Wednesday, 18 November 2020

Can US$23 billion sale of arms to United Arab Emirates be stopped?

According to a Reuters report, three US senators said Wednesday that they would introduce legislation seeking to halt the Trump administration’s effort to sell more than US$23 billion of drones and other weapons systems to the United Arab Emirates (UAE), setting up a showdown with the president just weeks before he is due to leave office.

Democratic Senators Bob Menendez and Chris Murphy and Republican Senator Rand Paul will introduce four separate resolutions of disapproval of President Donald Trump’s plan to sell more than US$23 billion worth of Reaper drones, F-35 fighter aircraft and air-to-air missiles and other munitions to the UAE.

The huge sale could alter the balance of power in the Middle East, and members of Congress have scrape the administration’s attempt to rush it through, having sent a formal notice to Congress only last week.

Many lawmakers are concerned that the UAE would use the weapons in attacks that would harm civilians in Yemen, whose civil war is considered one of the world’s worst humanitarian disasters.

When the deal was announced, Amnesty International warned that the weapons would be used for “attacks that violate international humanitarian law and kill, as well as injure thousands of Yemeni civilians.”

While the resolutions bring attention to lawmakers’ questions about the massive sales, and could delay them, they are unlikely to stop them.

US law covering major arms deals lets senators force votes on resolutions of disapproval. However, to go into effect the resolutions must pass the Republican-led Senate, which rarely breaks from Trump. They also must pass the Democratic-led House of Representatives and survive Trump vetoes.

Incoming President, Joe Biden could ultimately stop them for reasons of national security, making a prediction on the final outcome difficult.

The senators said the Trump administration, seeking to rush the sale as it brokered a peace deal between the UAE and Israel, circumvented the normal review process. They said State and the Pentagon failed to respond to their inquiries.

Weaponry involved includes the world’s most advanced fighter jet, more than 14,000 bombs and munitions and the second-largest sale of U.S. drones to a single country.

The Senate Foreign Relations and House of Representatives Foreign Affairs committees have the right to review and attempt to block weapons sales.

Past measures to block arms sales over concerns about Yemeni casualties passed the House and Senate with bipartisan support, but failed to get enough Republican backing to override Trump’s vetoes.

Lawmakers have also expressed concern about whether the UAE sales would violate a longstanding agreement with Israel that any US weapons sold in the Middle East would not impair its “quantitative military edge” over neighboring states.

Menendez is the ranking Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and in line to become chairman next year if Democrats take control of the Senate in Georgia runoff elections in January.

 

Finally, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu calls US President-elect Joe Biden

Finally, Israeli President Reuven Rivlin and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called US President-elect Joe Biden on Tuesday, a week and a half after his victory in the presidential election. Netanyahu and Biden spoke for more than 20 minutes, and the Prime Minister’s Office said the conversation was warm. “The special relationship between the US and Israel is a fundamental part of Israel’s security and policy,” Netanyahu said.

Biden in turn thanked Netanyahu for congratulating him on his election win, according to his office, noting that he expects to work closely with Netanyahu in the future. Biden told Netanyahu he is deeply committed to the State of Israel and its security, according to the Prime Minister’s Office.

The two agreed to meet soon to discuss matters on the agenda and the need to strengthen the alliance between the US and Israel. The Prime Minister’s Office statement called Biden president-elect, which Netanyahu had previously not done.

Rivlin congratulated Biden on his election, saying he has “no doubt that under your leadership, the United States is committed to Israel’s security and success.” US-Israel “friendship is based on values that are beyond partisan politics,” Rivlin said. Biden thanked Rivlin for his congratulations and stated that he looks forward to working with Israel.

Rivlin touted the friendship between the two countries on three levels: First, that the US has no stronger ally than Israel; second, the great friendship between the Israeli and American people; and third, that “the president of the United States of America has no greater friend than the president of the State of Israel, as we have proven over the years.”

Rivlin also said he hoped Biden would work to build on the recently signed Abraham Accords and facilitate ties between Israel and more countries in the region. In addition, Rivlin invited Biden to Jerusalem and sent his regards to Vice President-elect Kamala Harris.

