Is sending heavy bombers to Middle East part of pressurizing Iran?

Reportedly, the United States has sent heavy bombers to the Middle East in an apparent threat to Iran, amid swirling speculation that US President Donald Trump plans to take military action against its foe before President-elect Joe Biden enters office. US Central Command said the planes were sent into the region “to deter aggression and reassure US partners and allies.”

In a highly irregular move, the B-52H planes were seen flying toward Israeli airspace on Saturday en route to the base where they will be stationed, likely in Qatar. The aircraft were spotted on civilian tracking software approaching Israel before they apparently turned off their transponders, rendering them invisible on those applications.

It was the third time in the past year and a half that B-52 bombers, which are capable of carrying nuclear weapons and other powerful munitions, have been deployed to the region in tacit threats to Iran.

In previous cases, the bombers were not seen flying through Israeli airspace. It was not immediately clear what accounted for the change in route.

The planes were ordered on short notice to fly to the Middle East nonstop from their home base in North Dakota, refueling along the way in mid-air. The bombers were accompanied on the mission by F-15 and F-16 fighter jets, as well as KC-10 and KC-135 refueling planes, said US Central Command (CENTCOM).

“The ability to quickly move forces into, out of and around the theater to seize, retain and exploit the initiative is the key to deterring potential aggression,” Lt. Gen. Greg Guillot, commander of the US military’s 9th Air Force, said in a statement.

The general said deploying bombers to the region allows their crews to better acquaint themselves with the area and work better with local units.

“These missions help bomber aircrews gain familiarity with the region’s airspace and command and control functions and allow them to integrate with the theater’s US and partner air assets, increasing the combined force’s overall readiness,” Guillot said.

The US has previously deployed B-52 bombers to the region during periods of heightened tensions. This occurred in early 2020 after the US killed top Iranian commander Qassem Soleimani in an airstrike in Iraq. The strategic aircraft were also sent to the region in May 2019, when Iran allegedly attacked a number of US allies in the Persian Gulf and shot down an American spy drone that flew near its airspace.

The deployment of the long-range heavy bombers came amid reports that the Trump administration — and Israel — planned to carry out military operations against Iran before Biden enters office. The US president-elect is expected to take a somewhat softer, more diplomatic approach than Trump, who pulled out of the 2015 nuclear deal world powers signed with Iran and employed a so-called “maximum pressure” campaign of heavy economic sanctions against the Islamic Republic.

Though, analysts say this effort has created leverage for future negotiations, the tactic has not yet borne fruit in terms of halting Iran’s nuclear efforts — indeed the Islamic Republic has amassed far more nuclear material and at higher levels of enrichment under the campaign — nor has it curbed Tehran’s regional hegemony ambitions.

Biden, who was Vice President to Barrack Obama when the 2015 accord was signed, has said that he plans to return to the agreement as a basis for further negotiations with Iran.

The Trump administration is reportedly planning a bevy of wide-ranging sanctions on Iran to make it more difficult for the incoming administration to rejoin the nuclear deal.

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo visited the region over the past week, including a stop in Israel, in which he told the Jerusalem Post that the US would consider a military strike against Iran.

“The administration has been clear on that for its entire four years. There is no reason that would change today or tomorrow,” Pompeo said.

Last Friday, Channel 13 reported that Israel and the US were planning to increase pressure on Iran with “covert operations” and economic sanctions during Trump’s final weeks in office. Jerusalem and Washington assess that Tehran will not respond militarily before the end of Trump’s term. The report did not elaborate on the nature of actions that may be taken.

Among other covert operations against Iran’s rogue nuclear program, Israel and the US were reportedly responsible for introducing the Stuxnet computer virus to sabotage parts of Iran’s nuclear enrichment process a decade ago, and for more recent sabotage attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities. Israel’s Mossad spy agency spirited out a vast trove of Iranian documentation regarding the regime’s nuclear program, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu revealed in 2018. Israel has also been linked in reports to the killings of several Iranian nuclear scientists, and last week The New York Times reported that Israeli agents killed Al-Qaeda’s No. 2 Abu Muhammad al-Masri in Tehran in August at the behest of the US.

