network to link Shanghai with Eastern Europe. They have run the train which would take 16 days to commute between the two destinations.

The corridor would have a “slow trickle-down effect” on Pakistan’s economy. The APSA chairman during the Rotterdam’s event claims to have received “encouraging” response from international intermodal transport service providers to establish business alliance with Pakistan for the development of PCEC.

Prof GaoJianlong, president of the Xinjiang Academy of Social Sciences, told reporters at a seminar held in Urumqi, (Xinjiang Autonmous Region) that AIIB was supposed to finance the mega projects like Pak-China economic corridor, which is a development project that would connect Gawadar Port to China’s northwestern region of Xinjiang via highways, railways and pipelines to transport oil and gas.

Chinese Prime Minister was among the first advocates of the project. As per policy of the Chinese government wants to offer equal development to all the regional countries. After completion, the Pak-China economic corridor will serve as a primary gateway to trade among China, Middle East and Africa through Pakistan. Particularly, the oil from the Middle East could be offloaded at Gawadar, which is located just outside the mouth of the Persian Gulf.

The oil would be transported to China through Pakistan. Such a link would vastly cut the 12,000-kilometres route that Mideast oil supplies must now take to reach Chinese ports. According to a deal signed in July, the project includes construction of 200 kilometers long tunnel, which will link both the countries and facilitate trade and commuters.

As per the plan, special economic zones would be established along the economic corridor, and Chinese companies have shown willingness to set up industries in the zones.

The MOU specifies that the authorized capital of AIIB is 100 billion US dollars and the initial subscribed capital is expected to be around 50 billion dollars. AIIB will be an inter-governmental regional development institution in Asia. It is expected that the Prospective Founding Members will complete the signing and ratification of the Articles of Agreement (AOA) in 2015 and AIIB will be formally established by the end of 2015. The proposed Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank will bring benefits to all parties involved.

China could contribute 50 per cent of the bank's capital. This shows China's determination to establish the bank but the final investment is open to adjustment, depending on how many countries participate. By economic weight, China is still expected to hold the biggest share.

Pakistan: Performance of Power Sector

Pakistan’s National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA) has released its annual State of the Industry Report 2014 covering a detailed review of major segments of the power chain. Highlighting pertinent issues in generation, transmission and distribution and developments over the period, the report also prescribes possible solutions to relieve ailing players of the sector.

Key recommendations in the report include the diversion of gas to power generation, LNG price and tariff to be set after analyzing all alternatives, technical studies to assess the impact of new renewable energy plants on the national grid, timely completion of coal based generation projects and decentralizing the role of PEPCO and ministries. In addition, recent developments in the media regarding the planned release of the 2015 Power Policy have renewed impetus for promoting investment in the sector in the long run.

During the period under review 105,733GwH of electricity were produced, registering an increase of 6.7%YoY. Analysis reveals that diverting 150mmcfd to the four IPPs currently operating on gas would allow them to operate on gas throughout the year instead of HSD during the winter months. Gas supply deficit leaves the room for RLNG fired power plants, NEPRA has advised for a thorough analysis of alternatives before RLNG based power plants are setup. 

Deterioration in the efficiencies and generation levels of GENCO's (installed capacity of 4,829MW) is also a point of concern while GoP's initiatives to setup large coal fired plants and invest in GENCO’s repairs and extensions are beneficial. However the privatization process for these GENCO’s is already underway casting doubts on the timing of these moves. IPP's have added 7% generation to the grid over the year, with a capacity utilization averaging 77%.

Lack of proper management aside, NEPRA has highlighted the need for T&D losses to be curtailed by DISCOs, where they continued to disappoint as T&D losses still hover slightly below 19%, while recoveries remained around 89% for FY14. Moreover, NTDC has been criticized for not upgrading its systems to allow for accommodating newly initiated power projects including planned hydro projects in Dasu, Diamer Basha, and imported coal projects on coastal locations with approximate costs of US$9 billion.

Projections for future capacity additions to the grid and increase in demand show an increase in the shortfall reaching 4,920MW by FY16, with a reduction in the shortfall every year thereafter, leading to a surplus by FY20. In order to tackle the situation, major recommendation in the report include 1) diversion of gas to power generation, 2) LNG price and tariff to be set after analyzing all alternatives, 3) technical studies to assess the impact of new renewable energy plants on the national grid, 4) timely completion of coal based generation projects and 5) decentralizing the role of PEPCO and ministries.

 

US drilling rig count witnessing sharp decline

The war between United States and OPEC (led by Saudi Arabia) regarding who enjoys the power to determine crude oil price seems to be getting bitter.  Initially it appeared that neither of the groups would voluntarily cut down production but now it appears both are cutting production but at a different pace.