The statement about Netanyahu’s call came out 27 minutes after Rivlin’s office sent its statement. The Prime Minister’s Office said it was scheduled in advance and not in reaction to the president calling. A spokesman for Netanyahu was unaware of the timing and said Biden did not mention speaking to Rivlin first. The President’s Residence did not respond to inquiries about the timing of the call.

The delay of a week and a half in calling Biden, when other world leaders did so much sooner – and the 12-hour delay in Netanyahu releasing a congratulatory message after news outlets called Biden’s victory on November 7 – fueled speculation that the prime minister was trying to avoid angering President Donald Trump.

In his message to the cabinet the morning after, Netanyahu said, “I have a personal, long and warm connection with Joe Biden for nearly 40 years, and I know him to be a great friend of the State of Israel.” But he again stopped short of using the term president-elect.

At a press conference on Monday, Netanyahu would only say that Biden is “supposed to be appointed the next president.” Asked who won the US election by Galei Israel Radio on Tuesday, Netanyahu said: “Why do I have to express an opinion? They have their processes, their Electoral College.” “I will cooperate with the US administration, but stand up for our security,” he later said.

Sunday, 15 November 2020

Iranian refining and downstream industries flourishing despite sanctions

Persian Gulf Star Refinery (PGSR) located in Iran’s southern province of Hormozgan is the first of its kind. It is based on gas condensate feedstock received from the South Pars gas field which Iran shares with Qatar in the Persian Gulf. As the largest processing facility for gas condensate in West Asia, PGSR has made Iran an exporter of gasoline.

This refinery has increased Iran’s gasoline production to 110 million liters per day, while the country’s consumption is 74 million liters. PGSR has not only made Iran self sufficient in gasoline production, but enabled it to export surplus output. The products exported by the refinery during the first half of the current Iranian calendar year were 120 percent higher than the products exported during the same period last year.

Pars Oil and Gas Company (POGC), responsible for developing South Pars gas field, delivered about 60 million barrels of gas condensate to PGSR during the first half of the current year. PGSR receives 375,000 barrels of condensate daily from South Pars gas field as the feedstock.

Historically, Iran has remained a net importer of gasoline in recent decades and restriction on sale of gasoline was used as one of the tools to pressurize the country. Those sanctions were lifted with the implementation of JCPOA (Iran’s nuclear deal with the world powers, known as Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), concerns about their return led to construction of PGSR to be pursued more rapidly and in different phases. In January 2019, when the third phase of the refinery was inaugurated, Iran was able not only to eliminate the need to import gasoline but also to export surplus gasoline and bring more income to the country.

 According to Secretary General of Iran’s Oil Refining Industry Companies Association (ORICA) the country’s oil refining capacity has increased to two million barrels per day. The activities of the refineries, in addition to meeting the domestic need, have led to the export of surplus products, which plays a significant role in combating the sanctions.

The Secretary General of ORICA went on to say that in addition to the main products, 32 other special products are produced in the refineries, which are allocated on priority to domestic petrochemical industries.

He highlighted the role of refineries as 32,000 people are directly employed in this sector and now all refineries are run by domestic experts and not a single foreign engineer is employed in this industry.

In the recent past, the quality of domestically produced fuel was not comparable to international standards, but over the last four years the quality of local gasoline has improved so much that ordinary gasoline has replaced super gasoline. It is also worth noting that the country's refineries are operating at optimum capacity utilization.

Lately, Iran’s Karoon Petrochemical Company (KPC) has unveiled two new products that are going to save the country US$27 million. The production lines of two new grades of MTDI and KMT-10 were officially launched with the aim of meeting the needs of downstream sectors and completing the value chain of the country’s petrochemical sector.

KMT-10 is produced by pre-polymerization of methyl phenyl isocyanate and by the formation of urethane groups. With the production of this new product, the petrochemical industry will practically eliminate the need to import similar grades which have been previously imported from China, Japan, South Korea, and Germany. This strategic product has wide applications in the automotive, office, and home appliances industries.

MTDI products include Aradur 830 CH, Aradur 850 CH, and Aradur 2963 CH. Karoon Petrochemical Company has introduced this product in order to meet the needs of downstream producers of paint, resin, and polyurethane and in order to complete the value chain of petrochemical products.

The petrochemical industry is playing a crucial role in Iran's non-oil economy, the second-largest foreign exchange earner after crude oil. Petrochemical exports already make up nearly 33 percent of the country’s non-oil exports.

