Netanyahu under attack

It is often said that most of the Israelis are now tired of living in a constant state of war and want to live peacefully with Palestinians. There is also a talk that if peace could be negotiated with Palestinians by accepting 'two states' policy and vacating some of the occupied areas, it is a point worth considering. To achieve this objective 'war mania' has to be gotten rid off. In this endeavor Benjamin Netanyahu is considered the biggest hurdle.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is contesting election for another term has come under sever attack by Yuval Diskin, a prominent Israeli ex-intelligence chief. It was an unusually strong and overt assault on Netanyahu by a figure from the security establishment, coming less than three weeks before the January 22 election. The election campaign has hardly touched on security issues like the conflict with Iran or the stalled peace process with the Palestinians, focusing almost entirely on domestic issues.

He accused Netanyahu of acting illegally by ordering the security apparatus to prepare for an attack on Iran before gaining former approval by the cabinet of ministers. He also said Netanyahu squandered the gains made by Israel`s security forces by not using a period of relative quiet over the past few years to move toward peace with the Palestinians. Diskin said Netanyahu acted irresponsibly regarding Iran`s nuclear program and accused him of prioritizing personal concerns over national interests.

He accused Netanyahu who wanted to go down in history as someone who did something of the same proportions as two of his predecessors had done.  He also stated, "I have a very strong feeling that with the Iranian issue Netanyahu is haunted by two former Israeli Prime Ministers, Menachem Begin, who attacked the reactor in Iraq and Ehud Olmert, who, as it is claimed in many places, attacked the reactor in Syria".

While resistance against Netanyahu is on the rise, the recent poles tell the contrary. He is being hinted the most popular and likely to win the election for another term. It seems that power brokers are active and trying to create the hype that unilateral attack on Iran has become a must. This is a policy some radicals are following after having faced repeated defeats from those who are being supported by Iran, be it Lebanon or Syria.

Apprehensions have been expressed repeatedly that as the date for withdrawal of forces from Afghanistan is getting closer, a new front has to be opened to keep the combat soldiers busy. The front has to be opened by attacking Syria or Iran. The only worry is that the Syrian regime could not be toppled in nearly two years and entering into direct encounter with either of the country could prove real punitive.

Over the months Russia and China have been opposing direct encounter in Syria and also resisting impositions of newer economic sanctions on Iran. Independent analysts are of the view that economic sanctions have failed to deter Iranians from their nuclear program, which they claim to be peaceful. While both the United States and Israel consider Iran a major threat, talks about maintaining working relationship for securing peace for Israelis is getting louder. Some critics even go to the extent of saying that any ill-planned attack on Iran could put the very existence of Israel at risk and cause serious damages to the United States also.

Courtesy: The Financial Daily

Internal threats facing Pakistan

Since independence some of the critics have been saying that Pakistan's real enemies are not the external powers but those who are tactfully embedded in almost every walk of life.

The worst evidence of these internal enemies was those who paved way for creation of Bangladesh. Since then there have been various groups working on fragmentation on the basis of sect, language and affiliation with some other countries.

Since Pakistan joined much talked about jihad in Afghanistan religious extremism has become a dominating factor. At times one is completely lost while listening to these groups and looking at their acts. Those who claim to be the stringent followers of Islam are involved in killing and sabotage. These groups have a mindset that they are the true followers of Islam and all others are not.

Therik-e-Taliban often takes pride in accepting responsibility of bomb blasts and sectarian killings. It is often said that they have followers among law enforcing agencies. The statement gets some credence because hardly any killer has been given any punishment. In fact the accused are acquitted because of insufficient evidence. 

While many are disturbed by the recent talks and acts, change in the stance of Pakistan Army demands due diligence. According to media reports Pakistan army has changed its operational priorities for the first time in eleven years and described internal threats as the greatest risk to the country's security.

The ongoing guerrilla war in the tribal area near borders with Afghanistan and armed attacks from different groups and elements on security installations and in cities were mentioned as biggest security threat in the new 'army doctrine.'