As the price declined by almost 50% it started pinching all but shale producers felt the real brunt. According to one of Bloomberg reports drillers have reduced the number of rigs in service by 83 to 1,140, the lowest number since December 2011.

“We’re seeing signs that the market is beginning to give greater weight in its pricing to the likelihood that shale oil production in the U.S. will be cut over coming months,” Ric Spooner, Chief Strategist at CMC Markets in Sydney, told newswire service.

According to Baker Hughes total U.S. rig count has declined by a record 435 in nine weeks. The drop of 37 at the Permian Basin, the largest oil field of the US has been the steepest since the services company began reporting basin-by-basin counts in February 2011.

OPEC alone can’t maintain “reasonable prices” and cooperation with producers outside of the group is necessary, Venezuela’s Chavez said. A news indicates that Chevron has cut output from Saudi-Kuwaiti oil fields.

According to some scanty details crude production dropped by 20 percent since October at a venture that Chevron Corp operates in the Wafra field, which Kuwait is developing in collaboration with Saudi Arabia.

The Wafra project, in which Chevron had planned to invest as much as US$40 billion, is one of the world’s largest attempts to free heavy oil by injecting steam underground.

All eyes are set at the next meeting of OPEC when Saudi Arabia, the largest producer and Kuwait, the group’s third-biggest member will join other OPEC states to assess market conditions and set production levels scheduled on June 5 in Vienna.

Reportedly, Kuwait has stopped issuing work permits for Saudi Chevron employees at Wafra oil fields, located in a shared neutral zone along Saudi Arabia because country’s ministry of labor and social affairs halted services to the company.

 

 

Indian hegemony in South Asia

The importance of Pak China cooperation in infrastructure development can be best understood if one goes through the Indian opposition of Chinese support for Gwadar port. India itself is helping Iran in the construction of Chabahar port, located at a distance of around 70 kilometers from Gwadar. It seems that India is fully aware of the fact that Pakistan offers the shortest and the most cost effective route to Central Asia via Afghanistan.

India is constructing Chabahar not only to undermine Pakistan’s importance but also for establishing its hegemony in the Indian Ocean. In this endeavor India is fully supported by the United States, as no action has been taken against India for violating economic sanctions imposed on Iran.

India terms Gawadr a threat for its existence and its maritime trade. It goes to the extent of term Gwadar a potential Chinese naval port. If India is constructing Chabahar to protect its economic interest, China is also doing the same by managing Gwadar to protect its commercial interest, especially oil being bought from Iran.

One of the points is that India had been overreacting about the Chinese assistance extended in the construction of the Gwadar port in the Baluchistan province of Pakistan. India has been creating the hype that the Chinese presence in Gwadar is not only a serious threat for India, but it would also give China extra leverage in the region.

India alleges that China has acquired management control of Gwadar to use it as its naval base. This mantra is aimed at seeking support of United States and Russia, who consider China a major power in the region.

Indian propaganda has also been aimed at creating an impression that Afghanistan was highly unhappy because it wanted to join hands with India to move its shipments through Chabahar port. India also tried to pass on the message to Central Asian countries that Chabahar located in warm waters and the road and rail network being constructed would make it the gateway for them to the rest of world. Additionally, there has also been regular propaganda about Iranian, Afghani and Indian cooperation. However, one of the news sources quoting Iranian authorities opened the Pandora’s Box and unleashed the disinformation being spread by India. In a meeting, Hassan Nourian, Iranian Consul General in India exposed the extent of cooperation being extended by India.

Being a seasoned diplomat, Nourian expressed hope that India would act fast on the Chabahar port, which it had promised to build as far back as 2003. The message in between the lines was loud and clear — that Iranians were upset with Indian attitude.

India’s exasperatingly slow progress in building the port — 11 years so far and work has not even begun — has been a major source of irritation for the Iranians. After all, they gave the project to India rejecting a Chinese offer.

A s against this, the Chinese have finished building the Gwadar port in Pakistan that is located 70 kilometers east of Chabahar. It seems that the Iranians have realized, though very late, the reason why India wanted the project — to thwart the Chinese. It has also become evident why the India is dragging its feet — for fear of annoying the US. For Iran, the Chabahar port is of great economic importance and its great economic and strategic significance is also known to India. The port has the potential to open a route that leads to Afghanistan, a lucrative market today, and beyond, to the mineral-rich countries such as Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan. As Iran is annoyed there emerges an opportunity for China, which is one of the biggest buyers of Iranian oil, seeking a port outside Strait of Hormaz. India has also realized that the game is slipping out of its hands. If India loses Chabahar to the Chinese, it would greatly undermine much talked about Indian supremacy in the Indian Ocean. Sri Lanka offered the Humbantota port development project to India, twice. The tsunami-ravaged port was in President Rajapaksa’s constituency and he was keen on re-building it. While India dithered, China jumped in.

