Pakistan Stock Exchange benchmark index posts 1.9%WoW gain

Pakistan Stock Exchange witnessed bullish sentiments during the first three trading sessions. However, profit-taking by investors resulted in market closing in red during the last two sessions. Still the benchmark index managed to gain 861 points during the week ended on July 15, 2023 and close at 45,068 points, up 1.9%WoW.

Market participation remained healthy with daily traded volume averaging at 352 million shares as compared to an average of 265 million shares during the earlier week up 33%WoW.

The market performance was characterized by the IMF’s executive board’s approval of the SBA (Stand-By Arrangement) and the inflow of US$1.2 billion. Additional support was provided by influx of US$2.0 billion from Saudi Arabia and US$1.0 billion from United Arab Emirates. The inflows would reflect in the next week's reserve numbers held by State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) which are anticipated to cross US$8 billion mark after 9 months. As of July 07, SBP held reserves were reported at US$4.5 billion.  As a result PKR gained 0.11%WoW to close at PKR277.6/ US$ parity.

Other major news flows during the week included: 1) steps taken to broaden tax base, 2) July-May LSMI output declined 9.87%YoY, 3) FY23 remittances fall 13.6%YoY to US$27 billion, 4) car sales plunged 82% in June and 59% in the last financial year, 5) GoP announced to mobilize additional PKR3.2 trillion from power consumers and 6) during Jan-May period 4.88 million mobile phones manufactured in country.

Chemical, Automobile Parts & Accessories, and Leather & Tanneries emerged the top performers. Close-End Mutual Fund, Technology & Communication, and Textile Spinning were amongst the worst performers.

Flow-wise, major net selling was recorded by Mutual Funds with a net sell of US$5.97 million. Individual absorbed most of the selling with a net buy of US$3.93mn.

Top performing scrips were: during the week were: UNITY, HCAR, COLG, PSMC, and AIRLINK, while laggards included: GADT, UPFL, SHEL, PGLC, and TRG.

Stock market is expected to remain positive, owing to growing foreign exchange reserves and consequent improvements in the PKR/ US$ parity.

At present market offers attractive valuation. However, upcoming results may exert pressure on bullish sentiment due to the retrospective imposition of the super tax.

Investors are advised to follow a cautious approach in the selection of scrips and focus on stocks with dollar-denominated revenue streams (Tech and E&Ps) and companies with healthy dividend-yields.

 

 

Pakistan Stock Exchange average daily trading volume increases 16%WoW

The benchmark index of Pakistan Stock Exchange closed the week on March 03, 2023 at 41,337 points, depicting an increase of 1.55% over the course of the week. Participation in the market improved, with daily volumes averaging 159.76 million shares during the week, as compared to 137.89 million shares in the prior week depicting a gain of 15.9%WoW.

The local currency depreciated heavily against the US$ which lead to a negative sentiment in the market midweek. However, a positive market reaction was seen where the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) hiked the policy rate by 300bps to 20% to fulfill the prior condition of IMF for the long awaited staff level agreement to avert sovereign default and secure the US$1.2 billion disbursement.

Foreign exchange reserves held by SBP inched up by US$556 million to US$3.81 billion as on February 24, with the import cover still remaining below a month.

Other major news flows during the week included: 1) Moody's downgrades Pakistan's rating to Caa3; changes outlook to stable from negative, 2) February 2023 CPI jumps to 31.5%, highest rate in nearly 50 years, 3) US$700 million Chinese loan lands in SBP account, 4) 8MFY23 trade deficit narrows 33.18%YoY, 5) RKR2 billion shortfall in February 2023 tax collection and 6) Money supply reaches to PKR30.68 trillion in 7MFY23.

Top performing sectors were: Miscellaneous, Commercial banks, and Woolen, while the least favorite sectors were: Tobacco, Leather and Tanneries, and Property.

Stock-wise, top performers were: PSEL, UBL, BAFL, EPCL, and MEBL, while laggards were: PGLC, SML, PAKT, SRVI, and JVDC.

Flow wise, insurance companies were the major buyers with net buy of US$10.42 million, followed by companies with net buy of US$8.15 million, while foreign investors were major sellers during the week, with a net sell of US$9.48 million.

All eyes on the Staff Level Agreement, Pakistan is in a very critical situation where delays in the 9th Review can’t be tolerated. Any news flow regarding foreign inflows, whether from the IMF or other bi-lateral and multilateral sources, would support the market.

The market may remain jittery in the near future due to higher inflation expected to be driven by hikes in gas tariff and the GST implementation starting to materialize.

The PKR continues its slide against the Greenback and as the open market rate inches upwards there is no clarity as to its limit.

With this backdrop, we continue to advocate scrips that have dollar-denominated revenue streams to hedge against the currency risk, which include the Technology and E&P sectors.