The army publishes the doctrine to review its war preparedness and capabilities in order to keep them on the right track. A new chapter, 'sub-conventional warfare' has been included in the "green book" for the first time. Without naming characters in the war, the book talked about few groups and elements and also mentioned cross-border attacks from Afghanistan.

The over 200-page green book is being distributed among military commanders and the military sources said that it would also be shared with the public and will also be posted on the army's website at an appropriate time.

According defence analyst Talat Masood, Pakistan army for the first time has admitted that the real threat is emanating internally and along the western borders and not from India, which was previously considered as number one enemy of the state.

One of prime concerns of Pakistanis is growing terrorist attacks by the groups having safe heavens in Afghanistan. Some of the critics say many banned out fits including Therik-e-Taliban Pakistan and Jundullah have 'other' motives to achieve, the worst being proving that the government has no writ. On this basis sooner than later a campaign for 'change in regime' may be initiated.

So far the groups having vested interest have been calling the incumbent government most corrupt. Lately, the honorable chief justice had remarked 'Balochistan government has lost the legal grounds'. However, instead of moving a non-confidence move, a resolution was passed against the speaker. Earlier the Prime Minister Syed Yousuf Raza Gillani had to step down and the name of sitting prime minister is still on exit control list.

Courtesy: The Financial Daily

Karachi blasts a prelude for change

Situation in Karachi looked far from satisfactory after the second blast on Tuesday; the first one was on Sunday. In fact three provincial capitals, except Punjab came under attack starting Saturday. Whoever may claim the responsibility of these attacks, one point is clear that certain groups are not at all happy with MQM extending any support to Tahir ul Qadri. Imran Khan has been talking about tsunami but Tahir seems to have created real tremors.

As the date for setting up a caretaker government is reaching closer, it seems certain elements wants to create a situation so that elections could be postponed for an indefinite period; on the pretext that situation s not conducive for holding general elections is Pakistan. But a question bothers even the political pundits; can Qadri become a serious threat for other political parties, especially PPP, PML-N and PTI?

Most of the pundits didn't consider Qadri a threat till he held his public meeting at Lahore that attracted a large number of people. Those believing in conspiracy theories were quick to say that Qadri was being supported by 'power brokers'. Even a defamation campaign started against him on the social media. The harsher are comments becoming the greater is the feeling that Qadri has attained a position to influence the next general election and even formation of the interim set up.

Historically, Punjab is considered the stronghold of PML-N, Sindh excluding Karachi and a few other major cities that of PPP and MQM having strong position in urban areas of Sindh. In fact some political pundits say that no party can form government at federal as well as provincial level without the blessing of MQM. In such a scenario if MQM prefers Qadri over other, the situation can get real precarious. Therefore, the power brokers just don't approve MQM getting closer to Qadri.

The gravity of situation became event when President Asif Ali Zardari called an emergency meeting of PPP high ups, including prime minister at Karachi. The general expectation is that the ruling junta will try to create an environment where January 14 onslaught to Islamabad could be stopped. There is growing feeling that a massive movement against the current regime is being initiated and if all other means fail, sabotage activities will become more common. This can pave way for the dismissal of the present government by the President and putting in place an interim government.

In such a scenario the general elections may be deferred and an interim government, comprising of nominees of all the political parties will be installed. A question is also being discussed, in case an interim political set up is created, will President Asif Ali Zardari be able to retain his commanding position.

There are two opinions: 1) President Zardari meeting the fate like Farooq Leghari and Pervez Musharraf or 2) succeeding his commanding position. In either case the interim prime minister has to be a man of confidence of 'power brokers'. However, the only apprehension is who will be elected the new president in case there is a search for an interim president also. One of the probabilities is that Chairman Senate will take over the charge as President but no one can really forecast the composition of interim set up. 

