Pakistani politicians to discuss Taliban talks offer

Awami National Party (ANP), a coalition partner in the present government, has convened All Parties Conference (APC) on Thursday to deliberate on the Taliban offer for talks by Taliban.

It is expected that the moot will be attended by at least 26 parties. However Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) and Jamat-e-Islami (JI) have declined to attend the APC.

This APC, a brainchild of ANP, was being pursued following the assassination of senior ANP leader and provincial minister Bashir Ahmad Bilour in December 2012. Taliban had claimed the responsibility his killing.

It is expected that the mainstream political parties will try to come up with a consensus strategy to deal with TTP menace. According to ANP, the conference will be held in camera because of the sensitive nature of the issue.

Some experts say that some of the political parties are sympathizers of TTP, though they refuse to accept this. As they know that entire proceeding will be recorded they prefer to stay away from this.

According to ANP all the major parties, including the PPP, PML-N, PML-Q, JUI-F and the MQM have accepted the invitation to attend the conference. It is regretted that JI and PTI had declined to participate in the event.

While JI refused to attend the conference, the PTI leadership even declined to meet the ANP delegation which wanted to extend the invitation.

Political pundits have termed the conference a significant development after TTP expressed willingness to hold conditional talks with the Government of Pakistan (GoP).

TTP spokesman had expressed the willingness to talks if PML-N President Nawaz Sharif, JUI-F chief Maulana Fazlur Rehman and JI Amir Syed Munawwar Hasan acted as guarantors for the talks. Nawaz has welcomed the peace talk offer but refused to be a guarantor.

The GoP has appreciated the willingness of TTP to talks but urged it to announce a 30-day ceasefire as a precursor to peace talks. It is on record that TTP stepped up attacks in recent months.

“First there should be ceasefire and peace talks can be held only after it,” said Interior Minister Rehman Malik.

“The nation has rejected the system of Taliban, this is voice of majority, come forward, announce a one-month ceasefire and then hold negotiations,” added Malik.

Some of the critics have rejected TTP offer and accused the authorities of appeasement in trying to broker peace with TTP in the past. They say such deals give militants time to regroup before launching further attacks.

As opposed to this some quarters had expressed fears that believe the recent attacks by TTP were creating fears that violence could mar general elections scheduled to take place by mid-May this year.

Growing Incidents of Violence in Karachi

According to media reports at least 15 more people lost their lives on Monday in the ongoing wave of violence in Karachi. These Killings have been reported from different parts of the metropolis having diversified ethnic and sectarian concentrations.

Indiscriminate killing in large numbers spread fear throughout the metropolis having a population of nearly 20 million or 10 percent of Pakistan’s total population. The city having two ports is termed the hub of industrial and commercial activities and shops and small businesses are shut down soon after the killing. Public transport also goes off-road.

On Monday the special investigation department of CID police has arrested three people including two alleged members of banned Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). According to police, those arrested were allegedly involved in several acts of extortions and targeted killings.

Those killed include four activists of the MQM and two policemen. A police official Syed Mukhtar Rizvi was killed apparently for sectarian reasons. He was posted in the headquarters of the security zone of the police organizational structure. A young man said to be a sympathizer of the Ahle Sunnat Wal Jamaat was shot dead. Bodies of two young men were found from a garbage dump in Abbas Town bearing torture marks and gunshot wounds. Police believe that the victims were killed somewhere else.

In the evening confusion surrounded an explosion near Qayyumabad Bridge near Karachi’s posh area when three different reports regarding nature of the blast surfaced. The explosion was heard from far distances and spread fear among residents of neighboring areas.

According to gas supplying company, Sui Southern Gas Company (SSGC) it was a cracker attack that affected walls of a sub-station but equipment installed there remained safe. As opposed to this, police sources said the explosion ripped through a gas pipeline near the Bridge injuring a policeman. Later, the bomb disposal squad of Karachi Police suggested that it was an act of terrorism. They said the planted bomb was detonated by a time device and around 200 kilos of explosive material was used in the blast.

