It seems certain that the United States will not impose any sanctions
on movement of Afghan transit goods through Iranian port Chabahar. This exemption
will be aimed at consolidating Afghan-Indian economic relations.
The port has
been constructed with the Indian assistance to boost trade between one of the
largest regional economies, India, and landlocked and war ridden Afghanistan.
The exemption will be aimed at facilitating Afghanistan in
reducing its dependence on Pakistan. If a contrary decision is made, it will
increase the transit costs of Indian commodities and put further restrictions
on Afghan merchants.
Some analysts believe reveal that imposing sanctions on Iran
as the most secured and less expensive access route for Afghanistan implies
imposing sanctions on Afghanistan as well.
As far as the India is concerned, the significant point is
that the India’s commodities to be transit to Afghanistan are not extensive and
voluminous enough to rationalize marine and road transportation expenses and to
create a significant growth in India’s balance of trade.
Indian analysts are of the view that bearing in mind the
trade volume of Afghanistan, Russia and Central Asian countries which altogether are more
than 16 million tons and the insignificant share of Afghanistan, it could be
concluded that without making possible the transportation of all India’s
merchandise to above mentioned countries through Chabahar Port, the exemption
of this port will not make any noticeable change in India’s trade.
Therefore, Chabahar Port’s exemption will only be a
competitive advantage for India, if all Indian merchandise toward Afghanistan,
Russia and Central Asian countries could be transported through Chabahar Port without any
restriction in banking and insurance transactions.
The noteworthy point about Afghanistan is that the exemption
of Chabahar Port will only be fruitful, if there is no restriction on entering
and leaving Chabahar Port for vessels carrying Afghanistan’s merchandise; as
well as commercial transactions of cargo owners, merchants and shipping lines,
particularly banking transactions are done without limitation.