Editorial published in The Financial Daily

Killers on Rampage in Pakistan

Cellular phone use was suspended on Friday (11.00 to 18.00 Pakistan Standard Time) in Karachi (capital of Sindh province) and there were indications of a possible suspension in Peshawar (capital of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province) in Pakistan. Though, no major incident took place on the day killers started their rampage on Saturday.

While the news of killing of personnel from law enforcement agencies has already appeared in Eurasia Review, according to details available in the local media, kidnappers killed 21 of 23 law enforcement personnel in the wee hours of Sunday.

 Personnel from the law enforcing agency were shot dead in a cricket ground near Peshawar’s Jan-e-Khawarr area. These were kidnapped on Thursday after attacks on two posts by militants in the provincial capital. The attackers were wearing uniforms of security forces and were armed with rocket-propelled grenades and automatic weapons.

The spokesman of Therik-e-Taliban for Dara Adamkhel, Mohammad Afridi, has informed a Karachi based newspaper by phone that his group had carried out the attacks.

The government was seeking the help of local tribal elders to rescue the kidnapped officials and a local Jirga was conducting dialogues with the militant group but the talks did not succeed.

In another incident, 15 people have been killed and several others injured after three passenger buses came under attack in Mastung’s Dringarh area of Balochistan. The intensity of blast is evident from a photograph placed at the website of Geo television aired from Karachi.

Initial reports suggested that a suicide bomber rammed an explosive-laden vehicle into the bus. The explosion occurred when the buses, carrying Shia pilgrims from Taftan in Iran to Quetta, reached Mastung. Shias regularly travel to Taftan onwards to perform pilgrimage. One of the buses caught fire as a result of the intensive explosion and was completely destroyed whereas the two other buses also suffered partial damage.

A blast in Peshawar on Sunday injured one person. No casualties or major damage was reported after the blast. The blast occurred at the gate of Shama Cinema near Bacha Khan Chowk in Faqirabad area of Peshawar.

In another incident in the provincial capital of Balochistan, gunmen riding motorcycles opened fire and killed four policemen. The attackers sprayed bullets at police on a routine vehicle patrol.

It may be recalled that Balochistan, rich in oil and gas, is plagued by sectarian violence, a tribal insurgency and attacks by Taliban militants. Gun and bomb attacks frequently target police and security personnel in Balochistan.

In the provincial capital of Sindh, Karachi at least six people were killed when in explosion ripping apart a passenger bus parked near the Karachi Cantonment Railway Station on Saturday evening.

The blast completely destroyed the bus. There are reports that five people have been killed and at least 48 injured in the blast, some of them said to be in critical condition.

To outsiders these incidents may not look connected, but the purpose is common, weaken Pakistan and plunge the country into anarchy.

Therik-e-Taliban is notorious for undertaking attacks on sensitive installations and people belonging to security forces/law enforcing agencies. The latest attempts are also aimed at terrorizing people before Chelum of Imam Hussan, they have attacked Ashurra procession in D. I. Khan.

Killing in Mustung is part of an ongoing genocide of Shias by the perpetrators getting funds from outside. This faction even does not consider Shias to be Muslim, and call them Kafir. This killing is often attributed to a Balochistan based banned outfit Jundullah. This group also undertakes attacks in Iran. Their leader Abdul Rehman Riki was hanged in Iran, after his chartered plane going over Iranian air space was asked to land.

The latest round of blasts and targeted killing in Karachi is attributed to two separate factors: the genocide of Shias and ‘an attempt to free Karachi from the hostage of MQM’. However, residents of Karachi categorically reject both the phenomenon.

Three of the political parties PPP, ANP and MQM, which are also part of the ruling coalition, are of the consensus that groups getting funds and arms from outside are responsible for the killing in Karachi. Some of the critics even go to the extent that a proxy war is being fought in Pakistan.

