Iran is already gearing up for a return of its crude to international markets. The country last year announced production ramp-up plans. This week, media reported that officials from the state-owned National Iranian Oil Company had visited South Korea to discuss supply deals with local refiners.
If a deal is reached on Iran’s nuclear program, the country could add 500,000 bpd to global oil supply between April and May. According to Rystad Energy analyst Louise Dickson, Iran can ramp up production very quickly, in a matter of four to six months, and it also has substantial amounts of oil in storage to offer on international markets if sanctions are lifted
A potential agreement about the United States and Iran returning to the so-called nuclear deal looks close, according to an OPEC+ source.
“It is very likely OPEC will adjust Iran into the deal, as there is no other option,” the source told Reuters.
Over the past few days, there have been hints from diplomats that a deal on reviving the nuclear agreement is indeed close, which pushed oil prices lower.
Iran’s main negotiator, Ali Bagheri Kani, tweeted late on Wednesday. “After weeks of intensive talks, we are closer than ever to an agreement; nothing is agreed until everything is agreed, though. Our negotiating partners need to be realistic, avoid intransigence and heed lessons of past four years. Time for their serious decisions.”
In case a deal is reached, the United States has said that the window of reaching an agreement is closing fast—Iran could return some 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd) to the market within several months after the US lifts sanctions on its oil exports.
According to diplomats who spoke to Reuters, a draft of an agreement being discussed would put the main sanction-lifting stage, including oil exports, at a later stage, while releasing Western prisoners held in Iran and unfreezing Iranian funds would come first.
In the event of an agreement, OPEC+ would look to include Iran—currently exempted from all OPEC+ pact quotas—in the deal, Reuters’ source says.
Iran, for its part, will likely seek first to restore its oil production and exports, but it will also likely agree to a quota after talks with OPEC+, a source with knowledge of Iran’s thinking told Reuters.
It is looking increasingly likely that a new nuclear deal with Iran will be reached and sanctions on its oil industry will be lifted.
Iran would likely want to restore production to near pre-sanctions levels before joining any such agreement