The MQM, coalition partner at the federal and provincial levels has termed the increase in target killings and incidents of terrorism in Karachi part of a well-planned conspiracy and called upon the country’s leadership to take effective steps for protecting the life and property of citizens.

One can still recall that MQM chief Altaf Hussain had forewarned about the threats when terrorists started making Karachi a center of their activities. At that time, other political and religious parties denied the reality. They alleged that the MQM wanted to frighten the people and it was talking against a particular community. Now media reports highlight that many areas in Karachi had become places similar to Waziristan where even law-enforcement personnel could not enter.

The general perception in Karachi is that while leaders of political and religious parties have been criticizing the Sindh Government over the incidents of terrorism and target killings they are not ready to talk openly against elements responsible for violence, bloodshed and terrorism in Karachi.

Withdrawal of Nato Troops from Afghanistan

The much awaited withdrawal of Nato troops has started. The first phase of withdrawal from Afghanistan began on Sunday with the entry of 25 containers into Pakistan. Security sources confirmed that the Convey would be provided with routine security for its journey from Torkham to Karachi. Custom officials also confirmed that several containers were examined and cleared after these entered into Pakistan.

US General, Joseph Dunford has assumed command of Nato forces in Afghanistan on Sunday, He took over the charge from General John Allen as the coalition prepares to withdraw the bulk of combat troops by next year. Marine General Dunford will likely be the last commander of the United States’ longest war. He has been entrusted the enormous task of taking the combat soldiers along with their equipment back home after more than 11 years and overseeing the transfer of Afghan security duties to local forces.

With the commencement of withdrawal two other more pressing issues also need resolution; on top of the agenda is release of Taliban. Pakistan has agreed to give a formal role to Afghan High Peace Council in the release of remaining Taliban detainees. Pakistani authorities would consult the Council through a new coordination mechanism being put in place before setting more Taliban prisoners free. The new mechanism gives a say to the Council about who should be released for being useful in the peace and reconciliation process.

It has been agreed between Pakistan and Afghanistan to put in place arrangements to strengthen coordination of Taliban detainee releases from Pakistani custody in support of the peace and reconciliation process. Pakistan has already released 26 Taliban. Those released included some high-profile Afghan commanders and political leadership of the Taliban regime.

“We would send lists of Taliban prisoners that we intend to release to the Afghan High Peace Council which would comment on the names in those lists,” Foreign Secretary Jalil Abbas Jilani told the Senate Foreign Affairs Committee.

However, rather odd situation seems to prevail with regards to CIA-operated drone attacks. The Senate Committee was told that Pakistan could not afford to shoot down US. “We cannot bear the fallout of shooting down drones,” said Jilani while listing the options available for Pakistan to deal with US drones violating Pakistan’s airspace.

He said Pakistan’s policy for dealing with drones is two pronged — reiterating the policy position that drone strikes were counter-productive and a violation of international law; and holding talks with the US for getting them stopped. But, he underscored that the best possible option for Pakistan was to rid its tribal areas of all foreign militants.

“We need to have a comprehensive policy for expelling all foreign fighters having sanctuaries in Fata,” Jilani said. His views were endorsed by Senator Mushahid Hussain who said the presence of foreign fighters gave excuse to other countries to violate our sovereignty.

Pakistan estimates that some 1900 — 3000 people have been killed in US drone attacks. Chairman Foreign Affairs Committee Senator Haji Adeel noted that there were about 473 Pakistanis among those killed by drones. He said that relationship of Pakistani victims with the targets of the drones was not clear.

Another dimension is that the former commander of US and Nato forces in Afghanistan, Gen Stanley McChrystal said that there was widespread resentment against drone strikes in Pakistan. Earlier he had said that US drone strikes were “hated on a visceral level”. 

He warned that too many drone strikes in Pakistan without identifying suspected militants individually can be a bad thing. He asked the Americans how they would react if a neighboring country like Mexico started firing drone missiles at targets in Texas.

Should Pakistan negotiate with TTP?

