Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s recent phone call with
his Iranian counterpart captured this posture succinctly. By opposing the “use
or threat of force” and reaffirming dialogue over coercion, Beijing restated
principles it has upheld for decades. What stood out was what China chose not
to do: no sharp condemnation of Washington, no announcement of countermeasures,
and no promise of tangible intervention.
This muted response is consistent with China’s long-standing
policy of non-interference. Beijing has historically avoided entanglement in
the internal politics of partner states, whether governed by hardliners or
reformists. For China, regime type is secondary to sovereignty, stability, and
continuity of cooperation. Iran is no exception.
Economic realities reinforce this caution. China buys over
80 percent of Iran’s oil exports and remains the world’s largest crude
importer. Yet Beijing is acutely aware that overt political or security
involvement could invite harsher Western sanctions at a time when it is already
under pressure from Washington. Restraint, therefore, is not passivity but risk
management.
Crucially, China has spent decades diversifying its energy
sources precisely to reduce overdependence on politically volatile suppliers.
As long as Iranian instability does not escalate into a blockade of the Strait
of Hormuz or a collapse of Iran’s oil infrastructure, Beijing can absorb the
shock. Iran’s reliance on shadow fleets and grey-zone trade has so far kept
energy flows intact.
Beijing also appears relaxed about Iran’s internal political
trajectory. A more pragmatic or even West-leaning leadership in Tehran would
not necessarily undermine Chinese interests. Iran’s economic needs and China’s
market size ensure a continued relationship, even if discounted oil disappears.
At a broader level, China is recalibrating its Middle East
strategy. While its economic footprint is expanding amid a relative decline in
US influence, Beijing remains unwilling to assume security responsibilities or
confront Washington head-on. Verbal opposition, strategic ambiguity, and
economic engagement remain its preferred tools.
In short, China is playing the long game. Its silence is not
absence, but a calculated choice to protect interests without escalation — a
reminder that in geopolitics, restraint can be as strategic as confrontation.