Last Monday, it was reported that Trump asked top advisers if he had options to strike Iranian nuclear sites during his last weeks in office, but was dissuaded with warnings it could lead to a wider conflict. Trump convened the officials a day after the UN nuclear watchdog said Iran had stockpiled over 12 times more enriched uranium than the 2015 nuclear deal allows, the report said, citing four current and former US officials.

 

Joe Biden names his foreign policy team

US President-elect Joe Biden has named his top foreign policy staff on Monday. He announced, as expected, Antony Blinken would serve as secretary of state.

“We have no time to lose when it comes to our national security and foreign policy,” the president-elect said in a press release. “I need a team ready on Day One to help me reclaim America’s seat at the head of the table, rally the world to meet the biggest challenges we face, and advance our security, prosperity, and values.”

Biden also tapped former secretary of state and former senator, John Kerry, as Special Presidential Envoy for Climate. He will sit on the National Security Council as well. “This marks the first time that the NSC will include an official dedicated to climate change, reflecting the president-elect’s commitment to addressing climate change as an urgent national security issue,” the transition team said in a press release.

Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield, a veteran member of the Foreign Service, would serve as ambassador to the UN. Thomas-Greenfield served in many positions during her 35-year service, including as ambassador to Liberia. She was posted in Pakistan, Nigeria, Kenya, and at the US mission to the UN in Geneva. In 2013, she was appointed as assistant secretary for the Bureau of African Affairs, where she led the policy on sub-Saharan Africa. Thomas-Greenfield also served as Director General of the Foreign Service and Director of human resources and as Deputy Assistant Secretary for the Population, Refugees and Migration Bureau.

Ambassador Barbara Bodine is the Director of the Institute for the Study of Diplomacy at Georgetown, where Thomas-Greenfield was the inaugural Distinguished Resident Fellow in African Studies from 2017 to 2019. “She has a background and experience directly with multilateral institutions,” Bodine said. “After serving in Africa, as she has as assistant secretary and ambassador, she also has seen how multilateralism or multilateral collaboration is how we operate in the field, on the ground every day,” she added.

According to Bodine, the fact that her name came out at the same time as Antony Blinken and Jake Sullivan and before all the other members of the administration, “signals that diplomacy is going to be a fundamental tool, not a secondary tool, and that we want to reengage credibly, collaboratively, with our partners, our friends and the rest of the world.”

She noted that Thomas-Greenfield is experienced in “conflict areas and worked on how you craft sustainable agreements to bring about peace.”

One important element for her work, Bodine noted, is that the US is going to chair the Security Council starting in March, which would require a knowledgeable person to hold the position. She added that Thomas-Greenfield doesn’t have experience with Israel or the Near East, “but she is going to represent the policy of the administration” when it comes to the region.

Biden also named Jake Sullivan as a national security adviser, according to media reports. Sullivan has gone a long way with Biden and Hillary Clinton. He advised Clinton during her 2008 primary bid and later Obama in his general-election bid. When Clinton was appointed secretary of state, Sullivan served as her deputy chief of staff and director of policy planning. When Clinton left the administration during Obama’s second term, he served as Biden’s top security aide. In 2016, he again advised Clinton during her presidential campaign. He was instrumental in shaping the 2015 Iran nuclear deal. He had defended the agreement.

“Under the deal, Iran’s nuclear program was in a box, it was frozen,” Sullivan wrote. “Under the deal, there were no rocket attacks killing Americans in Iraq... Today, Iran is attacking shipping in the Gulf and threatening the rest of the region.”

In August, he spoke at a webinar hosted by Democratic Majority of Israel, and said that Biden believes that “it is not a concession of leverage to sit down with Iran at the bargaining table.”

Sullivan said that at the end of the day, “what has been proven out over the past few years is that the United States has immense capacity, through the financial sanctions tool, to very swiftly ratchet up pressure. We did that in the Obama administration; the Trump administration did it; Iran knows that.

“He fundamentally believes that there’s a way to interplay the diplomacy side of this equation and the pressure side of this equation in a way that will help us secure the objectives that we’re trying to achieve,” Sullivan added.