Humbantota has developed into a fine port. India ceded a key strategic space in its own backyard to China. No one could be blamed except India, because UPA partner DMK didn’t let India do any development work in Sri Lanka. Now, Chabahar is going the Humbantota way. While India drags its feet in Myanmar, China is moving in fast. While India dumped the two hydro-electric projects terming those “too expensive”, China is going ahead with as many as 33 projects. The port of Sittwe is critically important for India, for it would open up the North East. India did secure the project — it was given to the Essar Group. There have been delays, but the work has begun. However, the project is only a part of what India had committed to doing, which was to build the entire multi-modal transport corridor — the Kaladan project. For parts of the project other than the port, even the tenders have not been floated.

At this stage, place after place in India’s neighborhood, including Afghanistan, are likely to slip out of its dominance and going under China’s influence. This is happening only because of the dichotomy of Indian policies.

India on one hand tries to extract all the possible benefits by making false promises and on the other hand desert those projects once the United States and Russia increase aid and assistance that helps in achieving the status of regional super power and creating its hegemony in South Asia.

Pakistan: Shia carnage in Shikarpur

In the second attack of 2015 on a mosque of Shia sect in Shikarpur in Sindh over 60 people were martyred, the first attack was in Rawalpindi. Police has been prompt in terming it a suicide attack. 

Reuters reported that Jundullah, a splinter group of Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), which last year pledged support for the Islamic State group based in Syria and Iraq, claimed responsibility. “Our target was the Shia mosque ... They are our enemies,” said Jundullah spokesman Fahad Marwat

Residents of Sindh showed complete solidarity with the families who lost their near and dear. Sindh government announced a day of mourning in solidarity with the families of the victims and said the national flag would fly at half mast and compensation was also announced for the victims' families.

On the call of Majlis Wahdat-i-Muslimeen (MWM), a large number of men, women and children staged sit-in various parts of provincial capital as well as other cities. Protesters said that terrorists are roaming freely and the government has failed to protect citizens' lives.

MWM was joined by Sunni Ittehad Council, Sunni Alliance, Pakistan Muslim League - Quaid and the Pakistan Awami Tehreek. However, many of the political and religious parties remained completely aloof.

Over the years it has been alleged that Punjab offers the safe sanctuaries for militants but PML-N been denying it. In the aftermath of Shikarpur carnage, Federal Interior Minister Nisar Ali Khan has accepted presence of various militant groups and extremists in Punjab. 

According to the scanty information provided to media 14,000 individuals were hauled up for investigation; 341 allegedly involved in hate speech; 1,100 warned for misuse of loudspeakers; and 41 shops closed for distributing hate material. These numbers pertain to the recent National Action Plan initiated only but no one knows about those arrested and freed.

The revelations by the interior minister indicate a continuing unwillingness to be as forthright as possible. Virtually nothing has been done in over a decade to clamp down on extremist and militant outfits in the province. According to the minister the groups operating in the province have soared to 95, well above the nationally banned 72 groups that the interior ministry itself has listed.

His revelation prompts following questions rightly raised by Dawn in one of its editorial:

• Which groups comprise the list of 95 militant/extremist outfits
• Which additional groups have become active in Punjab?
• Who are the leaders of these groups?
• Where do they operate?
• What is their reach?
• Who funds them?
• Which madressahs, mosques or religious networks are they tied to?
• What attacks have they carried out?
• And, perhaps most relevantly, what types of attacks are they suspected of planning?

In any investigation, first the motive of crime has to be determined. Police by declaring this a suicide attack has freed itself and Reuters report involving Jundullah is likely to mislead further investigation. Linking Jundullah with TTP is totally misleading as these two groups have nothing in common.
 

While it is almost impossible to deny foreign involvement in such incidences, the real operators are certainly Pakistanis or those coming from other countries having found safe sanctuaries in Pakistan.

One has all the reasons to believe that most of the extremist outfits have bases in KPK, Punjab and Baluchistan

While these operators may kill hundreds of innocent people in those provinces to spread terrorism, killings in Sindh are aimed at making Pakistan economically weaker.

As such the interfaith harmony is at its peak in Sindh and Shia-Sunni rift is not a local phenomenon. Many in Sindh believe that sectarian killing in the province is done by groups based in other provinces.

Tale of two ports Chabahar and Gwadar

Lately two ports, namely Gawadar and Chabahar, have emerged on Makran coast that are located at a distance of about 70 kilometers. One is located in Baluchistan province of Pakistan and other is also situated in Sistan-Baluchistan province of Iran. Both the ports have been constructed with the stated objective of finding efficient and cost effective routes to energy-rich Central Asian countries passing through Afghanistan.

The point to be explored is that both the ports have been constructed by two rivals, China and India, one an accepted world super power and the other a self-proclaimed regional super power. The story is not as simple as being narrated because the United States is fully supporting India in establishing its hegemony in the region by not taking any action against India for supporting Iran facing economic sanctions for more than three decades.

