The Bangladesh Army has emerged as a
pivotal, though discreet, actor in this phase. During the upheaval that led to
the fall of Sheikh Hasina’s government, the military refrained from using force
against protesters and facilitated the installation of an interim administration.
Officially, the army insists it has no political ambitions. Yet its role in
maintaining security and stabilizing state institutions gives it considerable
behind-the-scenes influence over the transition.
Equally significant is the role of the student
fraternity. What began as protests against unemployment, corruption, and
governance failures evolved into a nationwide movement that altered the
political landscape. Some leaders of these protests have now entered formal
politics, signaling a rare shift from street agitation to electoral
participation. Whether this energy translates into sustained political
organization remains an open question.
The Awami League, long synonymous
with power under Sheikh Hasina, finds itself on the margins. Legal proceedings
against its leadership and its exclusion from the electoral process have
sparked debate about political accountability versus inclusivity. While
supporters argue the measures are necessary to reset governance, critics warn
that sidelining a major party risk narrowing democratic choice.
The opposition space is largely occupied by
the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP). Following the death of former
prime minister Khaleda Zia, leadership influence rests primarily with her son, Tarique
Rahman, who continues to shape party strategy from abroad. The BNP faces
the challenge of converting opportunity into coherence after years of political
disruption.
Externally, India is closely
watching developments, given its strategic, economic, and security interests in
Bangladesh. The United States remains engaged through diplomatic
pressure and advocacy for a transparent electoral process. By contrast, there
is no credible evidence of direct Pakistani influence, despite
occasional rhetorical references in domestic discourse.
Ultimately, this election is less about
personalities and more about institutions. Bangladesh’s real challenge lies in
whether power can be contested through ballots rather than barricades, and
whether the promise of democratic renewal can outlast the politics of upheaval.