According to Sullivan, diplomacy backed by pressure that creates leverage “is the kind of formula that could work again to make progress, not just on the core nuclear issues, but on some of these other challenges as well.

“One of the vice president’s commitments and all of this is to get to the table to be able to negotiate a follow-on agreement that does materially advance the security of the United States, of Israel, and our other regional partners as well, and does hold Iran to account.

“And he believes that that is the best way to actually produce a durable outcome,” he added.

Sullivan – together with two other former Obama officials, ambassador to Israel Dan Shapiro and under-secretary of state Wendy Sherman – played a role in shaping the Democratic Party’s foreign-policy platform.

Following the signing of the Abraham Accords to normalize relations between Israel and the UAE and Bahrain, Sullivan praised the move, saying the deal was a “positive accomplishment” for the president’s foreign policy.

“It’s good for the region, it’s good for Israel, it’s good for peace,” said Sullivan during an interview on the Yahoo News podcast Skullduggery.

Netanyahu trip to Saudi Arabia signifies importance of ties between two countries

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Mossad chief Yossi Cohen met with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) in Neom, Saudi Arabia on Sunday, Israeli sources confirmed. Netanyahu used a private plane belonging to businessman Udi Angel, which he has used for past diplomatic trips. The plane left Israel at 5.00 pm on Sunday and returned after midnight.

The trip was kept tightly under wraps, with Netanyahu not informing Defense Minister Benny Gantz or Foreign Minister Gabi Ashkenazi before it took place. "Gantz is doing politics while the prime minister is making peace," Netanyahu's social media adviser tweeted as reports of the visit came out.

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo also met with Netanyahu and MBS in Neom, a new city in northern Saudi Arabia on the Red Sea meant to show of the Kingdoms’ technological advancement.

A trip by Netanyahu to Saudi Arabia showcased the importance of Israel-Saudi Arabia ties in the last months of the Trump administration. This is important for numerous reasons, including regional alliances and security and economic ties that are flowering between Israel the Gulf States after the Abraham Accords.

Topaz Luk, Adviser to Israeli Prime Minister tweeted about Netanyahu “doing peace.” KAN correspondent Amichai Stein tweeted that the Prime Minister traveled to Saudi Arabia for a meeting with Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman and US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.

Pompeo tweeted about his “Constructive visit with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Neom. The United States and Saudi Arabia have come a long way since President Franklin Delano Roosevelt and King Abdul Aziz Al Saud first laid the foundation for our ties 75 years ago.”

The meeting came as Iranian-backed Houthi rebels fired ballistic missiles at an Aramco installation in Jeddah, which is far south of Neom, where the apparent meeting took place. Boris Johnson had noted during the recent G20, hosted by Saudi Arabia, that he wished he could have visited.

In this sense the center of the story is also about Saudi Arabia’s future. Riyadh has been talking more about climate change and trying to showcase the city of the future, the planned city of Neom which will cost hundreds of billions to build but will show what Saudi Arabia’s future can be.

While Riyadh has suffered diplomatic setbacks on the world stage in recent years, it has been trying to shore up support. Working with the current US administration and supporting peaceful outreach from Bahrain and the UAE to Israel have been part of that.

Saudi Arabia was the main engine behind the Arab peace initiative of 2002 and supported the concept of peace and normalization with Israel, with a Palestinian state being created. It doesn’t want to go back on that promise.

The UAE has posited that peace has helped stop Israeli annexation. Yousef al-Otaiba, the UAE ambassador to the US and Hend al-Otaiba, the spokesperson at the Foreign Ministry who recently penned an op-ed in Tablet, have stressed this point.

The Emirates and Bahrain are deeply investing in coexistence and interfaith initiatives, and Israelis are running to embrace them. Saudi Arabia, the larger of the countries and a global power in the Muslim world, has been more cautious, but has the same overall agenda as it speaks about reform and change.

However, Saudi Arabia has challenges abroad. It has been critiqued for human rights abuses in recent years, especially in the wake of breaking relations with Qatar in 2017.