This article was published in eurasiareview on December 30, 2012 

Pakistan a victim of Geopolitics

Since independence Pakistan has remained the focus of global and regional powers. The country is termed a natural corridor for trade ‑ including energy products ‑ gateway to Central Asia and landlocked Afghanistan. There is a perception that often regimes are installed and toppled in Pakistan by the super powers to achieve their vested interest. This is evident from cold war era to occupation of Afghanistan and from love and hate relationship with India to creation of Taliban (phantom now having many offspring).

At present Pakistan is facing extremely volatile situation, which has become a threat for its own existence. Fighting a proxy war for United States in Afghanistan for nearly four decade has completely destroyed the economic and social fabric of the country. Pakistan is suffering from the influx of foreign militant groups getting funds and arms from different global operators.

Analysts say over the years Pakistan has been towing foreign and military policy of the United States, which has often offended USSR, China, India and Iran. Therefore, one needs to analyze Pakistan’s relationship with Afghanistan, India and Iran, enjoying common borders with the country. It may not be wrong to say that at present Pakistan doesn’t enjoy cordial relation with none of these countries.

Pakistan helped Afghans in averting USSR attack. After the pullout of USSR forces Afghanistan plunged into civil war. It was often alleged that Pushtoons were supported by Pakistan and Northern Alliance was highly annoyed. After 9/11 Pakistan was made to fight Taliban under the US dictate. As the time for withdrawal of Nato forces is getting closer Pakistan once again faces a precarious position.

When British Raj left the subcontinent in 1947 it left a thorn, Kashmir. Since independence India and Pakistan have been living in constant state of war, spending billions of dollars annually on the purchase of conventional as well as non-conventional arms and have also attained the status of atomic powers. However, both the countries suffer from extreme poverty. There seems no probability of reconciliation between the two countries because of presence of hawks on both the sides. Even the trade relations could not be normalized due to Kashmir dispute as Hindus are not ready for another division of Hindustan on the basis of religion.

Pakistan and Iran have enjoyed the best time till toppling of Shah’s rule as both the countries were under the US influence. Iran has been persistently enduring economic sanctions for more than three decades after the Islamic revolution. Pakistan is suffering from severe energy crisis but not allowed to construct Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline or even buy Iranian crude oil under food for oil program. Iran has often complaint that certain outfits, most notorious being Jundullah, having its base in Balochistan province of Pakistan, are involved in cross border terrorism.

Pakistan also faces a difficult situation when Saudi Arabia, under the US pressure asks it to do or not to do certain things. One such example is Saudi Arabia promising to meet Pakistan’s oil requirement if it opts not to buy Iranian oil. There are also allegations and counter allegations that Saudi Arabia and Iran are supporting Sunni and Shia factions in Pakistan. This point is being highlighted by referring to sectarian killings. However, Pakistanis have no doubt that killing is being done by those who are neither Sunni nor Shia. This point got credence when it was discovered that Taliban involved in attack on Peshawar airbase had tattoos on their bodies.

Till today, Pakistan offers the shortest and cost effective route to landlocked Afghanistan, leading to Central Asian countries. Gwadar deep seaport has been constructed in Balochistan province with the financial and technical assistance of China. India often raises its concerns on Chinese presence along Pakistan’s coastal belt. However, India is not only constructing Chabahar port in Iran but also road and rail links up to Central Asia via Afghanistan.

Pakistanis completely fail to understand the duality of US policy. India was asked to withdraw itself from Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline project and also rewarded nuclear technology in return. On top of that it has not been stopped from building port and supporting infrastructure in Iran. Some experts say all this is being done to construct an alternate route once the objective of creation of greater Balochistan is achieved. This new country will be created taking one slice each from Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan.

The level of US pressure on Pakistan can also be gauged from the fact that President, Asif Ali Zardari, on the eleventh hour, cancelled his visit to Tehran and went straight to UK. The new date of his visit to Iran has not been announced as yet. This reminds Pakistani’s of a similar cancelled visit of Prime Minister Liaquat Ali Khan to USSR and he instead went to United States.