According to media reports Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has expressed willingness to talk to the Government of Pakistan (GoP) and has set two conditions for the talks. It has blamed the GoP for not taking earlier ceasefire offer seriously.

The TTP spokesman expressed lack of confidence over the military but expressed willingness to talk if Maulana Fazlur Rehman, Munawar Hasan, and Nawaz Sharif came forward for being the guarantors.

The second condition is release of three of its militants, Muslim Khan, Haji Umar and Maulana Mehmood. While there are suggestions that the GoP should start negotiations some quarters strictly oppose this because they consider TTP a collection of mercenaries working against Pakistan and killing Pakistanis. They also don’t accept them as Mujahedeen fighting against foreign occupiers in Afghanistan but their accomplice.

When TTP spokesman Ehsnaullah Ehsan talked to media at an undisclosed location near Pak-Afghan border in this video released on February 3, 2013, the prime convict in the Pervez Musharraf attempted suicide attack case; Adnan Rashid was sitting beside him. One can recall Adnan Rashid was freed by TTP fighters during the Bannu Jail break in July last year.

Analysts term TTP a cluster of various militant groups and their stated objectives are: 1) assault on Pakistan and its Army, 2) enforcement of their interpretation of Sharia and 3) a plan to unite against NATO-led forces in Afghanistan. It is often believed that the TTP is not directly affiliated with the Afghan Taliban movement, with both groups differing greatly in their histories, strategic goals and interests, although both belong to the Deobandi sect.

The TTP is at war with Pakistan Army in the tribal belt but has lately extended its operations to urban areas of Pakistan. TTP's main group consists of fighters and commanders who never took part in war against USSR or Nato in Afghanistan but they started their actions against Pakistan Army.

It is often alleged that they gets funds and arms from external source. They have started their activities near Durand Line but their main target is Pakistan not the occupying forces in Afghanistan. It is also alleged that their target is nuclear assets of Pakistan because TTP is contently keeping Pakistan Army engaged and distracting its attention from Indian border.

According to some experts about a hundred thousand Pakistanis have been killed or wounded and nearly 10,000 men in uniform martyred but TTP has been pushed back into Afghanistan from where they are now launching their operations against Pakistan. Experts have the consensus that TTP is a group of terrorists and it has no links or relations with Afghan resistance groups fighting against Nato-led forces.

Some analysts believing in conspiracy theories openly accuse that they are getting arms and funds from India and America. They even go to the extent of saying that CIA is killing leaders of Afghan resistance groups through drone attacks or through TTP. Therefore, TTP is not eligible for negotiations. Instead it must be weeded out completely else it will regroup and attack Pakistan with renewed power. TTP will actually do what the ‘godfathers’ will tell them to do.

TTP has been attacking mainly strategic installations in Pakistan and destroying equipments which have been procured at very high cost. They attacked PNS Mehran and destroyed AWACS planes which are very important for Pakistan’s maritime security. They attacked Peshawar Airbase and targeted fuel tanks there which were designated for fighter aircrafts for negotiating any aerial threat from West. They even attacked GHQ of Pakistan Army.

In Pakistan, they recruited many tribal and Punjabi youngsters in the name of Jihad but are now using Tajiks and Uzbeks for their operations against Pakistan. It is believed that Tajik and Uzbek fighters are being supplied by India operating military bases in Tajikistan. These bases are located just a few kilometers away from Uzbek border inside Tajikistan.

It is believed that TTP does not feel comfortable in Afghanistan. It fears after the withdrawal of Nato-forces from Afghanistan, Afghan resistance groups will try to eliminate them because they had caused huge damage to them.

 In a May 2010 US General David Petraeus described the TTP's relationship with other militant groups as difficult to decipher: "There is clearly a symbiotic relationship between all of these different organizations: al-Qaeda, the Pakistani Taliban, the Afghan Taliban, Tehreek-e-Nafaz-e-Shariat-e-Mohammadi. And it's very difficult to parse and to try to distinguish between them. They support each other, they coordinate with each other, sometimes they compete with each other, [and] sometimes they even fight each other. But at the end of the day, there is quite a relationship between them."