Qatar and Turkey have mobilized state media and allies in Western governments, academia and media to portray Saudi Arabia as a human rights violator. The truth is more complex. Riyadh has been a monarchy for the last century and has had the same human rights issues in the 1990s as it has today.

The sudden daylight in relations that Riyadh feels from Western powers is about more than just an objective view of the situation in the kingdom, it is about some agendas being pushed by those in the West who seek a redress to decades of the West being close to Middle East Gulf countries. There are also claims that those who are more close to Iran and the Muslim Brotherhood have driven this narrative, trying to portray Riyadh more negatively than Qatar and Turkey.  

The result  has been much closer visible work between Saudi Arabia and Egypt, as well as between the UAE, Bahrain, India, Jordan, Greece and Egypt and Israel. This system of countries is juxtaposed with the Iranian alliance that includes its proxies in Lebanon, Iraq, Syria and Yemen, and the Turkey-Qatar alliance that includes Hamas.

These countries work on opposite sides in Yemen, Iraq and Lebanon. Riyadh is a supporter of Sunnis in Lebanon and Iraq, for instance, but must seek to fight for their hearts and minds against Turkey. This is a global struggle that also involves Pakistan and Malaysia. And it also involves Israel.

That is why the Pompeo visit, fresh from meeting the Taliban in Afghanistan, the Saudi hosting of the G20, the Houthi missile fire and reports of Netanyahu’s trip are all part of the same story. Saudi Arabia appeared to be moving toward peace with Israel. That would open many doors. But there are questions in Riyadh about what will change next year under President-elect Joe Biden.

Biden has been critical of Saudi Arabia and also of Turkey. US commentators critique the Riyadh-led war against the Houthis in Yemen. Major think tanks, some of which are warmer toward Iran or Qatar, seek to tarnish Saudi Arabia’s image. But at the G20 meeting Riyadh and Ankara appeared to be getting along better.

Many wonder what comes next. Closer Saudi-Israeli ties could be on the list. Riyadh has been flexible about flights and more openly supportive of the Abraham Accords. There is a role that Israel could play in the Saudi economy and cities like Neom if there were normalization. It could also mean a re-alignment of other issues from Iraq to Lebanon.

Clearly the willingness to be more open about these types of meetings is part and parcel of a movement in a direction that has been paved by Abu Dhabi and its innovative approach to rapidly expanding ties. Flights begin on 26th November to Dubai, for instance. That is symbolic, as symbolic as the business jet that left Israel at five in the afternoon yesterday and appeared headed to Neom.

Likely members of Joe Biden foreign policy team

In these blogs I often talk about the US foreign policy and the damage it causes, a look at Biden's foreign policy team seems inevitable. Susan Rice of Benghazi fame, National Security Advisor under Barak Obama, is likely to become Secretary of State.

Others likely selections is Michele Flournoy, co-founder of the Center for a New American Security (CNAS) as Secretary of Defense. Flournoy is a hawk and CNAS is financed by donations from who-is-who of the military industrial complex. She also co-founded WestExec Advisors, a consultancy that pulls strings to help companies to win Pentagon contracts. 

Also at WestExec Advisors was Tony Blinken who is set to become the National Security Advisor. He was National Security Advisor for then Vice President Biden, Deputy National Security Advisor for Obama and Deputy Secretary of State. 

All three, together with Joe Biden, promoted the 2003 war on Iraq and supported the wars the Obama administration launched or continued against some seven countries. They will continue to wage those wars and will probably add a few new ones.

Biden has said that he will re-instate the nuclear agreement with Iran but with 'amendments'. A realistic analysis shows that Iran is likely to reject any modification of the original deal.

The Biden administration will face the harsh reality that the amendments to the JCPOA that it needs to make its return to the agreement politically viable are unacceptable to Iran. The new US administration will more than likely find itself in a situation in which sanctions, including those on oil exports, must be maintained in an effort to pressure Iran to yield to US demands to modify the JCPOA.

There will be much pressure from the liberal hawks to finish the war they had launched against Syria by again intensifying it. Trump had ended the CIA's Jihadi supply program. The Biden team may well reintroduce such a scheme.

