Kamala Harris getting ready to visit Asia

US Vice President, Kamala Harris's trip to Singapore and Vietnam starting on Sunday will show that the United States is in the region "to stay," a senior administration official said, as Washington seeks to bolster international support to counter China's growing global influence.

Harris will be the most senior US official to visit the region since President Joe Biden took office in January promising to shore up alliances, which the United States considers key to checking Chinese expansion.

A senior White House official told Reuters earlier this month that the vice president's focus would be on defending international rules in the South China Sea, strengthening US regional leadership and expanding security cooperation in the region.

"The administration is ... making clear that we have an enduring commitment to this region, that we're part of the Indo-Pacific and in the region to stay," the official said.

The trip coincides with chaos in Afghanistan following Biden's decision to withdraw US troops after a 20-year war, the planning of which has been criticized at home and abroad.

The official said Harris would continue to work on issues tied to Afghanistan while on her Asia trip.

"It's been an overwhelming focus and priority of the whole team including the vice president ... at the same time; it is also true that Southeast Asia and the Indo-Pacific are really important. And that's why she's going," the official added.

Harris is due in Singapore on Sunday. She will be the first US vice president to visit Vietnam and arrives in the country on Tuesday and departs next Thursday.

During her trip, Harris will meet Singapore's President Halimah Yacob, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong and deliver remarks on a US combat ship visiting Singapore. She will also hold a meeting to discuss supply chain issues with representatives from the private sector and government.

In Hanoi, Vietnam, Harris will meet with leaders including President Ngyuen Xuan Phuc and Prime Minister Pham Ming Chinh and lead the US delegation in launching a regional office for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The visit to Southeast Asia will be Harris' second foreign trip as vice president. In June, she went to Guatemala and Mexico for meetings on the "root causes" of the migrant crisis at the US-Mexico border.

Who is Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar?

Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, Taliban’s top political leader, who made a triumphal return to Afghanistan this week, battled the US and its allies for decades but then signed a landmark peace agreement with the Trump administration.

Baradar is now expected to play a key role in negotiations between the Taliban and officials from the Afghan government that the group deposed in its blitz across the country. Taliban say they seek an “inclusive, Islamic” government and claim they have become more moderate since they last held power.

But many remain skeptical, and all eyes are now on Baradar, who has said little about how the group will govern but has proven pragmatic in the past.

Baradar’s biography charts the arc of the Taliban’s journey from an Islamic militia that battled warlords during the civil war in the 1990s, ruled the country in accordance with a strict interpretation of Islamic law and then waged a two-decade insurgency against the US. His experience also sheds light on the Taliban’s complicated relationship with Pakistan.

Baradar is the only surviving Taliban leader to have been personally appointed deputy by the late Taliban commander Mullah Mohammed Omar, giving Baradar near-legendary status within the movement. He is far more visible than the Taliban’s current supreme leader, Maulawi Hibatullah Akhunzada.

On Tuesday, Baradar landed in the southern Afghan city of Kandahar, the birthplace of the Taliban movement he helped found in the mid-1990s. Ending 20 years of exile, he was thronged by well-wishers as he stepped off a Qatari government aircraft and drove off in a convoy.

Baradar, who is in his early 50s, was born in the southern Uruzgan province. Like others who would eventually become Taliban leaders, he joined the ranks of the CIA- and Pakistan-backed Mujahideen to fight against the Soviet Union during its decade long occupation of the country that ended in 1989.

In the 1990s, the country slid into civil war, with rival Mujahideen battling one another and carving out fiefdoms. Warlords set up brutal protection rackets and checkpoints in which their forces shook down travelers to fund their military activities.

In 1994, Mullah Omar, Baradar and others founded Taliban, which means religious students. The group mainly consisted of clerics and young, pious men, many of whom had been driven from their homes and had known only war. Their unsparing interpretation of Islam unified their ranks and set them apart from the notoriously corrupt warlords.

Baradar fought alongside Mullah Omar as he led Taliban through its seizure of power in 1996 and its return to an insurgency following the 2001 US-led invasion.