It is also on record that Chinese experts working in Pakistan have often come under attack to make them leave Pakistan. Chinese experts working on Gwadar and Thar coal projects have been repeatedly attacked. At one stage it was feared that Chinese will completely withdraw their support for Thar coal mining and power plant.

China has also complaints that some extremist Muslim groups are trying to create disturbance in one of its province bordering with Pakistan. It seems these attempts are made to disrupt trade being done through this land route.

This article was published in eurasiareview on December 27, 2012 

In response following comments have been received:

Ram Iyer

I am an Indian and to be honest met many Pakistanis and very nice people/friends. Similar life, culture, thought process and history. May be some difference in some aspects, which can happen within India between Tamilian and Punjabi (different food, practices, interests) but same nation.

Pakistan needs a deep breath to bunk its 60 year old thinking and re-think. It will have short term pain but absolute long term gain. Wean away from US gradually using nation first policy using calibered adjustments. Build silent bridge with India, Iran, CIS, Russia and ramp up China relationship. Silence on India border and some consistent visit to India from broad spectrum and be blunt/frank on sincerity of change.

If India don’t want another Western invasion of life, then it need to bring that good big brother steps to give sustained multi-year multi-billion dollar aids to all nations around India to grow and grow together. Else, it will be more like nation lost in dreamland than a big growing nation along with China.

Syed Karim

Pakistan is a victim of misguided policies by its rulers. Until recently, Pakistan used terrorism as instrument of state and resorted to asymmetrical warfare against its archenemy India.

Mr. Kazmi stated that “fighting a proxy war for United States in Afghanistan for nearly four decade has completely destroyed the economic and social fabric of the country”. The reverse is true; Pakistan continues to provide logistic support to the Afghan Taliban and is engaged in a proxy war against the United States. The duplicity of Pakistan was exposed to the world when Osama bin Laden was killed in 2011 in a raid by the US Navy Seals in Abbottabad near a military garrison; Pakistan was caught sheltering and harboring the al-Qaeda leader. Pakistan played with fire and is now suffering the consequences.

Mr. Kazmi alluded to “some extremist Muslim groups” in Balochistan harassing Chinese experts in Balochistan. Actually, these are Baloch nationalists fighting for autonomy; rulers of Pakistan are dismissive of their demands and call them “miscreants” or “misguided elements”.

What is the reality of Taliban?

Lately, politicians have come under sever attack of banned outfit Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and the party hard-hit is Awami National Party (ANP). There have been regular attacks that included attempt on the life of its chief Asfand Yar Wali Khan and killing of other party members.

The latest is the assassination of Bashir Ahmed Bilour, a senior provincial minister of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) province; he has received threats in the past. Police officials confirmed that at least eight other people, including a police SHO, Bilour’s personal secretary and ANP workers were killed in the blast that took place near the famous Qissa Khwani Bazaar of Peshawar.

Bashir was bother of Ghulam Ahmed Bilour, a federal minister. One can recollect Ghulam declaring a reward of Rs10 million for the person who kills those responsible for the recently released film about Prophet Hazrat Muhammad (PBUH).

As is the practice local media has started blaring reports that the TTP has accepted responsibility of Bashir’s killing. According to a post placed on the website of a newspaper the proscribed TTP has claimed the responsibility for a suicide attack.

A post on the website of a television channels says TTP’s spokesman for Dara Adamkhel and Khyber Agency, Mohammad Afridi has informed a suicide bomber belonging to his group had attacked the minister.

It was also stated that the TTP had set up a new ‘revenge wing’ and leaders of the ANP and the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) were the prime targets of his group and the attack had been carried out to avenge the killing of an `elder’ of militants, Sheikh Naseeb Khan.

President Asif Ali Zardari and all prominent political leaders of the country have deplored the suicide attack at the ANP meeting. Prime Minister Raja Pervez Ashraf has announced to observe one-day national mourning and said flags would be flown at half-mast on Sunday.

