The implicit demand from Washington appears to be nothing
short of Iran’s unconditional surrender. Tehran, however, has shown no
willingness to capitulate. On the contrary, US efforts to bring Iran to its
knees has demonstrated Iranian resilience and have transformed it into an even
more formidable regional power.
Iran’s ability to inflict significant losses on US military bases
in the Middle East and threaten strategic assets of America’s Arab allies
appears to have strengthened with the passage of time. This has potentially
altered the regional balance of power.
The Strait of Hormuz has consequently become the most
critical pressure point. The US naval blockade and restrictions affecting
access to the Red Sea cannot be viewed solely as an attempt to squeeze Iran
economically. These also threaten the oil exports of Arab Gulf producers,
creating an uncomfortable dilemma for America’s regional partners.
There is another dimension that deserves attention - the
survival of US shale-oil producers. A prolonged conflict and the resulting
disruption to Middle Eastern oil supplies can keep crude prices elevated. Many
high-cost US shale producers could come under severe financial pressure if oil
prices fall below around US$65 a barrel. This creates a possible economic
incentive for Washington to avoid a rapid de-escalation.
Iran’s latest demands underline the widening gap between the
two sides. Tehran has called for an end to the naval blockade, lifting of
sanctions, withdrawal of US forces from the region and compensation for
war-related losses. At the same time, Washington insists that diplomatic,
economic and military pressure will continue until it secures what it considers
an acceptable outcome.
But with every passing day, the strategic equation may be
shifting: America is exhausting resources while Iran is gaining resilience,
experience and leverage.
The greatest loser of this war could ultimately be the
superpower itself. Further escalation risks damaging America’s credibility,
encouraging Arab partners to reconsider existing security arrangements and
intensifying pressure for the withdrawal of US forces from the region.
A superpower does not lose only when it is defeated on the
battlefield; it can also lose when the cost of pursuing victory becomes greater
than the benefits of achieving it.