During the group’s 1996-2001 rule, the president and governing council were based in Kabul. But Baradar spent most of his time in Kandahar, the spiritual capital of Taliban, and did not have an official government role.

The US invaded Afghanistan after the 9/11 attacks, which had been planned and carried out by Osama bin Laden’s al-Qaida while it was sheltering under Taliban rule. Baradar, Omar and other Taliban leaders fled into neighboring Pakistan.

In the ensuing years, the Taliban were able to organize a potent insurgency based in rugged and semi-autonomous tribal areas along the border. Baradar was arrested in Pakistan’s southern city of Karachi in 2010 in a joint raid by the CIA and Pakistan’s counterterrorism forces.

At the time, he had been making peace overtures to Afghanistan’s then-President Hamid Karzai, but the US was bent on military victory and it appeared that Pakistan wanted to ensure control over any political process. Baradar’s removal empowered more radical leaders within the Taliban who were less open to diplomacy.

Karzai later confirmed the overtures to The Associated Press and said he had twice asked the Americans and the Pakistanis to free Baradar but was rebuffed. Baradar himself refused an offer of release in 2013, apparently because the US and Pakistan conditioned it on his cooperation.

Karzai, who is now involved in talks with the Taliban about shaping the next government, could once again find himself negotiating with Baradar.

By 2018, Taliban had seized effective control over much of Afghanistan’s countryside. The Trump administration, looking for a way out of America’s longest war, persuaded Pakistan to release Baradar that year and began pursuing peace talks with Taliban.

Baradar led the Taliban’s negotiating team in Qatar through several rounds of those talks, culminating in a February 2020 peace agreement. He also met with then-US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.

Under the deal, the Taliban agreed to halt attacks on international forces and prevent Afghanistan from again becoming a haven for terror groups in return for a full U.S. withdrawal, now planned for the end of the month.

Last week, Taliban pushed into the country’s cities, seizing nearly all of the country in matter of days and then rolled virtually unopposed into the capital, Kabul.

In his first comment after the capture of Kabul on Sunday, Baradar acknowledged his surprise, saying that “it was never expected that we will have victory in Afghanistan.”

Wearing a black turban and vest over a white robe, the bespectacled Baradar looked straight into the camera.

“Now comes the test,” he said. “We must meet the challenge of serving and securing our nation, and giving it a stable life going forward.”

Fall of Kabul and implications for Pakistan economy

Taliban which had been making rapid advances across Afghanistan in the wake of US evacuation, were finally able to take control of the capital, Kabul, in what was a rather swift, seamless and somewhat peaceful transition. The development finally puts an end to the uncertainty over the political future of Afghanistan.

In contrast to what had been feared, Taliban seek to present a moderate face by offering general amnesty to masses, preserving the infrastructure deployed in the past 20 years while remaining mostly in compliance with agreements forged with the international community, opening up possibility of international recognition of the new political setup. Further, China, Pakistan and Iran are on the same page on maintaining stability in the Afghanistan region.

Rise of new power in Afghanistan

Major regional powers, China, Iran and Pakistan have all showed a willingness to work with the new setup in Afghanistan and help maintain peace in the region. The geographical and political dynamics have changed significantly since the last time Taliban government was in power in Afghanistan with China establishing its strong presence in the region through economic corridors in Pakistan and also in Iran.

The economic corridors in Pakistan and Iran connect landlocked Afghanistan and the central Asian Republics to the sea ports, thus giving them access to global markets. The integrated economic interests of major powers in the region will help bring these players closer and work together and potentially bring peace and economic prosperity in the region.

Implications for Pakistan

From Pakistan’s vantage the peaceful transition has so far has ended concerns for a civil war that could have resulted in unrest on Pakistan’s western border, increasing law and order risks and potentially putting projects under CPEC into jeopardy. Moreover, the threat of an influx of refugees that could further put pressure on already strained fiscal side has been allayed, somewhat.

