Pakistan: Digitalization and Economic Development

Governor, State Bank of Pakistan, Jameel Ahmad has stated that rapid technological change has not only enabled banks to offer innovative financial services to customers but also empowered regulators to ensure compliance effectively and efficiently through advanced data collection and processing capabilities. He stated this in his keynote address at the 13th Bank of The Future Forum, focusing on the critical theme of ‘The Future of Banking’. The event, organized by Systems Limited, brought together distinguished dignitaries, eminent industry leaders, and fintech experts to discuss the evolving landscape of the banking sector in Pakistan and globally.

The Governor’s address covered many themes and underscored the SBP’s commitment to fostering innovation and digitalization within the banking sector, paving the way for a dynamic financial sector in Pakistan. The Governor shared the SBP’s digital transformation started in 2002, when SBP implemented the Temenos Banking System, and an ERP system for non-banking transactions, as well as a data warehouse for massive data-related requirements. In 2008, SBP implemented the Real-Time Gross Settlement System called PRISM for processing wholesale, large-value, institutional payments. Recently, SBP established its state-of-the-art, Tier-3 data center, the first of its kind in Pakistan.

The Governor shared that in 2008, SBP issued regulations for branchless banking services to enable the delivery of basic banking services from retail stores and kiryana shops. This initiative has resulted in a significant increase in the number of unique bank accounts, from 16% of the adult population in 2018 to 64% in 2024. He shared that in 2022, SBP issued the framework for establishing Digital Banks in Pakistan to further facilitate the entry of IT-enabled, non-banking entities into the financial services industry. As a result, in principle approvals were issued to five applicants who will shortly start pilot operations in the country.

The Governor shared that in line with international trends, SBP started working on transforming its retail payments industry by implementing the state-of-the-art ISO-20022 payment standard. Hence, Raast, our instant payment system based on the ISO 20022 standard, was launched in 2021. In a short span of almost three years, Raast has processed around 850 million transactions valuing over PKR 19 trillion. Today, with 38 million unique Raast IDs, the system processes an average of 2.5 million transactions a day. He shared that SBP is also working on integrating Raast with the Arab Monetary Fund’s instant payment system called Buna to facilitate millions of Pakistanis living in Arab countries in sending their remittances to Pakistan with ease and convenience.

The Governor shared that as a result of SBP’s efforts, today in Pakistan, we have around 59 million branchless banking wallets, 19 million mobile banking apps, another 3.7 million e-money wallets, and 12 million internet banking users. Since 2020, the overall number of retail transactions processed digitally has increased by 30%, and the share of digital payments in total retail payments by volume has risen from 76% in FY23 to 84% in FY24. The number of transactions processed using mobile and internet banking is growing at an annual rate of 70% and 30%, respectively. This is not surprising as the majority of our population is young and adept at using mobile apps.

The Governor shared that it is heartening to see the emergence of a vibrant fintech sector in Pakistan. These fintechs are striving hard to identify new markets and use cases and offer their tech-enabled services. He encouraged the IT sector to play a pivotal role in this transformation.

Global shipping costs are moderating

Lockdowns, labor shortages, and strains on logistics networks led to shipping-cost increases and significantly lengthened delivery times, though those pressures are easing. The Chart of the Week shows global container rates began to pull back from their record in September 2021.

Since then the rates have declined by 16 percent, mostly due to falling rates for trans-Pacific eastbound routes, the main sea link from China to the United States.

According to IMFBlog, shipping costs soared over the past year as the consumers unleashed pent-up savings to buy new merchandise, while the pandemic continued to snarl the world’s supply chains. Container rates have more than quadrupled since the start of the pandemic, with some of the biggest gains concentrated in the first three quarters of last year.

The drop indicates that strong goods demand is diminishing after the traditional peak shipping season, which is typically from August to October. In addition, the US recently ordered some ports to expand operating hours and boost efficiency to reduce congestion and ease supply bottlenecks.

Although rates have subsided, they may remain elevated through the end of the year. Some underlying supply constraints do not have immediate fixes. Backlogs and port delays, labor shortages in related occupations, supply chain disruptions moving inland, and shipping industry challenges such as the slow capacity growth and consolidation that concentrated the market power of a few carriers. If the pandemic is controlled in the future, the demand for tradable goods might gradually decline as some service-providing sectors, such as travel and hospitality, recover.

Higher shipping costs and goods shortages are expected to boost merchandise prices. The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) projects that if freight rates remain elevated through 2023, global import price levels and consumer price levels could rise by 10.6% and 1.5%, respectively. This impact would be disproportionately larger for small, developing islands which heavily rely on imports that arrive by sea.

Higher freight rates will also result in larger increases in the final price of low-value-added products. Smaller developing economies that export many of these goods could become less competitive and face difficulties with their economic recoveries. Moreover, the final prices of products that are highly integrated into global value chains such as electronics and computers will also be more affected by higher freight rates.

Returning to pre-pandemic shipping rates will require greater investment in infrastructure, digitalization in the freight industry, and implementation of trade facilitation measures.