Afghan transit trade has been passing through Pakistan since independence. Arms, ammunition and combat forces also used this route when USSR attacked Afghanistan and also when the United States attached Afghanistan in the aftermath of 9/11. While this route has been used for supplies for combat forces for more than four decades, the need was felt for developing another route that could provide easy access to landlocked countries to ‘warm waters’.

Since the United States could not construct an alternative rout passing through Iran at its own, it encouraged India to support Iran, facing economic sanctions for more than three decades, in building a port outside Strait of Hormuz and link it with Central Asian states via Afghanistan.

The work on both the ports started around the same time. While the rulers in Pakistan remained engrossed in ‘war against terror’ and didn’t raise any objection on Indian involvement in an Iranian port, India remained critical of Chinese involvement in Gwadar. On almost every forum India tries to prove that Chinese involvement in Gwadar is a threat for its (Indian) existence.

The plea taken by India is that Indian Ocean should remain ‘arms free’. However, navies of almost all the major powers are present in the area to protect their maritime trade. It is on record that almost 60% of global maritime trade passes through Indian Ocean. It may not be wrong to say that in the name of protecting their maritime trade certain countries have deployed their submarines and aircraft carriers in the Indian Ocean, which could become a ground for proxy war.

Pakistan has over 1,200 kilometer long coastal line, which offers the country opportunities to establish Special Economic Zones and attract huge foreign investment. However, presence of insurgent and resistance groups in Baluchistan has kept foreign investors away from Pakistan. Fallout of the war going on in the neighborhood is that some of the militant groups have found safe havens in the province.

There is also a loud talk about creation of ‘Greater Baluchistan’ comprising of one slice each from Iran, Pakistan and Afghanistan. Since India has played a major role in turning East Pakistan into Bangladesh, keeping an eye on its involvement in Chabahar, growing insurgency in Baluchistan and armed conflicts at Pak Iran border is necessary.

US to stay in Afghanistan beyond 2014

I wrote a blog as back as in August 2012 raising a question, will US pull troops out of Afghanistan? My gut feeling even at that time was that the troops would not be pulled out for one or the reason. I recently read an article which substantiates my point of view. I have all the reasons to believe that point of view of author is right.

The basic premise of author is that after 13 years of war, President Barack Obama has declared the end of U.S. combat operations in Afghanistan. “Our combat mission in Afghanistan is ending, and the longest war in American history is coming to a responsible conclusion,'” Obama said in a statement from Honolulu, where he is spending his Christmas vacation. But that should not be taken to mean that there will be no U.S. forces in the country, nor that they will not be engaged in warfare in the New Year.  He mentioned five reasons for the retention of US troops that are:

Afghanistan wants help

American troops will remain in Afghanistan for more time. A day after his oath taking Afghan President Mohammed Ashraf Ghani signed a bilateral security agreement with the U.S., extending the American military presence in his country beyond 2014. Obama has announced plans for a phased withdrawal of troops over the next two years that will leave about 5,500 there by the end of 2015 and 1,000 by the beginning of 2017.

Withdrawals are already delayed

The New Year has begun with as many as 10,800 American troops still in Afghanistan, or about 1,000 more than Obama had planned. Departing Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel, who announced the withdrawal slowdown earlier, said delays in Afghanistan's election process and in the signing of the security agreement left allies unable to commit enough troops in time. While the extra American troops may stay only for several months, the need for them underscores continuing tensions between military commanders worried that Afghan forces aren't ready to stave off the Taliban and a president determined to keep his promise to end the war on schedule.

Afghan training continues

While the U.S. and allied combat mission is officially over, American troops who stay on will spend the next two years training and advising Afghan forces. The Afghans also still need aviation and intelligence support that the U.S. will provide in 2015. That role could still put U.S. troops in combat as a Taliban offensive is under way. Kabul, once among the most secure cities, has been the scene of daily bombings lately.

The War on Terror isn't over

The U.S. forces are still conducting counterterrorism operations. As part of their redefined mission for the next two years, Americans will focus on terrorist threats that may be posed by Taliban leaders or remnants of al-Qaeda. Those operations could still risk combat casualties, albeit in smaller numbers.

The Taliban isn't done either

Shortly before declaring combat over, Obama quietly authorized continuation of some offensive air and ground operations in 2015 to protect any remaining U.S. forces, ensuring their right of self-defense. The Taliban and other militants have stepped up attacks across the country in recent weeks in an attempt to overthrow Ghani's new government. The violence has killed and wounded about 10,000 civilians in 2014, according to the United Nations. More than 2,300 Americans have died in the war, which began as an effort to oust the Taliban after 9/11 terrorist attacks on the U.S.. More than 20,000 U.S. troops have been wounded.