Further, with Pakistan likely being the preferred partner for the west amongst the Russia-China-Pakistan-Iran quartet to keep its influence, strengthening of relationship could unlock some concessions in med-to-long run while improving prospects of Pakistan’s status with global agencies (IMF, FATF etc.).

Pakistan’s net trade for FY21 with Afghanistan is reported around US$804 million mostly consisting of food related items while cements, pharma, and aluminum cans (PABC) occupy a minimal share. Analysts do not expect any material impact on cements given the strong robust domestic demand and coal alternatively imported through sea while PABC could witness neutral to negative impact given Afghanistan occupying a significant share in sales mix. The company has ventured into other markets to neutralize the impact. Lastly, with the tight border controls in the near term, Pakistan could witness inflow of smuggled products subsiding, opening up prospects for local players (such as in auto parts tyres, and consumer items).

Investment perspective

The fall of Kabul in the hands of Taliban may not turn out to be as negative as feared earlier, especially if the major powers in the region show willingness to work together. Though, still early at this point, a stable and peaceful Afghanistan will have positive spillover effects for Pakistan and the region at large. The potential positive idiosyncrasies related to lasting peace in the region may help expand market multiples in the medium and long term.

What next in Afghanistan?

The Taliban’s swift takeover of Afghanistan has set off a chain reaction of chaos just two weeks before the US was set to officially withdraw the last of its troops in the country.

The fall of Kabul on Sunday came after a week of lightning-fast territorial gains and crumbling government forces that could not hold off the Islamist group that ruled Afghanistan before the arrival of American forces in 2001. Americans, as well as Afghan civilians who worked with the US government, are now scrambling to get out of the country.

While President Biden is standing by his decision to withdraw US troops, he acknowledged Monday that the situation “did unfold more quickly than we’d anticipated.”

Here are the five takeaways from the collapse of the Afghan government and Taliban takeover:

Evacuation has turned desperate 

The scene at Kabul’s international airport descended into chaos Monday as military and civilian flights stalled on the tarmac when thousands of Afghan civilians flooded the runway in desperate search of a way out.

Photos and videos show people surrounding planes, with dozens of them clinging to a US C-17 transport aircraft or running beside it as it tried to take off. In another video, several Afghans were seen falling off the plane as it left the runway.

The surge of panicked civilians grew so quickly that the US military, in the midst of evacuating American personnel, had to halt flights for several hours.

The scene also prompted the Pentagon to send thousands more US troops to the country to help secure the airport, bumping the US military presence from 1,000 to 6,000 in a matter of days to support the evacuation.

At the U.S. Embassy in Kabul, all American personnel were evacuated, leaving unguarded a building that cost the United States nearly US$800 million to construct, according to the State Department. 

Elsewhere in the capital, Taliban fighters went door to door looking for any men who served in the Afghan Special Forces or helped the US military, Fox News reported.

The Taliban has said it would not interfere with US evacuation efforts, but that’s just one of many hurdles to getting tens of thousands of Afghan civilians out of the country. 

The US has pledged to assist more than 80,000 people who qualify for special immigrant visas meant to help Afghans, and their family members, who worked with the US government.

 “The idea that visa processing can provide protection as the country is crumbling and is now in the hands of the Taliban ignores the grim reality on the ground,” said Krish O'Mara Vignarajah, president of Lutheran Immigration and Refugee Service, which will help resettle Afghan evacuees.

Afghan women, girls once more at risk 

The United States had long touted gains made in women's rights in Afghanistan as one of the main accomplishments in the country over the past two decades.

But the Taliban takeover means women and girls are once again at risk of losing their freedoms.

From 1996 to 2001, when the Taliban controlled the country and ruled with an extreme interpretation of Islamic law, women and girls were prohibited from attending school, working or leaving their homes unless accompanied by a man. Women were also prohibited from driving and required to cover most of their body, including their face.

Those who broke the rules were sometimes subjected to humiliation and public beatings.

On Monday, CNN’s Clarissa Ward reported that of the women she saw outside their homes in Kabul, many were dressed more conservatively than they were just a week ago.

