The Board of
Directors of Oil and Gas Development Company Limited (OGDC) is scheduled to
meet on 24th October to review financial results for 1QFY15. According
to AKD Securities OGDC is likely to post profit after tax of Rs32.4 billion
(EPS: Rs7.54) for the quarter, down by 3%YoY as compared to net profit of Rs33.6
billion (EPS: Rs7.81) posted for the corresponding quarter last year. Despite
the expected 3%YoY and 2%YoY increase in oil and gas production, OGDC's
earnings are expected to remain subdued due to 1) appreciation of Pak Rupee
against the US$ by 3%YoY, 2) sharp fall in international oil prices and 3) expected
30% decline in other income. Better production flows from Tal block remained
the main impetus behind augmented oil and gas production. Topline of the
Company is expected to grow by 3%YoY due to 5%YoY decline in average crude oil
prices responsible for the relatively sluggish topline growth despite increase
in production. During the period under review crude oil prices were realized at
US$103.4/bbl as against US$108.6/bbl for 1QFY14. OGDC has shed 16.5%CYTD in
response to both lower international oil prices and delay in the sale of
Government of Pakistan (GoP) stake. Analysts expect some stability in the stock
price with successful completion of its secondary offer. OPEC is scheduled to
meet in November and any positive development on the oil pricing front in that
meeting can prove to be a near-term price catalyst for the scrip.