Another offshoot of the TTP is The Tehreek-i-Taliban Punjab, alternatively called the Punjabi Taliban. It is also said to be a loose network of members of banned militant groups based in South Punjab. Major factions of the Punjabi Taliban are said to be Lashkar-i-Jhangvi, Sipah-i-Sahaba Pakistan and Jaysh-i-Muhammad. It has increasingly provided the foot-soldiers for violent acts and has played an important role in attacking Ahmedi, Shia, Sufi and other civilian targets throughout Pakistan.

The bottomline is that the mercenaries may wear different caps but their objective is common, plunging Pakistan into anarchy. These groups are getting funds and arms from outsides and hire ruthless people to kill and sabotage.

The time has come to weed them out without the slightest consideration that they are Pakistanis. The outlaws deserve no mercy, especially because they have been killing the innocent and helping Pakistan’s enemies to achieve their ulterior objectives.

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India overreacting on Gwadar port issue

India seems to be suffering from a tendency of making unnecessary hue and cry on any action taken by Pakistan, even if it is purely of commercial nature.

This point was proved once again when Indian Defence Minister A.K. Antony said, “China's role in operating a strategically important port in Pakistan is a matter of concern for India”.

However, Salman Khurshid, Indian Foreign Minister later tried to pacify by saying there was no need to overreact to Pakistan’s transferring the management of Gwadar port to China from Singapore.

"I don't think we should overreact to everything that Pakistan does or everything that China is involved in. We need to take these matters in our stride and in the normal course," said Khurshid. He added, "There is a delicate balance in the entire region and I think none of us should be doing something which will upset that balance."

Transfer of management control of Gwadar port to China has become matter of concern India because it considers the port, which is close to the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil shipping lane will open up an energy and trade corridor from the Gulf, across Pakistan to western China. India also believes that China will get the capacity to deploy its forces in the region.

To be honest, transferring control of Gwadar port to China should be of no concern to India, it is Pakistan’s prerogative. The country signed a deal with Singapore that didn't work out as desired. Singapore's PSA International and the Chinese have settled the deal amicably and give no opportunity to any country to even discuss the issue.

China has already made clear that Gwadar is a commercial project and part of longstanding bilateral cooperation between the two countries. Historically, China has been supporting Pakistan to overcome its economic woes, especially in the areas Pakistan faces opposition from the United States.

It is pertinent to mention that the United States refused to treat Pakistan at par with India when the question of transfer of nuclear technology for civilian use came. India was given this technology as reward for not participating in Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline project.

It is also on record that the United States has not stopped India from constructing Chabahar port in Iran and also the rail and road link up to Central Asia passing through Afghanistan. Chabahar port is located even closer to the Strait of Hormuz.

Experts are of the consensus that the United States has been busy in creating its hegemony in South Asia and MENA (Middle East and North Africa). To achieve this it has joined hands with India and promoting its as regional super power.

Construction of Chabahar port is aimed at undermining importance of Pakistan and especially Gwadar port. India is often alleged of supporting rebel groups of Balochistan, which are demanding transferring control of Gwadar port to the provincial government.

A lot of money is required to make Gwadar port efficient and cost effective and the provincial government does not have the funds. It must be recalled that China has extended funds and technical support in the contraction of this deep sea commercial port and also willing to extend more funds, may be this is not liked by India and United States.

Kashmir Can Initiate Third World War

Since 1990 Kashmir Solidarity Day is being celebrated on 5 February every year as a day of protest against Indian occupation of Kashmir. Pakistan maintains that Kashmir is a disputed territory and its final status must be determined by the people of Kashmir. Certain Kashmiri groups believe that Kashmir should be independent of both India and Pakistan. But the resolution seems difficult because both India and Pakistan consider Kashmir their lifeline and are not ready to abandon it at all.

One of the apprehensions is that the third world war will be fought on water and this time it will not be in any other continent but Asia, and most probably in Kashmir. Since independence India and Pakistan have fought three wars and all of these were ignited because of Kashmir, a thorn British Raj had left when it decided to quit the subcontinent.