Susan Rice has criticized Trump's Doha deal with the Taliban. Under a Biden administration US troop levels in Afghanistan are therefore likely to increase again.

One possible change may come in the US support for the Saudi war on Yemen. The Democrats dislike Mohammad bin Salman and may try to use the Yemen issue to push him out of his Crown Prince position.

Biden and his team have supported the coup attempt in Venezuela. They only criticized it for not being done right and will probably come up with their own bloody 'solution'.

After four years of Russiagate nonsense, which Susan Rice had helped to launch, it is impossible to again 'reset' the relations with Russia. Biden could immediately agree to renew the New START treaty which limits strategic nuclear weapons but it is more likely that he will want to add, like with Iran's nuclear deal, certain 'amendments' which will be hard to negotiate. Under Biden the Ukraine may be pushed into another war against its eastern citizens. Belarus will remain on the 'regime change' target list.

Asia is the place where Biden's policies may be less confrontational than Trump's.

China would have a big sigh of relief if Biden picks Rice as his secretary of state. Beijing knows her well, as she had a hands-on role in re-molding the relationship from engagement to selective competition, which could well be the post-Trump China policies.

For the Indian audience, which is obsessive about Biden’s China policy, I would recommend Rice’s oral history where she narrates her experience as NSA on how the US and China could effectively coordinate despite their strategic rivalry and how China actually helped America battle Ebola.

Interestingly, the recording was made in April this year amidst the “Wuhan virus” pandemic in the US and Trump’s trade and tech war with China. Simply put, Rice highlighted a productive relationship with Beijing while probably sharing the more Sino-skeptic sentiment of many of America’s foreign policy experts and lawmakers.

All together the Biden/Harris regime will be a continuation of the Obama regime. Its foreign policies will have awful consequences for a lot of people on this planet.

Domestically Biden/Harris will revive all the bad feelings that led to the election of Donald Trump. The demographics of the election show no sign of a permanent majority for Democrats.

It is therefore highly probable that Trump, or a more competent and thereby more dangerous populist republican, will again win in 2024.

Iran unveils a new warship packed with drones and missiles

Iran unveiled a new ship over the weekend called the Shahid Roudaki. It is part of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and was given a spotlight at Bandar Abbas port near the strategic Straits of Hormuz on Thursday. The ship is so interesting to Iran watchers that the United States Naval Institute ran a story about it.

On its surface this is just a transport ship, but Iran has crowded its deck with all sorts of weapons to show off what it can do. According to aerial photos and description the ship has been packed with multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS) that are mounted on fast boats. There is also an advanced 3rd Khordad air defense system and helicopters, as well as drones and anti-ship missiles. It is being termed a floating armory, or a floating “bazarr”.  

The Bell 412 helicopter appears to be one of those old American helicopters that Iran has because it once had a bell helicopter Textron factory under the Shah. The 3rd Khordad system is more recent. It was used to down a US$200 million American Global Hawk drone in June 2019. The six Ababil drones, noted in the photo, are part of Iran’s expanding drone arsenal. It is often alleged that Iran used drones and cruise missiles to attack Saudi Arabia in September 2019. Iran has also sent drones to Syria and used them to threaten Israel and provided them to Hezbollah.

According to H.I Sutton, who wrote the USNI news piece, the ship has four Qader anti-ship missiles, the Iranian version of the Chinese C-802. The ship is 492 feet long and 72 feet wide. It also has 23 mm anti aircraft guns. “It seems unlikely that these systems would be arrayed like this in normal operations. The small boats may be a common feature, but the other systems appear only representative of her potential capability and role,” Sutton writes. The assessment is that this ship is capable of long range missions and support.

Iran has a relatively weak navy. It relies on the IRGC fast boats to ward off US ships. The US warned the fast boats to stop harassing American ships in the spring and US President Donald Trump threatened to sink the Iranian ships. Iran has been training recently against a mock US aircraft carrier, a giant model it keeps sinking and strafing to show off. But Iran’s navy is no match for the American Fifth Fleet.  