Head of Iran’s National Petrochemical Company (NPC) Behzad Mohammadi said the country’s petrochemical products basket would be further diversified. The official noted that major development plans were underway for diversifying the country’s petrochemical output considering the wide range of feedstock available.

Friday, 13 November 2020

Does Netanyahu consider Biden victory a blow to his plans?

Reportedly, till Thursday evening, Israel’s Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu has not called President-elect of the United States, Joe Biden. This is despite Biden having been announced the winner and receiving phone calls from the leaders of France, Germany, Canada, the United Kingdom and Ireland.

It may sound a bit odd that the leader of Israel – the country that claims to have an intimate and unparalleled special relationship with the United States – did not make that call. Some experts term this a fear. Not a fear that the call with Biden will not go well, but rather concern over the retribution Netanyahu could face from Trump, who still has some days left in office.

With Netanyahu likely on the verge of another election of his own in the coming weeks, the last thing he needs is to upset Trump. If the president can fire his secretary of defense on Twitter – “Mark Esper has been terminated” – imagine what he can write about an Israeli politician whom he feels is no longer loyal.

Netanyahu had waited 12 hours on Saturday night before tweeting congratulations to Biden, and when he finally did, refrained from calling him “president-elect” even though that was exactly what he called Trump in a similar tweet he put out four years ago.

This is all understandable, Netanyahu genuinely wanted to see Trump win the election, and Biden’s victory came as a blow to his plans. It takes time to readjust. In addition, there are more than two months left to Trump’s term, and there are issues that still need to be managed, like Iran, an urgent challenge underscored by the visit to Israel this week of Elliott Abrams, the administration’s point man on the Islamic Republic.

At some point, Netanyahu will have to hold that conversation with Biden, and will need to begin to acknowledge that the administration is changing. It will be complicated. Not because Biden is not pro-Israel – his track record over five decades in government proves he is – but rather because Israelis have forgotten what a non-Trump president looks like.

Whether it was Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan, George H.W. Bush, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush or Barack Obama, every president opposed settlement activity and actively pushed for a two-state solution. Some focused on it more, others less. Bush, a republican like Trump, is remembered as a great friend of Israel, even in right-wing circles. Did these people forget the Annapolis Conference, the Roadmap for peace, the letters he sent Ariel Sharon making a distinction between settlement blocs and the rest of the settlements?

The point is that opposition to settlements has always been US policy. The change came with Trump, the most unconventional of presidents, who took an alternative position on a complicated conflict. He was the anomaly, not the new normal.

The problem is that Netanyahu is unable to accept new reality. He got used to the breaking down of norms and the shattering of traditionally accepted policies. He believed that Trump and Trumpism were here to stay. He should have prepared himself and the people that at some point it would end, and the Israeli-US dynamic would go back to the way it was beforehand. This is why in Israel there seems to be actual grieving over news that Trump has lost the election. People are in denial.

Another catalyst for this change is that the settler camp of 2020 is politically stronger than it was in 2008 or 2012. Netanyahu, whose political future is uncertain, needs their votes more than ever before, which means that he will have to stand strong against attempts to undermine the legitimacy of settlements or stop their construction.

What makes this even more complicated is that Israel appears on the verge of an election. This is due to Netanyahu’s continued refusal to pass a state budget for 2021, even though that is what the country so desperately needs.

Netanyahu will have to decide: does he prefer a new election while a new administration is taking office in Washington, or does he give in to Gantz, pass a budget, lose his opportunity in March to withdraw from the rotation agreement, and leave his fate up to the judicial system?

Tuesday, 10 November 2020

Donald Trump did a lot for Israel; can Joe Biden do the same?

US President-elect, Joe Biden had brandished his pro-Israel credentials at a Christmas party in December 1981 that he and his wife, threw in their Delaware, home for members of the Delaware press corps.

Biden was no strangers, he has been interviewed many times that year, including after Israel’s surprise attack on Iraq’s Osirak nuclear reactor. Biden, a member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, was disturbed that Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin acted without giving the US advance warning.

That evening Biden proclaimed: “I’m Israel’s best Catholic friend.” After he has been elected America’s 46th president many Israelis believe it is his turn to prove this with deeds, not just words. He has a tough act to follow. In Jerusalem, there is anxiety that Biden administration will be indistinguishable from what a third term for President Barack Obama would have resembled. 