Taliban leaders, during failed peace talks over the last several years, have assured Western officials that women would be given equal rights as granted by Islam, though many, including numerous US lawmakers, have expressed serious doubts.

“There must be an immediate expansion of the refugee program for Afghan women seeking asylum, whose lives are in jeopardy as the Taliban resumes control and turns back the clock on 20 years of progress for women’s rights. A failure to act now will seal their fate, and the generation of girls who grew up with freedoms, education and dreams of building their country’s future will die with them,” Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.), said in a statement Monday.

In the Pentagon’s press briefing room on Monday afternoon, a female Afghan journalist became emotional over the Taliban takeover of her country and the fate of women and girls there. 

“I'm very upset today because Afghan women didn't expect that overnight all the Taliban [would come],” she said. “They took off my flag. ... Everybody is upset, especially women.”

China, Russia are prepared to move in

While the United States continues to pull out of Afghanistan, China and Russia appear ready to move in, signaling openness to working with the Taliban.

Zamir Kabulov, Moscow’s representative in Kabul, said Russia would not evacuate its embassy in Kabul and would “stay in contact” with Taliban officials in Doha “to work out a permanent mechanism of ensuring safety of our embassy.” 

China, meanwhile, which met with Taliban leaders last month in Beijing, called for a “smooth transition” in Afghanistan. The country also said it is willing to seek “good-neighborliness and friendly cooperation” with the Taliban, signaling it may recognize them as a legitimate government. 

It remains unclear how China's and Russia's approaches to Afghanistan could either hamper or bolster U.S. efforts in the region.

Biden on Monday said Beijing and Moscow “would love nothing more than for the United States to continue to funnel billions of dollars in resources and attention into stabilizing Afghanistan indefinitely.”

Terrorist groups have room to reemerge

The Pentagon is already warning that terrorist groups based in Afghanistan could regain footholds more quickly than expected with the Taliban back in control.

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin wants to look at whether groups such as al Qaeda and the Islamic State will be able to strengthen after 20 years of being on the run, Pentagon press secretary John Kirby said Monday.

“The secretary certainly believes that in light of recent events that a reassessment of the possibilities for reconstitution of terrorist networks inside Afghanistan is warranted,” Kirby said.

But he added that “we’re in no position at this point just one day after the events in Kabul to make a firm judgment either way or what that's going to look like” and that it's “way too early to make assessments and judgments about what the counterterrorism threat” is going to be. 

Members of al Qaeda who participated in the 9/11 attacks had trained in Afghanistan, making the country a primary target after the terrorist attacks were carried out. 

Last week, thousands of Taliban, al Qaeda and ISIS prisoners were reportedly released from Bagram air base after the Taliban took over the hub of the US war effort.

Lawmakers have been dubious of the Biden administration’s ability to keep terrorists at bay without U.S. troops in the country. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) said recently it “would be very very difficult” for Washington to do exactly that.

“I think Afghanistan is lost. Every terrorist around the world is cheering in Syria, in Yemen, in Africa. They've watched the Taliban ... defeat America in effect,” McConnell said during a press conference in Kentucky.

The region is on shakier ground 

The Taliban’s takeover means Afghan citizens are streaming across the border to neighboring countries, and beyond, to get out of the country through any means.

The humanitarian disaster, in which refugees have fled to countries such as Tajikistan, Turkey, Pakistan and Uzbekistan, has already led to strained U.S. relations with regional partners.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan on Sunday pledged to increase diplomatic and security efforts to prevent a rush of Afghan refugees into his country, warning that the Taliban’s takeover would mean a refugee crisis.

“Turkey is facing a growing migration wave of Afghans transiting through Iran,” Erdoğan said alongside Pakistan's president, Arif Alvi, who is also working to staunch the flow. “We will continue to make efforts to bring stability to the region, starting with Afghanistan.”

Additionally, the quick and chaotic US withdrawal from Afghanistan is likely to dent America's position on the world stage and undermine efforts to bolster democracy in the region.