The US Navy’s Nimitz Carrier Strike Group recently left the Persian Gulf to train with Japan, India and Australia for a drill called Malabar. The US is increasingly working with India on regional security. India is also a close partner of Israel and the UAE. US carriers can be at sea for a very long time. The Abraham Lincoln was at sea for 295 days, during which it also went to the US 5th Fleet base in Bahrain. US ships such as the guided-missile cruiser USS Philippine Sea and USNS Wally Schirra and USS Winston Churchill are in the area as well.  

Even though the US Navy has immense firepower, the new Iranian ship is still an asymmetric threat. Sutton writes in a separate post at Covert Shores “in fact while the IRGC-N has been limited to local operations in the Persian Gulf, the IRGC as a whole is active further afield. They have interests in Syria for example. So she may turn up in the Mediterranean to support IRGC efforts ashore. Or provide intelligence to proxy forces in conflicts which Iran is technically not involved in.” This might involve supporting the Houthis in Yemen, for instance.

Other experts, such as Jeremy Binnie of Janes Defense Weekly, noted that the new Iranian ship is likely a ship built in Italy in 1992 once called Galaxy F. He pointed out online that it carries a 2031 Radar unit that is used to “support long-range anti-ship missiles.” 

Could this be a forward base for the IRGC, or part of an expeditionary unit? It was provided to the IRGC likely to harass Iran’s foes. That could be Gulf states or Israel or the US. Iran has provided the Houthis with drones and ballistic missiles to attack Riyadh in recent years. The US Navy helped intercept three of these shipments over the years. The US also maintains what is called by those in the know; the “petting zoo” in Washington where captured Iranian missiles and drones provided to the Houthis are shown to experts.

Furthermore, Iran has been building new drones. It has showcased drones armed with missiles in September and it has shown off a new train capable of carrying ballistic missiles on November 5. An arms embargo on Iran ended last month and Iran says it may soon be exporting weapons.

Also Iran recently began working with North Korea again on missile development, US reports indicated in October. Iran has also shown off a new Pars satellite it wants to launch. Tal Inbar, an expert on aerospace technology, has tweeted images noting Iran’s Sejil missile put on a launcher and also reports about the deputy head of Iran’s Space Research Center Jafar Salehi announcing plans for a new launch of a 100kg satellite. The satellite may be for telecommunications. Iran launched its first military satellite in April.

Video of the ship was put online on November 19. Clearly Iran is sending yet another message to the region that it has the indigenous technology to build numerous weapons. Reports that this was an “aircraft carrier” style of ship were a bit exaggerated, but this new Iranian ship certainly gives the country more options at sea.

Iran has done joint training with Russia and Iran at sea, a message to the West and Gulf that it has allies in faraway places. Israel struck Iranian IRGC Quds Force sites in Syria on November 18. Israel said it was sending a message to Iran and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned Iran against entrenching in Syria. 

Saudi Arabia may not find Biden as bad as being perceived

Pakistan had enjoyed extremely cordial relations with Saudi Arabia and Iran in the past. Now, one is termed friend and other is declared foe of United States. One of the remote possibilities of easing tension between the arch-rivals is change of hearts after the change in White House. Many Muslim countries wish Joe Biden succeeds in restoring working relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran. The first step in this direction is Saudi Arabia accepting Joe Biden as friend getting ready for the reconciliation with Iran.

Under Donald Trump, Saudi Arabia got all the attention it wanted from the United States. While Joe Biden presidency may end the love-fest, the Kingdom’s leaders may not mind as much as one might think. King Salman bin Abdulaziz and his son, Crown Prince Mohammed, are set to lose much of what they gained during Trump’s four years in office.

A Joe Biden administration might seem all bad for the kingdom and for the crown prince who largely runs the country and assumed his role less than a year after Trump took office. While there will be greater scrutiny, especially over human rights, the country has an opportunity in a US president who isn’t all that different from Trump in regarding Saudi Arabia as a crucial ally in a volatile region.

“What Saudi Arabia has wanted is to be seen as a state like any other, to be a leader in the G-20, to have legitimacy,” said Karen Young, a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute. “What the Biden administration can offer is to say, ‘OK fine, you want to be treated like any other partner in the Middle East, no more special relationship, let’s lay it all out.’”

