Rising diesel exports to Europe

Oil traders are ramping up diesel exports from Asia and the Middle East to Europe in October to profit from a wide price gap between the regions as weeks-long strikes at French refineries have tightened stocks, although a steep backwardation may cap volumes, according to trade sources and shipping data.

The price spread between front-month Singapore 10 ppm sulphur gasoil swaps and the ICE low sulphur gasoil futures contract, also known as exchange of futures for swaps (EFS) , was close to minus US$150 a ton on Wednesday, versus minus US$29 a year ago, data on Refinitiv Eikon showed, making it attractive for traders to send oil to Europe.

"East of Suez is sending everything they can ship... it's just a question of how much China exports in November," a Europe-based trader said.

For October, around 289,000 tons of gasoil will be loaded from South Korea and China to northwest Europe, up from 137,500 tons in September, ship tracking data from Refinitiv showed.

Exports from India and the Middle East for October to northwest Europe were at around 480,000 tons and 834,000 tons respectively, as compared to 361,000 tons and 511,310 tons a month ago, the data showed.

The trader estimated that Europe may import about 3 million tons (750,000-850,000 barrels per day) from east of Suez in November, of which the Middle East could account for two-third of the volume. Traders expect the bulk of supplies to Europe to come from India and the Middle East, on shorter shipping times.

Asia's top fuel exporters in South Korea and Taiwan have issued a flurry of spot tenders this month, while China will also step up diesel exports after Beijing increased allocation.

However, outages at TotalEnergies' refineries in France caused by worker strikes since September have led prompt diesel prices to surge versus those in future months, a market structure known as backwardation, posing risks to the value of oil cargoes that travel over long distance such as from Asia to Europe.

Steep backwardation, which is already deterring traders from storing diesel globally, may prevent the much-needed heating fuel from reaching Europe this winter as the region is scaling back on imports from top supplier Russia ahead of a European Union embargo in February.

"Some end consumers were stockpiling Russian diesel but now with French strikes, the market has tightened up and we have brutal backwardation," a Europe-based trader said.

"So there is a big commercial incentive to draw stocks, which will make it worse to buy diesel."

Northwest European diesel barge profit margins rose to over US$83 a barrel on Tuesday, a record high, amid supply tightness.

Already soaring diesel prices in the United States have led traders to divert several cargoes heading from the Middle East to Europe to the New York harbour area, further constraining supplies in Europe.

"European gasoil cracks could come down even further up to US$15 a barrel once the strikes end, making it risky for Asian barrels to head over here even on a prompt loading basis given the strong backwardation, although the arbitrage is technically open on paper," said Mark Williams, a research director at Wood Mackenzie.

 

Record barrels of Russian oil floating in seas

According to a Reuters report, some 62 million barrels of Russian crude oil are floating in vessels at seas, as traders struggle to find buyers.

The United States and other countries have banned imports of Russian crude and oil products alleging its invasion of Ukraine and others have avoided acquiring cargoes out of fear of future sanctions. The European Commission is considering an embargo of Russian oil.

The volume of Urals crude oil on the water is triple the pre-war average, even as Russian seaborne oil exports fell to 6.7 million barrels per day (bpd) in May, down about 15% from the 7.9 bpd in February this year.

"The headline numbers, showing Russian exports are still relatively strong, don't tell the full story," said Houston-based energy strategist Clay Seigle. "Russian oil at sea is continuing to accumulate."

The number of Urals cargoes at sea with no set destination is 15% of the total, also a new high, Seigle added. Some of the oil could be in transit to undisclosed buyers, while others could be unsold cargoes.

Most barrels of Russian crude oil have headed to Asia, mainly India and China, while volumes to Europe have also ticked up ahead of a ban

China a key buyer

China is quietly ramping up purchases of oil from Russia at bargain prices, according to shipping data and oil traders who spoke to Reuters, filling the vacuum left by Western buyers backing away from business with Russia after its invasion of Ukraine in February.

The move by the world's biggest oil importer comes a month after it initially cut back on Russian supplies, for fear of appearing to openly support Moscow and potentially exposing its state oil giants to sanctions.

China's seaborne Russian oil imports will jump to a near-record 1.1 million barrels per day (bpd) in May, up from 750,000 bpd in the first quarter and 800,000 bpd in 2021.

Unipec, the trading arm of Asia's top refiner Sinopec Corp, is leading the purchases, along with Zhenhua Oil, a unit of China's defense conglomerate Norinco, according to shipping data. Livna Shipping, a Hong Kong-registered firm, has also recently emerged as a major shipper of Russian oil into China, the traders said.

These firms are filling the hole left by western buyers after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which Russia calls a "special military operation."

The United States, Britain and some other key oil buyers banned imports of Russian oil shortly after the invasion. The European Union is finalizing a further round of sanctions, including a ban on Russian oil purchases. Many European refiners have already stopped buying from Russia for fear of running afoul of sanctions or drawing negative publicity.

Vitol and Trafigura, two of the world's biggest commodity traders, phased out purchases from Rosneft, Russia's biggest oil producer, ahead of an EU rule that came into effect on May 15 barring purchases unless "strictly necessary" to secure the EU's energy needs.

The situation began taking a drastic turn after the exit of Vitol and Trafigura that created a vacuum, which could only be filled by companies that can provide value and are trusted by their Russian counterparts.

The low price of Russia's oil – spot differentials are about US$29 less per barrel compared with before the invasion, according to traders - is a boon for China's refiners as they face shrinking margins in a slowing economy. The price is well below competing barrels from the Middle East, Africa, Europe and the United States.