The KP provincial government has announced a three-day while the ANP called for ten-day mourning in honor of the deceased leader. ANP’s Balochistan chapter has called for a strike in Quetta on Sunday. They also have announced to observe three-day mourning in the province.

ANP is coalition partner in the federal and provincial government with PPP and MQM. While PPP and government of Sindh have announced one day each, MQM called for three-day mourning.

No condolence or condemnation message has been issued by from PML-N leader, the ruling party of Punjab till posting of this blog. Leaders of religious parties are also mum.

Karachi was likely to witness some unrest and the day opened with an attack in which at least six persons including the policemen and recruits were injured. The blast took place this morning near Khawaja Ajmernagri police headquarter.

Lately, the TTP has been accepting responsibility of killings and blasts in Pakistan and these reports come from which claim to have received calls from the spokesman of the banned outfit, mostly residing at ‘unknown locations’.

A few points demand immediate deliberations: 1) why media is prompt in announcing the claims of any terrorist attack? 2) Is TTP a reality or phantom created by intelligence agencies both local and foreign? 3) Who is proving arms and funds to these groups? 4) Why the miscreants want to plunge the country into complete anarchy?

Bleak outlook for Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline

Failure to complete Iran-Pakistan (IP) gas pipeline in five decades can be termed the biggest tragedy for the two neighboring countries, one rich in energy and other suffering due to its paucity. The two counties enjoyed extremely cordial relationship with the United States, till the monarchy was toppled in Iran.

While Pakistan has been fighting a US proxy war in Afghanistan for the last four decades, it was neither allowed by the super power to go ahead with IP project nor was it treated at par with India when it came to offering ‘nuclear technology for civilian use’.

While peeping into the history may have many surprises for those who still believe that the pipeline will be constructed, one can safely infer that unless US-Iran relation improves it is ‘hoping against hope’.

Last minute cancellation of visit of Pakistani president to Iran to meet Malala Yousufzai in UK has put the last nail in the coffin, removing that may take decades.

This reminds Pakistanis another horrendous mistake of fifties when visit of Prime Minister Liaquat Ali Khan to USSR was cancelled and he instead went to United States, for which the country had to pay a huge cost.

In the post Islamic revolution era, relationships between Iran and United States have deteriorated because of imposition of economic sanction on the country for more than 32 years. Experts don’t expect any change and hoping that any improvement is day dreaming.

On the contrary some of the conspiracy theories suggest that one day Iran will be punished for not bowing down before the US pressure. A proxy was initiated in Syria more than 20 months ago and another test was conducted through Hamas-Israel encounter but seems the time is not ripe to undertake US-sponsored attack on Iran.

Lately, Pakistani Foreign Minister Hina Rabbani Khar said President Asif Ali Zardari would soon visit Iran and the gas pipeline project would be completed in given time frame. She also said Pakistan and Iran have been enjoying good relations and the present government has further strengthened its ties with the neighbor. However, a closer look at the timeline should remove any ambiguity, if it still prevails.

• The idea was conceived in mid 1950s, the project was conceptualized in 1989, the discussions between Iran and Pakistan started in 1994 and a preliminary agreement was signed in 1995.
• Later on Iran made a proposal to extend the pipeline from Pakistan into India and February 1999, a preliminary agreement was signed between the two countries.
• In February 2007, India and Pakistan agreed to pay Iran US$4.93 per million British thermal units.
• In April 2008, Iran expressed interest in the People's Republic of China's participation in the project. In August 2010, Iran invited Bangladesh to join the project.
•  In 2009, India withdrew from the project over pricing and security issues, and after signing a civilian nuclear deal with the US in 2008. In January 2010, the US asked Pakistan to abandon the project
• On 15 April 2012 it was reported that Saudi Arabia was willing to offer an "alternative package" to Pakistan if the country abandoned its cooperation with Iran.

Imposition of new economic sanctions on Iran clearly suggests that the country is denied the right to export crude oil only to keep Arab producers happy and create a justification for Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline sponsored by the United States.