PSX benchmark index sheds 3.23%WoW

Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) witnessed bearish momentum during this past week, with the benchmark Index shedding 5,520 points or 3.23%WoW to close at 166,596 on Friday, May 15, 2026. The average daily trading volume declined 6.3%WoW to 1.1 billion shares.

The key sentiment driver remained the escalating US-Iran conflict, with Brent crude hovering around US$106/ bbl throughout the week, amid blockade of Strait of Hormuz.

Trump termed Iran’s response to the US proposal “unacceptable”, though sentiments improved slightly towards the week-end after US Vice President signaled progress in talks. Pakistan’s mediation efforts drew support from both the US and China.

Pakistan received a US$1.3 billion IMF disbursement under the EFF and RSF programs following completion of the third EFF review and announcement of new performance criteria.

On the macro front, fiscal deficit narrowed to lowest ever of 0.7% of GDP or PKR856 billion in 9MFY26 as compared to 2.6% in same period last year.

Primary surplus rose 18%YoY to PKR4.1 trillion or 3.2% of GDP and petroleum levy collections increased 45%YoY to PKR1.2 trillion during 9MFY26.

In April 2026, Auto sales doubled to 22,000 units, remittances rose 11.4%YoY to US$3.5 billion, taking 10MFY26 inflows to US$33.9 billion, up 8.5%YoY

Foreign exchange reserves held by State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) edged up to US$15.87 billion as of May 08, 2026.

Provisional GDP growth was reported at 3.7% against a target of 4.2%, with per capita income increased to record high of US$1,901, economy size at US$452.1 billion, and public debt at PKR80.5 trillion as of March 2026.

Other major news flow during the week included: 1) Pakistan successfully launched its inaugural US$250 million Panda Bond in China's onshore capital market with 5x oversubscribed at the lowest ever rate of 2.5%, 2) Government aims to keep PKR425 billion in upcoming budget for unforeseen events, 3) Pakistan diverted gas to fertilizer plants amid Hormuz-related supply disruptions, while Qatari LNG cargoes continued arriving through special transit arrangements, 4) Government remains committed to abolishing PKR140 billion gas cross-subsidy by Jane 2027 under IMF structural benchmark, and 5) Pakistan imported 6 million barrels of US crude oil through Cnergyico for the first time.

Top performing sectors were: Leasing Companies, Leather & Tanneries, and Sugar & Allied Industries, while laggards included: Textile Weaving, Textile Composite, and Synthetic & Rayon.

Major selling was recorded by Mutual Funds and Companies of US$8.90 million and US$5.07 million respectively. Major net buyers were Individuals and Brokers with US$14.20 million and US$1.07 million, respectively.

Top performing scrips were: GADT, TRG, PGLC, KEL, and SRVI, while laggards included: KTML, PIOC, AICL, UBL, and FHAM.

Going forward, Iran-US negotiations and international oil price remain the key drivers in the near term, with any easing in Strait of Hormuz tensions serving as a key supportive trigger.

The recent IMF disbursement of US$1.3 billion under EFF and RSF programs, alongside Pakistan's landmark Panda Bond debut, reinforces the improving external financing outlook. Market continues to trade at attractive valuations.

The top picks of AKD Securities include: OGDC, PPL, UBL, MEBL, HBL, FFC, ENGROH, PSO, LUCK, FCCL, INDU, ILP and SYS.

PSX benchmark index posts 6.08%WoW decline

Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) trended negative throughout the week, some recovery was observed during the final trading session. The benchmark index declined by 6,939 points or 6.08%WoW to close at 107,175 level on Friday, May 09 2025.

Notably, Thursday saw the largest single-day decline in the index's history, when the index plunged by 6,482 points or 5.89% amid heightened concerns over regional instability between the two neighboring countries.

On Friday the index recovered 3,648 points or 3.52% on the expectation of the approval of a US$1.0 billion tranche under the first review of the EFF program by the IMF’s Executive Board.

On the macro front, the central bank reduced policy rate by 100 bps to 11%. Workers’ remittances continued their strong trend, rising to US$3.2 billion for April 2025, up 13%YoY).

The budget deficit for 9MFY25 was recorded at PKR3.0 trillion, with the primary balance posting a surplus of PKR3.5 trillion for the same period.

IMF's Executive Board has approved the US$1.0 billion tranche under the first review of the EFF program, alongside approving the new RSF program of US$1.3 billion.

Average daily traded volume was recorded at 508 million shares as compared to 424 million shares a week ago, up 20%WoW).

Foreign exchange reserves held by State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) reserves rose by US$118 million to US$10.3 billion as of May 02, 2025.

Other major news flow during the week included: 1) India cut water supply to Pakistan from Baglihar Dam on Chenab River, 2) Cement sales for April 2025 were recorded at 3.34 million tons, up 8%YoY, 3) S&P Global forecasted more rate cuts in Pakistan, 4) OMC sales in April 2025 increased by 32%YoY, and 5) GoP raised PKR299 billion through PIB auction.

Vanaspati & Allied Industries, Sugar, and Synthetic & Rayon were amongst the top performing sectors, while Transport, Chemical, and Refinery were the laggards.

Major selling was recorded by Mutual Funds and Individuals with a net sell of US$34.9 million. Banks, Companies and other organizations absorbed most of the selling with a net buy of US$31.0 million.

Top performing scrips of the week were: NESTLE, JDWS, IBFL, and MUREB, while laggards included: AGL, SEARL, PTC, and PSX.

According to AKD Securities, market appears to have overreacted to the ongoing escalations, as the development of nuclear capability has significantly reduced the likelihood of full-scale war. The same has been witnessed during escalations since both nations attained nuclear deterrence. During past escalation periods post-nuclear capability, the market has posted an average return of positive 3%. Meanwhile, in 3 months following de-escalation, the market has historically delivered an average return of +5%.

The brokerage house expects the market to rebound with de-escalation of ongoing geopolitical tensions, alongside approval of a US$1.0bn tranche under IMF’s EFF program and US$1.3 billion under new arrangement of RSF.

The brokerage house maintains an ‘Overweight’ stance on Banks, E&Ps, Fertilizer, Cement, OMCs, Autos, Textile, and Technology sectors, as these stand to benefit from monetary easing, structural reforms and reciprocal tariffs.