While most American Jews voted for Obama, he had a fragile relationship with the pro-Israel community. His Iran nuclear deal alarmed Israelis, who are unified view that Iran poses an existential threat to Israel. Obama outraged right-wing Israelis with the cold shoulder he turned to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and exerted heavy pressure on Israel to make sacrifices for peace with the Palestinians. Biden’s campaign trail announcements have aroused similar anxieties, with plans to reenter the Iran deal and prioritize Israeli-Palestinian peace, which no US President has been able to broker because neither side seems to want it. 

Israelis are enthused over the recent diplomatic breakthroughs with the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Sudan. They were hoping Saudi Arabia would be the next domino to topple, but that’s looking remote, especially if Biden chooses to soothe tensions with Iran and reassess the US-Saudi relationship. If Biden tries to roll back the process not accepting Trump’s “deal of the century,” this may deter other Arab nations from reaching agreements with Israel, hindering hopes for a broader, regional peace.  

Israelis believe that Biden and Obama are two different people. The chemistry that two leaders form or fail to form is a critical element in how relations between two nations will progress. Biden is not the slightest bit aloof or professorial, as Obama was often accused of being. He’s earned the moniker of “Uncle Joe.” The chatty style we saw from him in debates and on the campaign trail — including his gaffes — is vintage Joe Biden. 

Netanyahu doesn’t need an introduction to the president-elect. The Israeli leader opened a recent Cabinet meeting in Jerusalem by noting his “long and warm personal connection with Joe Biden for nearly 40 years … as a great friend of the State of Israel.”

Obama and Netanyahu had never developed such chemistry, one is not really sure Netanyahu had that with Trump, either. Netanyahu has a lot of boastfulness, but always appeared off-balance in Trump’s presence. Netanyahu may prefer Trump’s peace plan, but Netanyahu’s cautious nature stood in sharp contrast with Trump’s unpredictable streak. Netanyahu has more years ahead of him politically than Biden does. There were rumous during the campaign that Biden would be only a one-term president, or that health issues might force him to step down sooner. His debate performance put many of those rumors to rest, but Netanyahu, as he approaches his 12th consecutive year as prime minister, has never stood on shakier ground. 

Netanyahu’s trial in a Jerusalem District Court on breach of trust and fraud charges will be in full swing just as Biden takes the oath of office in January and will be a major distraction. Even before the next calendar year starts, the Knesset faces a 23rd December deadline to pass a budget. Failure to do so means new elections. Recent polls show the right-wing Yamina party led by Naftali Bennett gaining popularity means Israel’s next government could swing sharply to the right, obstructing any plans that Biden has to prioritize the Israeli-Palestinian track.

During his long US Senate career, and as vice president, Biden has dealt with every Israeli prime minister from Golda Meir to Netanyahu and understands Israel’s security concerns better than any other American leader. Israeli leaders appreciate that about Biden, but at the same time many express strong hope that the Biden administration will not drive in reverse in the Middle East now that the Trump peace process policies have been vindicated. 

 

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Monday, 9 November 2020

Joe Biden to face a tough task in bridging the divides

Shireen Tahmaasb Hunter, a professor of political science at Georgetown University, says Joe Biden will face a “tough task in bridging the divides" in the American society, noting that "economic, cultural, and racial divisions in America have widened." “Republicans have kept the Senate, which would make the task of affecting economic and other changes more difficult,” Hunter tells the Tehran Times.

Following are the excerpts from the interview:

It seems that the November 3 election has turned into a controversial issue. Why does this election call into question whether America can preserve its democracy?

Every time an election is close, as is the case with the 2020 elections, the likelihood of controversy increases. In such an election, every single vote count and a few votes can determine the fate of the preserve its democracy elections. This is why Biden wants all votes counted, and Trump, where he is ahead, wants counting to stop. So far, the Supreme Court has not expressed any judgment on this matter.

How do you read Trump's behavior when he questions the vote-counting process? Is he an exception in America's history?

Trump's personal behavior is certainly an aberration. However, some of his policies, like a desire to put American interests ahead of internationalist goals, prevent America's trading partners from taking advantage of it. His nationalistic discourse is not aberrations and reflects deeper trends.

