OPEC Plus mulling largest cut since 2020

The OPEC Plus group of oil producers is discussing output cuts of more than one million barrels per day (bpd). Voluntary cuts by individual members could come on top of that, making it their largest cut since 2020.

The group is set to meet on October 05, 2022 in Vienna in person for the first time since March 2020, against a backdrop of falling oil prices and months of severe market volatility which prompted top OPEC Plus producer, Saudi Arabia, to say the group could cut production.

The cartel, which combines OPEC countries and allies such as Russia, has been gradually raising its output target to unwind the record cuts it made in 2020.

Now faces a sharp fall in prices, which have dipped below US$90/barrel from as high as $120 in recent months due to fears about the global economy and a rally in the US dollar after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates.

"It may be as significant as the April 2020 meeting," the source said, referring to when the cartel agreed record supply cuts of around 10 million bpd, or 10% of global supply, as the COVID-19 pandemic slashed demand.

A significant cut is likely to anger the United States, which has been putting pressure on Saudi Arabia to continue pumping more to help oil prices soften further and reduce revenue for Russia as the West seeks to punish Moscow for sending troops into Ukraine.

Saudi Arabia has not condemned Moscow's actions amid difficult relations with the US administration under President Joe Biden.

Last week, a source familiar with Russian thinking said Moscow would like to see OPEC Plus cut its output target by one million bpd or 1% of global supply.

On Sunday, sources said the cut might exceed one million bpd.

On Monday, one OPEC source said voluntary cuts by individual members would come on top of that figure.

It was not yet clear what levels of voluntary cuts Saudi Arabia or any other top Gulf OPEC producers could contribute.

In the past few years, only Saudi Arabia has offered voluntary cuts to give additional boost to the markets.

"My instinct is that if they (OPEC Plus) have suggested a cut and prices are still going down, they will have to do it and a bigger one than they wanted," said Raad Alkadiri, Managing Director at Eurasia Group.

Stephen Brennock at PVM said fears of a demand-sapping recession have rattled OPEC Plus and hence they are set to take preemptive action.

"It must be noted that OPEC Plus is already pumping more than 3 million bpd below its target, hence any further cuts will only exacerbate the existing supply tightness," he said.