Saudi Arabia will get a fresh chance to burnish its bona fides this weekend when it hosts a virtual summit of the Group of 20 nations. It’s still unclear whether Trump will make a video appearance. In yet one more sign of the Trump administration’s long support for the regime, Secretary of State Michael Pompeo will visit the country’s leaders briefly on Sunday in the futuristic planned city of Neom.

Saudi Arabia already seems to be adjusting to the new political reality. After initially holding off, its leaders sent cables congratulating Biden and seeking warmer ties with the US. King Salman praised the historical deep-rooted relations between the two friendly countries, adding that both countries are keen to develop and enhance these relations in all fields.

During his election campaign, Biden referred to the country as a “pariah” and said he would end support for the war in Yemen, where a Saudi-led coalition has been fighting the Iran-aligned Houthis for more than five years in an effort to restore the internationally recognized government, contributing to one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises. At the same time, Biden has made clear Saudi Arabia is a “critical” partner in preserving stability in energy markets and the Middle East.

 “We should recognize the value of cooperation on counter-terrorism and deterring Iran,” Biden told the Council on Foreign Relations in July 2019. “But America needs to insist on responsible Saudi actions and impose consequences for reckless ones.” Such pledges to cooperate have helped keep calm in Saudi Arabia. Officials recognize that it is a less harsh tone than President Barack Obama took, he had once vented about the “so-called ally” and said Saudi Arabia must “share” the region with Iran.

Saudi Arabia’s leadership is also assuaged by Biden’s past comments. While he wants to rejoin the Iran nuclear deal that Trump abandoned, he also wants follow-on negotiations to strengthen the deal. Saudi Arabia regards Iran as its chief regional foe, and opposed the 2015 nuclear accord between Iran and world powers.

“Given the fact that we’re weaning ourselves off Arab hydrocarbon, Biden can pursue a different approach,” said Aaron David Miller, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and former Mideast official at the State Department. At the same time, he said, the Biden administration will want to make sure Saudi Arabia sees a smooth transition of its own should King Salman, who is 84 now, formally transfer power to the crown prince.

 

 

Can Trump initiate a war against Iran now?

Recently there were some reports about US President Donald Trump considering taking military action against Iran during his remaining few days at the White House.

According to a report by New York Times, “President Trump asked senior advisers in an Oval Office meeting whether he had options to take action against Iran’s main nuclear site in the coming weeks.

A range of senior advisers discouraged the president from moving ahead with a military strike. The advisers — including Vice President Mike Pence; Secretary of State Mike Pompeo; Christopher C. Miller, the acting defense secretary; and Gen. Mark A. Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff — warned that a strike against Iran’s facilities could easily escalate into a broader conflict in the last weeks of Trump’s presidency.”

While New York Times says Trump was the initiator of this plan, some other sources say the plan was initiated by other officials of the White House but Trump was not interested in it. 

Regarding the psychological warfare orchestrated against Iran, some points and possibilities should not be neglected. These include:

On the eve of the martyrdom of Lt. General Qasim Soleimani, assassinated in Iraq, the US administration was worried about possible Iran’s revenge and actions against the US interests in the region. Therefore, the recent US psychological war can be interpreted as a part of the White House’s efforts to create a balance of horror to prevent Iran’s possible measures against the US interests.

A question also arise, why has Trump revealed its plan if he really intended to pave the way for military action against Iran or its regional allies? Why didn’t he attack Iran or its allies before or after the assassination of Lt. Gen. Soleimani?

Trump’s possible move can also be considered as part of his efforts to increase the costs of his removal from power for his opponents and rival Biden and also to satisfy his rightist supporters.

Final point to ponder, it should not be forgotten that making such a dangerous decision that can lead to an all-out regional war cannot be made by Trump himself. Such a decision needs confirmation of both US Republicans and Democrats.

Any media report to introduce Trump as the only responsible for a possible attack on Iran aims to reduce the consequences of such a dangerous possible measure and limit Iran’s response.

US recent moves to reduce the number of its troops in Iraq and the region can be interpreted as the White House's tactic to decrease its possible fatalities and losses.