Regardless of who will win the election, how will the US heal the rifts in which the society has been divided into two opposite groups?

Clearly, in recent years, economic, cultural, and racial divisions in America have widened. However, the perception of such a divide is stronger than its reality. The media generally focuses on the extremists in each camp and ignores the moderates. Nevertheless, Biden faces a tough task in bridging these divides. Republicans have kept the Senate, which would make the task of affecting economic and other changes more difficult. However, it also seems that both parties' extreme wings have realized that they need to make some concessions. Therefore, there might be a chance to reach a middle ground on many issues. Also, Biden is a professional politician with long experience as a senator and would be better able to reach compromises with the Republicans.

Do you agree that the Supreme Court has an outsized role in elections because it has become politicized? Is there any guarantee that the members of the Supreme Court be unbiased?

The president nominates and does not appoint Supreme Court judges. Their appointment requires Senate's approval. As to being political, everything in life, to some degree, is political because people compete for power and privilege. There is no guarantee that judges would vote in a non-partisan spirit. Burt judges, too, must keep their own reputation in mind and contend with public opinion. They cannot vote in ways that go completely against evidence. Such behavior would discredit them.

It seems that the president in the American political structure has vast authority that may tempt him to exploit the power to serve his interests. The president nominates Supreme Court members, which has a key role in the elections in controversial cases. What is your comment?

The president has great constitutional powers. However, many of his/her decisions must be approved by Congress. There is the risk of abuse, but not to the extent of threatening democracy. Many of the comments made in this regard in the media derive from partisan politics. Nevertheless, democracy needs vigilance. Trump's defeat shows that, at least for now, Americans reject any abuse of presidential powers.

Don't you think that the electoral system is threatening democracy in the United States as there have been candidates who have won popular votes but lost in the Electoral College?

The Electoral College was established so that states with smaller populations could also have a role in deciding who should be president. Otherwise, always states like New York, California, Texas, and Florida would determine elections' results. Given demographic and economic disparities among states, the Electoral College is a balancing mechanism. For instance, without the Electoral College, rural areas and small towns would have no say in deciding elections' results. There is a difference between democracy and majority rule.

Sunday, 8 November 2020

Israeli analysts raise 10 fears after victory of Joe Biden

Israel emerges as the first country to raise fears after the victory of Joe Biden in the US Presidential Election. Its biggest fear is that the US policy in the Middle East, especially the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and Iran, is likely to undergo a dramatic sea-change, after Joe Biden enters the White House in January 2021.

1. Trump’s "Deal of the Century"

Israel’s biggest fear is that Biden will end any possibility that Trump’s plan to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, known as “Peace to Prosperity” or by its nickname as the “Deal of the Century”. The plan had offered a radical break from past initiatives and allowed Israel to eventually annex up to 30% of the West Bank and promised to recognize Israeli sovereignty over most of east Jerusalem. As part of the plan, Trump had also included the first ever published map of suggested borders for a two-state resolution to the conflict. The plan was unveiled only in January 2020, with an invitation to the Palestinians to negotiate, which they rejected. The Trump administration itself sidelined the initiative this summer in favor of prioritizing Israeli-Arab normalization deals, with the idea that solving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict would come at a later stage. Now Israel fears Biden will not adopt it.

2. West Bank annexation

A Biden victory removes any possibly of unilateral West Bank annexation, even a minor one. Biden will not support it and the Trump administration is unlikely to move on it during the time it has left, because his administration promised to suspend it in exchange for normalization deals with the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. Biden will want any sovereignty moves to wait until a final status agreement is reached with the Palestinians. His map of a two-state solution is unlikely to include all the settlements, and as a result, the fear of future settlement evacuations and a possible settlement freeze now returns to the discourse. The settlers and the Israeli Right had warned that the first 10 months of this year represented an unprecedented window of opportunity to annex the settlements. That window has now closed.

3. Onus on Israel to resolve the conflict with the Palestinians

The former Obama administration had held Israel liable for continuation of the conflict, holding that its continued settlement activity was a stumbling block to peace. The Trump administration flipped that calculation. It placed the onus for the conflict on the Palestinian Authority (PA) for failing to negotiate and for incitement. It held in particular that terrorism was a stumbling block to peace and took the PA to task for its continued support of terrorist activity through the payment to individuals jailed for terror activity and to family members of terrorists. The Trump administration also divorced settlement activity from the peace process either with the Palestinians or with Arab states. The onus will now flip back to Israel to resolve the frozen peace process, with renewed emphasis on the connection between the peace process and settlement building, which will once again become a stumbling block to peace.

