Israel emerges as the first country to raise fears after the
victory of Joe Biden in the US Presidential Election. Its biggest fear is that
the US policy in the Middle East, especially the Israeli-Palestinian conflict
and Iran, is likely to undergo a dramatic sea-change, after Joe Biden
enters the White House in January 2021.
1. Trump’s "Deal
of the Century"
Israel’s biggest fear is that Biden will end any possibility
that Trump’s plan to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, known as “Peace
to Prosperity” or by its nickname as the “Deal of the Century”. The plan had
offered a radical break from past initiatives and allowed Israel to eventually
annex up to 30% of the West Bank and promised to recognize Israeli sovereignty
over most of east Jerusalem. As part of the plan, Trump had also included the
first ever published map of suggested borders for a two-state resolution to the
conflict. The plan was unveiled only in January 2020, with an invitation to the
Palestinians to negotiate, which they rejected. The Trump administration itself
sidelined the initiative this summer in favor of prioritizing Israeli-Arab
normalization deals, with the idea that solving the Israeli-Palestinian
conflict would come at a later stage. Now Israel fears Biden will not adopt it.
2. West Bank annexation
A Biden victory removes any possibly of unilateral West Bank
annexation, even a minor one. Biden will not support it and the Trump
administration is unlikely to move on it during the time it has left, because
his administration promised to suspend it in exchange for normalization deals
with the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. Biden will want any sovereignty
moves to wait until a final status agreement is reached with the Palestinians.
His map of a two-state solution is unlikely to include all the settlements, and
as a result, the fear of future settlement evacuations and a possible
settlement freeze now returns to the discourse. The settlers and the Israeli
Right had warned that the first 10 months of this year represented an
unprecedented window of opportunity to annex the settlements. That window has
now closed.
3. Onus on Israel to
resolve the conflict with the Palestinians
The former Obama administration had held Israel liable for
continuation of the conflict, holding that its continued settlement activity
was a stumbling block to peace. The Trump administration flipped that
calculation. It placed the onus for the conflict on the Palestinian Authority (PA)
for failing to negotiate and for incitement. It held in particular that
terrorism was a stumbling block to peace and took the PA to task for its
continued support of terrorist activity through the payment to individuals
jailed for terror activity and to family members of terrorists. The Trump
administration also divorced settlement activity from the peace process either
with the Palestinians or with Arab states. The onus will now flip back to
Israel to resolve the frozen peace process, with renewed emphasis on the
connection between the peace process and settlement building, which will once
again become a stumbling block to peace.
4. Settlements will
once again be considered illegitimate
Biden is likely to reverse the Trump administration’s
dramatic upending of longstanding US policy, which held that Israeli activity
over the pre-1967 lines in the West Bank and east Jerusalem was illegitimate. The
Trump administration had recognized Israel’s historic and religious rights to
that territory. While it never recognized Israeli sovereignty there, it held
that such settlement activity was not inconsistent with international law and
allowed for the building and expansion of Jewish settlements. To underscore the
deep Jewish roots in the territory, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and US
Ambassador to Israel David Friedman spoke of that area as Judea and Samaria. Concepts
that were eliminated as part of the blanketed US support for all the
settlements, such as settlement blocs, isolated settlements and the pre-1967
lines, will all be resurrected.
5. US embassy in Jerusalem
Biden is among the signatories to the US Embassy Act of 1995
that recognized Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and mandated its embassy be
relocated from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. The embassy was only moved in 2018, under
the Trump administration. During the campaign, Biden said he had no intention
of reversing that move. To date, only the US and Guatemala have embassies in
Jerusalem. The Trump administration has actively campaigned and enticed a small
number of other countries to follow suit. His loss brings an end to that
campaign. It is now unlikely that other countries, even ones who have pledged to
do so, will move their embassies to Jerusalem.
6. Revival of
Palestinian Authority
A Biden win breathes new life into the Palestinian
Authority, which had been on the verge of financial collapse. It’s expected the
Biden administration would restore ties with the Authority that had been
severed during the Trump administration. This would include reopening the PLO
mission in Washington and the US Consulate General in Jerusalem that served the
Palestinians. Biden is expected to restore much of the financial assistance to
both the Palestinians and to the United Nations Relief and Works Agency which
services Palestinian refugees, all of which had been cut by the Trump
administration. The absence of those funds had created a financial crisis that
was compounded by the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as the PA’s decision to
protest Trump’s peace initiatives by refusing to accept the tax revenues which
Israel has collected on its behalf. It had also cut security ties. News of Biden’s
victory allows it to restore security ties with Israel and to receive the tax
revenues.
7. Israeli-Palestinian
negotiations
A Biden administration would likely be able to revive the
frozen Israeli-Palestinian talks by leveraging the shelving of the Trump
administration’s peace plan and any possibility of West Bank annexation to entice
the PA back to the table. It would be difficult for the PA to refuse Biden,
after taking such a harsh step against Trump. PA President Mahmoud Abbas’s age
would also be a factor, he is 85 and can’t afford to wait out the Biden
administration, like he did the Obama and Trump administrations.
8. Israeli-Arab
normalization
Biden supports the Israeli normalization deals with Bahrain,
the United Arab Emirates and Sudan and is expected to work to advance them. But
he is less likely than Trump to be able to advance new ones, since some of the
impetus for the deals was the creation of a regional alliance against Iran.
Still, the basic paradigm shift that divorced Israeli-Arab ties from the fate
of Israel’s conflict with the Palestinians will remain in place.
9. US Israel bonding
Under a Biden administration the United States still stands
with Israel at the United Nations. This show of solidarity has been a main
feature of US policy for at least the last three administrations. The Obama and
Bush administrations stood with Israel at the UN due to the body’s bias against
Israel, even though they philosophically agreed with many of Israel’s
opponents. The Trump administration stood with Israel both on the grounds of
bias and because it philosophically supported Israel on many of the issues. Biden
is more likely to go the way of the Obama and Bush administrations. Biden’s
anticipated elimination of the Trump Administration’s paradigm understanding of
the Israeli-Palestinian conflict will likely weaken the impact of his
administration’s support for Israel at the UN.
10. Iranian deal
Biden victory may reverse the Trump administration’s policy towards
Iran and restores it to that of the Obama administration, which had brokered a
2015 deal to curb Tehran’s nuclear program. Trump withdrew the US from that
deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, between Iran and the six
world powers. It has re-imposed US sanctions on Iran and fought – albeit
unsuccessfully – to restore the international ones as well, including the arms
embargo. Now Biden may work to rejoin and revive the deal, which still has the
support of the other five world powers.