The warning comes as Russian gas exports to the continent have decreased in capacity and amid maintenance work on the main pipeline to Germany (Nord Stream 1). The IEA fears that further gas cuts cannot be ruled out.
Experts argue the European Union is struggling to secure alternatives to Russian supplies but has approved another 500 million euros in arms to Ukraine, whereby a push towards a peace settlement may save the bloc a lot of breathing space on its gas stocks, instead of the panic it finds itself in.
The IEA itself which serves as the west’s energy watchdog says efforts to boost supplies are still falling short and the 27-member bloc needs stricter measures, such as restricting air conditioning demand (during the current heat wave in Europe) and auctioning gas supplies to industry.
The IEA has acknowledged there has not been enough progress by the EU to ween itself of Russian gas especially on the demand side, to prevent Europe from finding itself in an incredibly precarious situation.
It says any further cuts of Russian natural gas flows to Europe, combined with other recent supply disruptions, are a red alert for the European Union, adding that as we get closer to next winter, we are getting a clearer sense of what Russia may do next. The next few months will be critical, the organization warned.
Moscow has strongly rejected any allegations that it has been using its gas supplies for political purposes. Experts have also argued that it is not in the Kremlin’s interest to cut gas supplies as Russia would lose out financially.
Nevertheless, Brussels the headquarters of the EU is reportedly preparing to tell the bloc members to cut gas consumption immediately, warning that without increased preservation the continent risks running short of the vital commodity this winter.
Reports have surfaced that the European Commission will provide members with voluntary gas reduction targets by next week, which cautions that targets will be made mandatory in the event of severe disruption to supplies.
Acting jointly now will be less disruptive and costly, facilitating solidarity and avoiding the need for unplanned and uncoordinated actions later in a possible crisis situation with gas reserves running low.
The IEA warns that efforts to diversify away from Russian gas are no longer enough on their own and that Europe faces the real prospect of rationing its energy unless demand is restricted in order for storage facilities to be filled ahead of the long winter season.
Birol says he has spoken to EU officials urging them to do all they can right now to prepare for a long, hard winter. He said, “Europe is now forced to operate in a constant state of uncertainty over Russian gas supplies, warning that we can’t rule out a complete cut-off.
The irony is that the EU initiated gas crisis by imposing unprecedented economic sanctions on Russia including hundreds of individuals, businesses, companies, entities, flights, and oil by the end of 2022. In March the bloc said it would reduce gas imports by two-thirds within a year, but there have been disagreements among EU members about this.
The EU is evidently heavily reliant on Russian gas, yet it has threatened Moscow and at the same time, appears to have shot itself in the foot with its sanctions policy.
An EU last week recommended limiting central heating and cooling in buildings as well as the exemption of coal power stations from its target of emissions reductions.
One EU official has said talks are ongoing over what punitive measures can be enforced if mandatory targets set by the EU to cut gas are not met among member states.
Europe had relied on Russia for about 40% of its gas but since Russia’s military intervention in Ukraine, Western sanctions have disrupted supplies. The continent imported a total of 155 billion cubic meters of gas from Russia in 2021 and consumes close to 400 billion cubic meters of gas in total during a normal year.
A new EU gas plan issues a warning that continued cuts to Russian gas supplies could lead to a drop in the bloc’s GDP by up to 1.5%, depending on the level of disruption.
Birol said, “Flows have been halted through Nord Stream [1], the biggest single gas pipeline between Russia and Europe, for what Russia says is planned maintenance that is due to end on July 21, 2022. Russia had already significantly reduced the flows coming through Nord Stream in June, and it remains unclear whether they will resume and if so, at what level, after the stipulated deadline.”
The maintenance work is routine procedure that is carried out every year and it’s not uncommon that the work would take longer than ten days. Kremlin spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, has rejected accusations that Russia would use its gas exports to put pressure on European governments.
Nevertheless, the IEA has offered thorough guidelines and steps to the EU on how to fill European gas storage to adequate levels before winter; starting with the reduction of Europe’s current gas consumption, and putting the saved gas into storage.
Among the advice is to bring down household electricity demand by setting cooling standards and controls. Government and public buildings should take the lead on this to set an example while campaigns should encourage behavioral changes among consumers.
If the measures proposed by the IEA are not implemented now, Europe will be in an extremely vulnerable position and could well face much more drastic cuts and curtailments later on,” the agency warned.
It goes on to say that in addition to the measures proposed, “European governments also need to prepare the people of Europe for what may be coming. Public awareness campaigns in the context of an energy crisis have been successful previously in reducing short-term energy demand by several percent.”
According to the IEA, since Russia’s military operation in Ukraine, the amount of revenue that Moscow has collected from exporting oil and gas to Europe has doubled compared with the average of recent years – to US$95 billion.
“The increase in Russia’s oil and gas export revenues in just the last five months is almost three times what it typically makes from exporting gas to Europe over an entire winter.” the IEA says.
The agency warns that should Russia decide to completely cut off gas supplies before Europe can get its storage levels up to 90%, the situation will be even more grave and challenging.
The warnings and plans for Europe to cope with enough heat in the winter offers an idea on how reliant the EU is on Russian gas and how fragile the situation may become in wintertime.
Cool heads are required at such a delicate time. Perhaps a peace deal, which the US-led NATO alliance doesn’t appear to care about, is just what’s needed.
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