4. Settlements will once again be considered illegitimate

Biden is likely to reverse the Trump administration’s dramatic upending of longstanding US policy, which held that Israeli activity over the pre-1967 lines in the West Bank and east Jerusalem was illegitimate. The Trump administration had recognized Israel’s historic and religious rights to that territory. While it never recognized Israeli sovereignty there, it held that such settlement activity was not inconsistent with international law and allowed for the building and expansion of Jewish settlements. To underscore the deep Jewish roots in the territory, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and US Ambassador to Israel David Friedman spoke of that area as Judea and Samaria. Concepts that were eliminated as part of the blanketed US support for all the settlements, such as settlement blocs, isolated settlements and the pre-1967 lines, will all be resurrected.

5. US embassy in Jerusalem

Biden is among the signatories to the US Embassy Act of 1995 that recognized Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and mandated its embassy be relocated from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. The embassy was only moved in 2018, under the Trump administration. During the campaign, Biden said he had no intention of reversing that move. To date, only the US and Guatemala have embassies in Jerusalem. The Trump administration has actively campaigned and enticed a small number of other countries to follow suit. His loss brings an end to that campaign. It is now unlikely that other countries, even ones who have pledged to do so, will move their embassies to Jerusalem.

6. Revival of Palestinian Authority

A Biden win breathes new life into the Palestinian Authority, which had been on the verge of financial collapse. It’s expected the Biden administration would restore ties with the Authority that had been severed during the Trump administration. This would include reopening the PLO mission in Washington and the US Consulate General in Jerusalem that served the Palestinians. Biden is expected to restore much of the financial assistance to both the Palestinians and to the United Nations Relief and Works Agency which services Palestinian refugees, all of which had been cut by the Trump administration. The absence of those funds had created a financial crisis that was compounded by the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as the PA’s decision to protest Trump’s peace initiatives by refusing to accept the tax revenues which Israel has collected on its behalf. It had also cut security ties. News of Biden’s victory allows it to restore security ties with Israel and to receive the tax revenues.

7. Israeli-Palestinian negotiations

A Biden administration would likely be able to revive the frozen Israeli-Palestinian talks by leveraging the shelving of the Trump administration’s peace plan and any possibility of West Bank annexation to entice the PA back to the table. It would be difficult for the PA to refuse Biden, after taking such a harsh step against Trump. PA President Mahmoud Abbas’s age would also be a factor, he is 85 and can’t afford to wait out the Biden administration, like he did the Obama and Trump administrations.

8. Israeli-Arab normalization

Biden supports the Israeli normalization deals with Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates and Sudan and is expected to work to advance them. But he is less likely than Trump to be able to advance new ones, since some of the impetus for the deals was the creation of a regional alliance against Iran. Still, the basic paradigm shift that divorced Israeli-Arab ties from the fate of Israel’s conflict with the Palestinians will remain in place.

9. US Israel bonding

Under a Biden administration the United States still stands with Israel at the United Nations. This show of solidarity has been a main feature of US policy for at least the last three administrations. The Obama and Bush administrations stood with Israel at the UN due to the body’s bias against Israel, even though they philosophically agreed with many of Israel’s opponents. The Trump administration stood with Israel both on the grounds of bias and because it philosophically supported Israel on many of the issues. Biden is more likely to go the way of the Obama and Bush administrations. Biden’s anticipated elimination of the Trump Administration’s paradigm understanding of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict will likely weaken the impact of his administration’s support for Israel at the UN.

10. Iranian deal

Biden victory may reverse the Trump administration’s policy towards Iran and restores it to that of the Obama administration, which had brokered a 2015 deal to curb Tehran’s nuclear program. Trump withdrew the US from that deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, between Iran and the six world powers. It has re-imposed US sanctions on Iran and fought – albeit unsuccessfully – to restore the international ones as well, including the arms embargo. Now Biden may work to rejoin and revive the deal, which still has the support of the other five world powers.