Some say the Raj couldn’t decide the fate of Kashmir but the growing perception is that it was not on the agenda. The Raj wanted to leave a permanent point of conflict for the newly independent states so that at no stage these two countries even think about cooperating with each other. In fact the Raj was right that this permanent conflict will neither allow these countries to become an economic power. In fact these would become the biggest buyers of armament and the history has proved the Raj was right.

Over the years India has been saying that Kashmir is its integral part and the latest stance it ‘we will not allow another division of Hindustan on the basis of religion’. They even go to the extent of saying that division of India on the basis of religion in 1947 was wrong. In fact the followers of extremist Hindus believed that Pakistan would not survive beyond a few months and also made efforts to weaken Pakistan on one or the other pretext.

 The Kashmir issue has not only resulted in three wars but the countries have been spending billions of dollars annually on procurement of conventional and non-conventional arsenal. Since the two countries have attained the status of atomic powers world leaders have been stressing the need to resolve the Kashmir dispute to avoid an eventuality that may cause a catastrophe in the region. Kashmir is the nuclear flash point of Asia, surrounded by three nuclear powers.

India has been saying that Kashmir is its integral part, though the Prime Minister of India, Manmohan Singh, stated after the 2010 Kashmir Unrest that his government is willing to grant autonomy within the purview of Indian constitution to Kashmir if there is consensus on this issue. Pakistan maintains that Kashmir is the disputed territory and its final status must be determined by the people of Kashmir. China states that Aksai Chin is a part of China and does not recognize the addition of Aksai Chin to the Kashmir region. Certain Kashmiri independence groups believe that Kashmir should neither be a part of India nor of Pakistan but should be given an independent state.

In 1989, a widespread popular and armed insurgency started in Kashmir. This resulted in the formation of militant wings and beginning of the Mujahadeen insurgency, which continues to this day. India contends that the insurgency was largely started by Afghan Mujahadeen who entered the Kashmir valley following the end of the Soviet-Afghan War. Yasin Malik, a leader of one faction of the Jammu Kashmir Liberation Front, was one of the Kashmiris to organize militancy in Kashmir. Since 1995, Malik has renounced the use of violence and calls for strictly peaceful methods to resolve the dispute. He developed differences for shunning the demand for an independent Kashmir.

India claims these insurgents groups get support from Pakistan-administered Kashmir and Afghanistan. They claim Pakistan is supplying munitions to the terrorists and training them in Pakistan. India states that the terrorists have been killing many citizens in Kashmir and committing human rights violations but don’ accept that their own armed forces are responsible for extra judicial murder of thousands of Kashmires and worst abuse of human rights.

Kashmir, as disputed territory between India and Pakistan, is one of the most militarized places in the world. Decades of violence and brutality have divided Hindu and Muslim communities, forcing over nearly half a million people to flee their homes. Military convoys and soldiers armed with AK-47 rifles on the streets are a common scene.

India holds that the Instrument of Accession of the State of Jammu and Kashmir to the Union of India, signed by Maharaja Hari Singh (erstwhile ruler of the State) on 25 October 1947 and executed on 27 October 1947 between the ruler of Kashmir and the Governor General of India was a legal act. It says that The Constituent assembly of Jammu and Kashmir had unanimously ratified the Maharaja's Instrument of Accession to India.

India does not accept the two-nation theory that forms the basis of Pakistan and considers that Kashmir, despite being a Muslim-majority state, is an integral part of India. The common accusation is that insurgency and terrorism in Kashmir is being fueled by Pakistan. The Government of India has repeatedly accused Pakistan of waging a proxy war in Kashmir by providing weapons and financial assistance to terrorist groups in the region.

Pakistan accuses India of hypocrisy, as it refused to recognize the accession of Junagadh to Pakistan and Hyderabad's independence, on the grounds that those two states had Hindu majorities. In fact, India had occupied and forcibly integrated those two territories. Pakistan asserts that the Maharaja held no authority in determining Kashmir's future. Pakistan argues that even if the Maharaja had any authority in determining the plight of Kashmir, he signed the Instrument of Accession under duress, thus invalidating the legitimacy of his actions.

