Iran “made a big mistake – and it will pay for it,” warned Israeli
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. “We will keep to the rule we have
determined: Whoever attacks us – we attack them.” US National Security Advisor
Jake Sullivan said that there would be “severe consequences” for
Iran’s “significant escalation.”
Iran’s second direct attack on Israel in five months was
retaliation for Israel’s killing of three men:
·
Ismail Haniyeh, the Hamas political chief who
was killed on July 31 in Tehran
·
Hassan Nasrallah, the Hezbollah leader who was
killed on September 27 in Beirut
·
Brig. Gen. Seyyed Abbas Nilforoushan, the
Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commander who was killed in the same
airstrike in Beirut
Reportedly, most of the Iranian missiles were intercepted by
Israeli forces or US Navy destroyers or landed in open
areas.
Israel’s layered air defenses include the Arrow 2 and Arrow
3, which are designed to intercept ballistic missiles.
Jordanian forces also downed missiles.
Several missiles impacted in central and
southern Israel but caused minimal damage. Two Israelis were slightly injured
by shrapnel in Tel Aviv. But no Israeli fatalities were reported. One
Palestinian civilian in the West Bank city of Jericho was also killed.
Iran’s primary targets appeared to be the headquarters of
the Mossad spy agency in Tel Aviv, Tel Nof Air base in central Israel, and
Nevatim Air Base in the southern Negev Desert, which houses advanced F-35
warplanes.
Iran said that Hatzerim Air Base in the Negev Desert was
also a target. Some of the bases were hit, but no aircraft,
munitions or critical infrastructure were damaged.
The
attack “appears to have been defeated and ineffective, and this is testament to
Israeli military capability and US military,” President Joe Biden told reporters
on October 01.
Iranian officials claimed that the attack, dubbed Operation
True Promise 2, was a resounding success. The IRGC said that 90 percent of
the missiles hit their targets.
President Masoud Pezeshkian boasted that Israel’s
air defenses were “more fragile than glass” and vowed a “more crushing
response” to any retaliation.
Iran’s mission to the United Nations said that the
assault was a “legal, rational, and legitimate response” to what it labeled as
“terrorist attacks” by Israel. Iranians gathered to show their support for the
armed forces on October 01 and 02 in Tehran and in the provinces.
The attack, dubbed Operation True Promise 2, appeared to be
Iran’s attempt to establish deterrence against Israeli attacks on its
territory as well as its allies in the so-called “Axis of Resistance.”
The death of Nasrallah following devastating strikes on
Hezbollah commanders, weapons and infrastructure was a huge blow to Iran’s
longstanding “forward defense” doctrine.
For decades, the Islamic Republic has relied on its militia
allies across the Middle East to pressure Israel and deter strikes on Iranian
soil. Hezbollah — sitting on Israel’s northern border with an arsenal of
rockets, missiles and drones — was the centerpiece of this strategy.
Operation True Promise 2 was a follow-on to Tehran’s April
13-14 unprecedented assault on Israel, Operation True Promise.
The first attack was retaliation for Israel’s April 01
airstrike on Iran’s diplomatic mission in Damascus that killed three
Revolutionary Guards generals as well as other military officials.
The October attack was approximately twice the size of the
April assault in terms of scope, according to an initial Pentagon
assessment.
Iran also exclusively fired ballistic missiles,
including advanced Fattah-1 and Kheibar Sheykan models, which can travel to
Israel within 12 minutes and are difficult to intercept.
The April attack included a wider variety of weapons but was
easier for Israel to repel.
Iran launched 170 suicide drones, more than 120
ballistic missiles, including older types, and more than 30 cruise missiles.
Israel
reported that 99 percent of the weapons were shot down or intercepted before
even reaching Israel, with help from US, Jordanian and other unnamed regional
players.
Cruise missiles, which take some two hours to
reach Israel, and drones, which can take up to nine hours to reach Israel, are
easier to shoot down and allow more time for defensive preparations.
Israel retaliated on April 19 with a strike that was calibrated
to avoid further escalation but also send Iran a clear message.
Israeli warplanes, from outside of Iranian airspace,
reportedly fired three missiles at an air defense radar system, part
of the security umbrella over the Natanz nuclear facility. Not only did the
missiles damage the target, they went undetected.
Courtesy: US Institute of Peace