Pakistan says: 1) the popular Kashmiri insurgency demonstrates that the Kashmiri people no longer wish to remain within India. Pakistan suggests that this means that Kashmir either wants to be with Pakistan or independent. 2) According to the two-nation theory, which is one of the theories that is cited for the partition that created India and Pakistan, Kashmir should have been with Pakistan, because it has a Muslim majority. 3) India has shown disregard to the resolutions of the UN Security Council and failed in holding a plebiscite to determine the future allegiance of the state.

Experts say that the real reason for the dispute over Kashmir is water. Kashmir is the origin point for many rivers and tributaries. The river basin is divided between Pakistan, which has about 60 per cent of the catchment area, India with about 20 per cent, Afghanistan with 5 per cent and around 15 per cent in China. The river tributaries are the Jhelum and Chenab rivers, which primarily flow into Pakistan while other branches—the Ravi, Beas, and the Sutlej—irrigates northern India. The Kashmir dispute and the dispute over the water control are somehow related and the fight over the water remains as one of the main problems when establishing good relationships between the two countries.

US buying Iranian oil suspected

There is consensus that super powers violate globally agreed policies, when their own interest is at stake. Though, one can come up with a long list of such policy violations, stories of world’s leading economies defying economic sanctions imposed on Iran have started appearing as headlines in global media.

The latest story publish in Eurasia Review has raised suspicions that even United States, the mastermind of these sanctions was involved in buying Iranian oil. The expected copybook reply could be “We placed order with an exporter and were not aware that the load was blended with oil of Iranian origin.”

Eurasia Review report says, “There is a high probability that US sanctions against Iran have been violated by its own army. Part of the $1.55 billion in fuel the US bought from Turkmenistan for the Afghan army in the last five years may have originated from Iran.”

A report by the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) has also suggested that “despite actions taken by DOD to prevent the purchase of Iranian fuel with US funds, risks remain that US economic sanctions could [have been] violated” from 2007 to 2012.

The suspicion rises because most of the fuel being used in Afghanistan comes from neighboring Iran. Because of the US sanctions on Tehran restricting the trade of Iranian oil and petroleum products, the ISAF has been required to abide by the regulations and buy petrol from eight Afghan-owned companies that deliver petroleum from Turkmenistan, which borders both Iran and Afghanistan.

Turkmenistan is a major regional oil producer, which also sells petroleum products made in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Russia and even Iran. Petrol vendors in Turkmenistan use flexible supply schemes, meaning that fuel of various origins could potentially be blended together.

In response SIGAR report, the US Embassy in Kabul stated “It is possible that if blending is taking place in Turkmenistan it could contain some Iranian fuel,” but refused to admit that fuel imported from Russia could also be blended with Iranian fuel prior to its export to Afghanistan.

It is believed that suppliers are unlikely to blend Iranian fuel, or any other product, with other sourced fuel because of the potential that blending could cause product deviation from specification standards and potentially cause a rejection of the entire shipment, said the Embassy.

A Reuter report says the US believes that the most common trick Iran uses to dodge sanctions is ship-to-ship transfers (STS), in which large tankers leaving Iran’s ports offload Iranian oil to smaller vessels. Then, the Iranian oil is blended with that of another country to disguise it. After that, new shipping documents are issued, giving the blended oil shipment a new identity.

One can still recall that when restrictions were imposed on buying oil from Iran many countries were exempted only to save their economies from sudden and grave shocks. Some of the countries are still buying oil from Iran.

In the recent past Iran was OPEC’s second largest oil producing member, exporting 2.2 million barrels oil per day. The economic sanctions have more than halved oil exports to 890,000 barrels by September 2012.

However, Iranian crude oil exports once again rose to 1.4 million barrels per day lately. Most of this oil was bought by three leading Asian economies; China, India and Japan, where demand for energy has been on the rise. The expansion of tanker fleet by Iran has also helped it to export more oil.